Börsipäev 15. märts
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Väheste majandusuudiste tõttu ja FEDi otsuse ootuses jäid USA aktsiaturu indeksid liikuma kitsasse koridori, lõpetades S&P 500 indeksi jaoks päeva -0,1% kaotusega. Energiasektori aktsiad olid suurema müügisurve all nafta -3,4% odavnemise tõttu (WTI futuur sulgus 37,18 dollaril), reageerides nädalavahetuse uudisele, et Iraan ei kavatse oma naftatoodangut külmutada enne kui on jõudnud 4 miljoni barrelini päevas. Iraani naftatoodang kasvas eelmisel kuul pärast sanktsioonide lõppemist enim viimase kahekümne aasta jooksul, saavutades 3,13 miljoni barreli taseme. Euroopa aktsiaturud kauplesid materjalitööstuse ja kestvuskaupade sektori ettevõtete eestvedamisel teist päeva kõrgemal, aidates Stoxx 600 indeksil saada kirja 0,7% võit.
Jaapani keskpank jättis öösel intressimäära ootuspäraselt -0,1% peale, olles kärpinud seda alles jaanuaris ning samuti otsustati jätkata rahabaasi suurendamist 80 triljoni jeeni võrra aastas. Majanduse väljavaates olulisi muudatusi ei tehtud, nentides et mõõdukas taastumine jätkub. Hiina aktsiaturgudel reageeriti negatiivselt uudisele, et keskpank on koostamas reegleid Tobini maksu rakendamiseks valuutaga kauplemisel, et vähendada lühiajalisi spekulatiivseid tehinguid.
Pöörates pilgud tänasele börsipäevale, siis esikohal saab olema USA jaemüük, mis peaks konsensuse arvates jaanuarikuu oodatust tugevamaks osutunud 0,4% kasvu järel tooma veebruaris 0,2% lisa (kütust ja autosid arvestamata). NY FEDi küsitlus annab esimese ülevaate, milliseid muutusi on märts toonud piirkonna töötleva tööstuse ettevõtete jaoks.
09.45 Prantsusmaa inflatsioon (veebruari lõplik)
10.30 Rootsi inflatsioon (veebruar)
11.30 Itaalia valitsuse võlakoorem (jaanuar)
14.30 USA jaemüük (veebruar)
14.30 USA tootjahinnaindeks (veebruar)
14.30 USA NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (märts)
16.00 USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks (märts)
16.00 USA ettevõtete varud (jaanuar) -
Kuroda sõnul on inflatsiooniootused alanenud hiljuti, mis võib anda põhjuse aprilli istungil rahapoliitikat veelgi lõdvendada
KURODA: VIRTUOUS ECONOMIC CYCLE WORKING IN JAPAN'S ECONOMY
KURODA: PRODUCTION, EXPORTS ARE MUTED ON EM SLOWDOWN
KURODA: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE WEAKENED RECENTLY
KURODA: JAPAN CPI TO REACH 2% IN AROUND 1H OF FY2017
KURODA: BOJ WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL EASING STEPS IF NEEDED
KURODA:MORE EASING MAY BE IN TERMS OF QUANTITY, QUALITY OR RATE
KURODA: AWARE THAT THERE ARE VARIOUS OPINIONS ON NEGATIVE RATES
KURODA: WILL CONTINUE TO EXPLAIN THE BOJ'S NEW POLICY
KURODA: CLEAR THAT INTEREST RATES ARE FALLING DUE TO NEG. RATES
KURODA: IMPACT OF NEG. RATE WILL PENETRATE ECONOMY, PRICES
KURODA: LENDING RATES, HOME LOAN RATES ARE CLEARLY FALLING
KURODA: LABOR MARKET IMPROVING AND CORP. PROFITS ARE AT RECORD
KURODA: NEGATIVE RATES HAVE BENEFITS FOR HOUSEHOLDS AS WELL
KURODA: MARKETS HAVE CALMED DOWN A LITTLE RECENTLY
KURODA: MARKET REACTIONS TO START OF NEG. RATE IS CONTINUING
KURODA: NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING IMPACT OF NEGATIVE RATE -
BofAML: "Clients don’t believe the rally, continue to sell US stocks"
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JPMorgani vahendusel värske ülevaade suuremate keskpankade bilanssidest
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Bill Ackmani õudusunenägu jätkub
Valeant gives Q1 EPS guidance $1.18-1.43 ($1.30-1.55 under old method) vs. $2.66 consensus.
FY16 EPS $8.50-9.50 ($9.50-10.50 under old method) vs. $13.48 consensus
aktsia eelturul -16% @ 58 -
Sequoia ka omadega suht pekkis läbi selle.
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USA jaemüük kasvas veebruaris autosid ja kütust arvestamata MoM 0,3% vs oodatud 0,2% aga seda palju nõrgemaks revideeritud jaanuari baasil (0,4% asemel -0,1%). Positiivsemaid uudiseid tõi töötlev tööstus, kui NY FEDi küsitluse kohaselt paranes piirkonna ettevõtete aktiivsusindeks märtsis oluliselt rohkem kui arvati (0,62 punkti vs oodatud -10,5). Uute tellimuste indeks hüppas -11,63 punkti pealt 9,57 punktile.
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Gapping up/down: DSW +8% and PLCE +5% after earnings, MJN +8% after M&A article; CPXX +435% after Phase 3 results; AAPL +1.6% after positive analyst note; TIF -2% after dg
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SZYM +34.7%, (also signs a definitive 5-year global supply agreement w/ total revs of more than $200 w/ Unilever), BORN +23.5%, SKIS +19%, AMPH +17.4%, (light volume), ESI +15.6%, BIND +15.4%, BDE +14.6%, (light volume), GCAP +13.5%, BONT +13%, EGY +10.8%, INGN +8.7%, DSW +7.8%, FDS +5.9%, PERI +5.9%, PFSW +4.9%, PLCE +4.8%, HDS +4.3%, FSYS +4.1%, ARTX +3.5%, PETX +3.3%, CLLS +2.7%, VSLR +1%, EPRS +0.6%, BLCM +0.5%
M&A news: OUTR +13.3% (to explore strategic and financial alternatives; increases quarterly dividend to $0.60/share from $0.30/share), MJN +8.1% (Betaville blog post reporting that MJN has received takeover interest from Danone (DANOY) and others)
Other news: CPXX +434.5% (announces 'positive' results from Phase 3 trial of VYXEOS Liposome for Injection in patients with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia), OREX +35.7% (announces commercialization and distributorship agreement with valeant pharmaceuticals (VRX) for Mysimba for 18 Central and Eastern European countries & Turkey; announces strategic acquisition of all U.S. rights to Contrave, the branded anti-obesity prescription medicine), EXXI +21.4% (makes the interest payment due on its EPL Oil and Gas, Inc. 8.25% Senior Notes and reduces its borrowing base from $500 mln to $377.7 mln), CTIC +16% (provides update regarding the availability of pacritinib to certain patients with myelofibrosis), BPMC +11.5% (announces worldwide collaboration/exclusive license agreement with F. Hoffman-La Roche (RHHBY) to accelerate and expand its development of medicines in the field of cancer immunotherapy), APPY +7.6% (Terminates proposed transactions with Strand Life Sciences), AVEO +5.9% (disclosed SEC settlement update - Based on the progress in the process thus far - could potentially settle with the SEC for a total amount of $4 mln; also reported earnings), BCRX +5.4% (D.E. Shaw & Co discloses 5.1% passive stake), HBIO +4.3% (announces delay in filing Form 10-K), GWPH +2.3% (following 120% move higher Monday), RTK +2% (Rentech announces that GSO Capital Partners LP has agreed to provide an additional short-term liquidity of $6 mln ), AVP +1.6% (To reduce headcount by 2,500 positions as part of 3-year plan), ANTH +1% ( files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
Analyst comments: CONN +2.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at a boutique firm), AAPL +1.6% Morgan Stanley out with a favorable view on iPhone demand in the March qtr)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LINE -33.7%, VRX -17.9%, DCO -7.6%, MNKD -6.5%, (COO Juergen Martens resigns, Michael Castagna named Chief Commercial Officer, effective immediately ), ONTY -5.2%, NAVB -4.3%, TTEC -4%, MOMO -3.5%, FSM -2.6%, CFRX -1.7%, JMBA -1.6%, KANG -1%, LUK -0.9%, (Jefferies reports challenged Q1 results) PWR -0.8%, (appoints COO Earl Austin Jr to succeed Jim O'Neil as CEO effective immediately, reaffirms 2016 growth strategy & outlook), JASO -0.8%
M&A news: PRTY -2.7% (Acquires Festival SA for ~$5 mln)
Select EU financial related names showing weakness: SAN -3.4%, CS -3.1%, DB -2.7%, LYG -2%, BCS -1.4%, ING -1.2%, HSBC -0.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: BBL -7.1%, MT -5%, FCX -4.7%, AKS -3.7%, CLF -3.3%, X -3%, AA -1.4%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: WLL -6%, SDRL -4.9%, PBR -4.6%, CHK -3.9%, BP -2.5%, MRO -2.5%, RIG -1.4%, TOT -1.4%
Other news: IMMU -15.1% (To terminate the Phase 3 PANCRIT-1 trial with yttrium-90-labeled clivatuzumab tetraxetan in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer), ALR -8.2% (will be unable to file its 2015 Form 10-K within the extension period, discloses receipt of a grand jury subpoena from the DOJ), TCON -5.4% ( initiates phase 1B study of TRC105 in patients with lung cancer), NVIV -4.6% (commences an underwritten public offering of common stock for unspecified amount), CNX -3.9% (Moody's downgrades CONSOL (CNX) to B2 with outlook negative and Moody's downgrades Natural Resource Partners (NRP) to B3 with outlook negative), CBPX -3% ( announces 4.5 mln share secondary common stock offering by selling shareholders & 900,000 share repurchase), ZYNE -2.5% (following 150% surge higher Monday), GLOG -1.7% (files for $600 mln mixed securities shelf offering )
Analyst comments: DDD -8% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), BHP -6.3% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie), RIO -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), HIBB -3.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), AZN -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), TIF -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
Briefing.com -
USA oodatust tugevam jaanuarikuu jaemüük oli üks teguritest, mis aitas veebruari keskel aktsiaturul kindlustunnet tõsta. Nüüd tuleb välja, et kogu kasv oli illusioon
BofA: US Retail sales sliced 0.4pp from Q1 GDP tracking, bringing us to 1.7% from 2.1% previously
Atlanta FEDi mudel hindas USA esimese kvartali SKP kasvuks 2,2% enne tänast statistikat -
Mida Ackman müüma peab, et margin calli ei saaks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-15/when-ackman-gets-valeant-margin-call-today-what-he-will-sell -
USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks jäi oodatud punktise kasvu asemel püsima 58 punkti peale märtsis
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USA ettevõtete varud kasvasid jaanuaris 0,1% vs prognoositud 0,0% ning kui arvestada, et müük korrigeeriti alla, tõstab see varude ja müügi suhte kõrgeimale tasemele alates 2009.a.
