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Börsipäev 9. september

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  • Ühendriikide aktsiaturud avanesid pärast eelmise nädala langust tugevas plussis ja kuigi pärast seda anti osa võidust tagasi, aitas ralli sessiooni lõpus tõsta turuosaliste kindlustunnet ning tõenäoliselt tingida ka lühikeste positsioonide katmist. S&P 500 lõpetas 2,5% kõrgemal ning positiivne oli päev ka Euroopas, kus Stoxx 600 sulgus 1,2% rohelises.

    Investorite tuju aitas eile tõsta kõrgemal lõpetanud Hiina aktsiaturg ning oodatust paremad makromajanduse näitajad Euroopas ja Ühendriikides. Eurotsooni teise kvartali SKP kasv revideeriti arvatust tugevamaks, mis kergitas eelmise aasta sama perioodi baasil kasvutempo 1,2% pealt 1,5% peale ning samuti üllatas Saksamaa impordi ja ekspordi hüpe, kui pärast juuni langust oodati vaid mõõdukat taastumist. Ühendriikides jõudis väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks kolme kuu kõrgeimale tasemele, seejuures tegi tööhõivet peegeldav indeks seitsme kuu tipu, mis lisab kindlustunnet tööturul valitsevate trendide suhtes. Sama kinnitas ka FEDi koostatud tööturu tingimuste indeks, mis näitas augustis suurimat tõusu alates jaanuarist.

    Pidu on jätkumas Aasia aktsiaturgudel, kus Jaapani Nikkei kauples kirjutamise hetkel 6,5% kõrgemal ning Hiinas jätkas Shanghai Composite eilset tõusu 2,3% ralliga. Üheks võimalikus toetavaks teguriks võis olla Hiina rahandusministeeriumi teisipäeva õhtusse jäänud artikkel, milles lubatakse majandust elavdada jõulisema proaktiivse fiskaalpoliitikaga, laskumata seejuures täpsematesse detailidesse.

    Tänane majandusuudiste valik jääb tagasihoidlikuks, kui Euroopas selgub Suurbritannia juulikuu tööstustoodang ning Ühendriikides avaldatakse JOLTS tööturu küsitlus, mis vaatab tagasi muutustele juulikuus. Eesti aja järgi kell 20.00 algab Apple’i üritus, mille staariks peaks olema uus iPhone.

    USA aktsiaturu indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,8% kõrgemal.

    11.30 Suurbritannia tööstustoodang (juuli)
    17.00 USA JOLTS tööturu küsitlus (juuli)
    17.00 Kanada keskpanga intressimäära otsus
    18.30 Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu liige Praet esineb kõnega

  • Pärast kahe kuu pikkust langust aitasid soodustused ning muud stiimulid Hiina autoturgu augustis stabiliseerida. Link

    Retail deliveries of cars, SUVs and multipurpose vehicles increased 0.6 percent to 1.44 million units in August, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Sales had declined in each of the two previous months, with purchases falling to a 17-month low in July. Deliveries in August climbed 11 percent compared with July.
  • RYANAIR RAISES FY NET PROFIT OUTLOOK BY 25% TO EUR 1.18-1.23B. The company also raised its full-year traffic target 1 percent to 104 million passengers.

    Ryanairi kasumiprognoosi tõstmine tuleneb oodatust kõrgemate piletihindadega aset leidnud tugevast piletimüügist suveperioodil.
  • USA suurim kaubamaja, Macy’s, kärbib 2016. aasta alguses kaupluste arvu 35-40 poe võrra (märkusena, suletavad poed moodustavad 1% ettevõtte müügitulust). Kahjumlikult tegutsevate poodide sulgemise põhjuseks on varasemast suurem keskendumine füüsiliste poodide asemel internetipoodidele. Märkusena, Macy’s poodide võrgustik ulatub 770 poeni.

  • Citi ökonomisti arvates on tõenäoline, et Hiinast ja arenevatest turgudest käivitub järgmine globaalne majandussurutis

    * Global recession may now be the most likely outcome over the next few years, Citi chief economist Willem Buiter writes in note.
    * Evidence for a global slowdown is everywhere; recession likely to originate in EMs in general with China in particular at risk of a hard landing
    * China’s official GDP data unreliable; ‘true’ GDP growth could be as low as 4%
    * Policy response in the EMs will be too little and too late to avert a recession
    * Recession in China, other EMs would likely slow DM growth
    * For technical and/or political reasons, most DMs have limited stabilization ammunition at hand
    * If Fed raises its policy rate this year, it will likely cut it again next year
    * We are likely to see more QE in U.S., UK, euro area, Japan
  • Audi tegevjuhi sõnul on Hiina autoturul näha märke paranemisest, kuid ühe kuu müügist on vähe, et prognoose tõstma hakata

    *Audi saw “pretty good showroom traffic” in China in August, CEO Rupert Stadler says at Hamburg press club late Tuesday.
    * “But one swallow doesn’t make a summer; that’s why my forecast will remain cautious” for China
    * Chinese mkt to normalize, growing middle class to ensure growth in mid-, long-term
    * European car market showing “substantial recovery” this yr; Germany looking much better than co. anticipated at start of yr
    * A3 production to start at beginning of Oct. in Brazil, where co. recording growth against mkt trend
    * Very optimistic on reaching 2m vehicle sales target by 2020 after co. saw 63% growth in 5 yrs, above 900,000 deliveries by mid-yr
    * 40% of models to be modernized in next 12-18 mos
    * Co. “will earn money with” electric crossover Audi E-tron Quattro to be presented at IAA fair in Frankfurt next wk, won’t be called Q6
    * Co. to ramp up A3 E-tron daily production to 90 cars, then probably 100 from 60 originally envisioned
    * Stadler didn’t answer question whether he’s in line for VW CFO job: “We have a lot of plans at Audi, and it is my desire that we complete them in an orderly way”
  • Hiina peaministri sõnul seisab riigi majandus silmitsi negatiivse survega, kuid usutavasti suudetakse erinevate meetmetega siiski keskkonda stabiliseerida ning kiiret kasvu säilitada

    PREMIER LI KEQIANG SAYS CHINA ECONOMY FACES DOWNWARD PRESSURE
    LI SAYS 1H CHINA JOB DATA INDICATES ECONOMY IN REASONABLE RANGE
    LI SAYS THERE ARE POSITIVE CHANGES IN CHINA ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
    LI SAYS CHINA ECONOMY SHOWS GOOD TREND WHILE STABILIZING
    PREMIER LI SAYS CHINA TO PROMOTE REFORM, RESTRUCTURING
    PREMIER LI SAYS CHINA TO ALSO ENHANCE TARGETED CONTROL
    LI SAYS CHINA ABLE TO KEEP MID-, HIGH-SPEED GROWTH
    LI SAYS CHINA TOOK MEASURES IN JULY TO STABILIZE FINANCAL MKT
    LI SAYS CHINA JULY MEASURES AIM TO PREVENT RISK FROM SPREADING
    PREMIER LI: DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES LOWERS CHINA'S TARIFF INCOME, PUTS FINANCES UNDER PRESSURE
    CHINA LI: WE DON'T WANT TO DEPRECIATE YUAN TO BOOST EXPORTS.
  • Suurbritannia tööstustoodang oli kolmanda kvartali alguses arvatust nõrgem kahanedes MoM -1,4% vs prognoositud -0,2%. Kui jätta välja energiatööstus, siis sarnane trend valitses ka töötlevas tööstuses (MoM -0,8% vs prognoositud 0,2%), mis ühtib sellega, mida PMI on indikeerinud.

    Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse toodangu muutus võrreldes aastatagusega (valge) ning töötleva tööstuse PMI (kollane)
  • Erko Rebane
    Citi ökonomisti arvates on tõenäoline, et Hiinast ja arenevatest turgudest käivitub järgmine globaalne majandussurutis
    ...
    * China’s official GDP data unreliable; ‘true’ GDP growth could be as low as 4%

    No selle väite puhul on mul küsimus: kas Hiina statistika oli ka varem usaldusväärne? Kui ei olnud (tõenäoliselt on ta praegu aastatetagusest usaldusväärsem), siis mis muutub? Muutub ainult väljahõigatud statistika, tegelik kasv jääb ju samaks!
  • gigantide võitlus:

    6. august: Cheniere Energy: Carl Icahn discloses 8.18% active stake in 13D filing; intends to have discussions with management and board

    9. september: Cheniere Energy: Jim Chanos unveils new short position in LNG on CNBC
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    PLAY +9.7%, CONN +6.5%, RYAAY +4.7%, FCEL +4.2%, AGX +2.1%, TIVO +1.6%, HDS +1.5%, CASY +1.3%, KFY +0.9%, CLLS +0.5%

    Select China related names showing strength: JKS +5.3%, SOHU +3.2%, JD +2.9%, SFUN +2.7%, BABA +1.8%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AKS +4.5%, RIO +3.4%, VALE +3.2%, FCX +2.3%, BHP +1.0%

    Other news: AKBA +87.5% (announced positive top-line results from its Phase 2 study of vadadustat in dialysis patients with anemia related to chronic kidney disease), VTAE +30.4% (announced positive top-line results from initial phase 1 study of first-in-class RORyt Inhibitor VTP-43742 in autoimmune disorders), ACRX +18.1% (announces that ARX-04 met primary and secondary endpoints in a multi-center), BIOC +12.4% (allowance of U.S. Patent 9,128,082 entitled, devices and methods of cell capture and analysis), SBGL +10.2% (announces the proposed acquisition of the Rustenburg Operations from Anglo American Platinum Limited (AGPPY) for an upfront consideration of R1.5 bln), PLX +9.5% (announces positive interim data from its phase I/II clinical trial of 1mg/kg of PRX-102), NURO +9.1% (announced that the Quell Wearable Pain Relief Device is now commercially available on Amazon (AMZN)), PSTI +5.3% (concludes meeting with the FDA for filing an IND for PLX-R18; targets early 2016 to launch trial), BTU +4.4% (cont vol pre-mkt), SOHU +3.4% (rebounding modestly after recent sell off), DDD +1.9% (still checking), CLR +1.6% (announced plans to reduce its 2015 capital budget by $300-350 million more than previously approved), BDSI +1.4% (BioDelivery Sciences and Endo Pharma (ENDP) present new data on their investigational product, Buprenorphine HCl Buccal Film for chronic pain management), NFLX +1.1% (set to to launch in South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan early next year), FB +1% (updates mobile features for Facebook Pages)

    Analyst comments: SUNE +2.7% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), ETFC +2.6% (upgraded to Buy at Evercore ISI), ANTH +2.5% (initiated with a Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey ), DPZ +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), GS +2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), CSIQ +1.9% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), FIT +1.9% (initiated with a Outperform at FBN Securities), TSLA +1.9% (initiated with Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $340), FSLR +1.8% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), CELG +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), KPTI +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), ENLC +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), INTC +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee CRT)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    MW -5.3%, KLIC -5.3%, PBY -1.3%

    Other news: TTPH -79.2% (announced eravacycline did not achieve primary endpoint in pivotal portion of complicated urinary tract infections Trial), ZQK -79.1% (commences voluntary proceedings for relief under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code), FLXN -29.1% (reported top-line data from pivotal phase 2b clinical trial for FX006 in patients with moderate to severe osteoarthritis (OA) knee pain; primary endpoint of study not met), AQXP -13.1% (announced proposed public offering of $75 million of common stock), CMRX -5.2% (provided clinical development update for Brincidofovir, stating that SUPPRESS data continues to be expected in early 2016), FPRX -3.4% (initiated patient dosing in its Phase 1a/1b clinical trial, evaluating the immunotherapy combination of FPA008 with Opdivo), LNG -3.1% (Jim Chanos unveils new short position in LNG on CNBC), YHOO -1.9% (IRS determined not to grant Yahoo's request for a private letter ruling relating to the spin-off of its Alibaba (BABA) stake), UAL -0.9% (named Oscar Munoz as President and CEO; announced that its executive vice president of communications and government affairs and its senior vice president of corporate and government affairs have stepped down)

    Analyst comments: MNKD -8.6% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), YGE -6.4% (downgraded to Sell at ROTH Capital; tgt $0.50), PII -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow), THRX -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), TEX -0.7% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan ), CMA -0.6% (initiated with an Underperform at BMO Capital ), R -0.6% (downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • augustis oli vabade töökohtade arv USAs üle ootuste kõrge

    USA JOLTs Job Openings for July 5.75M vs 5.29M consensus estimate. The prior reading was revised from an initial 5.25M to 5.32M.

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