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Börsipäev 20. jaanuar

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  • Kuigi meedias vaatasid vastu pealkirjad Hiina majanduskasvu aeglustumisest madalaimale tasemele viimase 25a jooksul ning IMF kärpis maailmamajanduse kasvuprognoose (2016.a 3,4% vs oktoobris prognoositud 3,6% ning 2017.a oodatakse SKP suurenemist 3,8% asemel 3,6%), suutsid aktsiaturud jääda eile positiivseks. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 1,3% kõrgemal, Ühendriikides jäi S&P 500 indeksi päeva esimese poole 1,1% tõusust lõpuks järgi vaid 0,05%, mis näitab, et turud on jätkuvalt surve alla ning hüppeid ülespoole kasutatakse võimalusena positsioone likvideerida. Närvilisust lisas USA sessiooni ajal nafta, mis WTI näol odavnes -3,3% 28,46 dollarile ning on kirjutamise hetkel jätkanud allapoole vajumist 27,6 dollarile.

    Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute sentiment osutus jaanuaris oodatust tugevamaks, kui praeguse majandusliku olukorra hinnangut kajastav indeks kerkis 4,7 punkti 59,7 punktile (oodati 53,1), mis on kõrgeim alates septembrist ning järgmise kuue kuu väljavaadet peegeldav indeks alanes oodatud 8,1 punkti asemel 5,9 punkti 10,2 punktile (madalaim alates oktoobrist). Kuigi finantsekspertide arvamuse põhjal võiks järeldada, et Saksamaa majandus on suutnud aasta alguses Hiina aeglustuvat kasvu edukalt trotsida, aitab tõesemat pilti anda info otse ettevõtetelt, mida kajastavad reedel PMI küsitlused ning järgmisel nädalal IFO kindlustunde indeksid.

    Ühendriikides püsis majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks jaanuaris 60 punkti peal, mis ei jää väga kaugele oktoobris saavutatud kümne aasta tipust (65 punkti). Nõrgemad olid aga ettevaatavad komponendid: järgmise kuue kuu müügiootuste indeks langes kolme punkti võrra 63 punktile (madalaim alates maist) ning potentsiaalsete ostjate liiklust kajastav indeks alanes kahe punkti võrra 44 punkti peale (madalaim alates juulist). Võimalikuks mõjuteguriks võib olla inimeste ootus, et intressimäärad liiguvad ülespoole, samas on keeruline hinnata, kas ka aktsiaturgude korrektsioon on suuremate ostude tegemist edasi lükkamas.

    Aasias on aktsiaturud pärast eilset hingetõmmet jätkanud kukkumist, kui Jaapanis langes Nikkei 225 -3,7%, kasvatades indeksi kaotust alates augusti tipust -21%ni. Hiinas kauples Shanghai Composite -1,3% punases, Hongkongi Hang Seng loovutas -3,9%.

    Tänase börsipäeva jooksul tulevad avaldamisele Suurbritannia tööturu statistika ja USA detsembrikuu inflatsioon. Samuti selguvad Ühendriikides detsembris alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arv. Kanada keskpank peaks jätma intressimäära 0,5% peale, kuigi paljud ei välista toornafta hinnalanguse tõttu pihta saava majanduse toetamist madalama intressimääraga.

    11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused (detsember)
    11.30 Suurbritannia kolme kuu keskmine töötuse määr (november)
    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arv (detsember)
    15.30 USA inflatsioon (detsember)
    17.00 Kanada keskpanga intressimäära otsus
  • Kasvanud võlakoormate tõttu võib OECD esindaja sõnul finantssüsteemi ees oodata pankrotilaine

    "The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

    World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran
  • Shell ootab neljanda kvartali kasumi jäämist üsna ootuste lähedale

    SHELL SEES 4Q ADJ. PROFIT IN $1.6B-$1.9B RANGE; EST. $1.8B
    SHELL SEES 4Q CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES $4.8B–$6B
    SHELL SAYS OPERATING COSTS REDUCED BY $4B OR AROUND 10% IN '15
    SHELL SEES COSTS TO FALL AGAIN IN '16 BY A FURTHER $3B
    SHELL/BG 2016 CAPITAL SPENDING SEEN AT $33B, DOWN 45% FROM PEAK
    SHELL CEO SAYS HAS `FLEXIBILITY' FOR FURTHER CAPEX REDUCTIONS
    SHELL EXPECTS 2016 DIVIDENDS OF AT LEAST $1.88/SHR
  • Euroopa Keskpanga nõukogu liikme Ewald Nowotny sõnul muudab nafta hinna edasine langus inflatsiooni eesmärgi saavutamise keerulisemaks ning varade ostuprogrammi mõju pole olnud nõnda edukas nagu loodeti

    ECB'S NOWOTNY SAYS DIFFICULT TO REACH ECB INFLATION GOAL
    NOWOTNY SAYS OIL PRICE DROP IS EXTRAORDINARY
    NOWOTNY: CORE INFLATION `MORE IN EQUILIBRIUM' VS HEADLINE INFL
    NOWOTNY SAYS ABS PURCHASES HAVEN'T BEEN SUCCESFUL AS HOPED
    NOWOTNY SAYS MONETARY POLICY HAS LIMITS
    NOWOTNY SAYS NEED FISCAL, STRUCTURAL POLICIES IN ADDITION
    NOWOTNY SAYS CHINA STOCK SLUMP IS RATHER `PSYCHOLOGICAL'
    NOWOTNY SAYS U.S. RATE INCREASE HAS WORKED RATHER SMOOTHLY
  • Jeenist on hakatud kaitset otsima, mis on aidanud valuutal dollari vastu tugevneda kuuga ca 6%. See aga seab ohtu Abe ja Kuroda suure plaani, sest tugevam valuuta survestab ettevõtete kasumeid, mis võib omakorda vähendada võimet palkasid tõsta ning majanduses inflatsioonilist survet luua.
  • Stoxx 600 kaupleb enerigja ja finantside eestvedamisel -3,1% madalamal ning kogu indeksi peale vaid kaheksa tõusjat
  • investeerimisotsuste langetamine praeguses keskkonnas ei ole lihtne ning selleks, et ostunuppu vajutada, on vaja leida pidepunkte, mis näitaksid, et olukord maailmamajanduses ei ole nõnda hull nagu hinnainfo peegeldab. Siin võiks olla üks märk:

    *Asia-Europe shipping volumes are picking up little bit after “pretty difficult 2015,” Maersk CEO Nils Smedegaard Andersen says in Davos interview with Bloomberg TV’s Jonathan Ferro.
    * Europe is in “a pretty good spot” with competitive euro, very low energy prices
    * Fundamentally there are “a lot of good things” going on in the global economy
    * Still, IMF’s new lower global GDP forecast for 2016 of 3.4% is probably “optimistic”
    * More risk to downside given pessimistic tone on stock market, China
    * China’s shift to domestic consumption will be healthy for global economy
    * Fundamentally, China’s economy will do well long term as leadership is doing “the right thing”
    * “We have to applaud it and be a little bit patient”
  • Bloombergis on intervjuu endise Bundesbanki juhi ja praeguse UBSi esimehe Axel Weberiga, kalle sõnul pole maailmamajandus suundumas allamäge: Global Economy Not in a Downward Spiral

    • China’s authorities have plenty of ammunition left to stabilize economy, UBS Chairman Axel Weber says in interview with Bloomberg Television.
    • China will go through correction, become stronger after, Weber says
    • Some policy reactions were late in China, Brazil, other emerging markets
    • China is a “slowly turning tanker,” Weber says
    • Central banks have tried to “reflate” economy but inflation will remain “muted,” Weber says
    • Oil price may not have bottomed out, Weber says
    • Central banks should be “very clear” in market guidance, he says
    • Weber expects Fed to continue raising rates
    •UBS Chairman Axel Weber says in interview with Bloomberg TV at World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, markets need reassurance on medium-term outlook.
    • “If policy doesn’t want to run into credibility trap, they need to give this guidance and follow through”
    • Says he doesn’t see a Fed rate cut “at all” in 2016
    • “Face a policy-credibility issue” in the global economy
    • There is some lack of guidance on outlook; guidance given isn’t perceived as “credible”
    • Turning points are always “hard to predict”
    • Fed will only hike rates if growth continues
    • Fed will continue to tighten, growth “will be strong”
  • Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused kahanesid detsembris -4,3 tuhande võrra, osutudes paremaks kui oodatud 2,8 tuhande suurune kasv. Töötuse määr alanes 0,1pp võrra 5,1% peale ning boonuseid arvestamata oli kolme kuu keskmine palgakasv novembris 1,9% (2,0% oktoobris ning oodati 1,8%).
  • Goldman Sachs Q4 EPS $4.31 adj., may not compare to $3.62 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $7.27 bln vs $7.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • USA alusinflatsioon osutus ootuspäraseks (pole küll see mõõdik, mida FED jälgib), kinnisvarastatistika oli mixed

    US CPI Ex-Food and Energy (YoY) Dec: 2.10% (est 2.10%; prev 2.00%)
    US Housing Starts Dec: 1149K (est 1200K; rev prev 1179K)
    US Building Permits Dec: 1232K (est 1200K; rev prev 1282K)
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    GNC +14.6%, CLMT +5%, AMTD +2%, CREE +1.7%, ASML +1.7%, LLTC +1.6%, NLS +1.5%, ADTN +1.5%, TEL +0.8%, APH +0.7%

    Select gold mining stocks trading higher:
    HMY +9.3%, IAG +5.2%, HL +3.3%, ABX +3%, GG +2.8%, GFI +2.5%, NEM +2.4%, AEM +2%, GLD +1.2%

    Other news: ZFGN +37% ( positive efficacy results from the bestPWS ZAF-311 Phase 3 trial), SYN +21.7% (The second Phase 2 clinical trial of SYN-010 for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome with constipation met its primary endpoint), CBAY +17.3% (Announces Successful Completion of End-of-Phase 2 Discussions With FDA for Arhalofenate), SFUN +5.5% (made significant progress on acquisition of controlling stake in Chongqing Wanli New Energy), PESI +5.1% (part of winning team led by CH2M Hill selected by US Navy for a $240 mln, 5-year Comprehensive Long-Term Environmental Action Navy (CLEAN) contract), CLMT +5% (declared $0.685 dividend, unchanged from prior dividend; reaffirmed objective of providing all unitholders a stable-to-growing quarterly cash distribution), SCS +2.1% (Board approved a $150 mln increase to its share repurchase program)

    Analyst comments: BSFT +2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)

    Gapping down
    Briefing note: With US Futures down ~1.5% in pre-mkt, most stocks are trading lower. The following represents stocks lower on more specific items.
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    IBM -6%, AMD -4.6%, EAT -4.6%, IBKR -4.4%, RDS.A -3.7%, PACB -2.7%, GS -1.6%

    Select financial related names showing weakness: HSBC -3.8%, CS -3.8%, DB -3.3%, BAC -3.3%, BCS -3.2%, C -2.9%, ING -2.7%, LYB -2.7%, JPM -2.3%

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness:
    WLL -9.7%, LEI -8.1%, DVN -5.8%, CHK -5.2%, PBR -4.7%, STO -4.2%, TOT -3.2%, APC -2.9%, SLB -2.9%

    Other news: THS -7.8% (to offer up to $750 mln in common stock to fund part of its acquisition of ConAgra's (CAG) Private Brands business), SUNE -6.5% (still checking), BHP -6% (reported FY15 op metrics), DOC -5.7% (upsizes and prices 18.5 mln shares of common stock at $15.75), MU -4.3% (following AMD results), SSS -3.5% ( commences a public offering of 2.3 mln shares of common stock), BABA -3.3% (weakness in Chinese mkts overnight), BIDU -2.7% (weakness in Chinese mkts overnight)

    Analyst comments: SDRL -10.8% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), FTNT -6.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), VALE -6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC Securities), RACE -2.2% (initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $37), TIF -2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), PRU -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill)

    Briefing.com
  • BANK OF CANADA MAINTAINS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 0.5%
    CAD Bank of Canada cuts 2016 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 2% and raises 2015 GDP estimate to 1.2% from 1.1%.

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