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Börsipäev 20. oktoober

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  • Sessioon Ühendriikides jäi eile volatiilseks, kud lõpuks said oma tahtmise siiski ostjad, kes suutsid S&P 500 indeksi juhtida vaatamata Morgan Stanley oodatust oluliselt nõrgematele tulemustele poole protsendisest kaotusest tagasi nulli. Laiapõhjaline indeks on jõudnud taas üleostetud taseme lähedale, kuid viimasel paaril nädalal on pullid näidanud väga vähest riskikartlikkust. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 0,3% võiduga.

    Hiina kolmanda kvartali SKP ning septembrikuu jaemüügi ja tööstustoodangu kõrval jäi Ühendriikide majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks teisejärguliseks, kuid sellegi puhul väärib mainimist positiivse momentumi jätkumine, kui indeks kerkis oktoobris kolme punkti võrra 64 punkti peale (oodati 62). Kindlustunde väärtus varieerub nullist saja punktini ning üle 50 jõudnud number näitab seda, et suurem osa vastajatest hindab olukorda pigem positiivseks kui negatiivseks. Praegune tase märgib majade ehitajate kõrgeimat kindlustunnet viimase 10a jooksul. Jooksva hinnangu indeks kerkis kolme punkti võrra 70 punktile, järgmise kuue kuu hinnangut kajastav indeks hüppas seitse punkti 75 punkti peale ning ostjate külastatavuse aktiivsust kajastav indeks püsis muutumatuna 47 punkti peal. Viimane on siiski koostatud pisut teise skaala alusel ning seal ei saa juhinduda 50 punkti piirist.



    Tänane majandusuudiste valik on Euroopas teisejärguline, Ühendriikides seevastu aitavad alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade statistika näidata, kas kõrge kindlustunne on ka reaalsetes müüginumbrites peegeldumas. Kahe FEDi regionaalse presidendi kõrval võtab täna sõna ka Janet Yellen, kuid raske on öelda, kas ta üritust sissejuhatavas kõnes puudutab üldse rahapoliitikat. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused Lockheed Martin, Verizon ja Yahoo!

    09.00 Saksamaa tootjahinnaindeks (september)
    09.00 Soome töötuse määr (september)
    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehituste arv (september)
    15.30 USA väljastatud ehituslubade arv (september)
    16.00 FEDi Dudley ja Powell esinevad kõnega
    18.00 FEDi Janet Yellen juhatab sisse tseremoonia

  • JPMorgani kohaselt on lühikeste positsoonide omanikud jäänud hoolimata oktoobri rallist truuks oma tehingutele ning pole aidanud katmisega turu ülespoole liikumisele kaasa, mis tähendab et positsioonide katmisest tingitud potentsiaalne ostusurve on jätkuvalt võimalik.

    • Levels of bearish bets haven’t come down much since Aug.
    • Any tailwind from short covering hasn’t really been occurring and hasn’t been driving Oct. rally: JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said in Oct. 16 report
    • S&P 500 up >7% since bottoming Aug. 25
    • Short sellers would have to buy back ~$90b of shares to bring short interest back to levels before Aug
  • Soome töötuse määr kasvas oodatud 0,7pp asemel 0,1pp 8,4%ni, kuid eelnevate aastate sama perioodiga võrreldes jääb tase kõrgemaks
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    TACO +13.6%, TTS +10.7%, SONC +5.7%, IHG +5.5%, GIG +4.3%, HSTM +3.7%, FLEX +3.1%, CE +1.6%, VZ +1.6%, SAP +1.5%, VLRS +0.8%, TRV +0.6%

    M&A news: TMH +21.9% (AmSurg (AMSG) confirms proposal to acquire TeamHealth for $71.47/share, or ~$7.8 bln), SNDK +8.7% (Bloomberg reporting co is in discussion to be acquired by Western Digital (WDC)), YUM +6% (to separate into two publicly traded companies; China Division to become independent company focused on growth in Mainland China)

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AU +3.1%, IAG +2.1%, GOLD +2%, ABX +1.6%, GDX +1.4%, GG +1.3%, SLW +1.1%

    Other news: ERII +135% (signed 15-year license with Schlumberger (SLB) to provide exclusive rights to its VorTeq hydraulic fracturing technology; deal includes $125 mln in upfront payments paid in stages), ONE +42.5% (sold its Campus Labs data analytics business to Leeds Equity Partners, for $91 mln in cash), CRBP +34.1% (confirms the FDA has granted a Fast Track development program and Orphan Drug Designation for Resunab, to treat cystic fibrosis), RXII +10.8% (reports positive results with its RNAi platform, showing it demonstrated robust and potent reduction of the levels of lncRNAs in a target specific manner), KITE +3.5% (enters into an exclusive, worldwide license with the National Institutes of Health, related to T Cell Receptor-based product candidates), ATRA +1.9% (confirms Orphan Drug Designation from the FDA, for STM 434 to treat ovarian cancer), SKX +1.7% (still checking), MPAA +1.6% (to replace OMG in the S&P SmallCap 600)

    Analyst comments: RCPI +8.4% (initiated with a Buy at Maxim Group; tgt $4), WTW +6.1% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays), TSEM +5.1% (initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton), RESN +3.1% (initiated with a Buy at Drexel Hamilton), BLUE +2.3% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; $162 tgt), GOLD +2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), CPE +1.7% (initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity), ADRO +0.7% (initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer), PFE +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    RMBS -16.5%, HOG -8.6%, HXL -8.3%, VAR -5.7%, IBM -4.4%, IEX -2.2%, WIBC -1.4%, WWW -1.2%, ETN -1.1%, SIX -0.8%, ELS -0.6%, LMT -0.5%

    M&A news: WDC -1.9% (Bloomberg reporting co is in discussion to acquire SNDK)

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -1.2%, BP -1%, RDS.A -0.8%

    Other news: NEOS -13.7% (received notification that the FDA has identified deficiencies that preclude discussion of labeling & postmarketing requirements/commitments for Cotempla XR-ODT), ZGNX -7.4% (co received a request from the FDA for additional information related to the proposed Phase 3 program for ZX008 prior to the FDA declaring the Investigational New Drug Application effective), MSB -4.9% (reported that due to a delay in the reporting of Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) regarding shipments of iron ore products, no distribution will be paid in November 2015), SGY -1.4% (filed mixed securities shelf offering), SNY -1.1% (may be in symp with AZN dg), AMD -1% (in symp with RMBS), ESI -0.9% (issues statement has received a letter from the U.S. Department of Education identifying certain past procedural deficiencies and requiring certain additional reporting, procedures and remedial actions)

    Analyst comments: ENPH -7.2% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), AZN -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), VRX -2.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at CIBC), CALM -1.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at a boutique firm), TS -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), DO -0.8% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup), PH -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)


    Briefing.com
  • USA väljastatud ehituslubade muutus osutus oodatust nõrgemaks, kuid alustatud elamuehitused ületasid konsensuse prognoosi

    US Building Permits Sep: 1103K (est 1165K; rev prev 1161K from 1170K)
    Building Permits (MoM) Sep: -5.00% (est -0.40%; rev prev 2.70% from 3,5%)

    US Housing Starts Sep: 1206K (est 1147K; rev prev 1132K from 1126K)
    Housing Starts (MoM) Sep: 6.50% (est 1.90%; rev prev -1.70% from -3,0%)

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