Börsipäev 3. september
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Aktsiaturud jäid eile volatiilseks, kuid võtsid pärast teisipäevast kukkumist siiski maad tagasi. Ehkki pullidele teeb see rõõmu, oleks selgelt liialt vara kuulutada korrektsioon lõppenuks, sest otseseid põhjuseid eilse tõusu taga oli raske leida. S&P 500 parandas taset 1,8%, Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 0,3% plussis.
USA ADP tööturu küsitlus näitas, et augustis võidi erasektoris luua 190 tuhat uut töökohta, mis oli parem kui juulis registreeritud 177 tuhat ning jäi üsna lähedale konsensuse prognoositud 200 tuhandele ja seega ei andnud analüütikutele väga põhjust oma reedest ootust muuta, kui see jäi mediaani lähedale.
Positiivne meeleolu on kandunud öösel ka Aasia aktsiaturgudele, kus Jaapani Nikkei kauples 0,7% kõrgemal. Jaapani teenindussektori aktiivsusindeks paranes augustis 2,5 punkti 53,7 punkti peale (kõrgeim alates 2013.a sügisest) ning ka Indias viitas teenindussektori PMI indeksi tõus ühe punkti võrra 51,8 punkti peale, et sektori aktiivsus oli kõrgeim alates aprillist. Hiina aktsiaturud on võiduparaadi tõttu täna ja homme suletud, mis kriipsutab investorite murede nimekirjast lühikeseks ajaks ühe põhjuse maha.
Värsked küsitlused Kreekas näitavad valimiste eel peamise opositsioonipartei (Uus Demokraatia) kasvavat poolehoidu. Kui Alexis Tsipras augusti lõpus tagasi astus, eeldati et Syriza valitakse veenva eduga tagasi, kuid Mega TV küsitluse kohaselt hääletaks Uus Demokraatia partei poolt 25,3% vastanutest ning Syriza saaks 25% häältest. Ühe teise küsitluse kohaselt oli Syriza edu 0,4%, kahanedes eelmise reede 1,5% pealt. Kuigi ka Uue Demokraatia erakond hääletas kolmanda abipaketi poolt, ei ole koalitsioonivalitsused üldiselt Kreekas väga pikalt vastu pidanud ja see suurendab poliitilist määramatust ajal kui riigil tuleb aktsepteerida kreeditoride karme nõudmisi.
Tänase börsipäeva raames laekuvad eurotsooni ja USA teenindussektori augustikuu aktiivsusindeksid. Suurimat tähelepanu peaks aga saama Euroopa Keskpanga regulaarne istung, mille raames jäävad intressimäärad tõenäoliselt samaks ning eeldatavalt ei kiirustata ka võlakirjade ostuprogrammi suurendama. Küll aga huvitab turuosalisi, kas keskpank kärbib inflatsiooni prognoose, kas see võib motiveerida neid tulevikus QE-d suurendama ning mida arvab Draghi Hiina majanduse praegusest olukorrast ja võimalikust mõjust eurotsoonile.
10.15 Hispaania teenindussektori PMI (august)
10.30 Rootsi keskpanga intressimäära otsus
10.45 Itaalia teenindussektori PMI (august)
10.50 Prantsusmaa teenindussektori PMI (augusti lõplik)
10.55 Saksamaa teenindussektori PMI (augusti lõplik)
11.00 Eurotsooni teenindussekori PMI (augusti lõplik)
11.30 Suurbritannia teenindussektori PMI (august)
12.00 Eurotsooni jaemüük (juuli)
14.45 Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsus
15.30 Mario Draghi pressikonverents
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
16.45 USA Markiti teenindussektori PMI (augusti lõplik)
17.00 USA teenindussektori ISM (august) -
Erinevalt kasvu aeglustumise märkidest töötlevas tööstuses, läheb Hispaania teenindussektoril jätkuvalt väga hästi
Spanish Markit Services PMI (Aug): 59.6 (est 59.3; prev 59.7)
Markit Composite PMI (Aug): 58.8 (est 57.9 ; prev 58.3) -
Itaalia teenindussektori kasv oli augustis kiirem pea viie ja poole aasta jooksul, millega toetab kogu erasektori aktiivsust.
Italian Markit/ADACI Services PMI (Aug): 54.6 (est 52.5; prev 52.0)
Markit/ADACI Composite PMI (Aug): 55.0 (est 53.1; prev 53.5) -
Prantsuse teenindussektor on erandiks, seal aeglustus kasv seitsme kuu madalaimale tasemele. Saksamaal aga korrigeeeriti tugevamaks.
French Markit Services PMI (Aug F): 50.6 (est 51.8; prev 51.8; 52.0 in July)
-Markit Composite PMI (Aug F): 50.2 (est 51.3 ; prev 51.3; 51.5 in July)
Germany Markit Services PMI (Aug F): 54.9 (est 53.6; prev 53.6; 53.8 in July)
-Markit Composite PMI (Aug F): 55.0 (est 54.0 ; prev 54.0; 53.7 in July) -
Kokkuvõttes näitas eurotsooni erasektor PMI küsitluste kohaselt kiiremait kasvu viimase nelja aasta jooksul
Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 54.4 (Flash 54.3, July 54.0)
Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 54.3 (Flash 54.1, July 53.9) -
EasyJeti aktsia täna +6,5% (@ 1780 penni), kuna suvekuudel tehtud head tulemused võimaldavad ettevõttel tõsta 2015. aasta maksude-eelse kasumi prognoosi 675-700 naela peale varasema 620-660 miljoni pealt. Võrdlusena, aasta varem teenis ettevõte 581 miljonit naela kasumit.
British low-cost airline easyJet raised its full-year profit forecast by around 7 percent after record passenger numbers in August helped to offset the higher costs the group has faced this year.
Viimase 12-kuu jooksul on EasyJeti aktsia kallinenud +30,3% -
Eurotsooni jaemüük kasvas juulis eelmise kuu baasil 0,4%, mis oli ootusega võrreldes marginaalselt vähem (0,4%), kuid juuni langus revideeriti pehmemaks -0,6% pealt -0,2% peale. Aastatagsuega võrreldes kerkis müük 2,7% vs oodatud 2,0%.
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Rootsi kroon on tugenenud täna euro suhtes 0,8%. Rootsi keskpank lubas tänase istungi järel langetada vajadusel intressimäära veel sügavamale miinusesse ja osta veel rohkem võlakirju, kuid kommentaarid inflatsiooni pöördumisest ja tugevast majandusest näivad kummutavat arvamust, et täiendavat lõdvendamist on vaja lähiajal teha.
SWEDEN'S RIKSBANK LEAVES KEY RATE UNCHANGED AT MINUS 0.350%
RIKSBANK SEES CPI AT 0% IN 2015 VS 0.2% EARLIER
RIKSBANK SEES SWEDEN GDP AT 3.1% IN 2015 VS 2.9% IN JULY
RIKSBANK SEES SWEDEN GDP AT 3.4% IN 2016 VS 3.6% IN JULY
RISKBANK: PATH SUGGESTS CHANCE OF LOWERING REPO RATE IN FUTURE
RISKBANK: REPO RATE CAN BE CUT FURTHER
RISKBANK: ROOM FOR FURTHER QE
INGVES SAYS `TREND HAS TURNED' ON INFLATION
INGVES SAYS INFLATION WILL RISE TOWARD 2% DURING 2016 -
Endine Bundesbanki juht ja praegune UBSi nõukogu esimees Axel Weber näeb regiooni majandust võrdlemisi tumedates toonides, kui ei alustata põhjalike reformidega
UBS Chairman Weber Says Europe’s Economy ‘In Eye of Hurricane’
• Perceived calm of European economy is an “illusion,” UBS Chairman Axel Weber says at a conference by Handelsblatt newspaper in Frankfurt on Thursday.
• “In Europe, we’re buying into the illusion that we’re in a resting phase. We are in the eye of the hurricane. The calm we’re currently experiencing is a perceived calm, and as soon as we have these discussions around the Greek elections about whether these promises will be kept, we will be right back at the same discussions we were having before the summer break”
• “The ECB has certainly taken on the responsibility of buying time, but I’m firmly convinced that Europe won’t emerge from these continual crises, these boom and bust cycles, unless we start to drive serious structural reforms” -
Citi hindab värskes strateegiaülevaates, et kõige tõenäolsiem on globaalse majanduse aeglane kasv, kuid riskid on kaldu pigem uue surutise kui kiirenemise suhtes. Euroopas kärbitakse Stoxx 600 sihti.
Combination of slowdown in China, rise in credit spreads and recent price action across financial markets have seen more investors asking if this is the end of the economic and equity market cycle, ie recession. We are reassured by domestic driven growth in the US and Euro Area and the ongoing policy response likely from the PBoC, ECB, BoJ and others, but risks appear to have risen.
We run 4 macro Scenarios, from global recession to accelerating growth. We suggest likely outcomes for European DPS growth and equity ratings (DY) in each. We attach greatest probability to soft growth/global slowdown and tilt towards recession over acceleration. To be bearish, recession needs to be delivered.
Citi equity strategists cut Stoxx 600 end-2016 target to 440 from 505, end-2015 target to 400, citing additional downside risks.New targets imply ~12% rise by end-2015, ~23% rise by end-2016
Citi raises oil & gas to overweight from neutral, sector trades around 40-yr price/book absolute and relative lows. Cuts industrials to underweight from neutral, sector trades around 40-yr price/book absolute and relative highs. Recommend ‘delivery strategies’ such as dividend momentum; banks, media have positive relative dividend trends; trade on a DY premium to the market. -
Keegi ei oska otseselt öelda, kuidas see rahapoliitiline eksperiment lõppeb. Via Citi:
Ultimately, there are significant economic, financial market, institutional and social stability risks in ending the monetary experiment of the post-financial crisis years to allow economies to “find their level”. Given the debt burden and the likely impact on additional disinflation pressures, an end to the global policy put could put significant stress on political and social stability in all key regions of the world. Perhaps that would have a positive outcome, but it could also be a rough ride and we suspect that policy makers will continue to try to avert such a scenario, especially given the cumulative actions of the last few years. -
Erinevalt BofAMLi klientide statistikast, mis viitas rekordilisele netoostule augustis, on AAII väikeinvestorite küsitluse järgi ameeriklased üldiselt augustis oma sularahapositsiooni suurendanud. Via WSJ
According to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, mom-and-pop investors trimmed their equity allocations in their investment portfolios by 2.4 percentage points last month to a 10-month low of 65%. While investors have been dialing back their stock exposure over the past few months, their equity allocation has stayed above the historical average of 60% for 29 straight months.
The AAII August survey showed cash holdings rose 1.6% to 18.7% in August. That’s the fourth month in five that cash holdings have increased. Still, cash allocation continues to be below the historical norm of 24%.
Meanwhile, bond and bond fund allocations rose fractionally to 16.3% in August, exceeding their historical average of 16% -
USA teiseks suurim pensionifond on kaalumas 55% aktsiaosakaalu vähendamist ning koguvaradest 12% ehk üle 20 miljardi dollari nihutamist võlakirjadesse, hedge fondidesse ja teistesse instrumentidesse, et vähendada avatust aktsiaturu riskidele.
Giant U.S. Pension Fund Calstrs to Propose Shift Away From Stocks, Bonds -
Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressimäärad ootuspäraselt samaks.
--Main refi rate +0.05%
--Deposit rate -0.20%
--Marginal lending facility 0.30% -
USA möödunud nädala töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust pisut kõrgemad
July Trade Balance -$41.9 bln vs -$42.7 bln Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to -$45.2 bln from -$43.8 bln
Initial Claims 282K vs 273K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 270K from 271K -
EKP kärbib prognoose nähes inflatsiooni kiirenemas varasemast eglasemalt. EKP tõstab maksimaalse osakaalu suurust emissioonis
DRAGHI: DATA SHOW CONTINUED, SOMEWHAT WEAKER RECOVERY
DRAGHI SAYS EMERGING MKT SLOWDOWN TO WEIGH ON GLOBAL GROWTH
DRAGHI: PREMATURE TO SAY IF RECENT EVENT TO HAVE LASTING EFFECT
DRAGHI: ECB CAN ADJUST SIZE, DURATION OF QE IF NEEDED
DRAGHI SAYS H2 GDP TO BE BROADLY SIMILAR TO
DRAGHI SAYS ISSUE SHARE LIMIT FOR QE RAISED TO 33% FROM 25%
ECB FORECASTS 2015 GDP GROWTH AT 1.4% VS 1.5%
ECB FORECASTS 2016 GDP GROWTH AT 1.7% VS 1.9%
ECB FORECASTS 2017 GDP GROWTH AT 1.8% VS 2%
ECB FORECASTS 2015 AVERAGE INFLATION AT 0.1% VS 0.3%
ECB FORECASTS 2016 AVERAGE INFLATION AT 1.1% VS 1.5%
ECB FORECASTS 2017 AVERAGE INFLATION AT 1.7% VS 1.8%
EUR/USD -
Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance/SSS: OOMA +10.5%, MEI +6.2%, SEAC +4.5%, PLNT +1.4%, OXM +0.5%, CPB +0.5%, COST +0.4%
M&A news: LCI MM +29.1% (to be acquired by Verizon's (VZ) AOL for $1.75/share), +15.4% (to acquire Kremers Urban Pharmaceuticals for $1.23 bln; expects the deal to be accretive to adjusted EPS in FY16 in the mid-high single digits and 20-25% in FY17)
Select EU related names showing strength: ASML +3.1%, ERIC +1.9%, AZN +1.8%, SNY +1.6%, MU +1%, NVO +0.9%
Other news: GERN +19.3% (announces publication of two papers in The New England Journal of Medicine that highlight the potential of imetelstat in hematologic malignancies ), ISR +9% (extended its international distribution agreement with Karlheinz Goehl-Medizintechnik Goehl), ACAD +9% (submits a New Drug Application to the FDA seeking approval for NUPLAZID for the treatment of psychosis associated with Parkinson's disease), CYTX +7.6% (announced that the first patient has been enrolled and treated in the ADRESU trial), SUNE +3.8% (Bloomberg profiles interview CEO who indicated cash flows might be coming in 2016), TTPH +3.2% (announces that the FDA has granted Qualified Infectious Disease Product and Fast Track designations for IV TP-271), SYT +2.8% (authorizes $2 bln share repurchase program; divests seed business; reiterates the full year guidance), MNOV +2.5% (reports the first advanced ALS patient enrolled in Phase 2 clinical trial of MN-166), ARMH +2.3% (IBM (IBM) announced an expansion of its Internet of Things platform -- called IBM IoT Foundation - through an integration with ARM (ARMH)), DOW +2% (commences its exchange offer for the split-off of a significant portion of its chlorine value chain ), NAVB +2% (awarded a $1.8M fast track NIH SBIR grant for the evaluation of Tc99m tilmanocept), TSLA +1.9% (Musk tweets "Model 3, our smaller and lower cost sedan will start production in about 2 years. Fully operational Gigafactory needed."), ATRO +0.9% (selected to supply the Passenger Service Units, on a new family of long-range Boeing (BA) 777X aircraft), NUE +0.8% (announced $900 mln share repurchase program)
Analyst comments: FMS +3.4% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), FRAN +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush), SFUN +2% (upgraded to Buy at Credit Agricole), HAL +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at HSBC), SLB +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), FR +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James), EBAY +1% (upgraded to Neutral at Piper Jaffray)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MIND -14.7%, FIVE -8.2%, JOY -7.8%, CTLT -6.8%, VRNT -6.1%, XCRA -4%, NEOS -3.1%, CIEN -1.1%, LE -0.5%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GDX -1.6%, SLW -1.5%, GFI -1.4%, NEM -1.3%, AEM -1.2%, AU -1.2%, GG -1.2%
Other news: DSKX -15% (still checking), PBMD -10% (pulling back after recent run), RLI -2.2% (announced that President and COO Michael Stone will retire, effective Dec. 31, 2015; EVP Craig Kliethermes to assume that role at the beginning of 2016), DV -2.1% (disclosed that on August 28, 2015, it received a request for documents and information regarding published employment outcomes and earnings of DeVry University graduates from the Federal Student Aid office of the Department of Education), ETH -1.8% (co intends to raise up to $250 mln of long-term debt financing), SDRL -1.3% (still checking), GPRO -1.2% (cont weakness), NFLX -1.2% (cont weakness), CAT -0.8% (in symp with JOY), HY -0.8% (co expects global lift truck markets expected to decline in H2 2015, with demand levels mixed by region)
Analyst comments: KERX -6.8% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup), RARE -3.5% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup), EMR -1.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman), SDRL -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), PYPL -0.1% (initiated with a Underperform at Credit Agricole)
Briefing.com -
#EURUSD
EURO DROPS TO TWO-WEEK LOW VS DOLLAR OF $1.1155 AFTER DRAGHI FLAGS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EURO ZONE GROWTH -
Vastus küsimusele, mida paljud otsivad
ECB Draghi: There are no limits to gearing up monetary policy -
Rootsi keskpank peab varsti oma vastulöögi andma?
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EUR/USD forming the classic "Draghi Mic-Drop" formation.
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Üsna oluline koht prognoosides on seik, et euro vahetuskurssi dollariga toodi alllapoole võrreldes varasema 1,12 dollariga, mis tähendab seda, et kui euro juhtub kauplema kõrgemal, loob see täiendava downside riski majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooni ootustes
ECB FORECASTS ASSUME EURO AT $1.11 IN 2015, $1.10 IN 2016 -
USA teenindussektori ISM alanes augustis oodatust vähem ja ajalooliselt jääb tase kõrgeks, samas paistab silma tööhõive indeksi suurem kukkumine
Aug. ISM Non-Manufacturing Falls to 59.0; Est. 58.2 (50.3 in July)
• Business activity fell to 63.9 vs 64.9 prior month
• New orders fell to 63.4 vs 63.8
• Employment fell to 56.0 vs 59.6
• Supplier deliveries fell to 52.5 vs 53.0
• Inventory change fell to 54.5 vs 57.0
• Prices paid fell to 50.8 vs 53.7
• Backlog of orders rose to 56.5 vs 54.0
• New export orders fell to 52.0 vs 56.5
• Imports rose to 51.5 vs 50.5
• Inventory sentiment rose to 69.0 vs 63.5
