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Börsipäev 21. aprill

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  • Reedene langus võis küll lüüa karude vere käima, kuid ilmselt on aastate jooksul juba õpitud, et keskpankade poliitikast mõjutatud turgudel ei tähenda maas lamav vastane veel kerget saaki. Sentiment tegi eile Euroopa ja Ühendriikide aktsiaturgudel 180kraadise pöörde peamiselt tänu Hiina keskpanga otsusele leevendada kohustuslikku reservimäära ning vabastada sellega kohaliku majanduse jaoks ligi 200 miljardit dollarit. Toetavalt mõjusid ka mitmete ettevõtete oodatust paremad majandustulemused eesotsas Morgan Stanley, Halliburtoni ja lelude tootja Hasbroga. S&P 500 sulgus 0,9% kõrgemal, Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 0,8% plusspoolel.

    Negatiivsemate liikumiste vallas oli Kreeka aktsiaturg, mille indeks alanes -0,1% ning valitsuse 10a võlakirja tulusus hüppas 12,9% pealt 13,29% peale, muutes erinevuse Saksa valitsuse sama võlakirjaga suurimaks pea kahe ja poole aasta jooksul. Õhtul jõudsid meediasse uudised, et Kreeka valitsus on palunud avaliku sektori kehadel, sh kohalikel omavalitsustel, kanda keskpanka oma rahareservid, mis näitab, kuivõrd keerulises finantsseisus on riigi avalik sektor, mis peab kuu lõpus katma ligi kahe miljardi euro suuruse palkade ning pensionite makse ja tagastama lähinädalatel IMFile ligi miljardi euro suuruse laenu.

    Kreeka ja Saksamaa valitsuste 10a võlakirjade tulususte erinevus (baaspunkti)


    Ehkki reedel toimuval euroala rahandusministrite istungil ei oodata läbimurret kokkuleppes Kreekaga, mis vabastaks riigile järgmise laenueraldise, ütles Euroopa Keskpanga asepresident Vitor Constancio, et Kreeka jääb eurotsooni liikmeks ning keskpangas ollakse selles veendunud. Täiendavalt ütles Mario Draghi Euroopa Keskpanga 2014.a aruandes, et euroala majanduskasv kogub hoogu ning inflatsioon jõuab keskpanga sihitud 2% lähedale „ilma lubamatu viivituseta“.

    Ka tänane makrokelder ei paku midagi väga põrutavat, kui ainsana võiks välja tuua Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute aprillikuu sentimendi uuringu tulemuse. Majandustulemused avaldavad teiste seas Baker Hughes, DuPont, Harley-Davidson, Kimberly-Clark, Fifth Third Bancorp, Northern Trust, Lockheed Martin, Under Armour, Stryker, United Technologies, Verizon Communications, Travelers, Amgen, Yahoo!, Broadcom, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Yum! Brands, Discover Financial Services, Credit Suisse Group, Akzo Nobel, SAP, Sky Plc, TeliaSonera, ARM Holdings.

    10.30 Rootsi töötuse määr (märts)
    12.00 Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeksid (aprill)
    12.00 Eurotsooni valitsuste võla ja SKP suhe (2014)

    USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, Eurostoxx 50 futuurid viitavad avanemisele 0,3% plussis.
  • JPMorgan kirjutab, et isegi kui USA majandus kasvas esimeses kvartalis QoQ annualiseeritud tempol 0,9%, siis aastatagusega võrreldes tähendaks see ikkagi võrdlemisi korralikku 3,2% kasvu (mäletatavasti avaldas ka toona lumine talv majandusaktiivsusele tugevat mõju), mida veab just erasektor.

    Because of weakness in the first quarter of last year, even if real GDP grew by just 0.9% in the first quarter, on a year-over-year basis this would be 3.2% which would actually be the strongest year-over-year number in nine years. In addition, there may be some weather effects in the first quarter, although to a lesser extent that in the first quarter of last year. Moreover, the go-slow among west coast dockworkers may be responsible for an artificial weakening in our net export position. Finally, early numbers suggest that government spending was puzzlingly weak in the first quarter. All told, if overall GDP grew by 0.9% annualized in the first quarter, private sector domestic GDP could have risen by 2.4% – right in line with the mediocre growth rate that has characterized this expansion from the start.
  • Näib, et Euroopa Keskpank ei taha lõputult Kreeka pankadele likviidsusabi pakkuda, mis ehk survestab poliitilisel tasandil lahendusi kiiremini leidma

    ECB SAID TO STUDY CURBS ON GREEK BANK SUPPORT AS UNEASE GROWS
    GROWING MINORITY OF ECB GOVERNORS SAID TO OPPOSE GREEK ELA


    eelmine nädal via Reuters:

    The European Central Bank raised the cap on emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) that Greek banks can draw from the country's central bank by 800 million euros, taking the ELA ceiling to 74 billion euros, a banking source told Reuters on Tuesday."Greek banks have used up about 70 billion euros of ELA funding so there is a margin of 4 billion left," the source said, declining to be named.
  • Primarki rõivakaubamärgi omaniku, Associated British Foods (-2,2% @ 2801 penni), esimese poolaasta korrigeeritud maksude-eelne kasum vähenes 3,8% Y/Y ehk 450 mln naela peale. Naela tugevnemise tõttu ootab ettevõte ka majandusaasta korrigeeritud kasumilt mõõdukat vähenemist võrreldes aastatagusega. Ettevõtte puhaskasum vähenes poolaastal 63% Y/Y ehk 124 mln naela peale. ABFi käive kasvas samal ajal 0,6% Y/Y ehk 6,25 mld naela peale. Kolmandiku käibest moodustavad Primarki müük kasvas poolaastal 12% Y/Y ehk 2,55 mld naelani.

    Aktsia viimase 12-kuu tootluseks on +2,9%
  • Hämmastav kuidas ESi futuuri ostetakse nõnda vara ilma eriliste uudisteta juba püstiloodis üles
  • Stoxx 600 on IT sektori eestvedamisel pikendamas tõusu teise päeva ning kaupleb 0,45% kõrgemal.
  • Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute küsitluse tulemusel selgus, et jooksvat majanduslikku olukorda hinnati aprillis kõrgemini kui märtsis (indeksi väärtus paranes 55,1 punkti pealt 70,2 punktile, lüües konsensuse 56,5 prognoosi), kuid järgmise kuue kuu väljavaate osas ollakse pisut skeptilisemad (indeksi väärtus alanes 54,8 punkti pealt 53,3 punktile, jäädes alla konsensuse 55,3punktisele prognoosile).

    "Basically, they are not super-optimistic in terms of getting GDP much higher than we had before," said ZEW economist Dominik Rehse, after the think tank's monthly survey showed the mood deteriorated in April for the first time since October.

    Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeksid (jooksev hinnang = valge, kuue kuu ootuste hinnang = oranž)
  • Eurotsooni valitsused suutsid eelmisel aastal vähendada eelarve puudujääki absoluutmahus ning ka suhtena SKPst, mis alanes -2,9% pealt -2,4% peale. Defitsiidi finantseerimine laenuga viis kõrgema võlakoormani, mis kerkis 2014.a eurotsoonis 90,9% pealt 91,9% peale. Allikas Eurostat

    Eelarve tasakaalu statistika Euroopa Liidus: In 2014, Denmark (+1.2%), Germany (+0.7%), Estonia and Luxembourg (+0.6% each) registered a government surplus, and the lowest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded in Lithuania (-0.7%), Latvia (-1.4%) and Romania (-1.5%). Twelve Member States had deficits higher than 3% of GDP: Cyprus (-8.8%), Spain (-5.8%), Croatia and the United Kingdom (both -5.7%), Slovenia (-4.9%), Portugal (-4.5%), Ireland (-4.1%), France (-4.0%), Greece (-3.5%), Belgium, Poland and Finland (all -3.2%).

    Võlakoorma suhe SKPst: At the end of 2014, the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP were recorded in Estonia (10.6%), Luxembourg (23.6%), Bulgaria (27.6%), Romania (39.8%) and Latvia (40.0%). Sixteen Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP, with the highest registered in Greece (177.1%), Italy (132.1%), Portugal (130.2 %), Ireland (109.7%), Cyprus (107.5%) and Belgium (106.5%).
  • Marc Faber jagab veidi pikemalt oma mõtteid Hiinast: Link
    “I wouldn’t be too worried about the problems in China for the near-term. I think it’s solvable. Hopefully, it is painful because the society needs some pain from time to time, then the economy takes off again.”
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FTNT +10.9%, LRCX +9.7%, HLX +8.1%, MTG +4.8%, ARMH +4.1%, KMB +4.1%, MLNX +4%, JAKK +3.6%, SAP +2.3%, MAN +1.5%, UTX +1.2%, SNV +1.1%, NTRS +1.1%

    M&A news: MYL +7.1% (Teva (TEVA) may make a bid for MYL as soon as today, according to Bloomberg, while Times of India reports on possible MYL $5 bln investment in Andhra Pradesh's pharma sector), ALU +3.9% (cont vol surrounding merger with NOK), NOK +3.2% (cont vol surrounding merger with ALU), TEVA +2.8%

    Other news: IBIO +12.7% (cont strength), BCLI +10.7% (to present results from its phase 2a study of NurOwn in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis), ALNY +8.7% (announces one year clinical data from its phase 2 OLE study of Patisiran), AMSC +8.5% (announced U.S. Navy's intention to order High Temperature Superconductor equipment), LRE +7.9% (Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR) announces deal to Acquire LRR Energy for $539 mln), CHL +4.7% (China/HK mkts strong over night), INO +4% (Inovio Pharma and Roche (RHBBY) initiate clinical trial for Inovio's DNA immunotherapy to treat chronic hepatitis b infection), BCRX +4% (still checking), FEYE +3.7% (FireEye and HP (HPQ) announce a partnership to make incident response, compromise assessment and threat detection offerings available to HP Enterprise Services' most strategic clients globally), EVEP +3.2% (John B. Walker, Executive Chairman of EV Management, disclosed 5.4% active stake in 13D filing), PPHM +2.8% (announces preclinical data regarding Phosphatidylserine presented), NVO +2.7% (still checking), SPNS +1.9% (announces announces $7.2 mln dividend), NVS +1.6% (reports data at AAN showing Gilenya high efficacy in achieving 'no evidence of disease activity' in previously-treated highly-active MS patients), PCTI +1.4% ( announces its Board of Directors authorized the re-purchase of 500,000 shares), CHU +1.2% (reports operational statistics for the month of March 2015)

    Analyst comments: BCRX +9.4% (initiated with a Outperform at FBR Capital), LJPC +8.3% (initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer), ALGN +4.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), SNTA +3.8% (initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital), CYTR +3.5% (initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital), GERN +3.4% (initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer), WUBA +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), RUBI +2.7% (initiated with a Outperform at Raymond James ), LL +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), ECA +2.4% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), BMY +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $80 from $60), CGEN +1.8% (initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer), FR +0.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SANM -10.5%, HOG -6.8%, FTK -6.1%, IEX -5.9%, UCTT -5.7%, BMI -4.3%, PKG -3.3%, UA -3.2%, TCK -2.4%, STLD -2.1%, AMTD -1.7%, CS -1.6%, TRV -1.3%, ZION -0.9%, BHI -0.8%

    M&A news: IEX -5.9% (announced an agreement to acquire 100% of Novotema shares), PRGO -2.9% (negative response to MYL/TEVA merger spec -- MYL rumored to buy PRGO)

    Other news: NVGN -24.7% (shares were halted in Australia for the announcement of a rights offering and private placement), NBG -10.2% (still checking), NQ -7.5% (announces that Omar Khan, current Co-CEO, has decided to transition to an advisory role and step down in his capacity as Co-CEO), ALDX -6.6% (filed for 3 mln share offering of common stock), BAM -4.2% (announces US$1,075 million equity offering), PRGO -2.9% (negative response to MYL/TEVA merger spec -- MYL rumored to buy PRGO), RIO -1.8% (announces a Q1 production update; also downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), NRX -1.7% (filed for $34.5 mln offering of common stock), MT -1.7% (in symp with RIO), DEG -1.3% (JP Morgan Asset Mgmt notifies co that it now owns less than 3% of Delhaize Group's voting rights), HRL -0.9% (announced highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza has been detected at multiple turkey farms that supply Jennie-O Turkey Store; co reaffirmed FY15 guidance)

    Analyst comments: SHAK -3.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel), RJET -1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI), MAT -0.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Argus)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill prelim $3.88 vs $3.65 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.09 bln vs $1.11 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    CMG kasumi osas ületab ja käibe osas jääb ootustele alla.
    Aktsia järelkauplemisel -5%, @657
  • Yahoo! prelim $0.15 vs $0.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.04 bln vs $1.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    YHOO kauplemas -1%

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