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Börsipäev 24. juuli

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  • Aktsiaturud on viimastel päevadel olnud mõnevõrra raskustes toetuse leidmisega, kuid kasumivõtt üleostetud sentimendi juures ja kohati ka ettevõtete negatiivsemate kommentaaride taustal ei ole siiski midagi üllatavat. S&P 500 sulgus eile -0,6% madalamal ning Euroopas lõpetas -0,5% kaotusega.

    Ühendriikides polnud abiks isegi seik, et möödunud nädalal esmakordsel töötu abiraha taotluse esitanud inimeste arv langes 26 tuhande võrra 255 tuhande peale, mis oli parem kui oodatud 278 tuhat ning madalaim alates 1973.a novembrist. Juulikuu kipub statistika osas olema volatiilne kuu, kuna autotööstuses seadistatakse tehaseid ümber, kuid nõnda madal number peaks näitama, et ettevõtted vajavad hetkel tööjõudu ning on vähem valmis neid lahti laskma. Eile oodatust paremat kasumlikkust näidanud General Motorsi USA asepresidendi Kurt McNeil sõnul on selle aasta esimene pool olnud nende firma jaoks parim viimase 10a jooksul, lisades et inimesed tunnevad hästi ennast nii töökoha kui ka majanduse osas, mistõttu peaks ka teine poolaasta tugev tulema.

    Aasia aktsiaturud on kauplemas valdavalt madalamal, va Hiinas, kus Shanghai Composite liikus kirjutamise hetkel 1,3% kõrgemal. Seda, et Hiina aktsiaturg pole fundamentaalnäitajatega seoses, kinnitas tänane Caixini koostatud PMI indeks, mis peegeldas kohaliku töötleva tööstuse aktiivsust juulis nõrgemas seisus kui arvati. PMI indeks alanes juulis 49,4 punkti pealt 48,2 punktile (oodati 49,7), mis on madalaim tase 15 kuu jooksul. Seevastu Jaapani töötleva tööstuse PMI tuli selgelt üle ootuste, kerkides juulis 1,3 punkti 51,4 punkti peale (prognoositi 50,5), mis on kõrgeim tase alates veebruarist.

    Tänase päeva fookuses saavad olema eurotsooni ja USA töötleva tööstuse juulikuu aktiivsusindeksid ning ka USA uute majade juuni müük. Ühtlasi saadavad kreeditorid täna troika näol oma esindajad üle kuue kuu taas Kreekasse, et alustada läbirääkimisi kolmanda abipaketi üle.

    Euroopa ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused Air France-KLM, Anglo American, BASF, Danone, Faurecia, Huhtamäki, Vodafone. Ühendriikides raporteerivad AbbVie, American Airlines, Biogen, Johnson Controls, Lear, Spirit Airlines, Tenneco, V.F. Corp, Xerox.

    10.00 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori PMI (juuli)
    10.30 Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori PMI (juuli)
    11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektor PMI (juuli)
    16.45 USA Markiti töötleva tööstuse PMI (juuli)
    17.00 USA uute majade müük (juuni)

  • Mõned tänased tulemused Euroopas:


    Vodafone 1Q Organic Service Revenue Growth Beats Ests.
    •Vodafone 1Q organic service rev. growth rate 0.8% vs est. 0.5%; 0.1% in 4Q excl. KDG, Ono.
    • Keeps outlook, sees FY15/16 Ebitda in range of GBP11.5-GBP12b, positive FCF
    • European 1Q organic mobile service rev. falls 2.5% vs 3.4% drop in 4Q
    • U.K. +0.2%, Germany -1.2%, Spain -5.5%, Italy -2%
    • Improving trends on continued growth in contract base, further ARPU stabilisation in many mkts, continued reduction in contract churn across all major mkts; data usage growing
    • AMAP 1Q organic service rev. growth 6.1% vs 5.8% in 4Q
    •India +6.9%, Vodacom +4.5%, Turkey +15%
    •Says “strong progress” on Project Spring, mobile build 71% complete, European 4G coverage 75%
    •1Q group rev. GBP10.1b, service rev. GBP9.2b

    Puma 2Q Sales, Ebit Beats Ests., Confirms 2015 Forecast
    • Puma 2Q sales EU772.7m, est. EU743.8m.
    • 2Q gross margin 46.7%, est. 45.8%
    • 2Q Ebit EU6.8m, est. EU4.3m
    • Confirms 2015 forecast: drop in gross margin of 100bps-150bps
    • 2015 Ebit EU80m-EU100m
    • 2015 FX-adj. net sales rising in medium-single digit range
    • Sees higher sales growth in 4Q than in 3Q
    • 2Q FX-adj. sales up 7.6%
    • 2Q FX-adj. footwear sales up 16.2%, apparel “broadly flat”
    • 2Q FX-adj. EMEA sales up 3.9%, Americas up 11.6%, Asia/Pacific up 6.2%

    Anglo American 1H Sales, Profit Beat; Maintains Dividend Payment
    • 1H sales $13.3b vs est. $12.5b.
    • 1H Ebit $1.88b vs est. $1.60b
    • 1H Ebitda $3.28b vs est. $3.04b
    • 1H dividend $0.32; BDVD forecast $0
    • Attributable RoCE 8% vs 10% y/y
    • Cutifani says on track to deliver L-T net debt target of $10b-$12b, with net debt after the Lafarge Tarmac proceeds at $11.9b

    Huhtamaki 2Q Ebit Ex-Items Beats Est.
    • Huhtamaki 2Q Ebit excl. non-recurring items EU70m vs est. EU65.0m.
    • 2Q net sales EU714m vs est. EU728m
    • Says group’s trading conditions expected to remain “relatively stable” during 2015; will continue to address profitable growth opportunities
    • Capital expenditure expected to be at same level as in 2014; majority of investments expected to be directed to enhance growth in emerging markets

    Faurecia 1H Profit Rises 40%, Margin Forecast Ahead of Plan
    • Faurecia 1H operating profit EU424m vs yr ago EU302m.
    • Sales EU10.5b, est. EU10.5b. Yr ago EU9.33b
    • Says strong organic growth in sales in Europe and in North America, clearly outperforming auto production
    • Will meet 2016 operating margin target of 4.5%-5% in 2H, six months ahead of schedule
    • Reiterates 2015 sales target, sees net cash flow >EU200m vs previous target >EU100m; sees oper margin growth in North America of >120bps vs previous target >100bps

    Danone 2Q LFL Sales Beat Ests., Takes Dumex Impairment
    • Danone 2Q LFL sales up 4.5%, est. up 4.3%.
    • 2Q vol. up 1.5%, est. up 0.5%
    • 1H sales EU11.4b, est. EU11.3b
    • 1H trading oper. income EU1.38b, est. EU1.37b
    • 1H trading oper. margin 12.1%, est. 12.3%
    • Danone says cut L-T sales projections for Dumex in China; impaired Dumex and certain assets in China for EU398m at June 30
    • Confirms 2015 forecast: Organic LFL sales growth of 4%-5%, “slight rise” in trading oper. margin
    • 1H underlying net income EU831m, est. EU847m
    • 1H underlying fully diluted EPS EU1.37, est. EU1.38

    Air France-KLM 2Q Op. Profit Declines to EU185m From EU238m Y/y
    • AF-KLM 2Q op. profit EU185m, est. EU148m (4 ests.); yr ago EU238m
    • Sales EU6.64b, est. EU6.4b (6 ests.); yr ago EU6.45b
    • Restated net EU77m vs EU146m y/y
    • Outlook: Full yr outlook maintained, unit cost reduction of
    from 1% to 3%, reduction in net debt from EU5.4b at end 2014 to ~EU4.4b at end 2015
    • Unit rev./available seat km down 4.8% on like-for-like
    basis
    • Plans to accelerate cost-reduction initiatives
    • Pilots at Air France have “tight schedule” aimed at reaching agreements end of Sept.

    BASF 2Q Ebit Ex-Items EU2.04b, Est. EU2.12b, Keeps 2015 Outlook
    • BASF 2Q sales EU19.1b, est. EU18.6b.
    • Says significant earnings increase in Functional Materials & Solutions in 2Q; earnings in other segments below prior-yr qrtr
    • Confirms 2015 outlook
    • NOTE 2015 outlook (confirmed April 30): slight increase in sales; Ebit before special items likely to match level of 2014
    • BASF CEO Kurt Bock says in statement that co. now expects “somewhat weaker” growth for global economy, industrial and chemical production this yr vs 6 months ago.
    • BASF new expectations:
    • Growth of gross domestic product +2.4% vs previous forecast +2.8%
    • Growth in chemical production +3.8% vs previous forecast +4.2%
    • Avg euro-to-dollar exchange rate of $1.15 per euro vs previous forecast of $1.20
    • Avg oil price (Brent) of $60 to $70 per barrel
    (unchanged)
    • Cash provided by operating activities rose by EU2.4b to EU5.1b in 1H, mainly due to reduction in inventories of EU1.3b (cites seasonal effects in the natural gas trading and crop protection businesse, optimization of inventory mgmt)
  • Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI alanes juulis 1,1 punkti võrra 49,6 punkti peale, samas kui analüütikud ootasid 0,1punktist tõusu 50,8 punkti peale. Ka teenindussektoris osutus aktiivsus prognoositust madalamaks, kui indeks langes 2,1 punkti 52,0 punktile vs oodatud 53,8 punkti.

    Markit: “The French private sector economy started the third quarter on a softer note, as growth momentum slowed in July from the near-four year high seen in June. Weaker inflows of new business were reported, while employment slipped back into contraction for the first time in five months. Overall, the data point to an economy still struggling to generate a head of steam, further fuelling the suspicion that GDP growth is unlikely to be sustained at the 0.6% pace reported in the first quarter of the year.”

    Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI
  • Howard Marks peaks igale investorile rohkemal või vähemal määral tuttav nimi olema tänu Oaktree kvartaalsetele memodele. Üsna mõnus kuulamine on temaga hiljuti tehtud pikem podcast, kus ta räägib oma taustast ja investeerimisfilosoofiast. Muuhulgas nendib, et investoritest on täna saanud lühiajalise kasumi jahtijad, kuid tema ei jaga seda teesi ning usub endiselt, et endale tuleks selgeks teha, kuidas riske hajutada ning raha pikaajaliselt kasvatada - strateegia, mis on teda ja tema investoreid väga hästi toitnud.
  • Ka Saksamaa majanduse jaoks võis kolmas kvartal küsitluste kohaselt alata veidi pehmemas võtmes, kui töötleva tööstuse PMI alanes 0,4 punkti 51,5 punkti peale (oodati 51,9) ja teenindussektori PMI langes 0,1 punkti 53,7 punktile (oodati 54,0).

    Töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori ühine PMI
  • Kogu eurotsooni erasektori aktiivsus alanes samuti juunis, kuid võrdlemisi marginaalselt. Töötleva tööstuse PMI alanes 0,3 punkti 52,2 punktile (oodati 52,59 ja teenindussektori oma 0,6 punkti 53,8 punktile (oodati 54,2). Ühine PMI langes selle tulemusel 0,5 punkti 53,7 punktile (oodati 54,0).
  • Gapping up:
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AMZN +20.1% (also upgraded by several analysts), NTGR +13%, (light volume), MKTO +14%, P +10.2%, LOGM +9.9%, QLIK +9.6%, JNPR +9.5%, MITK +7.8%, IG +6.2%, PFPT +5.6%, MXIM +5.4% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI ; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), TRN +5.1%, SBUX +5%,(also authorizes the repurchase of an additional 50 million shares of its common stock under its ongoing share repurchase program; Starbucks and PepsiCo entered into agreement for the marketing and sale of SBUX ready-to-drink coffee in Latin America), STS +4.9% (thinly traded), V +4.5% (also Visa believes there is compelling logic for both Visa Inc. and Visa Europe to consummate a business combination), BYD +4%, BLDR +3.9% (light volume), HWAY +3.1%, N +3.1%, LEA +3%, VOD +2.8%, AAL +2.1%, T +2%, SYK +1.8% (light volume), SWKS +1.8%, VFC +1.8% (light volume), ABBV +1.7%, FLEX +1%, RT +0.8%, (light volume), ACTG +0.6%, SAVE +0.5%.

    M&A news: SFG +37.5% (StanCorp Fin to be acquired by Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance for $115/share in a $5 bln deal), NOK +2.1% (Nokia receives approval from the European Commission for its pending acquisition of Alcatel-Lucent), DTV +1.7% (FCC releases statement of commissioner Michael O'Rielly on the AT&T (T)/DTV merger application; says ‘process should not have taken this long'), BEE +1.1% (following late move higher on M&A related speculation - Bloomberg indicated co hired advisor to explore sale), ANTM +0.8% / CI +0.5% (CIGNA confirms it will be acquired by Anthem (ANTM) for $188/share, or $54.2 bln).

    Other news: AMDA +64.8% (signs an original equipment manufacturer letter of intent supply agreement, with a leading orthopedic device design and manufacturing company), ACRX +16.5% (Zalviso (sufentanil), received a positive opinion from the Committee for the treatment of post-operative pain. Hybrid applications rely in part on the results of studies carried out with a reference product and in part on new data), FXCM +5.8% (still checking), UCTT +4.9% (following yesterday's ~30% move higher), JD +3.5% (Nasdaq announced that JD.com (JD) will become a component of the NASDAQ-100 Index and the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index prior to market open on July 29, 2015), ALU +3.1% (Nokia receives approval from the European Commission for its pending acquisition of Alcatel-Lucent), MA +3% (V sympathy), QRVO +2.7% (following SWKS results), REGN +1.4% (Regeneron Pharms and Sanofi (SNY) receive a positive opinion for the marketing authorization of Praluent, recommending its approval for use in certain adult patients with hypercholesterolemia from the EMA), DEO +1.3% (following late sell-off on potential SEC distribution inquiry), NFLX +1.3% (European pay TV deals under scrutiny), AVGO +0.8% (following SWKS results), TWTR +0.6% (announced plans to introduce event based ad targeting), QCOM +0.4% (Reuters discusses comments from analysts that Intel (INTC) might be a possible suitor for QCOM chip unit), NUE +0.3% (favorable commentary on Thursday's Mad Money).

    Analyst comments: BCC +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson), SCTY +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird), GOLD +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), UA +1.1% (upgraded to Sector Weight from Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), UN +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Canaccord Genuity), UAL +0.9% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), DIS +0.5% (upgraded to Buy at Topeka), GM +0.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; also mentioned positively at Citigroup -- discusses several reasons to buy)

    Gapping down:
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TRUE -33.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts;), SPNC -21.5%, ABGB -13.6%, BIIB -11.7%, TRIP -6.8%, PMCS -6.7%, COF -6.1% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo, downgraded to Neutral at Goldman), ALGN -5.8%, CTCT -5.2% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer , downgraded to Neutral at Robert W. Baird), GIMO -3.8%, ATHN -2.1%, XRX -1.9%, ABAX -0.8%.

    Metals/mining related names trading lower: HMY -6.4%, AU -4.6%, GG -3.5%, IAG -3.1%, EGO -1.8%, ABX -0.8%.

    Other news: SNSS -64% (reports regulatory updates from its interactions with the EMA and US FDA; was informed that the Agency did not support a filing and encouraged the company to provide additional clinical evidence to support a future NDA submission; downgraded to Market Perform at Cowen, downgraded to Sell at ROTH Capital), CSII -10.6% (SPNC sympathy), AAVL -5% (announces the resignation of CEO Thomas Chalberg, effective July 23, 2015; appoints SVP of Business Operations, Hans Hull as Interim CEO), ITEK -3.8% (following yesterday's ~200% move higher), QSII -2.4% (following yesterday's ~20% move lower), EXEL -2.2% (priced its upsized underwritten public offering of 25 mln shares of common stock at $5.40/share), UTX -0.5% (disclosed that it will continue to be the subject of one or more US Government investigations).

    Briefing
  • USA töötleva tööstuse PMI oodatust marginaalselt parem

    EUR Markit US Manufacturing PMI (JUL P): 53.8 actual vs 53.6 estimate, 53.6 prior.
  • USA uute majade müük osutus oodatust nõrgemaks, aeglustudes annualiseeritud tempos 546 tuhande pealt 482 tuhandele vs prognoositud 548 tuhat

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