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Börsipäev 19. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuna Ühendriikides olid väärtpaberiturud Martin Luther King Jr päeva tõttu suletud, osutus ka Euroopas sessioon tavapärasest vaiksemaks. Päeva alustati plusspoolel, kuid pangad ja jaemüüjad vedasid Stoxx 600 indeksi lõpuks 0,4% miinusesse. Brenti hind alanes -1,4% 28,55 dollarile, kui turuosalised seedisid Iraani sanktsioonide eemaldamise mõju globaalsele nafta pakkumisele.

    Öösel avaldatud Hiina makromajanduslikud näitajad kujunesid oodatust pisut nõrgemaks. Kuigi 2015.a kasvas sisemajanduse kogutoodang 6,9%, jäädes sellega ametnike prognoositud seitsme protsendi lähedale, siis aasta lõpus kaotas majandus hoogu. Neljanda kvartali SKP kasv aeglustus 6,8% peale (oodati 6,9%), detsembrikuu jaemüügi kasv nõrgenes -0,1pp võrra 11,1%le (oodati 11,3%) ning tööstustoodang suurenes mullusega võrreldes 5,9%, mis oli aeglasem novembri 6,2%st ning analüütikute prognoositud 6,0%st.



    Päev enne statistika avaldamist tõdes Hiina peaminister Li Keqiang, et Hiina majandus seisab silmitsi suureneva vastutuulega, kutsudes ministreid ja provintside juhte välja arendama uusi majanduslikke katalüsaatoreid ning täiustama traditsioonilisi tööstusharusid, mis aitaksid kiiret kasvu luua. Reaktsioon Aasia börsidel osutus positiivseks, kui Hiina Shanghai Composite tõusis 3,1%, Jaapani Nikkei kosus 0,6% ja Hongkongi Hang Seng indeks 1,5%. Arvestades viimase kahe nädala korrektsiooni, võisid Hiina pehmemad näitajad olla juba hindadesse sisse arvestatud.

    Tänase börsipäeva keskmes saavad olema Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute jaanuarikuu kindlustunde indeksid ning USA majade ehitajate sentimendi küsitlus. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused Bank of America, Delta Air Lines, Mogan Stanley, IBM ja Netflix.

    09.00 Saksmaa inflatsioon (detsembri lõplik)
    11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (detsember)
    12.00 Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeksid (jaanuar)
    12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (detsembri lõplik)
    17.00 USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks (jaanuar)
  • Bloombergi enda mudel, mida pannakse kokku erinevatest kuistest näitajatest alates jaemüügist ja lõpetades elektri tootmisega, viitas Hiina SKP 6,69% kasvule detsembris, aeglustudes novembri 6,85% pealt.
  • Investeerimisjärgu võlakirju on hakatud müüma ka Euroopas, millega on kasvanud tulususte vahe valitsuse võlakirjadega A Hint of Trouble in European Debt
  • Unilever (+1,7% @ 2892 penni) teatas lõppenud majandusaastal puhaskasumi -5% vähenemisest Y/Y ehk €4,9 mld peale, kuna võrdlusperioodi kasumit suurendasid ühekordsed tulud. Samas nii ettevõtte käive kui kasum äritegevusest kasvasid lõppenud majandusaastal (saades oluliselt tuge ka valuutakursside liikumisest) – vastavalt +10% Y/Y ehk €53,3 mld peale (sh valuutakursside mõju oli 5,9%) ning +12% Y/Y ehk €7,9 mld peale. Ettevõtte ärikasumi marginaal paranes samal ajal 14,8% peale aastataguse 14,5% pealt. Orgaaniline käibe kasv kiirenes majandusaastal +4,1% peale (sh müügimaht kasvas +2,1% ning hind +1,9%) aastataguse 2,9% pealt. Samal ajal kiirenes müügi kasv arenevatel turgudel +7,1% peale aastataguse +5,7% pealt ning seda suuresti tänu hinnatõusule. Aasta jooksul genereeris ettevõte €4,8 mld vaba rahavoogu ehk +55% Y/Y.

    Alates aasta algusest on Unileveri aktsia odavnenud -1,2% ning kaupleb 19,8-korda ettevaatavat (2016) kasumit.
  • Suurbritannia alusinflatsioon kiirenes detsembris 0,2pp võrra 1,4%ni, ületades analüütikute 1,2% ootust.
  • Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute sentiment on pidanud üllatavalt hästi vastu aktsiaturu langusele, kui majanduse jooksva hinnangu indeks kerkis 4,7 punkti 59,7punktile (prognoositi 53,1) ning järgmise poole aasta väljavaate hinnang langes 5,9 punkti 10,2 punktile (oodati 8,0).
  • IMF langetab oma kvartaalses ülevaates nii selle aasta kui ka tuleva aasta ootusi

    IMF Cuts 2016 Global Growth Forecast to 3.4% From 3.6%
    IMF cuts 2017 growth forecast to 3.6% vs 3.8% in Oct.
    IMF cuts forecast for emerging and developing economies to 4.3% this yr vs 4.5% in Oct.
    IMF’s China growth forecasts unchanged at 6.3% for 2016, 6% for 2017
    IMF cuts Brazil GDP forecast to -3.5% in 2016 vs -1% in Oct. forecast; 2017 forecast at 0% growth
    IMF cuts Russia GDP forecast to -1% in 2016 vs -0.6% in Oct. forecast
    IMF cuts 2016 U.S. growth forecast to 2.6% vs 2.8%
    IMF raises 2016 euro-area growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.6%
    IMF’s 2016 U.K. growth forecast unchanged at 2.2%
    “This coming year is going to be a year of great challenges and policy makers should be thinking about short-term resilience and the ways they can bolster it, but also about the longer-term growth prospects,” IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld says in fund article accompanying forecast
    Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to downside, with the world facing three big adjustments:
    Emerging-market slowdown, China’s shift to growth driven less by exports and manufacturing, Federal Reserve’s gradual exit from ultra-low interest rates
  • Tiffany jaanuaris lõppeva majandusaasta aktsiakasum jääb varasema ootuse alumisse äärde (konsensus 3,88)

    TIFFANY SEES FY16 EARNINGS DOWN ABOUT 10%, SAW DOWN 5%-10%
    TIFFANY SEES YR EARNINGS DECLINE ABOUT 10% FROM $4.20
    TIFFANY TO RECORD 4Q CHARGE 4C/SHR FOR STAFF CUTS

  • Bank of America prelim Q4 $0.28 vs $0.27 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $19.8 bln vs $19.89 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Morgan Stanley prelim Q4 $0.43 ex-DVA vs $0.34 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $7.7 bln vs $7.47 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Analüüsimajad on vaikselt lükanud intressimäära tõstmise ootust UKs aasta teise poolde ning Mark Carney kõnest võib välja lugeda sama hoiakut

    *Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says oil prices, China volatility, pay moderation mean conditions not right to tighten monetary policy.
    * Says there are three key metrics for assessing timing for policy tightening
    * Sustained growth momentum “relative to trend”
    * Domestic cost growth compatible with 2% inflation
    * Core inflation “moving notably” to CPI goal
    * “We need to see cumulative progress in these three areas to have reasonable confidence that inflation is on track to return to the target and that a modest tightening in monetary policy will be necessary to ensure it does so sustainably”
    * Progress since last summer on these items “insufficient” to warrant tighter policy
    * “The world is weaker and growth has slowed”
    * Oil-price collapse means inflation “will likely remain very low for longer”
    * Risk to global outlook remain due to China challenges, emerging market fragility, potential for financial contagion
    * Slowdown in U.K. pay growth “gives pause to the inference that the labor market is as tight as would be suggested by the drop in unemployment alone”
    * MPC “must remain vigilant for signs that low inflation is having second-round effects in the wage bargain, possibly via inflation expectations”
    * Recent sterling weakness, if it persists, may moderate drag on core inflation
    * Private domestic demand “is still solid”
    * Says MPC wants to return inflation to target in 2 yrs without overshoot
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    TIF -3.9%, (reports holiday comps; guidance WIT -0.5%

    M&A news: SU -1.9% (Suncor Energy and Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF) amend acquisition offer), SAND -0.9% (Sandstorm Gold (SAND) has agreed to acquire 56 royalties from co for $22 mln)

    Other news: EBIO -52.3% (Phase 3 data on Isunakinra which missed primary endpoint of ocular itching), EC -4.9% (Moody's downgraded Ecopetrol to Baa3-triggered by persisting stressed oil prices; placed ratings on review for further downgrade), HDP -3.2% (files $100 mln common stock offering; also raises Q4 guidance (in line with estimates)), FTK -3% (announces retention of MHA Petroleum Consultants by CnF Special Technical Committee; Announces select, preliminary Q4 results; appointment of Independent Board Committee and SEC inquiry), SYT -2% (cont pre-mkt vol surrounding M&A spec), PBR -1.5% (reports its oil and natural gas production for 2015; period average of 2.128 mln barrels per day was 4.6% higher than the previous year ), HMY -1.2% (still checking), BLCM -0.5% (files $150 mln mixed securities shelf offering)

    Analyst comments:
    SRPT -2.7% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkt)

    Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    UN +4.5%, MS +3%, DAL +2.2%, BAC +2%, SN +1.1%, CMA +1.1%, UNH +0.8%, FHN +0.8%, MTB +0.5%

    M&A news: BITI +80.8% (to be acquired by Acorda (ACOR) for $25.60 per ADS), RSE +26% (Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) proposes to acquire Rouse for $17.00/share in cash), SUNE +5.8% (acquires 33% stake in remaining 231 megawatt portion of Dominion's (D) 567 megawatt solar portfolio for $117 mln and sells said stake to Terra Nova for same price), ERIC +4.4% (Ericsson to acquire FYI TV), SHPG +3.1% (Barron's profiles positive view on Shire (SHPG) based on Baxalta (BXLT) M&A deal), TCK +1.6% (Teck Resources: Sandstorm Gold (SAND) has agreed to acquire 56 royalties from co for $22 mln), MSFT +1.4% (will be acquiring MinecraftEdu)

    Select China related names showing strength:
    JKS +9.5%, MOMO +5.5%, CSIQ +5.2%, JMEI +4.8%, SPWR +4.7%, QUNR +3.4%, JASO +3.4%, JD +3.3%, BABA +2.5%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +9.7%, CLF +7.1%, AU +4.9%, FCX +4.8%, BBL +3.1%, BHP +3%, AA +1.7%, VALE +0.8%

    Other news: CRDC +40% (Receives FDA clearance for expanded indications of Surgical Stapling Device), CANF +18.1% (announced that the USPTO has issued a Notice of Allowance for a patent titled, "A3 Adenosine Receptor Allosteric Modulators"), BSI +10.8% (Court grants temporary stay of legal proceedings against Mega Retail; also confirms it has received an number of offers to purchase the Company's holdings in Blue Square Real Estate), ZPIN +8.8% (received going private proposal valued at $17.50 per ADS and $8.75 per ordinary share), ATV +7% (cont strength), SNY +5.6% (strong EU mkts overnight), PUK +5.1% (still checking), TTM +5.1% (appoints new CEO), NRZ +5% (announces $200 mln share repurchase program), WMB +4.4% (Board is unanimously committed to completing the transaction with Energy Transfer Equity (ETE)), DDD +4.1% (still checking), INCY +2.9% (Incyte and Lilly (LLY) announce Submission of New Drug Application to FDA for Oral Once-Daily Baricitinib), BBRY +2.5% (reports co was awarded a $20 million multiple-year delivery order), CARA +2.1% (may be related to BITI merger), RIO +2.4% (reports Q4 production results), YHOO +2.1% (in symp with BABA), NVS +2% (received two new FDA approvals for Cosentyx to treat patients with ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic arthritis in the US), GPRO +1.9% (strength in broader mkt this am), NFLX +1.9% (positive WSJD story), FB +1.8% (WhatsApp to pull its yearly subscription fee, test other monetization), BIIB +1.7% (reports EU approval for BENEPALI ), NGG +1.1% (Canadian funds are considering taking stake in NGG, according to Telegraph), SN +1.1% (reports average production of average production of 58,115 boe/day during the 4Q15; lowers 2016 Capital Budget guidance)

    Analyst comments: EXEL +5.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners), SHOP +5.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley ), SHAK +4.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), P +4.8% (upgraded to Neutral at BTIG Research), KITE +4.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital; tgt $75), SWIR +4.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland Capital), SWKS +3% (upgraded to Buy at Needham), AZN +1.9% (upgraded to Equal Weight, ResMed (RMD) downgraded to Underweight at Barclays)

    Allikas: Briefing.com
  • USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks püsis jaanuaris 60 punkti peal (detsember revideeriti allapoole punkti võrra) vs oodatud 61 punkti
  • NFLX Q1 Sub Add Guidance- Domestic Net Adds 1.75 mln vs 2.01 mln Briefing.com consensus; International Net Adds 4.35 mln vs 3.39 mln Briefing.com consensus

    NFLX +9% @118
  • Nelli Janson
    NFLX Q1 Sub Add Guidance- Domestic Net Adds 1.75 mln vs 2.01 mln Briefing.com consensus; International Net Adds 4.35 mln vs 3.39 mln Briefing.com consensus

    NFLX +9% @118


    Netflix prelim Q4 $0.10 vs $0.02 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.82 bln vs $1.83 bln Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q1 EPS $0.03 vs. $0.03 Consensus

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