LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 18. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • FEDi otsuse eel ja vahetult pärast seda rallinud USA aktsiaturul võeti eile kasumit, seedides põhjalikumalt seda, millist mõju võiks intressimäära nullist lahti nööpimine pikemas perspektiivis avaldada. S&P 500 sulgus -1,5%ga päeva põhjades, Euroopas andis Stoxx 600 ära suure osa päevasisesest võidust, lõpetades siiski 1,2% plussis. Dollar jätkas valuutakorvi suhtes tugevnemist 0,5% võrra, survestades sellega omakorda naftat, mis odavnes -1,6% 34,95 dollarile (WTI).

    Jaapanis otsustas keskpank täna hommikul jätkata rahabaasi suurendamist aastas 80 triljoni jeeni võrra (ca 600 mld EUR), viies detailides sisse väikeseid muudatusi. Esiteks pikendatakse portfellis hoitavate valitsuse võlakirjade keskmist pikkust 7-10a pealt 7-12 aastale, et pikemas otsas intressimäära veelgi allapoole tuua ning kui varasemalt osteti Nikkei 400 indeksit järgivaid börsil kaubeldavaid fonde mahus 3 triljoni jeeni ulatuses aastas, siis alates aprillist suurendatakse seda mahtu 300 miljardi jeeni võrra. Mõju peaks olema minimaalne, sest paralleelselt müüakse samas mahus ükskikaktsiaid, mida keskpank on alates 2002.a finantsstabiilsuse tagamiseks soetanud. Esimese hooga 2,6% hüpanud Nikkei indeks sulgus lõpuks -1,9% miinuses.

    Hinnatrend Hiina kinnisvaraturul on teinud viimase poole aasta jooksul kiire pöörde ning kui alles juunis langes uute majade hind 70s suuremas linnas mullusega võrreldes keskmiselt -4,9%, siis novembris hinnad juba kasvasid 0,9%. Peamisteks mõjuteguriteks võib olla fookuse liikumine aktsiaturult tagasi kinnisvaraturule ning ka leevenenud regulatsioon. Hinnad tõusid novembris 70st linnast 33s, mis oli parem kui oktoobris registreeritud 27s linnas ning kasvu veavad suurlinnad eesotsas Shenzheniga, kus uue maja keskmine hind hüppas aastaga 43,9% (oktoobris 39,9%), Shanghaiga, kus keskmine hinnatõus oli 13,1% (oktoobris 10,9%) ning Pekingiga (7,7% vs 6,5% üks kuu varem).



    Tänane börsipäev toob majandusuudiseid peamiselt Ühendriikidest, kus selgub teenindussektori detsembrikuu aktiivsusindeks ning kolmas regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (Kansas City).

    10.00 Soome rahandusministeerium esitab kvartaalse ülevaate
    11.00 Eurotsooni jooksevkonto (oktoober)
    15.30 Kanada inflatsioon (november)
    16.45 USA Markiti koostatud teenindussektori PMI (detsember)
    18.00 USA Kansas City FEDi töötleva tööstuse PMI (detsember)
    20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete nafta puurtornide arv (18. detsember)
    20.00 FEDi Lacker esitab oma majandusväljavaate tulevaks aastaks

  • Kuroda sõnul esinevad teatavad märgid inflatsiooniootuste langusest ning nafta odavnemise tõttu võib 2% inflatsiooni saavutamine edasi lükkuda

    KURODA: TODAY'S DECISION NOT INTENDED TO ALTER NATURE OF QQE
    KURODA: MID, LONG-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS AREN'T DOWN SO MUCH
    KURODA: SOME INDICATORS SHOW WEAKNESS IN PRICE EXPECTATIONS
    KURODA: WATCHING RESULTS OF WINTER BONUSES, WAGE TALKS CLOSELY
    KURODA: BOJ WANTS TO LOWER ENTIRE YIELD CURVE
    KURODA: DON'T THINK THERE ARE LIMITS FOR QQE
    KURODA: TIMING OF REACHING 2% COULD CHANGE WITH OIL PRICES
    KURODA: ACTIONS TODAY NOT AIMED AT ADDRESSING DOWNSIDE RISKS
    KURODA: TODAY'S DECISION MAKES IT EASIER TO CONTINUE QQE
    KURODA: TODAY’S DECISION WASN’T ADDITIONAL EASING
    KURODA: DON'T THINK COMMODITY PRICE FALL MAKES 2% IMPOSSIBLE
    KURODA: OVERALL, TANKAN SURVEY SHOWS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE GOOD
    KURODA: SOME GAPS IN ENDING OF DEFLATIONARY MINDSET
    KURODA: WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH EFFECTS OF FED RATE HIKE
    KURODA: FED RATE HIKE REFLECTS STRONG U.S. ECONOMY
    KURODA: MADE CHANGES TO ALLOW BOJ TO ADJUST POLICY IF NEEDED
    KURODA: WILL CHECK RISKS, ADJUST POLICY AS NECESSARY
    KURODA: INFLATION TREND IS IMPROVING
    KURODA: EXPECTS CPI TO MEET 2% AROUND 2ND HALF OF FY2016
    KURODA: BUSINESS SENTIMENT REMAINS AT FAVOURABLE LEVEL
    KURODA: EXPORTS ARE RECOVERING, WITH SOME WEAKNESS REMAINING
    KURODA: JAPAN ECONOMY IS RECOVERING GRADUALLY
    KURODA: VIRTUOUS ECONOMIC CYCLE IS WORKING IN JAPAN
  • USA naftatoodang oli läinud nädalal 9,18 miljonit barrelit päevas, mis nelja nädala libiseva keskmise järgi näitab vaatamata aktiivsete puurtornide arvu drastilisest vähenemisest mullusega võrreldes veel marginaalset kasvu.

  • Gapping up:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    HK +16% (light volume), RHT +6.4%, BBRY +5.8%, DRI +2.9%, AIR +2.7% (light volume), CNC +2.6% (ticking higher), LEN +1.7%, DLTH +0.8%.

    M&A news: QIHU +2.8% (enters into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by a consortium of investors in an all-cash transaction valued at ~$9.3 bln, or $77.00/share), .

    Metals/mining stocks trading higher: HMY +11.8%, SBGL +5.9%, AU +2.3%, ABX +2.3%, BHP +2% (also higher despite Moody's placing ratings of BHP Billiton on review for downgrade), MT +1.9% (also higher despite downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), RIO +1.7%, GDX +1.2%, SLV +0.9%, GLD +0.7%
    Other news: GPT +16.2% (Gramercy Property Trust and Chambers Street Properties close merger, complete private placement of $150 mln in senior unsecured notes, enter into new credit facility; initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson), GALE +4.1% (light volume, Galena Biopharma agress to sell Zuplenz to Midatech Pharma (MTP) for an upfront payment of $3.75 mln), BTU +6.8% (issues update, discloses potential plan to raise $150 mln in debt financing as well as a new $250 mln credit facility), JRJC +4.6% (announced that it has received ~$24.0 million from its investment in the Langfang real estate project, including fully recovered principal of ~$21.7 million.), TK +3.2% (following ~60% decline yesterday), NSPH +3.1% (prices $10 mln public offering of common stock at $0.47/share), CDXS +2.9% (ticking higher, announces multi-year contract extension to supply MSD with enzyme used in manufacture of Sitagliptin), RMBS +2.7% (to collaborate with Microsoft researchers in the exploration of future memory requirements for quantum computing), GMLP +2.5% (following ~30%+ decline yesterday), PTLA +1% (ticking higher, announces completion of BLA submission to FDA for Andexanet Alfa).

    Analyst comments: ROSG +4.8% (initiated with a Spec. Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald -- Thyroid may reveal ROSG to be your CUP of Tea), PLUG +3.2% (initiated with a Outperform at FBR Capital), SUNE +2.4% (initiated with a Outperform at FBR Capital; tgt $10.50), DERM +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), FIT +1.4% (initiated with a Buy at Mizuho), DD +0.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), CRM +0.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush), EXAS +0.7% (initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research)

    Gapping down:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    DYSL -27% (thinly traded), KMX -8.8%, KNX -7.4% ( lowers Q4 EPS guidance below consensus, also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), AKS -2% (provides Q4 EPS guidance including charges; sees Q4 shipments of 1.6 mln tons, down 14% QoQ)

    M&A related: WFC -0.3% (Wells Fargo to sell its crop insurance business to Zurich Insurance).

    Select telecom names showing early weakness: TSU -5.3%, VIV -3.6%, TEF -2.9%, TMUS -1.3%.

    Other news: OSIR -12.8% (independent registered public accounting firm BDO USA resigns), QURE -8.6% (appoints Dan Soland as new CEO), ICPT -6.6% (FDA extends PDUFA date for Obeticholic acid for the treatment of PBC to May 29, 2016), VTAE -6.3% (announces top-line clinical efficacy results from the remaining monotherapy arm of Boehringer Ingelheim's Phase 2 trial of BI187004 in type 2 diabetes), VNR -5.7% (lowers monthly distribution to $0.03/unit from $0.1175/unit), ARIA -3.6% (confirms the appointment of Paris Panayiotopoulos as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective Jan. 1 2016), SWFT -3.3% (following KNX guidance), SCTY -2.9% (Jim Chanos reiterating cautious stance on SCTY- CNBC), YNDX -2.4% (Russia names weaker after Ukraine defaulted on $3 bln bond to Russia), VRX -2.1% (still checking), LVS -2% (CEO Adelson says the Macau market is beginning to bottom out - Reuters ), ALIM -2% (discloses it promoted Richard Eiswirth to the position of President and Chief Financial Officer), NE -1.8% (still checking), UN -1.6% (still checking), RIG -1.5% (Statoil ASA decides to cancel the contract with Transocean for the drillship Discoverer Americas; announced that the SIX Swiss Exchange approved its application to delist its shares), FDX -1.4% (pulling back following yesterday's earnings related strength), AN -1.3% (KMX sympathy), MS -1.2% (WSJ reports that Morgan Stanley is planning to trim up to 5% of its stock-trading employees early next year), IRMD -1.1% (announces a proposed secondary offering of common stock, by CEO Roger Susi; size not disclosed), AZN -1.1% (updates on preliminary findings from the ATLANTIC trial of durvalumab as 3rd-line or later stage therapy in patients with NSCLC), INTC -0.9% (still checking), JBHT -0.8% (following KNX guidance), YHOO -0.7% (NYPost reports that some of Yahoo's (YHOO) activist shareholders are mulling a proxy battle), MRK -0.4% (Provides Update on European Medicines Agency Marketing Authorization Application for Investigational Chronic Hepatitis C Therapy Elbasvir/Grazoprevir; anticipates a European Commission decision in mid-2016), KR -0.3% (Kroger completes tender offer for shares of Roundy's; initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo).

    Analyst comments: FOSL -7.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), GLOP -2.3% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan), AIXG -1.2% (downgraded to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley), BA -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), SGYP -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup), TXN -0.3% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • Markiti järgi on ka teenindussektor kaotamas hoogu, energia ja töötleva tööstuse mõju polegi päris tühine?

    USD Markit US Services PMI (DEC P): 53.7 actual vs 55.9 estimate, 56.1 prior.

    The survey data are consistent with gross domestic product rising at an annualised rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter. That’s down only slightly from the 2.1% pace observed in the third quarter,
    but the survey shows a more severe slowing towards the end of the fourth quarter, with an annualised GDP growth rate of just 1.4% indicated for December alone. The Fed projections point to a further four quarter point hikes in 2016, but with data as weak as these, we’re likely to see a far less aggressive rate hike progression.


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