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Börsipäev 29. juuli

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  • Aktsiaturud püüdsid eile veidi positiivsema tuule tiibadesse, mis johtus osalt ülemüüdud sentimendist ning ettevõtete majandustulemustest, kui oodatust tugevamad kasuminumbrid raporteerisid eile Ford, Pfizer ja UPS. S&P 500 sulgus 1,2% plusspoolel, Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 1,1% võiduga.

    Majandusuudistes domineeris pealkirju USA, kus statistika tõi siiski kahetisi emotsioone. Positiivsest küljest viitas Markiti koostatud teenindussektori PMI indeks juulis aktiivsuse väikesele tõusule, kerkides 0,4 punkti 55,2 punkti peale (oodati 55,0) ning Richmondi piirkonna töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse tõusule viitas FEDi küsitlus, millel põhinev indeks kerkis kuue punkti võrra 13 punkti peale, jõudes sellega üheksa kuu kõrgeimale tasemele ning ületades konsensuse 7punktist ootust.

    Neid uudiseid varjutas aga USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeksi 8,9punktine langus juulis 90,9 punkti peale, mis oli suurim kukkumine ligi nelja aasta jooksul ning kujunes märksa nõrgemaks võrreldes analüütikute 100,0punktise ootusega. Peamiselt tulenes see vastajate pessimistlikumast hinnangust tööturu väljavaadetele, kuid samas näisid mõju avaldavat ka arengud Hiinas ja Kreekas.

    Täna lõppeb Föderaalreservi kahepäevane istung, mille tulemusel jäetakse intressimäär tõenäoliselt jätkuvalt nulli lähedale, kuid loodetavasti saavad turuosalised mõnevõrra targemaks, kas septembris on intressimäära kergitamine tõenäoline või mitte. Majandusnäitajatest avaldatakse Saksamaa ning Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeksid ning USA majade juunikuu pooleliolevad müügitehingud.

    Euroopa ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused teiste seas Barclays, Bayer, British American Tobacco, Gamesa, GlaxoSmithKline, Ingenico, Jeronimo Martins, Man Group, Peugeot, Saint-Gobain, Schneider Electric, Subsea 7, Total, Volkswagen. Ühendriikides raporteerivad Altria, Eaton, Exelon, General Dynamics, Goodyear Tire, Humana, Intl Paper, Facebook, Mastercard, Western Digital, Whole Foods.

    09.00 Saksamaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (august)
    09.45 Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (juuli)
    10.00 Hispaania jaemüük (juuni)
    17.00 USA majade pooleliolevad müügitehingud (juuni)
    21.00 FOMC intressimäära otsus
    ??.?? Brasiilia keskpanga intressimäära otsus

  • Mõned eilsed ja tänased tulemused:

    Volkswagen 2Q Profit In Line; Reiterates FY Margin Forecast
    • Volkswagen 2Q oper profit EU3.49b, est. EU3.48b.
    • Rev. EU56b, est. EU54b
    • Still sees Group operating return on sales 5.5%-6.5%

    Subsea 7 2Q Net $93.6m vs Est. $95.9m; Backlog at End-2Q $7.2b
    • 2Q adj. Ebitda $275m vs est. $242.8m; Ebitda margin 20.3% falls vs 23.7% y/y.
    • Revenue $1.35b vs est. $1.4b
    • 2Q order intake $900m
    • Net debt of $151m falls vs $288m at end-1Q, reflecting $297m 2Q net cash from ops
    • Signed Export Credit Agency-backed secured term loan facility of up to $357m after end-2Q
    • Says timing of new awards to market “highly uncertain”
    • Maintains guidance on lower 2015 group revenue, lower Ebitda margin y/y
    • Reiterates plan for 2,500 job cuts, reduction of fleet by 12 vessels by early 2016

    British American Tobacco 1H Profit Beats Ests., Sees Improved 2H
    • British American Tobacco 1H sales GBP6.4b, est. GBP6.34b.
    • 1H adj. profit from operations GBP2.51b, est. GBP2.44b
    • Adj EPS 100.2p, est. 97.6p
    • Interim div. 49.4p, BDVD forecast 49.4p
    • 1H oper. margin 39.2%, est. 38.9%
    • 1H rev. constant FX up 2.4%, est. up 1.6%
    • Cigarette vol. down 2.9%, est. down 3.7%
    • Outlook: Underlying performance remains strong, confident on course to deliver an improved 2H, leading to another yr of “good earnings growth” at constant rates of exchange

    Barclays 2Q Adj. Pretax GBP1.85b; Est. GBP1.8b; CET1 Ratio 11.1%
    •Barclays says 2Q adj. pretax GBP1.85b vs 1.66b y/y.
    • Adj. total income net of insurance claims GBP6.55b vs GBP6.68b

    Tullow Oil Loss Narrows; FY Guidance Remains at 66-70Kbopd
    • 1H op. profit $97m vs $36m y/y, says mainly due to lower exploration write-off of $88m
    • Loss after tax $68m vs $95m loss y/y
    • 1H capex $783m; FY forecast remains $1.9b
    • Net debt at end 1H $3.6b, with facility headroom, free cash of $2.3b
    • Says restructuring incl. job cuts and other cost savings will save $500m over 3 years starting from 2H

    Total 2Q Adj. Net $3.09b vs Est. $2.67b; Div. EU0.61/Share
    • Sales $44.7b fall 29% y/y.
    •Total 2Q Adj. Net $3.09B; Est $2.67B
    • Div. matches forecast EU0.61/share
    • Upstream net oper. income $1.56b falls 49% y/y; Refining & Chems net oper. income rises to $1.35b vs $401m year ago
    • Production 2.3mboe/d vs est. 2.28mboe/d; oil production 1.22mbbl/d up 23% y/y; gas output 5.91bcf/d rises 1% y/y
    • Confirms 2015 cost-cut target of $1.2b; 2015 investments confirmed at $23b-$24b; 2015 production growth target confirmed at >8%
    • Says refining market conditions remain favorable at start of 3Q
    • Sells 20% stake in Laggan-Tormore, Edradour, Glenlivet fields to SSE for GBP565m

    Smurfit Kappa 2Q Revenue, Ebitda In Line With Estimates
    • Smurfit Kappa 2Q revenue rises 1% to EU2.03b in line with est., 2Q Ebitda ex-items falls 3% to EU285m vs EU284m Ebitda est.
    • 2Q EPS ex-items up 34% to 44.6c
    • 2Q net debt EU3.1b vs EU2.9b in 1Q
    • Interim dividend up 30% to 20c in line with BDVD est.
    • Says corrugated packaging growth over 6% YTD with underlying growth over 4% in Europe
    • Says 1H EPS growth underpinned by good underlying business conditions
    • Says good progress on containerboard pricing and strong packaging demand providing underpin to corrugated price increases towards the latter part of 2015 and into 2016
    • Continues to expect to deliver earnings growth year-on-year

    Bayer 2Q Ebitda Ex-Items, Core EPS Beat; Adjusts Outlook for FX
    • Bayer 2Q Ebitda before special items cont. ops EU2.9b, est. EU2.69b.
    • 2Q sales cont. ops EU12.1b, est. EU11.8b
    • 2Q core EPS cont. ops EU1.98, est. EU1.85
    • 2015 outlook for operational performance of continuing operations confirmed, adjusted for FX effects
    • Sees full-yr sales of ~EU47b vs EU48b-EU49b previously
    • Confirms expects to raise Ebitda before special items, core EPS by a high-teens percentage
    • NOTE: Diabetes Care business no longer included in continuing operations, updated forecast

    Linde Cuts 2015 Sales Forecast
    • Linde cuts 2015 rev. forecast to EU17.9b-EU18.5b, saw EU18.2b-EU19b.
    • Confirms 2015 forecast for adj. operating profit of EU4.1b-EU4.3b, ROCE 9%-10%
    • 2Q rev. EU4.64b, est. EU4.62b
    • Operating profit EU1.09b, est. EU1.07b

    Red Electrica 1H Ebitda, Net Beat Estimates
    • Red Electrica 1H Ebitda EU740.3m vs est. EU736.9m.
    • 1H net EU308.8m vs est. EU305m

    Fiskars 2Q Sales, Ebit Increase; Sees Rising Sales in 2015
    • Fiskars 2Q net sales EU253.4m vs EU201m y/y.
    • 2Q Ebit EU19.4m vs EU18.5m y/y
    • 2Q operative EPS EU0.08 vs EU0.26 y/y
    • 2Q net income EU13.6m vs EU21.3m y/y
    • Reiterates FY outlook published on July 27; expects FY net sales to increase from 2014 levels; sees FY op. profit ex. items at 2014 levels

    Telefonica Deutschland 2Q Adj. Oibda Rises 13.5%; Confirms Goals
    • 2Q sales up 1.3% to EU1.95b; est. EU1.93b (9 analysts)
    • 2Q adj. Oibda up 13.5% to EU453m
    • 2Q mobile ARPU EU10.8, down 2.2% y/y
    • 2Q mobile postpaid net at 201,000
    • Cons. net debt EU1.78b at end of June
    • 2015 outlook: Sees mobile service rev. “broadly stable”, Oibda to rise more than 10% vs EU1.46b in 2014, capex to decline by “high single digit pct” from EU1.16b in 2014

    KPN 2Q Strengthens Outlook, Sees Adj. Ebitda In Line w/ 2014
    • KPN 2Q sales EU1.74b vs est. EU1.77b.
    • 2Q adj. Ebitda EU602m vs est. EU596m
    • Raises outlook, sees FY adj. Ebitda in line with 2014; FCF excl. TEFD div. more than EU500m
    • Says stabilized adj. Ebitda earlier than anticipated
    • Plans to pay 8c shr div. in 2015, 3c interim div.; will distribute 3.4c additional interim div. from Telefonica Deutschland
    • Expects to grow 2016 div. further
    • Says simplification program on track, ~EU230m run-rate savings realized by end of 2Q

    Solvay 2Q Adj. Ebitda EU500m vs est. EU494m; Forecast Affirmed
    • Solvay maintains forecast for “solid” growth of 2015 adj. Ebitda, says forecast is despite expectation of continued uncertainties in various mkts.
    • Solvay says Novecare 2Q vols down ~20% y/y
    • 2Q rev. EU2.675b vs est. EU2.696b (range EU2.62b-EU2.80b)
    • 2Q rev. growth 4.2% y/y, with vols. down 3.6%, prices down 1,3%, FX effect 9.1%, no effect from scope changes
    • 2Q adj. Ebitda EU500m vs est. EU494m (range EU453m-EU508m)
    • 2Q adj. Ebitda margin 18.7%, up 66 bps y/y
    • 2Q adj. EPS EU1.71; may not compare with est. EU1.90

    Suez Environnement 1H Ebitda in Line With Est., Confirms Targets
    • Suez 1H Ebitda EU1.29b vs est. EU1.28b.
    • 1H sales EU7.30b vs est. EU7.27b
    • 1H net EU141m, up 11.4% adjusted for gain on CEM disposal
    • Free cash flow EU322m in 1H, up 49.7% y/y

    Peugeot 1H Revenue In Line; FY Profit Forecast Reiterated
    • Peugeot 1H recurring oper income EU1.42b, vs EU387m y/y. Est. EU1.07b.
    • Rev. EU28.9b, est. EU28.5b
    • Automotive recurring oper income EU975m
    • FCF EU2.79b
    • Says oper income improvement due to due to favorable business environment, cost savings and positive product mix
    • Outlook: Reiterates forecast for operating FCF ~EU2b over 2015-2017, operating margin of 2% in 2018 for auto division and 5% over 2019-2023.
    • Sees 2015 Europe car mkt growth of 6% vs previous forecast +4%; sees China +3% vs previous +7%.

    Schneider Cuts Full-Year Sales, Adj. Ebita Target on Oil & Gas
    • Schneider Electric sees “around flat” organic growth in rev. for 2015, had seen low single-digit organic growth, reaffirmed on April 21.
    • Sees “significant growth” in 2015 adj. Ebita at current FX rates, “stable to moderate decline” in adj. Ebita margin y/y
    • Had seen adj. Ebita margin at 14%-14.5%, assuming no negative FX impact on margin
    • Says group’s performance hurt by “stronger than expected headwinds” from Oil & Gas and China, one-offs in Invensys

    Lafarge Would Have Missed FY Ebitda Target on Standalone Basis
    • Lafarge says 2Q sales rise 5% to EU3.54b vs EU3.58b Bloomberg est., stable on LFL basis.
    • 2Q Ebitda up 1% to EU820m, down 2% on comparable basis
    • 2Q net loss EU381m vs est. EU224m profit, takes 2Q impairment of EU450m on assets to be sold
    • Says cement volumes fell 3% in 2Q
    • Continues to see cement demand increasing for FY, sees 1%-4% market growth
    • Says FY2015 forecast Ebitda would have been 4% below initial target of EU3b-EU3.2b, on standalone basis; this guidance not relevant anymore following merger

    Osram 3Q Sales, Adj. Ebita Rises; Confirms Full-Year Outlook
    • Osram plans to complete carve-out of general lighting lamps by spring, according to e-mailed statement.
    • 3Q rev. EU1.35b, est. EU1.35b; comp. rev. falls 1%
    • Ebita ex-items EU129m vs EU104m; margin 9.5% vs 8.6%
    • Net income EU63.8m vs EU44.4m
    • Specialty Lighting comp. rev. +4%, adj. Ebita margin 14.1%
    • LED Lamps & Systems comp. rev. +36%, adj. Ebita margin -6.6%
    • Classic Lamps & Ballasts comp. rev. -13%, adj. Ebita margin 8.3%
    • Luminaires & Solutions comp. rev. -14%, adj. Ebita margin -11.5%
    • Confirms outlook for FY 2015 of comp. rev. on 2014 level

    HeidelbergCement 2Q Ebitda EU752m vs Est. EU752.3m
    • HeidelbergCement 2Q rev. EU3.64b vs est. EU3.67b.
    • Co. confirms outlook for 2015, sees financing costs decreasing as net debt declines
    • Co. plans to increase div. payouts to 40%-45% in 2019
    • Financial results to improve by at least EU120m by 2017 via process optimizations; co. also sees EU150m cost cut over next several years via LEO program
    • NOTE: Earlier, HeidelbergCement to Buy 45% of Italcementi for EU1.67b


    Saipem 2Q Net Loss EU997m; Sees Full-Yr Loss, Job Cuts
    1H net loss EU997m vs net inc. EU75m y/y.
    • 2Q rev. EU2.35b vs est. EU2.93b.
    • 2Q new contracts EU1.1b vs EU9.2b year ago
    • Backlog at end-2Q EU19b vs EU21.5b at end-1Q
    • Co. starts program to achieve savings EU1.3b in 2015-2017, sees loss of 8,800 jobs
    • Revises 2015 guidance to take into account writedowns in 2Q:
    • Sees rev. ~EU12b
    • Ebit loss ~EU450m
    • Adj. Ebit loss ~EU250m
    • Net loss ~EU800m

    Euler Hermes 1H Net EU172.4m vs EU173.2m
    • 1H rev. EU1.34b vs EU1.27b y/y.
    • 1H combined ratio 75% vs 73.1% y/y

    LVMH’s Fashion & Leather Goods 1H Organic Sales Beat Ests.
    •LVMH 1H total organic sales growth 6%, est. 4%.
    •LVMH 1H Net EU1.58B; Est. EU1.80B 7/28 18:45
    • 1H organic rev. growth by unit:
    • Wines & Spirits 2%, est. 0%
    • Fashion & Leather Goods 5%, est. 3%
    • Perfumes & Cosmetics 6%, est. 6%
    • Watches & Jewelry 10%, est. 7%
    • Selective Retailing 5%, est. 5%
    • Despite the continued destocking by distributors in China, 2Q saw a return to organic rev. growth for Hennessy
    • Fashion & Leather Goods growth accelerated in 2Q
    • Outlook: Will continue to gain mkt share due to product launches planned before the end of 2015, geographic expansion in promising markets, while continuing to manage costs
  • Kreeka kriis näib minevat ameeriklastele rohkem korda kui sakslastele.....viimaste kindlustunne püsib küsitluse kohaselt augustis 10,1 punkti peal

  • Prantsusmaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks alanes juulis ühe punkti võrra 93 punkti peale vs oodatud 94 punkti
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    NHTC +23.7%, ( increases dividend by 33% to $0.04 per share, authorizes $15 mln share repurchase) STLY +19.8%, RUBI +16.5%, CALX +14.3%, AIZ +9.6%, MTSI +8.6%, BBSI +8.5%, BWLD +8%, PNRA +7.8%, RSYS +7.4%, MVIS +7.4%, CLF +7.1%, VIV +6.5%, ATRC +5.9%, FCF +5.5%, WNC +5.1%, NVMI +4.9%, CETV +4.4%, SONS +4.4%, BLDP +4.3%, NUVA +4.1%, (reached a definitive settlement with the US DOJ; co will pay $13.5 mln, plus fees and accrued interest in settlement ), CTXS +3.8%, (Citrix Systems enters into an agreement with Elliott Management Corporation; appoints Elliott's Jesse Cohn to the Board; announces the impending retirement of CEO Mark Templeton; co initiates a CEO search process ), GILD +3.7%, MILL +3.6%, WOOF +3.3%, ACCO +3.1%, AMED +3%, RGR +2.9%, TRU +2.6%, ANTM +2.5%, X +2.4%, GD +2.2%, STRZA +2.2%, BCS +2.1%, STNG +2.1%, MNDO +2.1%, IP +2%, NGD +1.9%, IACI +1.7%, HLT +1.5%, HURN +1.3%, MO +1.2%, NCR +1%, CRI +1%, APC +0.9%, PAG +0.9%

    M&A news: CYT +27.6% (Solvay (SVYZY) to acquire Cytec for $75.25 per share in cash)


    Other news: NHTC +23.4% (increased quarterly dividend by 33% and authorized $15 mln share repurchase; co also reported earnings), OGEN +19% (announced positive data for multiple compounds from its Mutacin 1140 lantibiotic platform ), MNGA +7% (announces that a major waste to energy company has placed multiple orders), GALE +5.6% (announced the product launch for Zuplenz (ondansetron) Oral Soluble Film in the United States), ARNA +4.9% (initiates a Phase 2 proof-of-concept clinical trial of APD334 in ulcerative colitis), ARIA +2.2% (PDL BioPharma enters into a revenue interest assignment agreement, to provide ARIAD Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) with up to $200 million in financing, in exchange for royalties on Iclusig), STO +1.5% (cont strength)

    Analyst comments: SALT +4.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), AKS +3.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie ), YRCW +3.6% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Mkt Perform at Raymond James), DDD +2% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Longbow), AMZN +1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel), WFC +0.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    YELP -20.4%, DATA -12.4%, VDSI -10.2%, GIGA -9.8%, TWTR -9.8%, AKAM -9%, ATML -6.4%, MDCO -5.3%, BBOX -5.1%, SLCA -5%, CNHI -4.7%, CG -3.9%, IPHI -3.1%, DORM -2.7%, BDC -2.6%, MA -2.3%, HA -1.7%, AFL -1.7%, GTI -1.6%, CBZ -1.4%, RES -1.3%, GIB -1.2%, DXYN -1.1%, Q -1%, ETN -0.9%, LVLT -0.8%, SNCR -0.6%, SPWR -0.5%, EW -0.5%


    Other news: SFY -13.7% ( Retains Lazard to Advise as to Strategic Alternatives Related to Its Capital Structure ), ZGNX -4.2% ( announces a public offering of 3.8 mln common stock shares), PPP -2.2% (reported a fatal accident involving an employee at its San Dimas mine in Mexico; normal operations continue as co and local authorities investigate the incident), V -1% (in symp with MA results)

    Analyst comments
    : MDXG -1.6% (downgraded to Buy at Needham), POT -0.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James ), ADM -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)

    Briefing.com
  • USA majade pooleliolevad müügitehingud osutusid juunis oodatust nõrgemaks

    US Pending Home Sales (MoM) Jun: -1.80% (est 0.90%; rev prev 0.60%)
    US Pending Home Sales NSA (YoY) Jun: 11.10% (est 11.10%; rev prev 7.90%
  • FEDi sõnum ei viita just kohesele intressimäära tõstmisele

    *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, JOB GAINS `SOLID'
    FED: RATE TO RISE AFTER `SOME FURTHER' JOB MARKET IMPROVEMENT
    FED REPEATS IT WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION
    FED SAYS BUSINESS INVESTMENT, NET EXPORTS STAYED SOFT
  • Facebook prelim $0.50 vs $0.47 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.04 bln vs $3.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate


    FB tulemused üsna ootustesse, aktsia järelkauplemisel -4% @93

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