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Börsipäev 31. detsember

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  • Mida lähemale aasta lõpp jõuab, seda väiksemaks kipuvad käibed muutuma ning see jätab ukse avatuks volatiilsusele. Päev kujunes Ühendriikides eile väga vaikseks, kuid viimase pooltunni müügisurve viis S&P 500 lõpuks -0,7% madalamale. Euroopas jäid aktsiad miinuspoolele teist korda sellel nädalal, kui Stoxx 600 indeks langes -0,5%.

    Energiasektor koges S&P 500 indeksis suurimat survet, tulenedes WTI -3,4% odavnemisest 36,6 dollarile. Kui läinud nädalal rõõmustati USA toornafta varude languse üle, siis eilne raport näitas taas kasvu 2,629 miljoni barreli võrra (oodati langust -1,766 mln barreli võrra). Ühest küljest tingis selle impordi suurenemine, teisalt kasvas 25. detsembril lõppenud nädalal ka USA enda tootmine (23 tuhande barreli võrra 9,2 miljoni barrelini päevas), trotsides hinnalangust ning naftapuurtornide vähenemist.

    Aktsiaturu negatiivsele sentimendile aitas kaasa USA majade pooleliolevate müügitehingute vähenemine novembris -0,9% võrreldes oktoobriga, osutudes kesisemaks kui analüütikute prognoositud +0,7%. Kui läinud nädalal selgus, et olemasolevate majade müük kukkus novembris MoM -10,5%, loeti põhjuseks pigem regulatiivseid muudatusi, mis pikendasid tehingute vormistamist keskmiselt viie päeva võrra. Juhtiva indikaatorina näitab aga pooleliolevate müügitehingute indeks, et olemasolevate majade müük on jätkamas 1-2 kuu lõikes nõrgenemist sõltumata regulatiivsetest muudatustest.



    Mitmel pool Euroopas on väärtpaberiturud täna suletud, Ühendriikides aga kaubeldakse tavapäraselt. Kuigi liikumised aasta viimasel tööpäeval võivad olla tingitud rohketest põhjustest (positsioonide korrigeerimised, kahjumite realiseerimine maksude vähendamise eesmärgil jne), siis mõju võib avaldada ka majandusstatistika. Eeskätt võib huvi pakkuda Chicago töötleva tööstuse küsitlus, mille põhjal tehakse viimaseid korrektuure üleriigilise ISM indeksi prognoosides.

    15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
    16.45 USA Chicago töötleva tööstuse PMI (detsember)
    20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete nafta puurtornide arv
  • Ka Venemaa teenindussektor lõpetas aasta negatiivsema noodiga, ent 2016.a osas jäädakse optimistlikuks.

    Russia Dec Services PMI 47.8 Vs. 49.8 In November, Consensus 48.2

    “The latest decline in business activity was driven by a further contraction in new business. Panel members commented on how payment struggles experienced by their customers had hampered incoming new work during the month. Elsewhere, job cuts continued in December, with both manufacturers and service providers lowering their
    staffing numbers.
    “However, the weak performance by the service sector has not dampened firms optimism towards future business activity, and although the level of positive sentiment is only slight, panellists still anticipate an increase in output over 2016.”

  • Iraan suudab naftat toota väidetavalt 1 dollari eest barreli kohta: Iran Be Able to Produce Oil at $1
  • Milline võiks olla Buffetti, Icahni ja teiste suurinvestorite mõtlemine...Danny DeVito Explaining Value Investing
  • Gapping up:
    In reaction to guidance:
    PERI +1.6% (raises Q4 guidance to account for the closing of its Undertone acquisition), .

    M&A related: LBTYA +3.9% / VOD +1.8% (Vodafone PLC said to be working on a possible GBP 140 bln merger with Liberty Global, according to the DailyMail), EMCF +2.4% (thinly traded, acquires United-American for ~$14.1 mln; expected to be immediately accretive to co's earnings for the remainder of 2016 following the merger), MEG +2.3% (Nexstar Broadcasting (NXST) to finalize terms of a proposal to acquire MEG as soon as today, according to Bloomberg).

    A few oil/gas related names are trading higher (natural gas futures +7% in morning trade): UNG +3.6% SWN +2.2%), BP +0.6% (Reuters reports that BP (BP) has shut production and ordered an evacuation at its North Sea Valhall platform on weather concerns),

    Other news: ENZN +26.1% (light volume, still checking - traded ex-dividend yesterday), PSTI +24.2% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for its compound for the treatment of severe preeclampsia), FNJN +9.2% (US PTO has granted its subsidiary patent covering malicious mobile code runtime monitoring system and methods), CMRX +9% (Steve Cohen's Point72 Asset Management discloses passive 5.3% stake), ANFI +8% (enters into a $92 mln contract to supply third party branded basmati rice to a repeat customer in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region), CHLN +7.4% (shareholders approve reverse stock split), OXGN +6.7% (treatment of neuroendocrine tumors (fosbretabulin tromethamine) granted FDA orphan designation), UWILN +2.9% (yesterday confirmed subsidiary License Agreement with Toshiba), WBAI +2.4% (rebounding from intraday move lower on Muddy mention), LPSN +1.7% (still checking), TASR +1.1% (TheTimesOfIsrael details that Israeli police officer will soon be equipped with body camera), LMT +1% (awarded ~$1.06 bln definitization modification DoD contract), OLED +0.9% (continued strength), TSLA +0.8% (light volume, continued strength), BT +0.5% (VOD / LBTYA sympathy), MTW +0.3% (Abrams Capital Management discloses a 5.29% passive stake via a 13G filing).

    Analyst comments: PBMD +13.5% (initiated with a Buy at ROTH Capital; tgt $6), CARA +2% (named Top Pick for 2016 at Piper Jaffray)

    Gapping down:
    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
    SBGL -3.5%, BHP -1.5%, BBL -1.4%, MT -1.2%, GOLD -1.1%.

    Other news: ABGB -16.7% (discloses response to Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores; confirms is currently preparing a business plan that will be focused on restructuring the Group's debt, but no agreements have been reached to date with any creditors), AVXL -7.3% (continued pullback), OTIV -4.2% (discloses update on Supercom (SPCB) $17.5 mln lawsuit; co rejects SuperCom's allegations), CYTR -3.3% (files $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering), MSTX -2.8% (Icahn files amended 13D disclosing liquidated position), GBSN -2.7% (updates on current outstanding common stock, warrants count), FXCM -2.6% (continuing yesterday's pullback - still up 60% on the week), QUNR -2.3% (still checking), AEZS -2.1% (confirms filing a preliminary base shelf prospectus for $150 mln in mixed securities), PHG -1.8% (still checking), MEMP -1.7% (continued weakness), SBSA -1.6% (announces FCC approval to exchange stations in Puerto Rico), NGG -1.5% (still checking), SWHC -0.6% (reports of anticipated additional gun control initiatives)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • USA töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust kõrgemad, kuid pühadeaegset ühe nädala hüpet tõenäoliselt väga tõsiselt ei võeta

    US JOBLESS CLAIMS +20K TO 287K IN DEC 26 WK; 270K EXPECTED
  • Chicago PMI on halvaks indikatsiooniks järgmisel nädalal avaldatava ISMi jaoks....pärast novembri -7,5 kukkumist järgnes detsembris veel 5,8punktine nõrgenemine madalaimale tasemele alates 2009

    USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (DEC): 42.9 actual vs 50.0 estimate, 48.7 prior
    New Orders lowest since May 2009: Production and Employment back into contraction.
  • Tuletan korra veel meelde, et täna on USA turud avatud tavapärase ajani ehk 23.00 ni, aga LHV võtab orderid vastu kuni kella 20.00ni.

    Head vana- aasta lõppu!

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