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Börsipäev 10. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Esimesel kauplemistunnil jäi mulje, et müüjad on valmis USA aktsiaturgu neljandat päeva järjest madalamale suruma, kuid indeksid suutsid sessiooni põhjadest üsna kiiresti toetust leida. Edasi oli ostjatel aga katalüsaatorite leidmisega raskusi ning leppida tuli S&P 500 indeksi 0,04% muutusega.

    Euroopas lõpetasid aktsiaturud kuuendat päeva punases (Stoxx 600 langes -0,4%). Valitsuste võlakirjade tulusused jätkasid ülespoole liikumist (Saksamaa valitsuse 10a võlakirja tulusus kerkis 7 baaspunkti võrra 0,95%ni, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 2014.a septembrist) vaatamata sellele, et Kreeka värskelt esitatud täiendused eelmisel nädalal välja käidud plaanile lükati ELi ametnike poolt taaskord tagasi, kuna Bloombergi kohaselt olid need varasemate ettepanekute hägused ümbertöötlused, mida ei hinnatud adekvaatseks fiskaalseisu parandamisel.

    Majandusnäitajate valik jäi eile tagasihoidlikuks. Euroopas kinnitati eurotsooni esimese kvartali SKP 0,4% kvartaalne muutus ning Ühendriikides näitas JOLTS tööturu küsitlus, et vabade töökohtade arv kasvas aprillis 5,4 miljonini, mis on kõrgeim tase alates 2000.a, mil küsitlust hakati koostama ning kinnitab tööturu jätkuvat tugevnemist pärast pehmemat esimest kvartalit.

    Vabade töökohtade arv Ühendriikide majanduses (tuhandetes)


    Aasias kauplesid aktsiaturud valdavalt kerges plussis. Jaapani Nikkei indeksi 0,3% tõusu aitas toetada masinate tellimuste 3,8% kuine kasv aprillis, üllatades positiivselt analüütikuid, kes arvasid, et pärast märtsi 2,9% tõusu võiks aprill tuua -2,1% languse. Aastatagusega võrreldes kiirenes kasv 2,6% pealt 3% peale ning annab lootust, et esimese kvartali SKPd toetanud ettevõtete investeeringud aitavad hoida majandusel hoogu sees ka teises kvartalis.

    Hiina aktsiaturud olid päeva esimeses pooles surve all, kuid hiljem veeti Shanghai Composite tagasi plussi. Kerget nördimust tekitas MSCI otsuse lükata edasi riigi aktsiate lisamine MSCI arenevate turgude indeksisse, mis suurendaks väliskapitali voolu kümnete miljardite dollarite võrra. MSCI kohaselt tuleb neil eelnevalt lahendada mõned aktsiaturu juurdepääsu küsimused aga kohe kui probleem on ära klaaritud, liigutakse plaaniga edasi ning selleks ei pea ootama iga-aastast indeksite klassifitseerimise ülevaadet.

    Liikudes tänase börsipäeva juurde, siis peamise fookuse all saab jätkuvalt olema Kreeka, kelle peaminister kohtub Brüsselis toimuva tippkohtumise kõrvalt Saksamaa kantsleri Angela Merkeli ja Prantsusmaa presidendi François Hollande’ga. Majandusnäitajatest avaldatakse erinevate Euroopa riikide aprillikuu tööstustoodangu muutused (Soome, Prantsusmaa, Rootsi, Itaalia ja Suurbritannia) ning USA valitsuse maikuu eelarve puudujäägi suurus.

    09.00 Soome tööstustoodang (aprill)
    09.45 Prantsusmaa tööstustoodang ja tehaste tellimused (aprill)
    10.00 Taani inflatsioon (mai)
    10.30 Rootsi tööstustoodang (aprill)
    11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodang (aprill)
    11.00 Norra inflatsioon (mai)
    11.30 Suurbritannia tööstustoodang (aprill)
    15.00 Brasiilia inflatsioon (mai)
    21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve tasakaal (mai)

  • Hiina keskpank kärbib majandusprognoose, uskudes et teine poolaasta toob taastumise

    PBOC Lowers 2015 GDP growth est to 7.0% from 7.1%
    PBOC Lowers 2015 Exports Forecast To 2.5% (prev 6.9%)
    PBOC Lowers 2015 Imports Forecast To -4.2% (prev +5.1%)
    PBOC Lowers 2015 PPI Forecast To -4.2% (prev -0.4%)
    PBOC Lowers 2015 Retail Sales Forecast To 10.7% (prev 12.2%)
    PBOC Lowers 2015 Inflation Forecast To 1.4% (prev 2.2%)
  • Soome hooajaliselt korrigeerimata tööstustoodang kahanes aprillis -4,0% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga, marginaalne paranemine võrreldes märtsi -4,8% langusega.
  • Jaapani keskapnga juht Kuroda viitab lühikese aja jooksul juba teist korda, et QE-eelne jeeni üleliigne tugevnemine on nüüdseks ära korrigeerunud. Kas jutt käib lihtsalt õiglasest vahetuskursi tasemest või võiks siit välja lugeda rahapoliitilist vihjet, et keskpank pole nõnda aldis rahatrükki suurendama nagu osad turul arvavad.

    KURODA: BOJ ASSET PURCHASES NOT FOR FINANCING GOVERNMENT DEBT
    KURODA: WEAK YEN AFFECTS DIFFERENT PARTS OF ECONOMY DIFFERENTLY
    KURODA: WEAK YEN HAS BEEN PLUS FOR JAPAN ECONOMY OVERALL
    KURODA: EXCESSIVE YEN GAINS HAVE BEEN CORRECTED
    KURODA: HARD TO SEE YEN'S REAL EFFECTIVE RATE FALLING FURTHER
    KURODA: BOJ ISN'T PLANNING TO CONTINUE QQE FOREVER
    KURODA: QQE ISN'T ON CALENDAR-BASED SCHEDULE
    KURODA: QQE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2% INFLATION STABLE


    USD/JPY
  • David Rosenbergi arvates muretsetakse pullituru lõppemise pärast üleliia palju, kuna tsükkel lõppeb majandussurutisega, millele võlakirjade tulususte kõver hetkel ei viita. Pigem annab külgsuunas liikumine aega ettevõtete aktsiakasumitel järele jõuda nii nagu 1994, 2004 ja 2011.

    There is an over-riding opinion out there that the stock market rally from the 2009 lows was fuelled completely by financial engineering. Well, that could be partly true but let’s face it, the economy has been in expansion and Fed policy has been accommodative. This always coincides with a ripping bull market.
    Now we have an expanding economy and a Fed that has moved to the sidelines. This no longer coexists with double-digit advances in the stock market and the S&P 500 is typically rising in the mid to high single digits in this part of the cycle — the market trades heavy but the fundamental bull phase is intact.
    We also had flattish market performances in 1994, 2004, and 2011 and they did represent the end of the bull market but were pauses that allowed the “E” (earnings) to catch up to the “P” (price).
    The cycle only ends with recession and the recession only begins with a flat or inverted yield curve. It has always been such and no, it is not different this time.
  • Prantsusmaa tööstustoodang kahanes aprillis -0,9% võrreldes märtsiga, osutudes nõrgemaks kui analüütikute prognoositud +0,4%. Töötlevas tööstuses polnud pilt parem, kuna seal kahanes toodang MoM -1,0% oodatud 0,2% kasvu asemel ning näitas aastatagusega võrreldes -0,4% langust (oodati 0,5%). PMI järgi peaks mai siiski tooma positiivsemaid uudiseid (kollane joon)
  • Maailma suurima riiete jaemüüja, Inditex (-0,1% @ €29,97), esimese kvartali puhaskasum kasvas viimase kahe aasta kiireimas tempos - sellele aitas kaasa nii uute poodide avamine kui ka euro nõrgenemine. Inditexi puhaskasum kasvas lõppenud kvartalis 28% Y/Y ehk 521 mln euroni, ületades konsensuse €505 mln suurust ootust. Ettevõtte käive kasvas kvartalis 17% Y/Y ehk €4,4 mld peale, ületades samuti konsensuse €4,3 mld suurust ootust. Sealhulgas kasvas võrreldavate poodide müük kõikides regioonides. Inditexi brutokasumi marginaal paranes 59,4% peale 58,9% pealt. Kvartalis avati uusi kauplusi 27-riigis, mis suurendas müügivõrgustiku 6746 poeni 88 riigis.

    Viimase 12-kuu jooksul on Inditexi aktsia rallinud 38,8%
  • Itaalia tööstustoodang osutus samuti oodatust nõrgemaks, kui märtsiga võrreldes kahanes toodang -0,3% (prognoositi 0,3%). Tööpäevadega korrigeeritud tööstustoodang kasvas aprillis aastatagusega võrreldes vaid 0,1% vs oodatud 1,0%.
  • BAML strateegid usuvad, et korrektsiooni järel on riski tulu suhe muutunud Euroopa aktsiaturgudel atraktiivsemaks

    “We were urging investors to be cautious in April,” Mr. Barty and Mr. Ricketts write. “Now we think that the risks are starting to be more favorable for an entry point into European equity markets.”
    “With the DAX now 10% off its April high, we believe markets offer a better risk-reward profile,” equity strategists James Barty and Tommy Ricketts at the U.S. bank write in a note. “Should an agreement be reached on Greece, we would expect a sharp rally of the order of 5%.”
    Even in the event of what they call a Greek “accident”, they see the downside risk for equities elsewhere as limited, because the ECB is “able to intervene to limit the risk of contagion.”
  • Saksamaa parlamendi suurima erakonna CDU liikme Michael Fuchsi sõnul on läbirääkimised Kreekaga endiselt väga keerulises seisus

    German CDU’s Fuchs Describes Greece Talks As ‘Very Difficult’
    -Says Greece’s Current Offer Is 'Non-Negotiable'
    -Plan Must Contain Primary Surplus
    -If IMF Pulls Out, Germany Will Too
    German CDU’s Fuchs Says There Is Still No Decent Proposal Greece
    CDU senior lawmaker Fuchs says current Greek proposals are not serious
    German CDU's Fuchs: Doesn't Think The Euro Will Fail Without Greece
  • Eurotsoonis oodatakse esimest intressimäära tõstmist 2017.a mais vs loetud kuud Ühendriikides. Nõnda suured käärid peaksid aitama takistada EUR/USDi puhul suuremaid rallisid, kuid samuti on näha, et intressimäära ootused on eurotsoonis oluliselt volatiilsemad kui Ühendriikides (veel aasta alguses usuti, et EKP ei tõsta intressimäära enne 2019.a)
  • Suurbritannia tööstustoodang kasvas aprillis MoM 0,4% vs oodatud 0,1% (lisaks revideeriti märtsi muutus 0,5% pealt 0,6% peale), kuid seda vedas energiatööstus. Töötleva tööstuse toodangu maht kahanes MoM -0,4%, rohkem kui analüütikute oodatud +0,1%. Aastatagusega võrreldes aeglustus töötleva tööstuse toodangu kasv 1,2% pealt 0,2% peale, mis on kooskõlas aeglustuvate märkidega, mida on PMI indeks pakkunud (kollane joon).
  • Euroopa aktsiaturud on pärast ebalevat algust energiasektori eestvedamisel kergesse plussi jõudnud (Stoxx 600 +0,4%):
  • Jaapani majandusministri sõnul ei tasu keskpanga juhi Kuroda tänaseid kommentaare tõsiselt võtta :D...USDJPY 130?

    AMARI: KURODA'S COMMENTS MIGHT BE DISTORTED FROM WHAT HE MEANT
    AMARI: KURODA DIDN'T INTEND TO MOVE MARKET WITH HIS REMARKS


    USD/JPY
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    SIGM +7.6%, SURG +7.5%, OXM +7.4%, APIC +4.6%, TSM +0.9%, (May sales)

    M&A news: HCC +36.1% (to be acquired by Tokio Marine Holdings for $78.00 in cash per share), CSG +5.2% (Bloomberg reporting CSG is considering sale and has received some interest in the company), JCI +5.1% (to explore strategic options for separation of automotive business)

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher metal futures up ~1% in pre-mkt:
    RIO +3.7%, GFI +3.1%, AG +2.9%, GOLD +2.9%, BHP +2.8%, CLF +2.8%, MT +2.5%, MTL +1.6%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength with crude and nat gas futures up 2% in pre-mkt: RIG +2.5%, EXC +2.4%, TOT +2.3%, WLL +2.3%, SDRL +2.2%, PBR +2.2%, FE +2.2%, SM +1.8%, RDS.A +1.7%, BP +1.6%

    Other news: CYTX +10% (preclinical data for the Treatment of Thermal Injury published in the Journal Burns), CTIC +8.1% (disclosed an amendment to the Development, Commercialization and License Agreement with Baxter (BAX); milestone payments from BAX were accelerated), UACL +7.9% (announced the commencement of a modified "Dutch auction" tender offer to purchase up to 1 mln shares of its common stock), CANF +7.8% (announces a Notice of Allowance from the US PTO for a manufacturing method patent for its drug candidate CF101), BLDP +7% (signs a framework agreement with Tangshan Railway Vehicle Company for development of a new fuel cell module), WETF +5.8% (to replace QRVO in the S&P MidCap 400), OGXI +5.8% (FDA has agreed to the co's proposed amendment to the Phase 3 AFFINITY protocol and statistical analysis plan), XOMA +4.2% (treatment of congenital hyperinsulinism granted Orphan Drug Designation), QRVO +3.2% (to replace LO in the S&P 500), LBIO +3.2% (treatment of malignant melanoma Stages IIb to IV (tumor-inflitrating lymphocytes; LN-144) granted Orphan Drug Designation), STO +3% (elects Oystein Loseth as new Chairman), SPAN +2.9% (co has been selected as a supplier of consumer bedding products for the a major retailer's seasonal promotion in the fall of 2015), UVE +2.6% (announces the repurchase and retirement of Series M convertible preferred stock), UBS +2.6% (announces shares of UBS AG's to be delisted from SIX Swiss Exchange in H2 of 2015), FLT +2.5% (announces the signing of a contract with Uber to provide the Partner Fuel Card ), TTM +2.4% (Indian stocks to be included in MSCI EM Index in 2016), DB +1.6% (strong mkts in EU overnight), ABB +1.4% (strong mkts in EU overnight), ING +1.4% (exchanges EUR337.5 million notes of NN anchor investors into NN shares), ARIA +1.4% (granted Paladin Labs, an Endo International (ENDP) company, exclusive rights to distribute Iclusig in Canada for its newly approved indications), APAM +1.3% (announced May 2015 AUM of $111.6 bln), TGT +1.1% (confirms a 7.7% increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.56/share and a $5 bln expansion of its share repurchase authorization), NFLX +1.1% (investor group approves share split and associated additional shares, according to reports)

    Analyst comments: CL +1.5% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale), HOV +1.4% (upgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Underperform at JMP Securities), NTAP +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital ), FGP +0.9% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), JBHT +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital ), DG +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    FRAN -9.3%, URBN -2.7%, (disclosed thus far during Q2 comparable Retail segment net sales are mid single-digit positive), VIMC -2.5%, LMNR -1.7%, CLLS -1.5%

    Other news: SALT -17.1% (announces public offering of $200 mln of common stock ), RXDX -4.5% ( announces public offering of $75 mln in common stock ), TRN -3.7% (announces a US District Court has entered judgment in the federal False Claims Act case filed against the company; intends to seek reversal of judgment), HRTX -3.4% (announces proposed underwritten offering of common stock), NRZ -3.3% ( announces the commencement of a public offering of 31,486,146 shares of its common stock; shares being sold by the company as well as selling shareholders), REGN -3.2% (FDA Advisory Committee votes 13-3 in favor of recommending FDA approval of PRALUENT (alirocumab) for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia ), NBG -3.2% (cont vol surrounding Greece negotiations), GPRO -3.2% (presenting at investor conf), GPOR -2.8% (announces agreements to acquire additional acreage, associated assets and incremental firm transportation commitments from American Energy Utica ), PACB -2.5% (still checking, may be in symp with REGN), TOF -2.2% (announced that President David Mintz, has successfully underwent surgery and expects to return to his duties this summer), CMRX -1.5% ( announces a $150 mln common stock offering), NEM -1.4% (prices its 29 mln share offering of common stock for total gross proceeds of ~$682 mln)

    Analyst comments:
    DWA -1.9% (initiated with a Sell at Credit Agricole), HRB -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse ), NVDA -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura)

    Allikas:Briefing.com
  • Saksamaa on väidetavalt oma hoiakut pehmemaks muutnud ning nüüd lepib järk-järgulise reformikavaga. Link

    GERMANY SAID TO CONSIDER OFFERING GREECE STAGGERED DEAL ON AID
    GERMANY SAID TO CONSIDER SETTLING FOR ONE GREEK REFORM UP FRONT
  • Erko Rebane
    Jaapani majandusministri sõnul ei tasu keskpanga juhi Kuroda tänaseid kommentaare tõsiselt võtta :D...USDJPY 130?

    AMARI: KURODA'S COMMENTS MIGHT BE DISTORTED FROM WHAT HE MEANT
    AMARI: KURODA DIDN'T INTEND TO MOVE MARKET WITH HIS REMARKS


    USD/JPY


    Kuroda kommentaari tõttu käib augu lappimine tänase päevani aga tundub, et pigem sai turg sellest valesti aru

    Some BOJ officials were surprised, both by the abrupt move in the market and how the central bank chief’s words were interpreted, according to people close to the BOJ. Mr. Kuroda himself was puzzled, they said, by the dramatic market reaction his remarks had set off.
    But “there was no such intention at all” in Mr. Kuroda’s comments, one of the people close to the central bank said. Rather, he said, the market “misunderstood” him.
    Mr. Kuroda’s remarks were neither about the regular exchange rate in the currency market nor about the yen’s short-term prospects, this person explained. He stressed that the comments had “zero” implications for monetary policy.

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