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Börsipäev 18. november

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  • Sessioon Ühendriikides kujunes eile võrdlemisi heitlikuks pärast seda kui meediasse ilmusid pealkirjad Saksamaa ja Hollandi vahelise jalgpallimatši tühistamisest terroriohu tõttu. S&P 500 lõpetas -0,1% madalamal, olles eelnevalt kaubelnud pea 0,7% plusspoolel. Euroopas võttis Stoxx 600 indeks järgi Wall Streeti esmaspäevasele rallile, lõpetades 2,5% kõrgemal.

    Eile avaldatud majandusnäitajatest peegeldas Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeks pärast oktoobri tugevat kukkumist taastumist tagasi septembri taseme lähedale, mis oli ühtlasi esimene positiivne muutus alates aprillist. Ühendriikides püsis inflatsioon toitu ja energiat arvestamata ootuspäraselt 1,9% peal. Detailsem vaade aga avab kaks erinevat lugu majandusest, sest kui kaupade hinnad langesid peamiselt tugevama dollari ning madalamate importhindade tõttu YoY –0,7% siis teenuste hinnatõus kiirenes 2,4%ni, mida peamiselt veab elupinna rentimise kallinemine. Renti arvestamata kallinesid teenused oktoobris 1,6% vs 1,4% septembris, viidates võimaliku inflatsioonisurve tekkimisele tänu tingimuste paranemisele tööturul.

    USA tööstustoodang valmistas oktoobris pettumuse, vähenedes septembri baasil -0,2% loodetud 0,1% kasvu asemel ning kasvades mullusega võrreldes vaid 0,3%. Peamiseks põhjuseks oli äritegevuse aeglustumine kaevanduses ja kommunaalteenuste vallas, samal ajal aga kasvas töötleva tööstuse toodang MoM 0,4%, ületades konsensuse 0,2% prognoosi.

    Liikumised Aasia aktsiaturul olid öösel üsna vaoshoitud. Lõdvem rahapoliitika ning laenuturul tingimuste leevendamine on pakkumas Hiina kinnisvaraturule tuge, kui Reutersi arvutuste kohaselt kerkis uute majade keskmine hind 70s suuremas linnas oktoobris 0,1% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga, mis on esimene positiivne muutus alates 2014.a augustist. Negatiivsest küljest veavad hinnatõusu siiski vaid suuremad linnad, sest mullusega võrreldes kallinesid hinnad 27s linnas 70st, märkides väiksemat kontsentratsiooni võrreldes septembriga, mil hinnatõus registreeriti 39s linnas. Pekingis tõusis uute majade keskmine hind oktoobris 6,5%, Shanghais 10,9% ja Shenzenis 39,9%.



    Pöörates pilgud tänasele börsipäevale, siis esikohal saavad olema USA oktoobrikuu esimesed kinnisvaranäitajad ning FOMC viimase istungi protokoll, mis võib turul võimendada uuesti diskussiooni intressimäära tõstmise üle.

    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused (oktoober)
    15.30 USA väljastatud ehitusload (oktoober)
    17.30 USA toornafta varude raport (13. novembri seisuga)
    21.00 USA FEDi 27-28. oktoobri istungi protokoll

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    RADA -9.1%, SBLK -5.7%, SPLS -5.2%, CTXS -4%, (updates on its operations review, offers FY16 guidance, announces plan to spin off GoTo businesses, names new Chief Marketing Officer), SFUN -2.7%, SQM -2.1%, GILT -1.9%, MTSI -1.1%, AMCN -0.7%, GBDC -0.5%.

    Other news: KBIO -12% (cont volatility pre-mkt), NBG -8.2% (cont volatility pre-mkt), SYT -4.8% (may be related to Reuters story regarging Bayer stating its crop chem business is not for sale), CLGX -3.8% (still checking), OME -3.3% (Wynnefield filed an amended 13D disclosing letter sent as follow up to several earlier communications detailing concerns and doubts related to the credibility of the 'purported strategic review process'),, QCOM -2.6% (announces receipt of report from Korea Fair Trade Commission alleging it violates Korean competition law), IBN -2.3% (Sensex down overnight), INFY -1.4% (Sensex down overnight), WMGI -0.9% (announced a secondary offering of 4.5 mln shares by an affiliate of Warburg Pincus), .

    Analyst comments
    : DSX -4.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), GPRO -3.8% (target lowered to $15 from $20 at Piper Jaffray), SGEN -3.2% (initiated with a Sell at Goldman)

    Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    MCUR +10% (reports Q3 results and withdraws guidance given recently announced clinical trial results; commences a process to review all strategic alternatives ), DQ +6.1%, VIPS +4.2%, JACK +3.9%, LOW +2.1%, TGT +1.4%.

    M&A news: FCS +8.7% (to be acquired by ON Semiconductor (ON) for $20/share in cash, or ~$2.4 bln), NSC +6.6% (Canadian Pacific proposes to acquire Norfolk Southern), CP +5.1% (Canadian Pacific proposes to acquire Norfolk Southern), AHS +3.5% (signs an agreement to acquire B.E. Smith for $160 mln in cash; expected to be immediately accretive to Co's GAAP and adjusted EPS), PSEM +3.2% (Montage Technology Group increases cash offer for Pericom Semiconductor Corporation to $19.00/share), CAG +2.9% (announces plans to separate into two independent public companies), PMCS +2.1% (Microsemi (MSCC) has increased its offer to acquire PMC-Sierra; new offer valued at $12.05/ PMCS share), .

    Select Brazil related names showing strength: SID +15.2%, GGB +8.8%, EPR +2.6%, PBR +2.5%, BAK +2.2%, .

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: VALE +3.2%, MT +3.1%, NEM +2.4%, RIO +1.7%, BBL +1.3%, BHP +1%, FCX +0.7%, .

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +4.5%, RIG +2.1%, BP +1.7%, RDS.A +1.7%, TOT +1.6%, OAS +1.5% .

    Other news: AVXL +27.5% (announces that it is moving forward with the development program for ANAVEX 2-73 in a larger double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2/3 trial), MIFI +11.5% (announced that Wells Fargo Bank has increased the Company's five-year senior secured revolving credit facility to $48 million), UVE +8.7% (co issued a statement 'correct misleading allegations and misinformation presented by Lakewood Capital'), THLD +7.1% (enters into definitive co-promotion agreement for Evofosfamide w/ Merck KGaA (MKGAY)), DBVT +6.4% (presents preclinical Data on its Viaskin technology), DEPO +4.3% (acquired the rights to Cebranopadol from Grünenthal GmbH), RAX +4.1% (prices upsized offering of $500 mln of 6.500% senior notes due 2024), RDEN +3.6% (co's President of Global Fragrances, Joel B. Ronkin, resigned to accept a position as CEO of a privately-held personal care organization), COMM +2.1% (Maverick Capital's Lee Ainslie long recommendation), CSX +2% (on CP / NSC news), AXLL +1.7% (appointed Timothy Mann as CEO), STM +1.7% (semi peer), NVS +1% (Co's unit Sandoz receives FDA acceptance for proposed biosimilar pegfilgrastim), UNP +0.8% (on CP / NSC news).

    Analyst comments: BLUE +4.6% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), FARO +3.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity), KITE +3.5% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), TASR +3.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann), SBH +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), HALO +2.9% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup), GPRE +2.8% (resumed with a Outperform at Credit Suisse), AAPL +1.6% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), CGNX +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity), MIDD +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets), INCY +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman)

    Briefing.com
  • USA alustatud elamuehituste arv kahanes MoM oktoobris -11,0% vs oodatud -3,8% ning jõudis annualiseeritult 1,06 miljonile (1,191 mln septembris), väljastatud ehituslubade arv aga oli üsna ootuspärane, kerkides MoM 4,1% (prog 3,8%) annualiseeritult 1,15 miljonile
  • Uks on detsembris avatud aga otsus pole kivisse raiutud

    USD FOMC Minutes: Most Fed officials said liftoff conditions could be met by Dec.; couple concerned wording change too strong a Dec. signal.
    USD FOMC Minutes: FOMC members open to Dec. liftoff barring unanticipated shocks.

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