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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 28. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Aktsiaturgude järjepidev langus hakkab ühel hetkel toitma täiendavat negatiivset sentimenti, mis kipub suruma hindasid allapoole ka siis, kui otseselt uudised selleks põhjust ei ole andnud. Hinnalangus süvenes eile Euroopas (Stoxx 600 -2,2%) ning ka Ühendriikides lõpetas S&P 500 indeks -0,6% madalamal. Ei saa välistada riski, et siin võib peidus olla pikema korrektsiooni algus, kuid siiani on ajalugu soosinud neid, kes näevad lühiajaliselt ülemüüdud tingimustes kiiret põrget tagasi tippude lähedale.

    Negatiivse sentimenti peamine allikas näis eile olevat Hiina aktsiaturu -8,5% langus, mis oli tingutud kohalike investorite seas levinud spekulatsioonist nagu oleksid ametivõimud tõmbamas tagasi oma aktsiaturu toetust. Hiina väärtpaberituru regulatiivorgan lükkas need kuuldused esmaspäeval pärast turu sulgumist ümber, nentides et nad kavatsevad jätkata turu stabiliseerimist ja süsteemilise riski leviku tõkestamist. See sõnum ei pakkunud täna turgude avanedes investoritele esimese hooga kuigi palju kindlustunnet, kui Shanghai Composite langes edasi -4%, kuid on kirjutamise hetkel põrganud ning vähendanud kaotust -1,8%ni.

    Eilsed majandusuudised jäid valdavalt positiivseks. Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks kerkis juulis 0,5 punkti 108,0 punkti peale, jättes analüütikud liialt pessimistlikuks Kreeka mõjude suhtes (konsensus ootas 0,3punktilist langust 107,2 punkti peale). Prantsusmaal osutus tööturu pilt juunis oodatust positiivsemaks, kui töötute arv kasvas prognoositud 7,5 tuhande inimese asemel vaid 1,3 tuhande võrra. Kuna Prantsusmaa tööjõu ministeeriumi sõnul oli kasv mais 16,2 tuhat ning võis toona olla kalendriefekti tõttu kõrgemaks mõjutatud, võis see aidata kaasa soodsama juuni näidu kujunemisele. Julgustavaks oli siiski aastataguse tasemega võrreldes kasvu aeglustumine 5% pealt mais 4,7% peale juunis.

    Ühendriikides hüppasid kestvuskaupade tellimused juunis 3,4% võrreldes maiga (oodati 3,2%), mil need langesid -2,1%. Kasv tuli suuresti lennutööstuse tellimustest Pariisi lennupäevadel, kuid kasvu võis täheldada ka väljaspool volatiilsemaid sektoreid (lisaks lennutööstusele on välja jäetud ka kaitsetööstus), kus tellimused kasvasid maiga võrreldes 0,9% (oodati 0,5%). Kestvuskaupade tellimuste trend on alates eelmise aasta teisest poolest väga nõrk olnud, kui isegi juunis näitasid tellimused väljaspool lennu- ja kaitsetööstust -6,6% langust võrreldes aastataguse tasemega, millele on olulise löögi andnud kapitaliinvesteeringute vähenemine nafta- ning gaasitööstuses.

    Tänase börsipäeva keskmes saab Euroopas olema Suurbritannia teise kvartali SKP, mis analüütikute ootuste kohaselt näitas kvartali baasil kasvu kiirenemist 0,7% peale (esimeses kvartalis 0,4%). Aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes tähendaks see 2,6% kasvu (Q1 2,9%). Ühendriikides jälgitakse Markiti koostatud teenindussektori juulikuu aktiivsusindeksit ning tarbijate kindlustunde indeksit.

    Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused Euroopas BP, LVMH, MAN, Michelin, Next, Orange, Saipem, Statoil, UPM-Kymmene. Ühendriikides raporteerivad DuPont, Ford Motor, LyondellBasell, Merck, Pfizer, UPS, Gilead Sciences, Twitter, U.S. Steel.

    10.30 Rootsi jaemüük (juuni)
    11.00 Itaalia tarbijate ja ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (juuli)
    11.30 Suurbritannia teise kvartali SKP
    16.00 USA S&P/Case-Shilleri majade hinnaindeks (mai)
    16.45 USA Markiti teenindussektori PMI (juuli)
    17.00 USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (juuli)
    17.00 USA Richmond FEDi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks (juuli)
  • Eile jäi börsipäeva lisamata EKP krediidi statistika, mille kohaselt näitas euroala majapidamistele väljastatud laenude YoY kasvutempo juunis kiirenemist 1,4% pealt 1,7% peale ning ettevõtetele väljaspool finantssektorit püsis krediidi YoY kasv 0,1% peal.
  • Valik tänaseid tulemusi Euroopas:

    UPM-Kymmene 2Q Adj. EPS, Sales Beat Estimates, Keeps Guidance
    • UPM 2Q adj. EPS EU0.33 vs est. EU0.29; sales EU2.55b vs est. EU2.46b, opg profit ex-items EU227m.
    • Maintains outlook; says improved profitability achieved in 2014 expected to continue in 2015, prospects for further improvement
    • Says profitability is affected by lower publication paper prices, lower electricity sales prices vs 2014
    • Says UPM Paper ENA profitability expected to improve in 2H vs 1H
    • NOTE: UPM Closes 130,000 Tons of Newsprint Capacity in France

    Tullett Prebon 1H Underlying Pretax GBP52.9m vs GBP43.2m
    • Tullett Prebon 1H revenue GBP415.7m vs GBP360.3m.
    • Plans interim div 5.6p; BDVD forecast 5.6p
    • Says 1H activity in wholesale OTC financial markets has been more stable than in recent periods, says activity still relatively subdued

    Next Raises FY Pretax Outlook, 1H Brand Full-Price Sales Up 3.5%
    • Next Brand 1H full-price sales up 3.5%.
    • Next Retail 1H full-price sales up 0.8%
    • Next Directory 1H full-price sales up 7.5%
    • Total sales including markdown sales up 3.3%
    • Raises FY forecast:
    • Sees FY pretax GBP805m-GBP845m, had seen GBP785m-GBP835m
    • Sees FY full price Next Brand sales growth 3.5%-6%, had seen 1.5%-5.5%
    • To pay further special div. of 60p/shr on Nov. 2

    BP 2Q Adj. Profit $1.31b vs Est. $1.66b; Div. 10c/Shr
    • Production incl. share of Rosneft output 3.13mboe/d vs est. 3.16mboe/d.
    • Div. vs forecast 10c/shr
    • 2Q net charge for non-operating items of $7.5b mainly relating to agreements in principle to settle federal, state, vast majority of local government claims arising from 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident
    •BP Sees FY '15 Organic Capex Below $20B; Had Seen ABT $20B

    MAN Cuts FY Forecast, Takes EU170m Restructuring Charge
    • MAN 2Q net loss EU40m.
    • 2Q sales EU3.63b
    • Orders fell 6.7% to EU3.71b
    • Restructuring expenses of EU170m at Truck & Bus
    • Reorganizing truck production and streamlining administrative functions at Truck & Bus
    • Outlook: Sees slight year-on-year decline in group’s sales revenue; operating profit will be significantly impacted primarily by restructuring expenses; operating return on sales will more than halve y/y
    • Previous outlook was for sales on year-ago level, stable operating result

    Aixtron 2Q Sales Miss, Net Loss Exceeds Ests.
    • Aixtron 2Q sales EU40.4m vs est. EU46m.
    • 2Q Ebit loss EU17.9m vs est. EU10.7m loss
    • 2Q net loss EU18.1m vs est. EU9.8m loss
    • Keeps rev. guidance, sees FY rev. at EU220m-EU250m; forecasts returning to Ebitda break-even within 2H
    • Says additional costs related to AIX R6 tool qualification work are reflected in “unsatisfactory” result

    Orange 2Q Sales, Ebitda Exceed Ests.; Keeps Outlook Unchanged
    • Orange 2Q sales EU9.89b vs est. EU9.76b (4 ests.)
    • 2Q restated Ebitda EU3.29b vs est. EU3.14b (4 ests.)
    • 2Q capex EU1.48b vs EU1.35b
    • 1H net income EU1.1b vs EU581m
    • French mobile service rev. falls 2.7% in 2Q vs 4.8% decline in 1Q
    • Keeps guidance, sees FY Ebitda at EU11.9b-12.1b
    • Confirms 2015 div. of EU0.60/shr, interim div. of EU0.20/shr

    Statoil 2Q Pretax Profit NOK24.3b vs Est. NOK19.2b
    • 2Q revenue NOK13.8.5b vs est. NOK122.2b.
    • 2Q cash flow from ops NOK18.9b; for 1H NOK48b; 2Q FCF -NOK1.2b with 1H FCF of -NOK900m
    • Sees 2015 exploration spend at $3.2b
    • Equity production development in 2015 seen at 2% CAGR vs rebased 2014 level
    • Sees scheduled maintenance effect of ~45kboe/d in 3Q; effects from PSAs, U.S. royalties seen at ~170kboe/d in 2015 based on $60 oil
    • Ramp-up at fields incl. CLOV (Angola), Jack/St. Malo (U.S.) was offset by divestment of Shah Deniz project, expected natural decline on various fields, higher negative impact of planned maintenance

    YIT 2Q Operating Profit Misses Est.
    • YIT 2Q op. profit EU18.6m vs est. EU24.9m.
    • 2Q sales EU416.1m vs est. EU411.5m
    • Says cash flow was again very strong in 2Q; reached net debt target, set for end 2016, “well ahead of schedule”
    • Says order backlog turned to growth in each segment
    • Keeps 2015 forecast; sees op. profit margin ex-items below 2014 level; sees revenue growing -5% to +5% at comparable FX rates

    Michelin 1H Profit EU1.26b, Est. EU1.29b; FY Forecast Confirmed
    • Michelin 1H operating income EU1.26b, est. EU1.29b (5 ests.). Yr ago EU1.16b
    • Sales EU10.5b, est. EU10.3b (6 ests.). Yr ago EU9.67b
    • Volumes rose 2.4%, outperforming markets; changes in price mix and raw materials prices had negative effect
    • Outlook: Confirms 2015 targets of increase in operating income before nonrecurring income and ex-FX; return on capital employed >11%; structural FCF >EU700m; capex EU1.8b
  • WSJ oli eile hea lugu sellest, kuidas üksikud ettevõtted aitavad tegelikult indekseid üleval hoida.

    Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500.

    Mis tähendab seda, et paljude ettevõtete puhul on korrektsioon olnud oluliselt sügavama. Kui vaadata statistikat terve NYSE peala, siis uut 52 nädala põhja tegi 24. juulil 414 ettevõtet, mis on lähedane juba eelmise aasta oktoobri ja detsembri tasemetele, tingides toona korralikud põrked.
  • Rootsi jaemüük kasvas juunis MoM 0,3%, osutudes progonoositud 0,7% nõrgemaks. Hooajaliselt korrigeerimata YoY muutus oli 3,8% vs oodatud 4,0% (mais 3,9%).
  • Itaalia tarbijate kindlustunde indeks alanes juulis 109,3 punktlt 106,5 punktile, jäädes sellega nõrgemaks kui konsensuse prognoositud 109,0 punkti. Ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks langes samal ajal 0,3 punkti 103,6 punktile, mis jäi ootusele marginaalselt alla (103,7 punkti). Üldiselt ei saa öelda, et Kreeka kriis oleks väga olulist mõju avaldanud, jättes kindlustunde indeksid ajalooliselt kõrgetele tasemetele.
  • Suurbritannia SKP kasvas QoQ 0,7% ja YoY 2,6%, ühtides konsensuse ootustega
  • Pärast viiepäevast langust tõmmatakse Euroopa aktsiaturgudel täna veidi hinge. Stoxx 600 kaupleb ligi protsendi jagu kõrgemal, kui finants- ja tarbekaupade sektor veavad tõusu
  • Fordi müügitulu jäi oodatust veidi nõrgemaks, kui tugev dollar vähendas seda 2,2 miljardi dollari võrra. Aktsiakasumi oli siiski 10 sendi jagu parem.

    Ford Motor prelim $0.47 vs $0.37 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $35.1 bln vs $35.50 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

  • Case/Shilleri USA 20s linnas majade hinnamuutust kajastav indeks kerkis mais YoY 4,94%, mis oli sarnane tempo võrreldes aprilliga, kuid madalam võrreldes analüütikute prognoositud 5,6%st
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    ACPW +13.6%, KN +10.2%, GIG +9.6%, MSTR +7.8%, (announced the appointment of Phong Le as CFO effective on or about August 24, 2015; co also reported earnings), MZOR +6.8%, CMI +4.2%, SIRI +3.4%, RCII +3.1%, STO +2.9%, F +2.5%, VLRS +2.4%, BP +2.3%, MPWR +2.1%, UPS +2%, LH +1.9%, PFE +1.8%, NTLS +1.7%, ORAN +1.4%, CIT +1.3%, DHI +1.3%, WYN +1%, MRK +0.9%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: FCX +2.6%, BP +2.2%, MT +2.2%, BHP +2.1%, RIO +1.7%, GOLD +1.2%, NUE +1.1%, AA +1.0%

    Fan Favorites showing strength with futures markets: NFLX +1.2%, TSLA +1.1%, AMZN +1%, AAPL +0.7%

    Other news: SAEX +17.3% ( awarded a contract for ocean-bottom marine seismic data acquisition services, valued at ~$47 million ), DO +16.3% (still checking, may be in sympathy with STO earnings), SD +8.4% (announces receipt of notice from NYSE regarding continued listing standards - intends to consider available alternatives, potentially including a reverse stock split), JKS +3.8% (signs a three-year RMB3 billion line of credit agreement to support its PV project developments), REGN +3.7% (Regeneron Pharms and Sanofi (SNY) agree to jointly advance PD-1 and other new immuno-oncology antibodies), ASTI +3.4% (disclosed the mutual termination of its May agreement regarding the purchase and sale contract of its Thornton, Colorado headquarters building), SDRL +3.4% (in sympathy with STO earnings), SPWR +3% (announced that it has acquired 1.5 gigawatts of U.S. solar power plant development assets from Australia-based Infigen Energy), HZNP +1.6% (announced a collaboration with Fox Chase Cancer Center to study ACTIMMUNE in combination with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors in various forms of cancer including advanced urothelial carcinoma and renal cell carcinoma), ACI +1.4% (announced that for administrative purposes it is postponing the previously announced one-for-ten reverse stock split of common stock), RDS.A +1.4% (in symp with BP), GILD +1.2% (ahead of earnings today)

    Analyst comments: ITEK +4.7% (target raised to $29 from $9 at Piper Jaffray), BBRY +3% (upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), AEGR +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), PHG +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale), FB +0.6% (target raised to $117 at Axiom Capital ahead of earnings tomorrow afternoon)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    AMKR -17.5%, BIDU -12.6%, CKEC -11.7%, COMM -5.7%, AVB -5.5%, AUDC -1.8%, CR -1.7%, TACO -1.4%, PRAH -1.4%, ALSN -1.3%, DD -1.2%

    Other news: IMMU -45.6% (Belgium's UCB Phase 3 clinical trial program for Epratuzumab did not meet primary endpoint; Epratuzumab was licensed from IMMU), AMDA -30.3% (announced the FDA has requested co provide 24-month clinical performance data for pending 510(k) submission for the Valeo C Interbody with CsC Osteo-Conductive Scaffolding; co also provided in-line Q2 rev guidance), CARA -6.7% (commenced an underwritten public offering of shares of its common stock of up to $65 million), EGLT -5.4% (to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering; size not disclosed), NYMX -1.6% (following 100% move higher yesterday), ADPT -1.5% (announces an offering of 2.75 mln shares of common stock; ~1.91 mln shares to be sold by co, ~843K shares to be sold by Sterling Partners shareholder group), YOKU -0.8% (following BIDU results), SINA -0.5% (following BIDU results)

    Analyst comments: YELP -2.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)

    Briefing
  • USA teenindussektori aktiivsus paranes juulis 0,4 punkti 55,2 punktile, mis oli oodatud 55,0 punkti. Samas ootuste indeks langes 69 punkti pealt 65,3 punktile, mis on madalaim alates 2012.a juunist.

  • USA tarbijate kindlustunne sai juulis kõvasti pihta, kui viimast kajastav indeks langes 99,8 punkti pealt 90,9 punktile (oodati 100,0). Väga tugev kukkumine oli just ootuste indeksis.

    • Present situation confidence fell to 107.4 vs. 110.3 last month.
    • Consumer confidence expectations fell to 79.9 vs. 92.8 last month.


  • Tööturu trend pole ameeriklaste jaoks piisavalt veenev ja lisaks hirmutab olukord Kreekas ja Hiinas

    Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence declined sharply in July, following a gain in June. Consumers continue to assess current conditions favorably, but their short-term expectations deteriorated this month. A less optimistic outlook for the labor market, and perhaps the uncertainty and volatility in financial markets prompted by the situation in Greece and China, appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Overall, the Index remains at levels associated with an expanding economy and a relatively confident consumer.”
  • TWTR tulemued oodatust paremad:
    Twitter prelim $0.07 vs $0.04 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $502 mln vs $481.40 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    TWTR +5% @38,8

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