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Börsipäev 23. juuli

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  • Kui üleeile juhtisid suuresti vaid kaks ettevõtet Dow Jones indeksi ligi protsendi jagu madalamale, siis eile survestasid Apple (-4,2%) ja Microsoft (-3,7%) oma majandustulemustega tehnoloogiasektorit, viies Nasdaq indeksi -0,7% punasesse, samal ajal kui laiem turg käitus tänu finantssektorile veidi paremini (S&P 500 sulgus 0,24% kaotusega). Euroopas jätkas Stoxx 600 indeks Kreeka parlamendi hääletuse ootuses langust teist päeva järjest, kaotades -0,6% oma väärtusest.

    Ateenas kella nelja ajal hommikul päädinud parlamendi hääletuses kiideti 230 poolthäälega heaks teine reformide pakett. Vastu hääletas 63 saadikut, sh 36 Syriza parteist. Muuhulgas kiideti heaks seadus, millega tahetakse kohalikud pangad rekapitaliseerida enne 2016.a jaanuari ning selle raames peavad esimese kaotuse vastu võtma aktsionärid, seejärel võlausaldajad ning lõpuks hoiustajad. Viimaste puhul osalevad vaid üle 100 000 euro suuruste deposiitide omanikud, mis peaks tõstma väiksemate hoiustajate kindlustunnet. Kreeditore esindav troika jõuab kõige varem sellel nädalal Ateenasse, et alustada läbirääkimisi kolme aasta pikkuse laenuprogrammi üle.

    Eilsetest majandusuudistest oli tähtsamaks USA juunikuu olemasolevate majade müük, mis viitas jätkuvale tõusutrendile. Olemasolevate majade müük kasvas maikuuga võrreldes 3,2% annualiseeritult 5,49 miljonini, jõudes sellega kaheksa aasta kõrgeima tasemeni ning ületades konsensuse 5,40 miljoni suurust ootust. Kuna uute kinnisvaralaenude taotluste tase on viimastel nädalatel olnud mullu sama ajaga võrreldes 16% jagu kõrgem, viitab keskkond soodsa trendi jätkumisele.

    Liikudes tänase päeva majandusuudiste valiku juurde, siis põnevamateks näitajateks võiksid olla Suurbritannia juunikuu jaemüük ning USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused. Lõppenud kvartali majandustulemused avaldavad Euroopas teiste seas ABB, Aberdeen Asset Mgmt, Credit Suisse, Daimler, Dassault Systemes, Kingfisher, Logitech, Metso, OMV, Outokumpu, Roche, SABMiller, SEB, Shire, Skanska, STMicroelectronics, Syngenta Unilever. Ühendriikides raporteerivad 3M, Bristol Myers, Caterpillar, Celgene, Comcast, Dow Chemical, Eli Lilly, Freeport-McMoran, General Motors, IMAX, Kimberly-Clark, McDonald’s, Nucor, PulteGroup, Raytheon, Southwest Air, Under Armour, Union Pacific, United Continental, Amazon, AT&T, Flextronics, Starbucks ja Visa.

    10.30 Rootsi töötuse määr (juuni)
    11.30 Suurbritannia jaemüük (juuni)
    12.00 Euroala valitsuste eelarve puudujääk (esimene kvartal)
    15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
    15.30 Kanada jaemüük (mai)
    17.00 USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks (juuni)
    17.00 Euroala tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (juuli)
    18.00 USA Kansas City FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuli)

    USA aktsiaturu indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,2% kõrgemal, Euroopa börsid on avanemas 0,4% plusspoolel.
  • Mõned seni avaldatud tulemused Euroopas:

    Sanoma 2Q Sales, Earnings Miss Ests.
    • Sanoma 2Q net sales EU468.8m vs est. EU477.6m.
    • 2Q loss per share EU0.12 vs est. EU0.19 profit
    • 2Q net loss EU17.9.m vs EU19.9m loss y/y
    • Sees 2015 consolidated net sales growth adjusted for structural changes at around 2014 level (-3.7%); op. profit margin ex-items >4% of net sales

    Daimler 2Q Earnings Beat Est., FY Group Outlook Confirmed
    •Daimler 2Q profit from ongoing business EU3.78b, est. EU3.31b. Earlier story.
    • Daimler still sees ‘significant’ rise in 2015 rev.
    • Sees 2015 Ebit ongoing business ‘significantly’ up
    • Assumes FCF of the industrial business will be of the magnitude of the previous year; had seen FCF lower
    • FCF EU3.4b in 1H
    • M-B Cars Ebit Margin 10.5% vs 7.9%
    • Trucks Ebit EU682m vs EU455m
    • Says achieved targeted margin for M-B Cars in 1H, about to margin targets in other other automotive divisions
    • Says investment in property, plant and equipment will be
    increased again slightly in 2015
    • Sees China car market pacing 2% growth in global car demand

    Skanska 2Q Operating Profit, Revenue Beat Est.
    • Skanska 2Q operating profit SEK1.67b vs est. SEK1.56b.
    • 2Q revenue SEK40.4b vs est. SEK38.4b
    • 1H order bookings in construction SEK58.3b vs SEK68.0b year earlier; adjusted for currency effects order bookings fell by 22%
    • Says mkt condutions remain strong in most of co.’s home mkts
    • 2Q net income SEK1.22b vs est. SEK1.10b

    Dassault Systemes Raises Non-IFRS EPS, Sales Outlook
    • 2Q non-IFRS rev. rises 14% to EU723.5m (constant FX); ests. EU691.8m (9 analysts)
    • Saw 2Q non-IFRS rev. of ~EU665m-EU675m
    • 2Q IFRS rev. up 16% to EU715.7m (constant FX)
    • 2Q non-IFRS EPS 53c; ests. adj. EPS 49c (9 analysts)
    • Saw 2Q non-IFRS EPS of ~45c-47c
    • 2Q IFRS EPS up 50% to 39c
    • 2Q non-IFRS software rev. rose 12% y/y (constant FX)
    • 2Q non-IFRS service and other rev. rose 28% y/y (constant FX)
    • Sees 3Q non-IFRS rev. of ~EU660m to EU670m; ests. EU695.3m (3 analysts)... More
    •Sees 3Q non-IFRS EPS of ~50c; ests. adj. EPS 56c (4 analysts)
    •Sees 3Q operating margin of ~29% to 29.5%
    •2015 forecasts:
    •Sees 2015 non-IFRS rev. between EU2.80b-EU2.82b; saw EU2.76b-EU2.78b
    •Sees 2015 non-IFRS EPS ~EU2.15; saw ~EU2.10-EU2.13
    •Sees 2015 non-IFRS operating margin at ~30%

    STMicro Sees 3Q Gross Margin Rising to 35%; 2Q Rev. Matches
    • STMicro 2Q net sales $1.76b vs est. $1.77b
    • 2Q gross margin 33.8% vs est. 33.8%; co. guidance 33.8%
    • 2Q net income $35m vs $38m
    • Sees 3Q rev. growing ~2.5% sequentially, +/- 3.5ppts; 3Q gross margin ~35% +/- 2ppts
    • Says mkt conditions “mixed,” including weaker demand in components for PC applications, China’s economic environment
    Roche 1H Core EPS Misses Ests., Sales Beat; Repeats 2015 Outlook
    • Roche 1H core EPS CHF7.22, est. CHF7.38.
    • Says core EPS increased by 7% at constant FX, 1% in CHF, excluding one-time benefit of CHF428m before tax related to divestment of filgrastim rights in 2014
    • 1H core oper. profit CHF9.24b, est. CHF9.17b
    • 1H sales CHF23.6b, est. CHF23.3b; sales up 6% at constant exchange rates, +3% in CHF
    • Outlook for 2015 confirmed
    • NOTE 2015 outlook (April 22): said full-yr outlook confirmed, still expected sales to grow low-to-mid-single digit at constant FX; core EPS targeted to grow ahead of sales at constant FX; expects to further increase div. in CHF

    Syngenta 1H Adj. EPS Beats Estimates; Confirms 2015 Outlook
    • Syngenta 1H adj. EPS $14.70, est. $13.52.
    • 1H sales rise 3% to $7.63b at constant FX vs est. $7.66b; prices up 6%, volumes down 3%
    • Says 2Q sales up 7% with growth in all regions
    • 1H Ebitda $2b, est. $1.91b; says reported Ebitda 5% lower due to FX
    • CEO Mike Mack says in statement outlook for 2H largely dependent on Latin America, where is confident on ability to manage business in uncertain environment
    • Confirms 2015 outlook

    Credit Suisse Says ROE 10%, On Track for Leverage Targets
    • Credit Suisse says 2Q ROE 10% vs 9.9% in 1Q.
    • Look-through CET1 10.3% vs 10.1% end 1Q
    • Net revenue CHF6.94b vs year-earlier CHF6.43b
    • Provision for credit losses CHF51m vs CHF18m y/y
    • Total oper expenses CHF5.24b vs CHF6.79b y/y
    • Cost:income ratio 75.6% vs 105.5% y/y
    • Pretax margin 23.7% vs -5.8% y/y
    • Says continued to cut leverage exposure in 2Q
    • Cut leverage exposure at IB and Group level
    • On track to reach 2015 targets
    • Outlook: 3Q so far showed continued momentum in Asia Pacific, WMC and equities; June’s weaker trends in fixed income markets continued into July; says 3Q usually has some seasonal weakness

    ABB 2Q Sales, Net Beat Estimates; Orders Fall on Oil, China
    •ABB says orders hit by tougher market and weaker demand in oil and gas, China and U.S.; sees “continued hard-weather sailing,” confirms targets.
    • 2Q rev. $9.17b , est. $9.05b
    • Operational Ebita $1.06b vs $1.09b; margin 11.7% vs 10.7%
    • Net income $588m, est. EU577m
    • Orders $9b vs $10.6b

    SEB Lifts Targets, Says It’s Well Placed for External Growth
    • Co. predicts growth in 2015 op. result from activity of over 30%; full-year profit on this measure likely to exceed EU400M.
    • Co. had predicted growth in 2015 operating result from activity, without giving a figure
    • Co. seeks 2015 like-for-like sales growth above 6%
    • First-half sales EU2.11B vs est. EU2.08B.

    Logitech 1Q Adj. EPS 16c, Est. 10c; On Course to Exit OEM
    • 1Q sales $470m, down 2% y/y
    • 1Q retail sales were $425m, +7% y/y
    • 1Q non-GAAP operating income $31m; non-GAAP EPS 16c
    • Confirmed FY 2016 outlook of $150m in non-GAAP operating income and 7% retail sales grown in constant currency

    SABMiller Says Had ‘Challenging’ 1Q in Europe
    • SABMiller says in 1Q both rev. and vols. grew strongly in Latin America and Africa, tempered in particular by a “challenging” qtr in key European markets, softer vols. in China
    • 1Q total organic lager vol. down 1%, est. up 1%
    • 1Q total organic, constant FX net producer revenue up 3%, est. up 3.8%
    • 1Q organic constant FX NPR by region:
    • Latin America up 6%, est. up 7%
    • Africa up 7%, est. up 8.5%
    • Asia Pacific up 4%, est. up 4%
    • Europe down 4%, est. down 1%
    • North America flat, est. up 0.2%
    • North America sales to wholesalers down 2%, est. down 2%

    Outokumpu Sees 3Q Underlying Ebit Improving vs 2Q Loss of EU25m
    • Outokumpu 2Q underlying Ebit loss EU25m vs EU6m loss year earlier.
    • 2Q net sales EU1.69b vs est. EU1.75b
    • Sees 3Q underlying Ebit improving from 2Q level, remaining negative mostly due to seasonal impacts
    • Sees somewhat lower 3Q delivery volumes Q/q with
    seasonal decline in Europe, gradual increase in Americas
    • Says special measures are taken to improve profitability in Coil Americas
    • Says with current prices, net impact of raw material-related inventory, metal derivative gains/losses on profitability seen EU10m-15m negative

    Kingfisher 2Q LFL Sales Beat; B&Q, Screwfix Ahead of Estimates
    • Kingfisher 2Q (10-wk) total sales up 3.5%.
    • 2Q UK & Ireland B&Q LFL sales up 3.4%, est. up 2.2%
    • Screwfix LFL up 16.7%, est. up 12%
    • France Castorama LFL up 1.7%, est. up 0.8%
    • France Brico Depot LFL up 0.7%, est. 0%
    • Poland LFL up 5.3%, est. up 2.1%
    • Says unified IT system started on time in Ireland

    Unilever 2Q Underlying Sales Growth Beats Estimates
    • Unilever 2Q underlying sales growth 2.9%, est. +2.5% (median of 20).
    • 2Q underlying vol. growth 1.3%, est. 0.9%
    • 2Q price 1.5%, est. up 1.6%
    • 1H total rev. EU27b, est. EU26.8b
    • Notes positive currency impact of 10%
    • 1H core EPS EU91c, est. EU89.3c
    • 1H core oper. margin 14.5%, est. 14.3%
    • Div. EU30.2c, BDVD forecast EU30.2c
    • Says plans for another yr of volume growth ahead of its markets, steady improvement in core operating margin, strong cash flow
  • Kulla hinna vajumine viie aasta põhjadesse on tekitanud Aasia jaeklientides ostuhuvi. Via WSJ

    “Yes, we have had more customers visiting us since the crash this week,” said Alex Cheung, manager at Wo Shing Goldsmith, one of Hong Kong’s oldest gold jewelry retailers, which draws most of its clientele from mainland China. “Our sales are up by 20% to 30% compared to average sales in previous months.”
    “Until now, the gold demand was very low because of the season,” said Rahul Gupta, managing director of P.P Jewellers, a leading jewelry retail chain in India. “Demand has picked up noticeably as the common man thinks prices have bottomed out.”


  • Briti nael on sattunud pärast oodatust nõrgemat juunikuu jaemüüki surve alla (GBPEUR -0,7%). Suurbritannia juuni jaemüük kahanes autosid ja kütust arvestamata MoM -0,2% vs oodatud +0,4% (mõnevõrra pehmendab muustust maikuu muutuse revideerimine 0,2% pealt 0,4% peale). YoY aeglustus müük 4,5% pealt 4,2% peale, jäädes alla analüütikute 5,1% prognoosile.
  • USA töötu abiraha taotlused langesid läinud nädalal madalaimale tasemele alates 1973.a

    USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 18): 255K actual vs 278K estimate, 281K prior.


  • USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeksi YoY kasv püsis juunis 5,5% peal, jäädes üsna kaugele nulltasemest, mis viitaks majanduslanguse ohule.
  • Eurotsooni tarbijate kindlustunde indeks alanes juulis -5,6 punkti pealt -7,1 punkti peale, osutudes oodatud -5,8punktist negatiivsemaks. Tõenäoliselt võib osa sellest langusest kirjutada Kreeka arvele. Ajalooliselt on tase jätkuvalt suhteliselt kõrge.
  • Järelkauplemise ajal raporteerisid Amazon, Visa, Starbucks, AT&T, moodustades üle 3% S&P 500 indeksist ning kõik liikusid kõrgemale

    Amazon
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.19 per share, $0.30 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.11); revenues rose 19.9% year/year to $23.18 bln vs the $22.4 bln consensus and $20.6-22.8 bln guidance.
    Operating income $464 mln vs. ~$50 estimates and ($500)-50 mln guidance.
    AWS net sales +81% to $1.8 bln; operating income +408% to $391 mln.
    Co issues guidance for Q3:
    sees Q3 revs of $23.3-25.5 bln vs. $23.9 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    Operating income (loss) is expected to be between $(480) million and $70 mln vs. ($240) mln ests, compared to $(544) million in 3Q14.

    Visa
    Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $0.74 per share, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.58; revenues rose 11.5% year/year to $3.52 bln vs the $3.36 bln consensus
    Raises FY15 adj. EPS to mid teens growth from low end of mid teens growth; reaffirms low double digit net rev growth ex-FX, raises FX headwind 50 bps to 2%.
    Visa Inc. believes there is compelling logic for both Visa Inc. and Visa Europe to consummate a business combination and therefore regularly engages in such discussions and is currently in such discussions with Visa Europe.

    Starbucks
    Starbucks prelim $0.42 vs $0.41 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.88 bln vs $4.87 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Co reaffirms guidance for Q4, sees adj EPS of $0.42-0.43 vs. $0.43 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co reaffirms guidance for FY15, sees FY15 revs of +16-18% to ~$19.1-19.4 bln vs. $19.17 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

    AT&T
    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.69 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.63; revenues rose 1.4% year/year to $33.02 bln vs the $33.04 bln consensus.

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