Börsipäev 13. oktoober
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Ühendriikides tähistatud Kolumbuse päeva tõttu kujunes käive sealsetel börsidel madalaimaks alates juunist ning see muutis sessiooni võrdlemisi vaikseks. Kommunaalteenuste ja tarbekaupade sektorid aitasid S&P 500 indeksil lõpetada 0,1% kõrgemal, samal ajal aga oli energiasektor -1,1% langusega suurim kaotaja, reageerides WTI nafta -5,4% langusele. Toornafta suurima languse viimase kuue nädala jooksul tingis OPECi kuine raport, mille kohaselt tootsid organisatsiooni liikmed eelmisel kuul 31,57 miljonit barrelit naftat ehk 109,0 tuhat barrelit päevas enam kui augustis ning enim alates 2012.a. Ka Euroopas kulgesid aktsiaturud valdavalt külgsuunas, juhtides Stoxx 600 indeksi -0,3% madalamale.
Majandusuudiste valik oli kesine ning selle asemel otsiti vihjeid rahapoliitika kohta FEDi liikmete kõnedest, kuid sealgi ei pakkunud kommentaarid suurt üllatust. Chicago FEDi president Charles Evans ja Atlanta FEDi president Dennis Lockhart kinnitasid oma varasemat seisukohta. Lockhart näeb endiselt tänavu võimalust intressimäära tõsta, kuna enne detsembri istungit laekub veel palju olulisi makronäitajaid. Evansi hinnangul sobiks intressimäära tõstmisega alustada 2016.a keskpaigas, kuid see pole kivisse raiutud kuupäev, eriti kuna inflatsiooni eesmärgi saavutamine saab tema hinnangul olema keeruline.
Pärast USA turgude sulgumist esinenud Föderaalreservi nõukogu liige Lael Brainard hindas hetkel negatiivseid riske USA majanduse jaoks suuremaks kui võimalust positiivseks üllatuseks. See toetab tema arvates teesi, et keskpank peaks aitama hoida majandusel toetavat kätt all ega tohiks kiirustada intressimäära tõstmisega. Tema sõnul on viimastel kuudel aset leidnud tingimuste karmistumine finantsturgudel juba iseenesest võrdväärne mitme intressimäära tõstmisega.
Aasias kauplesid aktsiaturud kerges miinuse, näidates minimaalset reaktsiooni Hiina septembrikuu kaubandusstatistikale. Import kahanes toorainete hinnalanguse ja vähenenud nõudluse tõttu mullusega võrreldes -20,4%, mida oli rohkem kui oodatud -16,0%, kuid positiivsest küljest aeglustus ekspordi aastane langus -5,5% pealt -3,7% ning kujunes sellega paremaks kui prognoositud -6,0%.
Euroopa ja USA sessiooni ajal saavad tähtsamad majandusuudised olema Saksamaa ja Suurbritannia septembrikuu inflatsiooni numbrid ning Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeks, mis peaks langema seitsmendat kuud järjest. Ühendriikides selgub väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks.
09.00 Saksamaa inflatsioon (septembri lõplik)
10.30 Rootsi inflatsioon (september)
11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (september)
12.00 Saksamaa investorite kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
13.00 USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (september)
15.00 FEDi Bullard esineb kõnega -
Saksamaa septembri inflatsioon kinnitati 0,0% peal
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SABMiller on otsustanud AB InBevi viimase pakkumise (44 penni aktsia kohta 69 mld naela ehk $106 mld) vastu võtta ning ettevõtte aktsia kauplemas Londonis +8,7% kõrgemal @3935 penni. AB InBev aktsia kaupleb samal ajal Brüsselis +3,5% kõrgemal @ €101,70.
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EUR/USD on tagasi üle 1,1400 dollari taseme ning valmistab peavalu EKP-le, kes vajab majanduskasvu ja inflatsiooni prognooside realiseerimiseks järgmisel kahel aastal vähemalt 1,10 taset. Morgan Stanley arvates aitaks euro kallinemist peatada euroala hoiustamise intressimäära langetamine sügavamale miinusesse, kuid see on ebatõenäoline arvestades Draghi varasemaid kommentaare, et alampiir on saavutatud.
MS:While lowering the deposit rate would likely be the most effective measure to limit the scope for EUR appreciation, it would weigh on banks and asset managers. It would also go against the message that the ECB has repeatedly stressed: the deposit rate is at the lower bound. Extending or scaling up PSPP would likely see the marginal impact of purchases decline. If the pace of purchases was to be increased, we expect a more immediate impact, but implementation would be more difficult compared to extending the duration of the programme.
EUR/USD -
Suurbritannia inflatsioon püsis septembris toitu, kütust, alkoholi ja tubakat arvestamata 1,0% peal
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Saksamaa analüütikute jooksvat majandushinnangut kajastav indeks alanes oktoobris 67,5 punkti pealt 55,2 punktile (oodati 64,0) ning järgmise kuue kuu väljavaate hinnangut kajastav indeks 12,1 punkti pealt 1,9 punkti peale (oodati 6,5). VW skandaali ning arenevate turgude jahtumise keskel ei tule ilmselt üllatusena, et ZEWi küsitletud 350 finantseksperti tundsid Saksamaa majanduse suhtes oktoobris mõnevõrra skeptilisemana.
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Erinevalt OPECist, kes leiab, et 2016.a teises pooles võiks naftaturg olla tasakaalus, usub IEA oma tänases ülevaates, et naftaturg jääb ka tuleval aastal ülepakkumisse, langetades ühest küljest 2016.a nõudlust tulenevalt IMFi madalamatest SKP kasvuprognoosidest ning teisalt tõotab Iraan sanktsioonide kadudes tuua turule täiendavaid barreleid naftat
•World oil demand 2016 fcast was revised to 95.7m b/d from 95.8m b/d in Paris-based Intl Energy Agency’s latest monthly report.
• 2015 world demand was revised to 94.5 from 94.4m b/d
• Demand growth in 2016 est. 1.3% y/y or 1.2m b/d, revised from 1.4m b/d
• Non-OPEC supply 2016 was revised to 57.8 m b/d from 57.7m b/d
• Call on OPEC crude 2016 was revised to 31.1 m b/d from 31.3m b/d
• Call on OPEC crude 2015 was unrevised at 29.7m b/d
• OPEC crude production rose by 90k b/d in Sept. to 31.72m b/d
• World oil supply held steady near 96.6m b/d in September as a drop in output from the US, and other producers outside of Opec, was offset by increasing in output from the cartel itself -
USA väikeettevõtete kindlustunde indeks püsis septembris stabiilsena, kuigi analüütikud ootasid sentimendi langust 95,5 punktile.
Ja vastupidiselt valitsuse koostatud üleriigilisele tööturu raportile, mis viitas kahel viimasel kuul aeglustunud töökohtade loomisele, näitas NFIB küsitlus, et väikefirmade seas polnud säärast efekti näha ning töökohtade loomine oli kõrgeim viimase aasta jooksul. Samuti näitas küsitlus, et palkate tõstmist plaanivate vastajate osakaal liikus 3 punkti võrra kõrgemale 16 punkti peale, mis on kriisijärgsel perioodi kohta kõrge tase. -
JNJ arvab, et firma aktsiad on odavad ning kavatseb ligi 4% kogumahust tagasi osta
Johnson & Johnson announces a $10 bln share repurchase program.The company intends to finance the share repurchase program through issuance of debt. -
Kuigi S&P 500 firmade vabarahavoog oli teises kvartalis väikseim alates 2009.a, jätkavad ettevõtted aktsiate tagasiostusid ajalooliselt kõrgete mahtude juures, mis tähendab seda, et nende finantseerimiseks ei piisa enam sisemisest rahavoost, vaid selleks tuleb võtta võlgu/kulutada raha reservi. Via Factset:
The aggregate Buybacks to Free Cash Flow ratio for the S&P 500 exceeded 100% for the first time since October 2009. The ratio hit 108% on a TTM basis at the end of Q2, which represented a 12.9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 42% increase year-over-year. The 10-year median ratio was 72.2%. -
Johnson & Johnson suudab vaatamata oodatust nõrgemale müügitulule lüüa analüütikute EPSi ootust ning tõstab pisut majandusaasta väljavaadet (aprillis langetati $6.12-6.27 pealt $6.04-6.19 peale)
Johnson & Johnson prelim Q3 $1.49 vs $1.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $17.1 bln vs $17.46 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Johnson & Johnson raises FY15 $6.15-6.20 from $6.10-6.20 vs $6.18 Capital IQ Consensus
JNJ Q3 EPSi ootuse muutus (punane) ja aktsia hind -
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AXN +23.1%, SAP +5.8%, JNJ +1.1% (also announces a $10 bln share repurchase program), FAST +0.5%, (light volume).
M&A related news: WPP +37.2% (Wausau Paper to be acquired by SCA for $10.25/share, or ~$513 mln), BUD +2.2% (SABMiller plc and Anheuser-Busch InBev reach agreement in principle on the key terms of a possible recommended offer).
SABMiller / Anheuser-Busch InBev related names trading higher: TAP +12.5%, MO +0.4% .
Other news: PLX +29.6% (Protalix BioTherapeutics sells its share in the collaboration agreement for ELELYSO to commercialization partner Pfizer for $36 mln; PFE also agreed to make a $10 mln investment in exchange for 5,649,079 shares), AEZS +15.4% (reports the independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board has recommended its pivotal Phase 3 ZoptEC study, continue as planned), UNXL +9.6% (extending yesterday's rebound), GTXI +5.9% (Receives FDA Clearance to Initiate Clinical Trial in Stress Urinary Incontinence), YECO +6% ( Wins Contract to Service Zhengzhou City Airport Zone; Potential Revenue To Company of $55 Million Over Five Years), FRO +5.6% (still checking), PACB +3.4% (confirmed earnings release date will be Oct 22 after the close), PSTG +3% (recent IPO), ADMS +2.9% (reports findings from nonclinical studies, that demonstrate the potential of ADS-5102 for the treatment of multiple sclerosis symptoms), PTLA +2.5% (Announces FDA Grants Fast Track Designation to Betrixaban for Prevention of Blood Clots in Acute Medically Ill Patients), CEL +2.3% (still checking), ETP +1.8% (favorable commentary on Monday's Mad Money), TWOU +1.1% (following 5pt move lower on Citron report; defended at First Analysis Sec), BMRN +1% (presents previously announced six-month data from the first three cohorts of its Phase 2 study of vosoritide), YNDX +0.9% (Yandex N.V. and Microsoft announce strategic cooperation agreement), NOK +0.9% (announces major TD-LTE- advanced deal with China Mobile), AMGN +0.8% (presents additional findings from its exploratory Phase 2 trial of romosozumab that showed increased estimated bone strength at the spine and hip; results from Phase 3 FREEDOM study of Prolia (denosumab): Treatment for up to 10 years showed that the overall incidence of adverse events and serious AEs remained consistent), CHK +0.7% (names R. Brad Martin as its non-executive Board Chairman, effective immediately), BMRN +0.2% (favorable commentary on Monday's Mad Money).
Analyst comments: TRCO +1% (initiated with a Buy at Evercore ISI), TOL +0.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), POT +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein), CGNX +0.5% (initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), SWHC +0.4% (resumed with a Outperform at Wedbush), MTX +0.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts)
Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FMC -9.4%, R -6.4%, AIXG -6.3%, DFRG -4.9%, SMSI -4.8%, (thinly traded), XRX -1.5%, (expects Q3 charge of approx $240 mln related to Health Enterprise medical platform; Says Adjusted EPS will be in line with prior guidance of $0.22-0.24), MDXG -0.4%.
European financial names trading lower: HSBC -4.1%, BCS -3.7% (to name former JPMorgan banker Jes Staley as its new CEO, according to reports), RBS -2.4%, SAN -2.2%, CS -1.9%, DB -1.9%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -2.9%, BHP -2.9%, MT -2%, KGC -2%, RIO -1.9%, FCX -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, AEM -1.5%, SLW -1.4%, NEM -1.4%, GLD -0.7%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: BP -2.2%, PBR -2.2%, STO -1.9%, RDS.A -1.8% (Times details news that Shell (RDS.A) plans to sell some North Sea assets), TOT -1.5%, SDRL -1.5%, .
A few Airline names are lower following Sept metrics/analyst actions: AAL -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI), ALK -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI) SKYW -1.5% (reports September 2015 block hours decreased 11.5% from prior year to 162,742 (; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), JBLU -1.3% (eports September traffic, showing an increase in RPMs of 13.3% Y/Y to ~3.09 bln, on a capacity increase of 13.1%; downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), UAL -1.4%
Other news: CANF -6.2% (announces $4.8 million registered direct offering; will issue 1,109,196 registered ADS at a purchase price of $4.35 per ADS), COLL -5.4% (announces the FDA will not be able to complete its review of the New Drug Application for Xtampza), TC -4.7% (reports concentrate production for Mount Milligan for Q3 was 31.7 thousand dry tonnes; cold sold 75.4K ounces vs 57.9K ounces in Q2), EOX -3.3% (borrowing base under its revolving credit facility has been decreased from $200 mln to $120 mln as part of the regularly scheduled semi-annual redetermination by its lenders), FIG -2.6% (late weakness on reports that the company is planning on closing macro Michael Novogratz hedge fund), HTWR -2.6% (has begun investigating causes of reported adverse events in certain clinical trial patients following discussions with its trial investigators; target lowered to $45 from $60 at Northland), NVO -2.3% (still checking), CCL -0.9% (Expands to Four Cruise Brands in China, Accelerates Market Leadership with Additional Ships Serving Chinese Travelers in 2017), LLY -0.6% (following 8% pullback yesterday on evacetrapib discontinuation news).
Analyst comments: ACI -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan)
Briefing.com -
Mõned Bullardi kommentaarid
BULLARD: IT'S A `GOOD SIGN' THAT IMF DIDN'T CUT CHINA FORECAST
BULLARD: ST. LOUIS FED PROJECTS INFLATION ABOVE 2% BY END-2016
BULLARD SAYS EMERGING MARKETS ARE READY FOR FED RATE LIFTOFF
BULLARD SAYS CHINA EXPECTED TO SLOW BUT TO AVOID HARD LANDING
BULLARD: CONTINUED LOOSE FED POLICY COULD CREATE FUTURE BUBBLES
BULLARD: POLICY TO BE EXTREMELY ACCOMMODATIVE FOR 2-3 YEARS
BULLARD: EQUITIES SEEM TO HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL VALUATIONS
S&P 500 ja 12 kuu ettevaatav PE -
Intel prelim Q3 $0.64 vs $0.59 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $14.47 bln vs $14.22 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
INTC +1,3%, @32,30
