Börsipäev 5. veebruar
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Narratiiv, mis aitas veebruari esimestel päevadel vedada aktsiaturgusid, sai eile tagasilöögi kahel rindel. Esiteks tabas naftat uus müügilaine, mis viis WTI -8,7% madalamale 48,45 dollarile, osalt tingitud rekordilise tasemeni kasvanud USA toornaftavarude näitajast. Teiseks viis Euroopa Keskpank USA indeksid sessiooni viimasel tunnil päeva põhja uudisega, et ei aktsepteeri laenutagatisena enam Kreeka valitsuse investeerimisjärguta võlakirju.
Kommertspankadel on jätkuvalt võimalus pöörduda likviidsuse saamiseks Kreeka keskpanga poole, kuid sealgi kehtivad EKP poolt seatud piirangud, mida viimane iga kahe nädala tagant üle vaatab. Mingis mõttes võib seda käsitleda kui kogu eurotsooni karmimat hoiakut Kreeka suhtes, keda tahetakse näha varasemalt kokkulepitud majandusreforme ja kärpekavasid rakendamas.
Järgnevad päevad näitavad, kui kindlalt tunnevad ennast kohalikud hoiustajad pärast eilset uudist ja kas tagajärjeks võib olla kapitali täiendav väljavool. Hinnanguliselt võeti Kreeka pankadest detsembris välja 4 miljardit eurot ning jaanuaris 10 miljardit eurot. Uute laenude väljastamine on seetõttu jaanuaris järsult vähenenud, mis ähvardab omakorda jätta majandust hapnikuta. Seega peamiseks küsimuseks nii sealse pangandussektori kui ka terve riigi jaoks on see, kui kiiresti suudab Kreeka uus valitsus jõuda kokkuleppele täiendavate finantseerimisallikate osas, et likvideerida majandust varjutatavat ebakindlust.
USAs lõpetas S&P 500 indeks -0,4% madalamal. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 sulguda 0,5% plussis, kuid on futuuride kohaselt avanemas täna hommikul miinuspoolel.
Liikudes tänase päeva juurde, siis Kreeka jääb tõenäoliselt põhifookusesse, kui pärast kohtumist Mario Draghiga suundub Kreeka rahandusminister nüüd kõnelustele oma Saksa kolleegi Wolfgang Schäuble’ga. Majandusnäitajatest tulevad avaldamisele Saksamaa detsembrikuu tehaste tellimused ja USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused. Inglise keskpank avaldab intressimääraotsuse, kuid see peaks püsima muutumatuna 0,5% peal.
09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (detsember)
10.30 Rootsi tööstustoodang ja tehaste tellimused (detsember)
14.00 Inglise keskpanga intressimäära otsus
14.00 Venemaa keskpanga kulla ja välisvaluuta reservid
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
15.30 USA kaubandusbilanss (detsember) -
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused tolid tublisti üle ootuste, kasvades MoM detsembris 4,2% (prog 1,5%) ning YoY 3,4% (prog 0,7%). Euro jätkamas tugevnemist dollari suhtes (+0,3% @ 1,1374 ja USA indeksite futuurid on hommikusest -0,3% langusest 0,2% plussi roninud).
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Euroopa Komisjoni optimistlikum nägemus euroala majandusest on eurole tuge pakkumas (dollari vastu +0,8% @ 1,1437). Kas selleks korraks on põhi saavutatud?
EU FORECASTS EURO-AREA CONSUMER PRICES WILL FALL 0.1% IN 2015
EU RAISES 2015 EURO-AREA GDP FORECAST TO 1.3% FROM 1.1% -
BANK OF ENGLAND MAINTAINS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 0.5%
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USA töötu abiraha taotlused kasvasid küll möödunud nädalal, kui mitte nii palju nagu oodati
December Trade Balance -$46.6bln vs -$38.0 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -$39.8 bln vs -$39.0 bln
Continuing Claims 2.400 mln vs 2.388 mln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 2.394mln from 2.385 mln
Initial Claims 278K vs 290K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 267K from 265K -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GLUU +20.6%, (will partner with Katy Perry on the development of a new mobile game ), DATA +16.5%, KIRK +12.7%, INUV +10.7%, EXAR +10.6%, GRA +6.4%, AFOP +6.1%, PRCP +5.6%, NICE +5.3%, LCI +4.6%, GPRE +4.5%, CONN +4.5%, MPWR +4.2%, BLL +4%, SNN +3.9%, CATM +3.4%, LB +3.3%, FORM +3%, BGC +2.4%, LAZ +2.3%, PSEC +1.8%, SNY +1.8%, CX +1.7%, SIRI +1.4%, SNY +1.4%, DNKN +1.3%, PRGO +1.3%, BOOT +1.2%, VMC +1.2%, RRTS +0.9%, WFT +0.9%, TEVA +0.9%
M&A news: HSP +35.3% (Pfizer (PFE) to acquire hospira for $90 a share), BT +5.8% (agrees definitive terms to acquire EE for GBP12.5 bln to create the UK's leading communications provider), PFE +3.1% (to acquire HSP)
Select oil and gas showing strength: HERO +7.4%, CRZO +6.9%, GDP +4.8%, BBEP +4.1%, MPET +3.7%, OAS +3.3%, SDRL +2.4%, BP +1.4%, RDS.A +0.9%
Other news: SMRT +16.4% (announced a $5 per share special dividend) FXCM +9.2% (cont vol pre-mkt), FTR +8.5% (attributed to potential Verizon (VZ) deal to buy its Wireline assets), GENE +7.6% (announced yesterday that its Nasdaq deficiencies had successfully been remediated), RXDX +4.3% (receives orphan drug designation from FDA for Entrectinib for the treatment of molecularly defined subsets of non-small cell lung cancer), NGD +3.9% (reported FY14 gold production of 380,135 ounces; sees FY15 gold production of 390-430k ounces), GALE +3.7% (announces that its partner, Orexo AB, has filed a patent infringement lawsuit in United States District Court against Actavis Laboratories (ACT) and Andrx Corporation), OCN +3.6% (discloses company update, expects to record a loss in the fourth quarter of 2014 and for the total year), TWTR +3% (Bloomberg report Twitter has stuck a deal with Google to make tweets easier to search through the search engine), YNDX +2.1% (released a new app that helps drivers in Moscow find a parking space and pay for the service without leaving their car), SHAK +2.1% (cont vol pre-mkt), SE +2.1% (Spectra Energy and Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) announce 2015 business outlook and financial plan), AST +1.8% (announces public offering of common stock; price and size details not disclosed), GSK +1.7% (following peer SNY earnings), TASR +1.7% (announced the purchase of 700 AXON Flex body cameras as well as 700 five-year Unlimited and RMS Integration licenses to EVIDENCE.com by the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office ), GRPN +1.4% (plans to sell stake in Ticket Monster, according to reports)
Analyst comments: BRCD +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup ), FITB +1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill )
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: QUIK -31.7%, ADEP -25.5%, IRBT -10.4%, GMCR -9.8%, RSTI -9.2%, LFVN -7.5%, IMMU -7%, AXTI -6.5%, FBHS -6.3%, PMT -6.2%, PRU -4.9%, ATML -4.8%, (announces initial quarterly dividend of $0.04/share), FOXA -4.8%, GEOS -4.8%, KORS -4.4%, NUS -4.2%, GIL -4%, (also announces agreement to acquire Comfort Colors for $100 Million), APO -3.4%, CMI -3.3%, EL -2.8%, ALL -2.7%, (also Increases quarterly dividend ), FMC -2.3%, TDC -2.3%, AZN -2%, PRLB -1.6%, UA -1.5%, (announces the acquisition of Endomondo for $85 mln and MyFitnessPal for $475 mln), BCO -1.5%, CHTR -1.3%, ZUMZ -0.9%, (Zumiez reports Jan same store sales +12.3% vs +6.0% Retail Metrics consensus ), CNW -0.9%
Other news: BIND -5.4% (Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Warrants to Purchase Common Stock; details not disclosed, ICPT -3.3% (prices 1 mln shares of its common stock at $176.00 per share), ANTM -3.3% (was victim of cyber attack, according to reports), SABR -3.2% (prices 23.8 mln shares of common stock by existing stockholders affiliated with TPG Global and Silver Lake Management and certain members of Company management at a price of $20.75 per share), MBII -2.9% (Marrone Bio Innovations announces completion of Audit Committee Investigation; update on financial statement review and status of NASDAQ Continued Listing), CASM -2.5% ( intends to offer $8.0 million worth of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), RARE -2.2% (prices 3 mln shares of its common stock at $54.00 per share), NBG -2.1% (Athens stocks down 5% in European trade), XOMA -1.8% (filed for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering; co also also filed for offering of ~12.1 mln shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of warrants) PBR -1.2% (confirmed that Fitch Ratings reviewed Petrobras' debt ratings from BBB to BBB-), TKMR -1% ( announces filing of Definitive Proxy Statement and voluntary delisting from the TSX following the agreement and plan of merger and reorganization with OnCore Biopharma)
Analyst comments: NAV -4% (downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JP Morgan), COST -3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), RL -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), M -1% ( downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), ADP -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital)
Allikas: Briefing.com -
Twitter prelim $0.12 vs $0.06 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $479 mln vs $453.79 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
TWTR kauplemas 5% miinuspoolel, @39 -
LinkedIn prelim $0.61 vs $0.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $643 mln vs $617.34 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
LNKD +3%, @246 -
Pandora Media prelim $0.20 vs $0.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $268 mln vs $276.29 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Pandora Media sees FY15 revs $1.15-1.17 mln vs $1.19 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; Q1 rev $220-225 mln vs. $242 mln consensus
P aktsia saab järelkauplemisel korralikult pihta, kauplemas ligi 20% madalamal.
