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Börsipäev 22. oktoober

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tervel USA aktsiaturul oli tunda kerget närvilisust pärast seda, kui üks analüüsimaja võttis väga negatiivsete kommentaaridega sihikule ravimifirma Valeant Pharmaceuticalsi ning põhjustas investorite seas hetkeks -40%lise paanikamüügi. Küllap pani see paljusid mõtlema, kui palju ülemäärast õhku on lõtv rahapoliitika aidanud puhuda ka teistesse spekulatiivsema iseloomuga ettevõtetesse. S&P 500 lõpetas -0,6% kaotusega ning Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 ilma muutuseta.

    Majandusuudiste osas oli eilne päev vaikne ning täna on aktsiaturud Aasias ka pigem reageerimas Wall Streeti liikumistele. Hiinas avaldatud börsiettevõtete ärikliima indikaator paranes oktoobris 8,4% 55,6 punkti peale, tehes sellega sisuliselt tasa eelmise kuu languse. Küsitluse kohaselt aitasid sentimenti parandada madalamad laenukulud ja finantsvahendite lihtsustunud kättesaadavus.



    Tänase börsipäeva keskmes on Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu istung, mille raames peaksid intressimäärad jääma analüütikute sõnul samale tasemele. Ehkki debatt võlakirjade ostuprogrammi suurendamise teemal on viimasel ajal elavamaks muutunud, usutakse et Mario Draghi piirdub täna vaid lubadusega astuda vajadusel täiendavaid samme. Tõenäolisemaks peetakse seda detsembri istungil, mil EKP avalikustab oma värsked majandusprognoosid.

    Majandusuudistest köidavad suuremat tähelepanu Suurbritannia septembri jaemüük, USA möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused ning septembrikuu olemasolevate majade müük. Ettevõtetest raporteerivad lõppenud kvartali numbrid Daimler, Fortum, Ingenico, Kone, Michelin, Metso, Pernod Ricard, Roche, Wärtsilä, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, McDonald’s, Alphabet, Amazon ja Microsoft.

    09.45 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
    11.30 Suurbritannia jaemüük (september)
    14.45 Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsus
    15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
    15.30 Kanada jaemüük (august)
    15.30 Mario Draghi pressikonverents
    17.00 USA olemasolevate majade müük (september)
    17.00 USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks (september)
    17.00 Euroala tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
    18.00 USA Kansas City FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (oktoober)

  • Mõned majandustulemused Euroopas:

    Daimler 3Q Profit Beats Est.; Forecast Reiterated
    • Daimler 3Q Ebit EU3.66b, est. EU3.51b.
    • Sales EU37.3b, est. EU37.3b.
    • FCF Jan-Sept EU4.8b vs EU6.8b y/y
    • 3Q Mercedes-Benz cars ongoing Ebit EU2.16b vs EU1.61b; margin 10.4% vs 8.6% y/y
    • Truck Ebit EU805m vs EU618m, margin 8.3% vs 7.3%
    • Says reducing view of 2015 global vehicle mkt
    • Mkt will be in magnitude of the previous year; main reason is recent weakening of market growth in China, where only a slight increase in demand is now anticipated.
    • Still sees FY Ebit rising significantly for M-B Cars, Trucks, Vans, Financial
    • Still sees Buses FY Ebit falling slightly
    • Says diesel engine crucial part of climate goals

    Akzo Nobel CFO Says Chinese Construction Market Was Challenging
    • Akzo Nobel 3Q rev. EU3.76b, est. EU3.8b.
    • 3Q Ebitda EU590m, est. EU572.8m
    • 3Q operating income ex incidentals EU436m, est. EU422.4m
    • 3Q ROS 11.6% vs 9.1% y/y, ROI 12.5% vs 10.5% y/y
    • Plans dividend 35c; BDVD forecast 35c
    • Environment in China and Brazil is expected to be more challenging, CFO Maelys Castella says during a conference call with journalists.
    • Economic trends in North America were positive
    • Growth in U.K. and France is still at a low level
    • Demand from the oil and gas industry is still limited

    SSAB Posts 3Q Operating Loss, Misses Sales Ests.
    • SSAB 3Q oper. loss ex-items SEK191m vs est. profit of SEK21.6m.
    • 3Q sales SEK13.6b vs est. SEK14.5b
    • Says overall 4Q shipment volumes expected to be somewhat higher than 3Q
    • Aims to cut as many as 295 jobs in Finland
    • Negotiations at Ruukki Construction aims to cut costs by at least SEK200m, in addition to SSAB’s cost synergies of SEK1.4b announced earlier
    • Ongoing and new measures will result in savings of around SEK2b; full annual run rate from end-2016

    Wartsila 3Q Operating Profit Beats Est.; Keeps Outlook
    • Wartsila 3Q operating profit ex-items EU160m vs est. EU152m.
    • 3Q net sales EU1.22b vs est. EU1.26b
    • 3Q order intake declined 17% to EU1.09b vs year earlier
    • Keeps 2015 outlook; sees net sales growth of 5-10% and operational profitability in range of 12.0-12.5%

    Huhtamaki 3Q Ebit Ex-Items, Sales Beat Estimates
    • Huhtamaki 3Q Ebit excl. non-recurring items EU62.4m vs est. EU59.5m
    • 3Q net sales EU692m vs est. EU690m
    • Comparable net sales growth 6% in total; 7% in emerging mkts
    • Group’s trading conditions are expected to remain relatively stable during 2015; Capex exp. to be flat vs 2014; majority of investments expected to be directed to enhance growth in emerging mkts

    Orange Sees 2016 Ebitda Improving After 2015 ‘Low Point’
    • Co. sees 2016 restated Ebitda better than EU12.3B, which is the forecast for this year, Finance Chief Ramon Fernandez says in a call.
    • European rebound is sustainable, helped by push to sell high-end wireless and fixed packages
    • French market continues to improve
    • Jazztel integration faster than anticipated; sees EU200M synergies, more than budgeted
    • Co. to decide on Bharti talks in Africa by year-end
    • Orange 3Q sales EU10.28b vs est. EU10.2b.
    • 3Q restated Ebitda EU3.56b vs est. EU3.5b

    Krones Confirms FY Forecast; Says On Track to Reach 2015 Targets
    • Krones says on track to achieve 2015 targets; 9-month rev. up 4.9% to EU2.3b.
    • Says greatest improvement seen in North, Central America, Middle East/Africa and Central Europe sales regions
    • New orders up 5.2% to EU2.3b Jan.-Sept.
    • 9-month pretax profit up 14% to EU156.1m; pretax profit margin rose to 6.9% from 6.3%
    • Order backlog of EU1.1b at Sept. 30 vs EU1b yr earlier
    • Still sees consolidated rev. up 4% in 2015; is confident will reach pretax profit margin of 7% for 2015; aims to increase 3rd strategy target, ROCE, to 17% this year

    Betsson 3Q Rev., Net Beats Ests.; Mobile Rev. Up 85%
    • Betsson 3Q rev. SEK972.9m, est. SEK961.5m.
    • 3Q oper. income SEK260.2m, est. SEK261.7m
    • 3Q net SEK247m, est. SEK239.2m
    • Sportsbook gross turnover up 36%
    • Mobile rev. up 85%
    • Due to lower Sportsbook margins, 4Q started with rev. just under the daily average for 3Q
    • Expects combined major markets will grow by 7%-8% in 2015

    Pernod 1Q Organic Sales Beat, Sees FY Profit Up 1%-3%
    • Pernod 1Q organic sales up 3%, est. up 1.1%.
    • 1Q sales EU2.22b, est. EU2.17b
    • Sees FY profit from recurring operations organic growth up 1% to 3%, est. up 2.8%
    • Sees “positive but volatile” FX impact in FY16
    • 1Q organic sales growth by region:
    • Europe up 3%, est. up 0.8%
    • Americas up 6%, est. up 1.5%
    • Asia/Rest of World up 1%, est. up 2%
    • Had “difficult environment” in China

    Norwegian Air 3Q Net Income Misses Estimates
    • 3Q net income NOK833m vs Est. NOK897m
    • 3Q revenue NOK7.3b vs est. NOK7.3b.
    • 3Q load factor 91% vs 85% yr earlier
    • Sees 2015 ASK of 5% incl. long haul, targets 2015 CASK of NOK0.40 incl. impact of strike
    • Sees 2016 ASK of 18% incl. long haul, targets 2016 CASK NOK0.39

    Dassault Systemes 3Q EPS Beats, Adjusts 2015 Outlook for FX, Tax
    • 3Q non-IFRS EPS up 29% to EU0.58; ests. EU0.52 (10 analysts)
    • Saw 3Q non-IFRS EPS of ~EU0.50
    • 3Q IFRS EPS up 46% to EU0.41 (constant FX)
    • Says 2015 outlook confirmed and upgraded for 3Q currency evolution and tax reserve reversal

    Tieto 3Q Ebit Ex-Items Profit Misses Est.; Keeps Outlook
    •Tieto 3Q operating profit excl. one-off items EU38.6m vs est. EU40.5m.
    • 3Q net sales EU335m vs est. EU332m
    • 3Q order intake (Total Contract Value) EU490m vs EU395m y/y
    • Keeps guidance, sees 2015 Ebit ex-items increasing vs 2014

    Safran 3Q Adj. Rev. EU 4.14b Beats Est.; Forecast Reiterated
    • Safran 3Q adj. rev. EU 4.14b, est. EU4.04b.
    • Co. confirms full-yr outlook
    • Sees adj. recurring op income growing in “mid-teens” percentage
    • Sees adj. rev. increasing in high single digits
    • Sees FCF 35%-45% of adj. recurring op income

    Logitech 2Q Adj. EPS, Rev. Beat Ests.; Reaffirms FY16 Outlook 04:05
    • Logitech 2Q adj. EPS 22c, est. 19c.
    • 2Q sales $540m vs est. $518m
    • 2Q adj. op. income $26m vs est. $32.6m
    • Keeps FY 2016 guidance; sees adj. op. income $150m, retail sales growth of 7% in constant currency
  • Maailma suurim vähiravimite tootja, Roche, käive kasvas 2015. aasta esimese üheksa kuu jooksul +6% konstantsete valuutakursside juures (+2% arvestades valuutakursside muutust), ulatudes 35,5 mld frangini. Ettevõtte kolmanda kvartali käive kasvas +1% Y/Y konstantsete valuutakursside juures ehk 11,9 mld frangini, ületades konsensuse 11,8 mld frangi suurust ootust. Nii ravimite üksuse (moodustab 78% ettevõtte käibest) kui ka diagnostikaüksuse (moodustab 22% ettevõtte käibest) käive kasvas üheksa kuu jooksul 6% (konstantsete valuutakursside juures). Sealjuures vedasid ravimite üksuse käibe kasvu vähi- ning immuunsüsteemi ravimid. Regioonidest oli üheksa kuu jooksul kiireima kasvuga Jaapan (+8% cc). Lisaks tõstis Roche ka majandusaasta käibeprognoosi, oodates umbes 5% kasvu varasema kuni 5% kasvu asemel (konstantsete valuutakursside juures).

    Roche’i aktsia kaupleb 18,1-korda tagasivaatavat kasumit, 9,2-korda P/B (FY2015) ning 12,1-korda 2015. aasta oodatavat EV/EBITDAd. Viimase 12-kuu jooksul on ettevõtte aktsia odavnenud -6,1%


  • Danskelt kokkuvõte, millised padrunid on täna ECB salves. Maja ootab, et kui püssi ei paugutata, siis EURUSD 12M perspektiivis 1,2.

  • Suurbritannia jaemüük osutus oodatust suuremaks, kasvades MoM autosid ja kütust arvestamata 1,7% (oodati 0,4%), mida mõnevõrra pehmendab teadmine,et augusti muutus revideeriti 0,1% pealt -0,7% peale. Aastatagusega võrreldes kiirenes kasvutempo 3,2% pealt 5,9%le (oodati 4,7%).
  • Deutsche Bank on valmis saanud oma ajakirja Konzept värske numbri. Link
  • Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressimäärad samale tasemele, sh deposiidi intressimäära -0,2% peale.
  • McDonald's on oma mojo jälle üles leidnud

    McDonald's prelim Q3 $1.40 vs $1.28 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $6.62 bln vs $6.40 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Global comparable sales increase of 4.0% vs. ests near +2%, reflecting positive comparable sales in all segments.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    SQNS +23%, OCLR +21.7%, PFPT +16.4%, ELY +9.1%, ASPS +8.6%, TXN +7.7%, EBAY +6.7%, CTXS +6.6%, MCD +6.5%, ORAN +5.1%, LVS +4.6%, LOGI +4.6%, DNKN +4.5%, TSCO +4.3%, WFT +4.1%, XRS +4.1%, TBI +3.8%, DOW +3.7%, STBZ +3.6%, EEFT +3.2%, URI +3.1%, ADPT +2.8%, CYTX +2.8%, BPFH +2.7%, TRST +2.5%, DPS +2.4%, LUV +2.3%, PRLB +1.6%, LAZ +1.6%, CBU +1.5%, DGX +1.5%, SN +1.4%, UNP +1.4%, LLY +1.3%, GGG +1.2%, MLNX +1.1%, USG +1.1%, NWE +1%, WCC +1%, RCI +1%

    M&A news: CIT +6.6% (will explore strategic alternatives for its $10 billion Commercial Air business, and sell its CIT Canada and CIT China businesses; announces that Chief Executive Officer John Thain will retire effective March 31, 2016; Ellen Alemany to become CEO upon Thain's retirement), BUD +1.4% (cont spec surrounding M&A with SABMiller)

    Select semi names showing strength: LLTC +2.6%, STM +1.5%, ARMH +1.1%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AU +3.5%, RIO +2.6%, BHP +2.1%, GFI +1.1%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +2.7%, BP +2.5%, WLL +2.1%, RIG +1.5%

    Other news: ZFGN +11.9% (reported a clinical update for beloranib, electing to proceed with efficacy and safety data analysis and close the randomized portion of its Phase 3 ZAF-311 clinical trial), CANF +11.9% (reports new findings for its CF602 drug candidate showing a defined mechanism of action in erectile dysfunction similar to sildenafil (Viagra)), VBLT +9.7% (reports positive results from its multi-cohort Phase 2 trial of VB-111; study met its primary trial endpoint of 6-month Progression Free Survival of at least 25% of patients ), SUNE +6.3% (modestly rebounding following yday's decline), EFII +5.8% (reported a favorable outcome in its patent lawsuit with Componex; co also reported earnings), KORS +3.3% (reports that Einhorn's Greenlight Capital has taken a position in KORS), FEYE +3% (modestly rebounding following yday's decline), STX +1.7% (announces Board approval for a 17% increase in the company's targeted regular cash dividend; to increase from $2.16 to $2.52 per share annually; appoints David H. Morton Jr. Executive VP and CFO ), MSM +1.4% (increased quarterly dividend 7.5% to $0.43/share from $0.40/share), TSLA +1.4% (CEO Musk reponds to Consumer Reports news on Twitter), CPLP +1.2% (increased its cash distribution to $0.2385/unit, up from $0.2365/unit Q/Q), NKE +0.8% (in symp with UA)

    Analyst comments: SNH +0.7% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
    : CYH -20.5%, EVHC -15%, CNMD -12.8%, FTK -10.2%, MKSI -9.5%, RCKY -8.3%, KMI -6.1%, DLB -5.9%, MJN -4.8%, CLB -4.4%, APOL -4.2%, AXP -4.1%, NOW -4.1%, PH -4.1%, RHI -3.8%, CAT -2.2%, BTG -1.6%, PDS -1.3%, AMP -1%, KNX -0.8%, EFX -0.8%

    Other news: RLYP -12.4% (FDA approves Veltassa (patiromer for oral suspension) to treat hyperkalemia; Veltassa has a boxed warning), THC -10.9% (following CYH guidance), VRX -8.1% (following notable weakness yesterday; additionally, Pershing Square Capital Management confirmed it purchased in excess of 2 million additional shares on Oct 21), HCA -6% (following CYH guidance), UHS -5.9% (following CYH guidance), LPNT -5.2% (following CYH guidance), IPXL -4% (announced FDA approval for its generic version of Guanfacine extended-release tablets), TEX -1.8% (trading in symp with CAT), BTG -1.6% (reported Q3 gold production rose 38% to 124,371 ounces), LINE -1.5% (reports a borrowing base redetermination, with a reduction to $3.6 bln in max capacity), KMPH -1.2% ( completes its human abuse liability program of KP201, reports top-line results from the KP201.A02 intranasal human abuse liability clinical trial), HZNP -1.2% (provided update on its relationship with specialty pharmacies, says does not own or have an ownership stake in any pharmacy and does not possess an option to purchase any pharmacy), DE -0.8% (trading in symp with CAT)

    Analyst comments: PSO -6.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan), SBH -4.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), CS -3.4% (downgraded to Sell at Bankhaus Lampe)

    Briefing.com
  • Detsembris on QE suurendamine laual

    DRAGHI SAYS DEGREE OF POLICY ACCOMMODATIONS MUST BE REEXAMINED

  • Esmakordsete töötu abiraha taotluste arv püsib USAs nelja aastakümne madalaimal tasemel (259 tuhat vs prognoositud 265 tuhat ning 256 tuhat eelneval nädalal)
  • Veelgi negatiivsem deposiidi määr pole enam välistatud

    DRAGHI: DEPOSIT RATE CUT WAS DISCUSSED
  • USA olemasolevate majade müük oodatust parem, tagasi tsükli tipus

    US Existing Home Sales Sep: 5.55M (est 5.39M; rev prev 5.30M)
    US Existing Home Sales (MoM) Sep: 4.70% (est 1.50%; rev prev -5.00%)


  • 10st juhtivast indikaatorist kokku pandud indeksi YoY muutus viitab USA majanduse aeglustumisele. Languse oht tekib nullpiirist allapoole liikudes, mis finantskriisi eel töötas suurepärase signaalina.

  • Alphabet prelim Q3 $7.35 vs $7.21 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $18.7 bln vs $18.42 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    GOOG oodatust paremad tulemused on viinud aktsia järelkauplemisel 7,4% plussi, kauplemas @700
  • Amazon Q2 operating income $406 mln vs. ~$20 estimates and ($480)-70 mln guidance, EPS $0.17 vs ($0.13) Capital IQ Consensus; revs $25.4 bln vs $24.9 bln Capital IQ Consensus

    AMZN-lt ilus kvartal, aktsia +9,3%, @617
  • Microsoft prelim Q1 $0.67 vs $0.59 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $21.66 bln vs $21.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

    MSFT ületab samuti ootusi ja aktsia +4%, @50,05

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