Börsipäev 9. november
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Eelmise nädala enimoodatud sündmus, USA oktoobrikuu tööjõuraport ei valmistanud turuosalistele pettumust. Väga suure varuga ületati analüütikute poolt seatud latt 181 000 peal, kui USA majandusse lisandus hoopiski 271 000 töökohta. Töötuse määr langes 0,1 protsendipunkti võrra ehk 5% peale ning palgad kasvasid aastatagusega võrreldes 2,5%, mis on kõrgeim kasvumäär alates 2009. aastast. Aktsiaturgudel aga erilist rallit ei järgnenud, kui S&P 500 sulgus sisuliselt muutumatul tasemel, olles kauplemissessiooni veetnud negatiivsel territooriumil. Positiivselt jäi silma finantssektor, mis lõpetas 2,5% plussis tulenevalt Fedi intressimäära tõstmise võimalikkuse kasvust. Teisest otsast võis leida madalas intressikeskkonnas atraktiivset dividenditootlust pakkuvad kommunaalettevõtted, mis sektorina langesid 3,6%. Turuosalised hindavad tõenäosuseks, et USA keskpank intressimäära detsembri kohtumisel tõstab 70% peale varasema 58% asemel.
Käesoleva nädalal tuleb avalikustamisele mitu suuremat makroraportit Hiina kohta, kui teisipäeval ja kolmapäeval avaldatakse riigi tarbijahinnaindeks, tööstustoodangu muutus ning investeeringute muutus. Neljapäeval kinnitatakse Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa oktoobrikuu tarbijahinnaindeksid ning reedel saame teada eurotsooni esialgse kolmanda kvartali SKP muutuse ja USA oktoobrikuu jaemüügi.
Tänane makrokalender:
09:00 Saksamaa väliskaubanduse bilanss (september)
19:00 FOMC liikme Eric Rosengreni kõne -
Hiina väliskaubanduse bilanss saavutas oktoobris rekordilise ülejäägi, ulatudes $61,6 miljardini. Eksport langes aastatagusega võrreldes dollarites 6,9% ning import kahanes 18,8%. Mõlemad näitajad osutusid analüütikute ootustest nõrgemateks. Ekspordi languseks oodati 3% ning impordi languseks 16%.
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Saksamaa eksport tõusis septembris võrreldes augustiga 2,6%, olles augustis kukkunud 5,2%. Kokku oli Euroopa suurima majanduse eksport 105,9 miljardit eurot, mis on läbi aegade suuruselt teine näitaja. Ekspordi kasv tulenes peamiselt tänu ekspordile teistele ELi liikmesriikidele (kasv 7,4%), kuid väljapoole ELi oli kasvuks 0,4%. Import kasvas septembris 3,6% ning väliskaubanduse ülejäägiks kujunes €22,9 mld ehk aasta esimese üheksa kuuga on ülejääk tõusnud €187 mld peale vs €156 mld aasta tagasi samal perioodil.
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Goldman Sachs loeb BRIC-s ajastu lõppenuks.
Bloomberg:
Fourteen years after former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the acronym that ushered in an unprecedented investment boom, the biggest emerging markets are now sputtering.
The downfall of the BRIC fund, which had lost 88 percent of its assets since a 2010 peak, also underscores how the strategy of bundling disparate countries into a single investment theme is losing its appeal among investors.
Link -
OECD langetab maailma majanduse käesoleva aasta kasvuprognoosi 3% pealt 2,9% peale. Varasemast veidi positiivsemates toonides nähakse Hiina SKP muutust.
- Cuts Eurozone growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.6% in 2015 and 1.8% from 1.9% in 2016
- Cuts World growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in 2015 and 3.3% from 3.6% in 2016
- Increases China's growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.7% in 2015 and reiterates 2016 forecast of 6.5%
- Reiterates US growth forecast of 2.4% in 2015 and cuts 2016 forecast to 1.6% from 1.9% -
Sander Pikkel
Goldman Sachs loeb BRIC-s ajastu lõppenuks.Bloomberg:
Fourteen years after former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the acronym that ushered in an unprecedented investment boom, the biggest emerging markets are now sputtering.
The downfall of the BRIC fund, which had lost 88 percent of its assets since a 2010 peak, also underscores how the strategy of bundling disparate countries into a single investment theme is losing its appeal among investors.
Link
Siinkohal tasub mainida, et see -88% on juhitavate varade vähenemine, fondiosaku hind ise on ehk ca -35% kukkunud 5 aastaga
vaatan hetkel siin ETFide pealt 5 aasta tootluseid
iShares MSCI BRIC - 35,64%
iShares MSCI India +5,13%
iShares MSCI China -8,27%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets - 23,92%
iShares MSCI Russia - 46,39%
iShares MSCI Brazil -68,6%
iShares MSCI South Korea -2,29%
iShares MSCI South Africa - 19,95%
Ehk siis Brasiilia ja Venemaa on BRIC ebaedu taga ja BRICS (Brazil + Russia + India + China + South ....) konkureerivad liikmekandidaadid Lõuna-Aafrika ja eriti Lõuna-Korea on arenevate turgude tootluse vedanud paremaks kui BRIC -
Goldman on kokku pannud joonise, mis vaatleb S&P 500 tasandil ettevõtete rahavoo kasutamist. Ajapikku on ettevõtted üha rohkem tagastamas raha investoritele, mistõttu on vähenenud kasvule suunatud investeeringute osakaal.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ACI +26.5%, PGN +12.5%, AVEO +12.2%, RXDX +8.5%, DF +7.8%, HZNP +6.1%, ICON +5.8%, SNI +4.2%, INO +4%, RLD +3.6%, NSAM +2.5%, CTCM +2.4%, ENDP +1.9%, EXXI +1%
M&A news: PCL +14% (Weyerhaeuser and Plum Creek (PCL) to merge; all-stock transaction followed by $2.5 bln post-closing share repurchase; WY to review strategic alternatives for its Cellulose Fibers business)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RGLD +1.4%, RIO +0.9%, SSRI +0.7%, AEM +0.7%, KGC +0.6%, GG +0.5%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: APA +12.9% (still checking), RIG +2.3% (still checking), SDRL +2.2% (still checking), OAS +2% (still checking), STO +1.8% (still checking), NBL +1% (still checking), RDS.A +0.8% (still checking)
Other news: AVXL +20.7% (presents positive safety and cognitive efficacy data for ANAVEX 2-73; study met the primary objective of safety), PCL +14% (Weyerhaeuser and Plum Creek (PCL) to merge; all-stock transaction followed by $2.5 bln post-closing share repurchase; WY to review strategic alternatives for its Cellulose Fibers business), TKAI +13.4% (presents new data highlighting the anti-tumor activity of galeterone in multiple preclinical tumor models), IMNP +9.6% (announces FDA acceptance of its IND application for Bertilimumab, to treat Bullous Pemphigoid; enables expanded recruitment for its clinical trials), RXDX +8.5% (reports interim data from RXDX-105 Phase 1 clinical trial; RXDX-105 was well tolerated to date), WTW +6.3% (cont strength), RDHL +4.5% (RedHill Biopharma and IntelGenx Corp announce that they have been granted marketing approval in Germany, for Rizaport 5mg and 10mg to treat migraines), CRIS +4% (presents preclinical data from oral small molecule PD-L1/VISTA and IRAK4 programs), MT +2.8% (Telegraph discusses that Europe wants China to stop dumping steel output), ERIC +2.2% (Cisco Systems and Ericsson form strategic partnership), COLL +1.8% (announces FDA approval for its NDA for Xtampza ER), GALE +1.7% (reports data from its GALE-301 and GALE-302 clinical programs)
Analyst comments: AEZS +24.6% (upgraded to Buy at Canaccord Genuity), PZZA +3.2% (upgraded to Overweight at KeyBanc)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNDI -12%, PLUG -8.3%, NVAX -6.8%, PCLN -5.9%, EVEP -4.8%, AOI -3%, ANTH -3%, BITA -2.8%, MNKD -2.4%, FXEN -0.9%
M&A news: WY -3.7% (Weyerhaeuser and Plum Creek (PCL) to merge; all-stock transaction followed by $2.5 bln post-closing share repurchase; WY to review strategic alternatives for its Cellulose Fibers business)
Select large pharma names showing weakness: SNY -2.1%, AZN -1.7%, SHPG -1.6%, NVS -1%, GSK -0.5%
Other news: XOMA -8.9% (cont weakness), NBG -5.3% (still checking), AGIO -5.1% (reports data from dose-escalation Phase 1 study of AG-120), ITUB -2.5% (still checking), CALA -2.4% (reports new Phase 1 solid tumor dose expansion data of CB-839), BHP -1.3% (updates on the incident at its Samarco mine, places FY16 production guidance under review)
Analyst comments: GLUU -4.3% (downgraded to Hold at The Benchmark Company), CENX -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), SNY -2.1% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), OVAS -1.9% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Leerink Partners), ADSK -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS ), SSYS -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), CTIC -0.8% (downgraded to Hold at WallachBeth), AA -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), QCOM -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura).
Briefing.com -
Henno Viires
Siinkohal tasub mainida, et see -88% on juhitavate varade vähenemine, fondiosaku hind ise on ehk ca -35% kukkunud 5 aastaga
Tänan täpsustamast
