Börsipäev 17. veebruar
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Euroopas võeti pärast kahepäevast ligi 6% tõusu kasumit, kui Stoxx 600 loovutas -0,4%. Energiasektori aktsiad andsid päeva teises pooles osa võidust tagasi pärast uudist, et maailma kaks suurimat naftatootjat (Saudi Araabia ja Venemaa) on jõudnud kokkuleppeni külmutada oma tootmine rekordtasemete juures. Pettumuse aluseks võis olla seik, et tootmise vähendamise asemel ollakse nõus kõigest pakkumist stabiilsena hoidma ja lisaks eeldab selle materialiseerumine teiste suuremate tootjate osalemist. Täna asuvad kokkulepet arutama Iraak ja Iraan, kes on kaks võtmetähendusega riiki, kuna nende arvelt peaks OPECi kogutoodang tänavu kasvama. Ühendriikide aktsiaturg pani päevale punkti korraliku tõusuga, kui S&P 500 indeksi 1,7% rallit vedasid kestvuskaupade ja tööstussektori aktsiad.
USA töötlevas tööstuses näitas esimene regionaalne küsitlus veebruaris marginaalseid paranemise märke, kui New Yorki aktiivsusindeks kerkis ligi seitsme aasta põhjast 2,73 punkti -16,64 punktile, mis jäi analüütikute prognoositud -10 punktile alla. Kuigi nii uute tellimuste indeks kui ka tööhõive indeks viitasid jätkuvale langusele, võis viimaste puhul siiski täheldada üldindeksiga võrreldes suuremat paranemist. Uute tellimuste indeks kerkis -23,5 punktilt -11,6 punktile ja tööhõive indeks -13,0 punktilt -1,0 punktile.
USA majade ehitajate kindlustunne sai veebruaris taas kannatada, kui indeks on oktoobrikuu tipust 65 punkti pealt tulnud 58 punkti peale. Lisaks sellele, et ehitajad kurdavad juba mõnda aega kalli ning raskesti leitava tööjõu ja vabade maalappide üle, peegeldas veebruari langus ka tarbijate muret majandustrendide pärast (ostjate liiklust kajastav indeks kukkus viie punkti jagu 39 punktile). Tuleviku osas jäävad ehitajad siiski optimistlikuks (kuue kuu ettevaatav indeks kerkis ühe punkti võrra 65 punkti peale), kuna tööturu tingimuste jätkuv paranemine, madalad intressimäärad ja tagasi hoitud nõudlus peaksid aitama kasvatada uute majade müüki.
Tänane börsipäev toob Suurbritannia jaanuarikuu töötu abiraha taotlused ning detsembrikuu töötusemäära, Ühendriikides jälgitakse jaanuari kinnisvarastatistikat, töötustoodangu muutust ning FOMC jaanuari istungi protokolli.
11.30 Suurbritannia tööturu statistika (detsember, jaanuar)
15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused ning väljastatud ehituslubade arv (jaanuar)
15.30 USA tootjahinnaindeksi muutus (jaanuar)
16.15 USA tööstustoodang (jaanuar)
21.00 USA FOMC jaanuari istungi protokoll -
Austria keskpanga juht üritab turu ootusi EKP 10. märtsi istungiks allapoole tuua
*ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is concerned market expectations ahead of March 10 ECB meeting could become as excessive as in Dec. when expectations had “lost touch with reality,” Swiss financial website Cash reports.
* Central banks must watch markets but not be guided by markets, Cash cites Nowotny as saying in interview
* Global market turbulence mainly driven by emerging market developments, particularly by sovereign funds aiming to ensure liquidity
* No doubt that market turmoil constitutes “a massive destruction of value, which is very negative for overall sentiment”
* ECB was very successful in preventing deflation in euro zone and keeping credit markets intact
* Monetary policy can only improve conditions for growth but actual investments have to be made by investors
* Didn’t expect oil to drop below $30/bbl; expects price to stabilize in 2H 2016
* Rising govt bond yields in southern Europe a reflection of market nervousness and governments would be well advised to take note of market reaction to their policies
* Greece made significant progress, stabilized its banking system
* Extremely important for current govt to stay in office to see through reforms
* Greece is in the process of “internal devaluation,” which takes time -
Viskan siia ülevaate osade institutsionaalsete investorite tehingutest 2015.a neljandas kvartalis
Paulson & Co
New positions in: LIVN (~3.6 mln shares), AKRX (~2.9 mln) PFE (~0.6 mln) RIGL (~0.5 mln) ETSY (~0.4 mln) DPLO (~0.2 mln) INSM (~0.2 mln), ABBV (~0.1 mln), DWRE (~0.1 mln)
Increased positions in: VRX (to ~13.3 mln shares from ~8.9 mln shares), MLNK (to ~8.6 mln from ~6.6 mln), ENL (to ~3.3 mln from ~1.7 mln)
Decreased positions in: CVC (to ~3.1 mln shares from ~7.8 mln shares), CIT (to ~3.5 mln from ~7 mln), GLD (to ~5.8 mln from ~9.2 mln), OAS (to ~5.4 mln from ~8.3 mln), FCH (to ~2 mln from ~3 mln), FCH (to ~2 mln from ~3 mln)
Closed positions in: MGM (from ~5.8 mln shares), HCA (from ~4.7 mln) ALTR (from ~3.5 mln) CAM (from ~3 mln) INXN (from ~2.5 mln) CYBX (from ~1.9 mln), CSC (from ~0.7 mln), AET (from ~0.4 mln) HHC (from ~0.2 mln)
Icahn Associates Holdings
New positions in: XRX (~86.4 mln shares), PEP (~6.6 mln)
Increased positions in: AIG (to ~42.2 mln shares from ~1.4 mln shares), LNG (to ~32.7 mln from ~28.5 mln), FCX (to ~104 mln from ~100 mln), HTZ (to ~63.7 mln from ~51.9 mln)
Decreased positions in: AAPL (to ~45.8 mln shares from ~52.8 mln shares), TGNA (to ~12.8 mln from ~21.5 mln)
Soros Fund
New positions in: CPGX (~3.7 mln shares), HERO (~1.4 mln), MPC (~1.2 mln), SYF (~7.1 mln)
Increased positions in: ODP (to ~13.2 mln shares from ~9.4 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: ROVI (to ~0.1 mln shares from ~4.1 mln shares), EBAY (to ~3.4 mln from ~5.4 mln), YPF (to ~1.2 mln from ~10.1 mln)
Closed positions in: VIPS (from ~5.9 mln shares), LUV (from ~1.3 mln), SFUN (from ~2 mln), SCHW (from ~1.3 mln), RDN (from ~1.1 mln), PMCS (from ~11.2 mln)
Berkshire Hathaway
New positions in: KMI (~26.5 mln shares)
Increased positions in: DE (to ~22.9 mln shares from ~17.1 mln shares)
Closed positions in: CBI (from ~2 mln shares)
Greenlight Capital
New positions in: EMC (~2 mln shares), CC (~3.4 mln), DSW (~3.5 mln), M (~6.7 mln), MYL (~2.9 mln) TERP (~2.9 mln),
Increased positions in: DDS (to ~1.7 mln shares from ~1.2 mln shares), GRMN (to ~0.8 mln from ~0.6 mln), IAC (to ~2.5 mln from ~1.5 mln), SUNE (to ~40.9 mln from ~18.6 mln), TWX (to ~6.4 mln from ~3.8 mln), FOXA (to ~4.3 mln from ~3.2 mln)
Decreased positions in: ACM (to ~3.2 mln shares from ~6.5 mln shares), AAPL (to ~6.3 mln from ~11.7 mln), CBI (to ~3.5 mln from ~7.5 mln), ON (to ~3.1 mln from ~17.3 mln), SEMI (to ~0.5 mln from ~1.9 mln)
Closed positions in: AMAT (from ~5 mln shares), BK (from ~4 mln), MU (from ~12.4 mln), SC (from ~3.8 mln)
3G Capital discloses
New positions in: BHI (~0.4 mln shares), PE (~1 mln), RSPP (~1 mln), WLL (~1 mln)
Increased positions in: CVX (to ~0.7 mln shares from ~0.3 mln shares), LYB (to ~0.4 mln from ~0.3 mln)
Decreased positions in: C (to ~0.3 mln shares from ~0.4 mln shares), MPC (to ~0.6 mln from ~1 mln), MSFT (to ~0.6 mln from ~1 mln)
Closed positions in: COG (from ~1.5 mln shares), HAL (from ~0.2 mln), SLB (from ~0.4 mln), SUNE (from ~0.8 mln), PAH (from ~2.3 mln)
Hayman Capital
Closes positions in ADHD, AGN, BMRN, CF, ENDP, GWPH, IPXL, MYL, DNAI, VRTX.
Oaktree Capital
New positions in: BANR (~2.6 mln shares), GGB (~8.8 mln), APO (~0.4 mln), PARR (~0.2 mln), VALE (~0.3 mln)
Increased positions in: CPLP (to ~0.8 mln shares from ~0.6 mln shares), FIG (to ~2.4 mln from ~0.6 mln), TSM (to ~4.5 mln from ~2.5 mln)
Decreased positions in: BANC (to ~1.3 mln shares from ~2 mln shares), VSH (to ~1.5 mln from ~2.2 mln)
Closed positions in: TV (from ~1.4 mln shares), GOGL (from ~1 mln), NRG (from ~0.7 mln)
Appaloosa Management
New positions in: KMI (~10.9 mln shares), ABY (~6.3 mln), ETP (~5.1 mln), TERP (~7.6 mln), FCX (~3.6 mln), PFE (~2.4 mln)
Increased positions in: ALL (to ~2.9 mln shares from ~0.6 mln shares), LUV (to ~4.3 mln from ~1.6 mln)
Decreased positions in: GT (to ~2.1 mln shares from ~5.9 mln shares), NXPI (to ~0.8 mln from ~2.3 mln)
Closed positions in: JBLU (from ~4.5 mln shares), TEX (from ~1.7 mln), USG (from ~1.1 mln)
Third Point
New positions in: AXTA (~2.4 mln shares), MS (~3 mln)
Increased positions in: AGN (to ~5.4 mln shares from ~3.7 mln shares)
Decreased positions in: BUD (to ~1.4 mln shares from ~2.7 mln shares), CIE (to ~8.8 mln from ~92.5 mln), EBAY (to ~4 mln from ~9 mln)
Closed positions in: IAC (from ~2.5 mln shares), XON (from ~1.5 mln), NXPI (from ~2 mln) -
BofAML kuise küsitluse järgi hoiavad globaalsed varahaldurid portfellides suurimat sularaha osakaalu alates 2001, kuna ootused majanduse väljavaate ning ettevõtete kasumite osas on alla tulnud. Ajalooliselt on see töötanud hästi contrarian indikaatorina.
Global portfolio managers are not feeling enthusiastic about the world economy and decided to park their money in cash, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch in their monthly survey. They put 5.6% of their portfolio money in cash this month, the highest since November 2001. Investors are rotating money out of stocks into cash and safe-haven bonds.
Investors’ expectations towards global growth and corporate profit turned negative for the first time since July 2012. The percentage of investors thinking the global economy is in “late expansion cycle” rises above 50%, the highest since August 2008. Meanwhile, a whopping 19% now sees a recession coming, up from 12% in January. -
UBSi tehnikute arvates võivad aktsiaturud USAs ja Euroopsa lähikuudel jätkata ülespoole liikumist, kuid pikemas plaanis ei näe nad karuturu lõppu enne 2017.a
* Technical daily and weekly indicators used by UBS show a bullish divergence forming on the S&P 500 chart, UBS technical analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Müller write in note.
* With Friday’s bullish reversal, underperformer sectors have completed the wave 5 of a bear cycle
* Market sentiment is still at a multi-year low and the SPX is aggressively oversold
* See U.S. market starting multi-week corrective, volatile rebound into late 1Q/early 2Q, S&P 500 should reach minimum 1950-1964, to best case 2000
* Longer term, don’t expect current bear market to come to an end before 1Q 2017
* Break of 1820/1800, regardless of when, would suggest a next major target/support would be 1570
* Short term, European indexes starting multi-week corrective, volatile rebound into later 1Q/early 2Q, before resuming underlying bear trend into deeper summer on the back of recent break down in small and mid-caps
* After the undershooting in banks, UBS expects bounce in Euro Stoxx 50 to remain capped at 3050, to best case 3200
* On the sector front: bounce should be led by autos, chemicals, industry, energy and miners, “whereas a rebound in financials should sooner or later lose momentum”
* Gold at the beginning of a multi-year bull market, recommends buying any dips
* A break of $1250 implies a next target at $1380, which UBS expects gold to reach during the summer -
Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlejate arv kahanes jaanuaris oodatud -3,0 tuhande asemel -14,8 tuhande võrra ning positiivsemaks revideeriti ka detsembri statistikat (-4,3 tuhande pealt -15,2 tuhandele). Sellest hoolimata jäi töötuse määr püsima detsembris 5,1% peale vs oodatud 5,0%. Boonuseid arvestamata kiirenes nädalase töötasu kolme kuu keskmine kasv 0,1pp võrra 2,0%ni (oodati 1,8%), mis 0,2% inflatsiooni arvesse võttes aitab ka nõnda madala tõusu juures reaalset ostujõudu suurendada
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USA väljastatud ehituslubade arv kujunes jaanuaris üsna ootuspäraseks, alustatud elamuehitused valmistasid aga pettumuse
US Building Permits Jan: 1202K (est 1200K; rev prev 1204K)
US Building Permits (MoM) Jan: -0.20% (est -0.30%; rev prev -6.10%)
US Housing Starts Jan: 1099K (est 1173K; rev prev 1143K)
US Housing Starts (MoM) Jan: -3.80% (est 2.00%; rev prev -2.80%) -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SHOP +18.3%, ENBL +15.2%, CTIC +14%, FOSL +13.2%, SAAS +12.4%, GILT +11.7%, PBPB +11.1%, DIOD +8%, GRMN +7.9%, ATHM +5.9%, SSNI +4.6%, TMUS +4.3%, RLGT +4.2%, ZEN +3.8%, CPB +2.2%, ( raises FY16 guidance, sees FY16 $2.88-2.96 vs $2.82 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $8.00-8.08 bln vs $8.02 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 stronger than anticiptated), FTI +2.2%, BYD +2%, BBW +1.9%, VNO +1.9%
M&A news: TEX +5.4% (Zoomlion affirms commitment to advance the proposed transaction of acquiring Terex for $30/share in cash), SPLS +4.7% (Essendant (ESND) to acquire contracts with minority and woman-owned office supply resellers and their large corporate and other enterprise customers from SPLS)
Select semi conductor related names showing strength: ASX +3.4%, ARMH +2.8%, ASML +1.4%, STM +1.3%, MU +0.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +3.6%, BBL +2.6%, FCX +1.7%, GG +1.7%, GDX +1.2%, RIO +1.2%
Other news: RGLS +54.9% (announced interim results from one of the company's ongoing Phase II studies of RG-101 for the treatment of HCV), ATOS +43.6% (cont momentum higher), FLXN +23.9% (Flexion Therapeutics reports primary endpoint met in pivotal Phase 3 Trial of Zilretta in knee osteoarthritis), KMI +9.2% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing with new KMI position), LINE +6.7% (still checking), INO +5.6% (announces that preclinical testing of its synthetic vaccine for the Zika virus induced 'robust and durable' immune responses; plans to initiate phase I human testing before the end of 2016), GALE +5% (Court approved co's settlement regarding derivative litigation), SUNE +4.9% (Luxor Capital discloses new position in SUNE), PSTI +4.7% (cont strength), BTX +3.1% (BioTime and Asterias (AST) sign share transfer agreement and cross-license agreement for Pluripotent stem cell related patents), SCTY +2.8% (Elon Musk files amended 13D showing an increased stake of 22.6% (Prior 21.7%)), TTM +2.6% (cont strength)
Analyst comments: JUNO +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MEP -30.5%, RAX -15.5%, FULL -13.2%, CERN -12.5%, EEP -11.2%, MXWL -8.6%, VDSI -6.6%, ACHC -5.5%, LPI -4%, ZIXI -3.3%, DVN -2.4%, ADI -2.1%, AJRD -1.4%, HLIT -1.2%, GEO -0.9%, DPS -0.9%, ENLK -0.7%, ESRX -0.6%, HST -0.6%, CLMT -0.5%
Other news: CPRX -50.3% (receives a 'Refusal to File' letter from the FDA regarding its NDA for Firdapse; plans to request meeting w/ FDA to discuss), GRPN -2.9% (modestly pulling back following yesterday's strength), CYH -2.2% (cont weakness), POT -1% (still checking), RCL -0.9% (Tremblant Capital Group discloses reduced position)
Analyst comments: KKR -2.1% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), BTU -3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT)
Briefing.com -
USA tööstustoodang kasvas jaanuaris MoM 0,9% vs oodatud 0,4% (detsember revideeriti -0,4% pealt -0,7% peale). Positiivne oli üllatus ka töötlevas tööstuses, mille toodang suurenes MoM 0,5% vs oodatud 0,2% ning siin oli detsembri revideerimine vaid marginaalne (-0,1% pealt -0,2% peale).
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Aastatagusega kasvas USA töötleva tööstuse toodang 1,2%, mis mõistagi pole midagi silmapaistvat (detsembris 0,5%)
