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Börsipäev 18. märts

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  • On argumente, miks FED võiks täna õhtul otsustada mitte kiirustada intressimäära tõstmisega, kuid samas räägib tugev taastumine tööturul pigem selle kasuks. Raske on öelda, kumma tee USA keskpank valib ning selge veendumus näib puuduvat ka turul, kus S&P 500 käitus pärast esmaspäevast tugevat tõusu eile taas nõrgemalt ning sulgus -0,3% madalamal.

    Raskete talveolude arvele kirjutatud pettumuste nimekirja lisandus Ühendriikide majandusuudistest ka veebruarikuus alustatud elamuehituste arv, mis kukkus jaanuariga võrreldes -17,0% prognoositud -2,4% asemel. Mis viitab ilmaolude negatiivsele mõjule, on eelkõige see, et lumetormidest enim mõjutatud kirdeosas kukkus näitaja jaanuari baasil -56,5%. Samuti näitas ilmast vähem sõltuv ehituslubade arv hoopis 3,0% kasvu võrreldes oodatud 0,5%ga.

    Kuhjunud kesisema makro tõttu viitab Atlanta FEDi koostatud esimese kvartali SKP mudel nüüd kõigest 0,3% kvartaalsele annualiseeritud kasvule. See on märksa pessimistlikum nägemus võrreldes paljude analüüsimajadega, kelle prognoosid on viimase kuu jooksul oluliselt vähem allapoole tulnud ning näevad ette endiselt ligi 2,5% majanduskasvu. Siit koorub üks põhjus, miks osad arvavad, et FED ei peaks rahapoliitilise toe eemaldamisega kiirustama aga kui FEDi nõukogu liikmed näevad pehmemate näitajate taga vaid ilmast tingitud ajutist negatiivset efekti, ei tohiks see neid takistada jätkamast kursil, mis tooks intressimäära esimese tõstmise juunis.



    Tänase päeva ja selle nädala oodatuim sündmus leiab aset Eesti aja järgi kell 20.00, mil lõppeb USA keskpanga kahepäevane istung eeldatavalt intressimäära samaks jätmisega, ent enim huvitavad turuosalisi infokillud, mis viitavad edasisele trajektoorile. Pool tundi hiljem annab Janet Yellen pressikonverentsi, mille raames leiavad tõenäoliselt paljud põletavad küsimused vastuse. Majandusuudistest väärivad mainimist vaid Suurbritannia jaanuari ja veebruari tööturu statistika. Enne USA turu avanemist avaldab majandustulemused FedEx, kelle kommentaarid globaalse majanduse kohta väärivad tähelepanu.

    11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused (veebruar) ja töötuse määr (jaanuar)
    11.30 Inglise keskpanga eelmise istungi protokoll
    20.00 FOMC intressimäära otsus ja majandusprognoosid
    20.30 Janet Yelleni pressikonverents


  • Hiina 70s suuremas linnas ehitatud uute majade keskmise hinna langus kiirenes veebruaris rekordilise -5,7%ni (jaanuaris -5,1%). Pekingis langes keskmine hind -3,6% vs -3,2% jaanuaris ja Shanghais -4,7% vs -4,2% jaanuaris. Siiani pole märke näha, et keskpanga sammud oleksid kinnisvasektorile mõju avaldanud, kuid statistikaameti sõnul peaksid hinnad näitama märtsis juba märkimisväärset põrget.

    Hiina uute majade keskmise hinna aastane muutus (%)
  • Zara rõivakaubamärgi operaatori, Inditex, puhaskasum kasvas lõppenud majandusaastal 5% Y/Y ehk €2,5 mld peale aastataguse €2,38 mld pealt. Tulemus vastas konsensuse ootusele. Inditexi käive kasvas majandusaastal 8% ehk €18,1 mld peale ning brutokasumi marginaal langes 58,3% peale aastataguse 59,3% pealt. Ettevõtte võrreldavate poodide müügi kasv kiirenes lõppenud majandusaastal 5% peale aastataguse 3% pealt. Aasta jooksul avas jaemüüja 343 uut kauplust 54 turul, kasvatades müügivõrgustiku 88 riigis 6683 poeni. Turgude lõikes aitasid käivet kasvatada müügi paranemine Hispaanias ning laienemine Hiinas ja teistel kiiresti kasvavatel turgudel. Ettevõte plaanib tõsta ka majandusaasta dividendi 7,5% Y/Y ehk €0,52 peale aktsia kohta (dividendimäär 1,8%).

  • Saksamaa valitsus kergitas majanduskasvu ootust

    German Govt upgrades 2015 GDP growth to 1.5% (from 1.3%) - sees 1.6% next - according to Dow Jones.
  • Kui BofAML küsitles globaalseid varahaldureid jaanuaris, vastas 18%, et nad sooviksid järgmise 12 kuu jooksul olla Euroopa aktsiates overweight, värskeimas küsitluses oli see osakaal kasvanud 63%ni. QE on aidanud märkimisväärselt tõsta majanduskasvu ootust ja koos sellega ka ettevõtete kasumikasvu prognoose, kergitades varahaldurite Euroopa aktsiate allokatsiooni rekordtasemete juurde, samal ajal aga on vähenenud USA positsioonid madalaimale tasemele alates 2008.a

    “Bullishness towards European stocks has reached uncharted territory,” said Manish Kabra, a European equity and quantitative strategist in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team.
  • Saksamaa aktsiaturg on veidi ette rutanud? All on toodu mõnede analüüsimajade DAXi 2015.a lõpu sihid
  • Suurimate rallijate seas olnud Euroopa autotööstus on teist päeva väga punane: Renault kahe päevaga -7%, BMW -5%, Daimler -6%

    Stoxx 600 autotööstuse indeks
  • BMW aktsia negatiivne reaktsioon näitab, et turg näis ihkavat enamat

    BMW Reiterates Automotive Ebit Margin Goal of 8%-10%
    •BMW sees ‘solid’ 2015 pretax profit vs ‘significant’ in 2014.
    • CFO says 2015 free cashflow target more than EU3b
    • China market normalization to continue
    • CEO says slower China growth to affect carmakers
    • Expects North America positive demand
    • Slight recovery in Europe to continue
    • CFO says r&d 2014 spending EU4.6b, 5.7% of revenue
    • CFO says 2015 r&d spending to be 5%-5.5% of revenue

  • Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused kahanesid veebruaris -31 tuhande võrra, veidi rohkem kui oodatud -30K aga töötuse määr jäi jaanuaris püsima 5,7% peale (oodati 5,6%). Kolme kuu keskmine nädalatasu YoY kasv (ilma boonusteta) aeglustus 1,7% pealt 1,6% peale.
  • FedExilt oodatust parem kolmanda kvartali kasum, kuid käive jäi konsensuse ootusele alla. Samuti kärbiti 2015. aasta kasumiprognoosi ootust. Aktsia eelturul -0,3% madalamal @ $175.20

    • FedEx sees 2015 EPS $8.80-$8.85, saw $8.50-9; consensus $8.97
    • Q3 revenue $11.7 bln vs. $11.3 bln; consensus $11.8 bln
    • Q3 EPS $2.01 vs. $1.23 a year ago; consensus $1.88

  • Oodatust tugevam majanduskasv neljandas kvartalis ja tagasi inflatsioonilisse keskkonda jõudmine ei ole Rootsi keskpanga jaoks piisavaks argumendiks.

    RIKSBANK CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO -0.25%. *RIKSBANK PLANS TO BUY GOVT BONDS FOR SK30 BLN
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LEJU +19.5%, FRSH +17%, WIX +10.1%, AEZS +9.2%, ZQK +8.8%, TENX +6.1%, EJ +4.7%, ENTL +4.2%, BONE +4%, CPXX +2.9%, CBRX +2.8%, ORCL +2.4%, NVGS +1.4%, MCUR +0.8%

    M&A news: VTSS +38% (Microsemi (MSCC) to acquire co for $5.28 per share), RXDX +27% (Ignyta and Teva announce acquisition by Ignyta of four oncology R&D assets from Teva in exchange for 1.5 mln shares (6%) of Ignyta's common stock), TWX +1.4% (Bloomberg discusses future of CBS, media M&A; CEO Moonves held talks with TWX CEO Bewkes last year, but he wasn't interested); MSCC +3.4% (VTSS merger and guidance)

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +1.7%, E +1.6%, RIG +1.4%, RDS.A +1.2%, STO +0.9%

    Other news: NVGN +40.9% (confirms that one of its oncology pipeline drug candidates, Anisina (ATM-3507), has achieved a major milestone in its development), RTRX +31.9% (confirms that the FDA has approved Cholbam capsules), VRML +30.1% (disclosed that on March 11, 2015, it entered into three agreements with Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX); a Global Settlement Agreement and Mutual Release, a Testing and Services Agreement and a Non-Exclusive License Agreement ), MTL +21.4% (attributed to report that co and VTB are discussing debt restructuring), ATNM +12.2% (announces new data from ongoing Phase 1/2 trial of Actimab-A), AKRX +7.4% (announces filing of 10-K for year ended December 31, 2014; in addition to second and third quarter 2014 financial statements), NETE +6.9% (will acquire PayOnline), HLF +6% (seeing reports that co has received a favorable court ruling), SNE +4.7% (cont strength following yday's guidance), CANF +4.1% (completed the development of a commercial predictive biomarker blood test kit for the A3 adenosine receptor), JBL +3.7% (likely related to VTSS/MSCC merger), CRH +2.7% (may be related to Holcim / Lafarge news), VRTX +2.3% (receives U.S. FDA approval of KALYDECO for children with Cystic Fibrosis), HUBS +1.9% (prices 4,114,486 common shares at a price to the public of $37.00 per share), ACOR +1.9% (favorable commentary on Tuesday's Mad Money), MU +1.7% (hearing Samsung (SSNLF) to delay DRAM orders, positive for MU pricing environment), CIM +1.6% (announced that the Board has approved a reverse stock split of Chimera's outstanding shares of common stock at a ratio of 1-for-5; increased quarterly dividend to $0.096/share from $0.09/share), AMCC +1.4% (likely related to VTSS/MSCC merger)

    Analyst comments: MNRO +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), GNCA +2.5% (initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray), P +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Fair Value at CRT Capital)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FPRX -7.2%, ADBE -4.5%, MTZ -3.6%, STLD -3.1%, OXGN -2.9%, EKSO -1.5%, ATU -1.2%, FOMX -1%, FDX -0.9%

    M&A news: BGC -3.8% (Reuters reported after hours Prysmian (PRYMF) spokesperson denying speculation in talks with General Cable; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts), BBX -2.1% (BBX Capital Issues Statement Regarding BFC Financial Corporation Announcement of Cash Tender Offer for Shares of BBX Capital Class A Common Stock; Special Committee expects to retain a financial advisor and has retained Hogan Lovells US LLP as its legal advisor)

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: CLF -7.9%, MT -2.2%, RIO -2%, FCX -1.6%

    Other news: WG -30.1% (announces that it is filing a Form 12b-25 Notification of Late Filing with the SEC with regard to its Annual Report on Form 10-K), NKTR -14.7% (Nektar Therapeutics: Etirinotecan Pegol (NKTR-102) Prolonged Median Overall Survival by 2.1 Months versus Active Control in Patients with Advanced Breast Cancer in Phase 3 Study; Trial Did Not Achieve Statistical Significance ), NBG -12.3% (cont uncertainty in Greece), RSPP -5.6% (prices 5,000,000 shares of its common stock by the Company and 4,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain of the Company's stockholders at $25.80 per share), CYTX -5.3% (entered into Amendment One to the Securities Purchase Agreement between it and certain institutional investors dated October 8, 2015), ANTH -3.4% (announces proposed public offering of common stock; size and price details not disclosed ), SD -3.2% (cont weakness), CRR -3.1% (cuts quarterly dividend by 70% to $0.10/share, down from $0.33/share), ESI -2.5% (filed to delay FY14 Form 10-K), JKS -2.3% (unfavorable commentary on Tuesday's Mad Money; also has signed a strategic project development agreement with China Development Bank Leasing), ESPR -1.6% (following yesterday's 22 pt move higher), APP -1.3% (files to delay FY14 Form 10-K due to ongoing discussions with Standard General regarding revolving credit facility), BABA -1.2% (IPO lock-up exprires today), QGEN -1.2% (modest weakness following recent advance), NPO -0.9% (recently purchased for cash ~$21.3 mln in aggregate principal amount of its 3.9375% Convertible Senior Debentures due 2015 in a privately negotiated transaction)

    Analyst comments: NAV -3.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), USG -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), IRBT -2.1% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), FLIR -1.5% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), RYI -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), STJ -1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), ING -1% (removed from Alpha List at Berenberg), MELI -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • FED likvideeris sõnastusest lubaduse jääda rahapoliitika normaliseerimisel kannatlikuks, kuid pehmemad prognoosid ja kommentaarid inflatsiooni kohta viitavad intressimäära aeglasemale tõstmise tsüklile

    FED DROPS PATIENT STANCE ON INTEREST-RATE RISE GUIDANCE
    FED SAYS ECONOMY `HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT,' JOB MARKET IMPROVED
    FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.3%-2.7% VS 2.6%-3% DEC. EST
    FED WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION FOR LIFTOFF

    FED: MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE 0.625% END-2015 VS 1.125% DEC. EST.
  • FEDi värsked prognoosid võrreldes detsembri omadega
  • Vinge kolmemõõtmeline kujutis Saksamaa valitsuse võlakirja tulususte muutumisest läbi aja ja kurvi
  • Arvestades seda, kui ühesuunaline on siiamaani EUR/USD liikumine olnud, tundub ukse juures hetkel kitsaks minevat (EUR/USD 1,7% @ 1,0780)

    "It's about time the US joined the currency war" - Bill Gross @CNBC
  • Yellen on rohkem dovish kui arvati

    Fed's Yellen: New guidance doesn't necessarily mean rate rise in June; but she doesn't rule out June rate increase.
    Fed's Yellen: Rate liftoff will depend on assessment of incoming data; removing "patient" doesn't mean Fed will be impatient
    Fed's Yellen: FOMC sees inflation quite low this year.
    Fed's Yellen: Dollar's rise will mean inflation lower for longer; Fed will monitor inflation developments carefully.
    Fed's Yellen: Fed expects growth to support more job gains; export growth looks to have weakened.
    Fed's Yellen: Labor force partition rate is below trend.
    Fed's Yellen: Slack in labor market continues to diminish; wage growth remains sluggish, weakness persists.
    Fed's Yellen: Fed is seeing continued improvement on job gains; broader measures of job market also improved.

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