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Börsipäev 17. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Ehkki olulist progressi eilne päev Kreeka osas ei toonud, liikusid aktsiaturud Euroopas kui Ühendriikides vahelduseks ülespoole, mis võib näidata, et investorid on sellest teemast vaikselt väsimas. Nii S&P 500 kui ka Stoxx 600 indeksid sulgusid 0,6% plussis.

    Eilse päeva jooksul muutus Kreekaga kokkuleppe saavutamine neljapäeval pigem ebatõenäolisemaks arvestades seda, et Kreeka rahandusministri Yanis Varoufakise sõnul ei kavatse nad eurogrupi koosolekul esitada uusi ettepanekuid, mida kreeditorid hetkel ootavad. Lisaks levisid meedias kuuldused, et uusi istungeid on määratud nii reedeks kui pühapäevaks. Märke sellest, et Kreeka ei kavatse täiendavate kasinusmeetmetega nõustuda, võis välja lugeda ka peaminister Alexis Tsiprase esinemisest, milles ta süüdistas rahvusvahelisi laenuandjaid katses häbistada kreeklasi ning trotsis hoiatusi nagu teeksid eurotsooni ametnikud ettevalmistusi visata riik euroalast välja.

    USAs alustatud elamuehituste arv tegi mais oodatust veidi suurema vähikäigu (annualiseeritult 1,036mln vs prognoositud 1,097mln), kuid aprilli näit revideeriti veelgi tugevamaks 1,165miljoni peale ning kokkuvõttes jätkub tsükkel siiski arvestatava kasvuga (mullusega võrreldes +5,1%). Järgnevate kuude ehitustegevusele heitis positiivset valgust aga väljastatud ehituslubade oodatust suurem hüpe (annualiseeritult 1,275 miljonit vs prognoositud 1,1 miljonit ja 1,140 miljonit aprillis).

    Tänase päeva keskmes on USA Föderaalreserv. Kuigi juunis oleks pidanud olema see ajalooline hetk, mil FED kavatseb intressimäära üle pika aja tõsta, sunnib USA majanduse jaoks oodatust pehmemaks kujunenud aasta algus tõenäoliselt esimese käiguga viivitama. Koos otsusega avaldab FOMC värsked majandusprognoosid ning nägemuse intressimäära tasemete suhtes järgnevatel aastatel, mis võiks anda turu jaoks rohkem aimu, millal võidakse rahapoliitikat normaliseerima hakata. Märtsi prognoosides oodati 2015.a lõpuks intressimäära mediaantasemeks 0,625%, mis eeldaks tänavu kahte 25baaspunktist tõstmist. Majandusnäitajatest võiks huvi pakkuda Suurbritannia tööturu statistika ning ühtlasi avaldavad lõppenud kvartali majandustulemused FedEx ja Oracle.

    11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused (mai) ja töötuse määr (aprill)
    11.30 Inglise keskpanga juuni istungi protokoll
    12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (mai lõplik)
    21.00 FOMC intressimäära otsus
    21.30 Janet Yelleni pressikonverents
    ??.?? Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu vaatab üle Kreeka pankadele pakutava ELA likviidsuse

  • Ehkki uute autode müük kasvas Hiina turul mais 3,9%, pole tööstus nõnda nõrka kasvu veel maikuu kohta varem näinud ning mitmed Lääne autotootjad näitasid isegi müügi langust. Siiani on kohalikud brändid suutnud tänu odavamatele SUV-dele nõrgemat keskkonda trotsida, kuid mitte lõputult:

    Great Wall Motor (2333.Hong Kong) announced a price cut of 6,000 yuan on its best-selling H6 sports – to celebrate the sale of more than 800,000 units, the company said. H6 accounts for more than 40% of Great Wall Motor’s SUV sales.

    Citi kohaselt võib hinnasurve alustamises süüdistada Volkswagenit:

    Several industry professionals we recently talked with suggested the price competition started withVW in April. Though VW price cut is just limited to a few niche models like Touran MPV, its high-profile announcement has triggered customers’ anticipation of more price cuts following up. Indeed, General Motors (GM), Ford Motor (F), Hyundai Motor (005380.Korea), etc., all followed with various degrees of price cuts, making the mid-end pricing environment even tougher.
  • Maailma suurim toiduainetööstuse ettevõte, Nestle, tõdeb, et on ülehinnanud Aafrika keskklassi suurust ning kärbib piirkonnas äritegevust:

    The Swiss food and drinks company is cutting 15 percent of its workforce in 21 African countries because it says it overestimated the rise of the middle class.

  • Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotluste arv kahanes mais -6,5 tuhande võrra, vähem kui oodatud -13,8 tuhat (aprillis -7,8 tuhat) ning töötuse määr püsis aprillis ootuspäraselt 5,5% peal. Samas jätkub keskmise nädalapalga kasvu kiirenemine, mis aprillis küündis boonuseid arvestamata juba 2,7%ni (oodati 2,5%) ning paljud loevad siit välja potentsiaalset inflatsioonisurvet.

    UK inflatsioon (valge) ja kolme kuu keskmise nädala tasu YoY kasv (ilma boonusteta)
  • Inglise keskpank otsustas juuni istungil jätta intressimäär samale tasemele ühehäälselt, kuid mitmed analüüsimajad ootavad järgnevatel istungitel juba suuremaid erimeelsusi

    BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST-RATE VOTE 9-0; BOND-PURCHASE VOTE 9-0
    BOE: FOR TWO MEMBERS BANK RATE DECISION WAS FINELY BALANCED
    BOE: SOME MPC SAID BOOST FROM OIL DROP WAS LESS THAN EXPECTED
    BOE SAYS STRENGTH OF HEADWINDS TO GROWTH HAVE STARTED TO EASE
    BOE SAYS FISCAL CONSOLIDATION LIKELY TO WEIGH ON GROWTH
    BOE SAYS DISORDERLY OUTCOME ON GREECE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK
    BOE SAYS PAY GROWTH HAS PICKED UP; MAY EXCEED OFFICIAL DATA
    BOE SAYS UNUSED CAPACITY IN ECONOMY SUPPORTS LOOSE POLICY
    BOE: FACTORS LOWERING INFLATION MAY DISSIPATE `FAIRLY SHORTLY'
  • Euroopa aktsiaturud on jäänud äraootavale seisukohale ning kuaplevad väikeste muutustega. Tänased suuremad liikujad Stoxx 600 indeksis:


  • DIJSSELBLOEM: CHANCE OF REACHING AGREEMENT WITH GREECE BY THURSDAY "VERY SMALL
    TSIPRAS: GOVT WILL SAY THE `BIG NO' IF NO VIABLE AGREEMENT
  • FedEx jääb ootustele alla, prognoosib tulevaks aastaks in-line EPSi

    FedEx prelim $2.66 vs $2.69 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $12.1 bln vs $12.32 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    FedEx sees FY16 $10.60-11.10 vs $10.88 Capital IQ Consensus


    FDX ja Q4 aktsiakasumi ootus
  • Hiina ettevõtted pöörduvad kasumite kasvatamiseks aktsiaturu poole: Via WSJ

    “Manufacturing is a very hard business these days,” said Mr. Dong, chairman of the company. “I want to make some money from the stock market and use the profits to restart my manufacturing business later, when the economy turns for the better.”
    According to the latest official data, profits earned by Chinese manufacturers rose 2.6% from a year earlier in April, a turnaround from a drop of 0.4% in the previous month. Yet nearly all of that increase—97%—came from securities investment income, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show. Excluding the investment income, China’s industrial profits were up 0.09%.
  • Meenutab väga Tallinna Börsi investorite (mina sealhulgas) mõtteviisi 1997. aastal (enne augusti lõppu).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    DTEA -13.2%, LZB -4.1%, NR -3.5%, ( provides operational update: Seen a modest reduction in Fluids Systems revenues since May, driven by continued slide in U.S. rig counts and weather-related delays), ADBE -1.5%, FDX -1.1%

    Select EU related names showing weakness: NVO -1.8%, ALU -1.6%, SNY -1.4%, ASML -1.3%, UN -1.1%, PHG -0.8%, NOK -0.6%

    Other news: RCPI -15.2% (announces $3.7 mln registered direct offering at purchase price of $2.25/unit), AZUR -10.7% (announces public offering), OCAT -9% (prices $30 mln offering of common stock and warrants), NR -3.5% (provided operational update: seen a modest reduction in Fluids Systems revenues since May, driven by continued slide in U.S. rig counts and weather-related delay), EGN -2.6% (announced that over the past week, it has entered into swap contracts for approximately 1.1 million barrels of 2016 oil production at an average NYMEX price of $63.80 per barrel), ARNA -2.3% (announces that CFO Robert Hoffman has decided to leave the company to pursue another opportunity in the biotechnology industry), VEC -0.9% (disclosed that Theodore R. Wright, EVP and Chief Operating Officer will retire effective June 30, 2015), ADES -0.5% (provided accounting update; appointed A. Bradley Gabbard as CFO)

    Analyst comments: RTEC -2% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Barrington Research), COTY -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), ZIXI -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig Hallum), DX -1.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), BMY -1.3% (initiated with a Underweight at Piper Jaffray)

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EEI +14.6%, BOBE +4.7%, ITI +1.1%

    M&A news: QIHU +9.1% (receives non-binding proposal to be acquired for $77/share by group including its Chairman and CEO), TMUS +2.3% (Deutsche Telecom (DTEGY) is working with Comcast (CMCSA) on T Mobile sale, according to Manager-Magazine)

    Select China related names showing strength: SHI +5.3%, SFUN +4.6%, CO +4.4%, DANG +2.5%, KNDI +2.4%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SD +1.8%, RIG +1.3%, CHK +0.9%, STO +0.8%, COP +0.6%, VLO +0.5%

    Other news: SGYP +53.4% (announces positive results in its first Phase 3 trial of Plecanatide to treat chronic idiopathic constipation), KYTH +22.4% (to be acquired by Allergan (AGN) for $75 per share), TRCH +14.3% (signs LOI for portion of Hunton assets), FREE +9.9% (cont strength), MANU +9.2% (Ron Baron spoke favorably on CNBC; continues to like), MDXG +5% (CEO interview on CNBC who discussed that the co's amniotic membrane tissue may help wounds heal faster), ARWR +3.1% (receives regulatory clearance in Germany to begin additional phase 2b studies of HBV candidate ARC-520), RLH +2.8% (HNA Group acquired ~3 mln shares of RLH's common stock), directly from Columbia Pacific), JAKK +2.3% (still checking), ANTH +2.1% (announced that it has met the enrollment target of its CHABLIS-SC1 Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating blisibimod for the treatment of lupus. Final data from the trial is expected in the second half of 2016), ERN +2.1% (issues response to allegations raised in an article authored by Cannell Capital), SDRL +2% (sells ultra-deepwater drillship the West Polaris to Seadrill Partners), DOW +1.6% (still checking), MBLY +1.6% (Ron Baron spoke favorably on CNBC; continues to like), CELG +1.3% (announces additional $4 billion share repurchase authorization), TASR +1% (announces new orders for its smart weapons), FFIC +0.9% (announced authorization of 1 mln share stock repurchase program)

    Analyst comments: HIMX +4.1% (target raised to $11 from $9 at Northland Capital), MXWL +3.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland ), WLL +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), STR +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), CRR +1.1% (upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Iberia), RSTI +1% (initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company ), ADPT +0.9% (Adeptus Health target raised to $102 from $69 at Piper Jaffray), BTI +0.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), FB +0.7% (target raised to $108 at Brean Capital)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • Saksa autotootjad peaksid nüüd pead kiiremini tööle panema, kui valitsus el. autodele soodukaid hakkab tegema. Mis saab siis Teslast? Lennus täna, aga tulevikus, konkurents kasvab?
  • FED jättis intressimäära ootuspäraselt samaks, kuid endiselt näeb kahte tõstmist sel aastal, mis eeldab esimest sammu septembris. 2016.a lõpuks prognoositakse nüüd 1,625% vs 1,875% märtsis ehk normaliseerumine kujuneb veelgi aeglasemaks kui varasemalt arvati.

    FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR
    FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING `MODERATELY,' JOB GROWTH PICKED UP

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