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Börsipäev 4. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuigi kvartal algas nii Aasia kui ka Euroopa börsidel kasumivõtuga, jätkatakse Ühendriikide aktsiaturgudel pidurdamatus hoos, trotsides isegi nafta -4,2% langust uudise tõttu, et Saudi Araabia kavatseb naftatoodangut külmutada vaid juhul, kui Iraan kokkuleppega liitub. Stoxx 600 lõpetas reedel -1,3% madalamal, S&P 500 aga pööras -0,8% kaotuse lõpuks 0,6% võiduks.



    Sentimenti USA börsidel aitas toetada teadmine, et uute töökohtade loomine jätkus märtsis üsna stabiilses tempos. Kokku loodi väljaspool põllumajandussektorit 215 tuhat uut töökohta, mida oli kümne tuhande võrra rohkem võrreldes analüütikute ootusega. Töötuse määr kerkis 0,1pp võrra 5,0% peale (oodati 4,9%), kuid see oli tingitud tööjõus osalemise määra paranemisest 0,1pp võrra 63,0%le, mis on kõrgeim tase viimase kahe aasta jooksul. Tõenäoliselt hoiab see tagasi ka palgakasvu, mis püsis märtsis 2,3% peal võrreldes mullu sama ajaga.

    Häid uudiseid pakkus ka USA töötlev tööstus, mille kohta on positiivseid signaale viimastel nädalatel regionaalsed küsitlused juba saatnud. Üleriigilise ISM aktiivsusindeksi 2,3punktiline tõus 51,8 punktile osutus aga arvatust isegi tugevamaks (prognoositi 51,0). Uute tellimuste indeks hüppas 6,8 punkti 58,3 punktile, peegeldades tõenäoliselt eelnevatel kuudel tagasi hoitud nõudlust. USA ehituskulutused aga osutusid veebruaris -0,5% võrra tagasihoidlikumaks võrreldes jaanuariga (oodati 0,1% kasvu), mida aitas kompenseerida jaanuari kasvu positiivne revideerimine (1,5% asemel 2,1%).

    Hongkongi ja Hiina börsid olid täna pühade tõttu suletud, kuid mujal Aasias on uus nädal alanud valdavalt positiivsete liikumistega. Nafta (WTI) jätkas öösel langust, odavnedes -1,2% 36,36 dollarile barreli eest pärast Iraani naftaministri pühapäevast kommentaari, et nemad ei kavatse nafta tootmist piirata, seades omakorda ohtu kokkuleppe saavutamise OPECi riikide ja teiste tootjate vahel 17. aprillil Dohas.

    Majandusuudiste osas jääb tänane päev võrdlemisi vaikseks, kui mainimist väärib vaid USA veebruarikuu tehaste tellimuste muutus.

    10.00 Hispaania töötute arvu muutus (märts)
    12.00 Eurotsooni tootjahinnaindeks ja töötuse määr (veebruar)
    16.30 USA FEDi Rosengren esineb kõnega
    17.00 USA tehaste tellimused (veebruar)
  • Hispaania töötute arv kahanes märtsis oodatud 50 tuhande asemel 58,2 tuhande võrra, mida oli üsna sarnases järgus nagu mullu samal ajal
  • Institutsionaalsed investorid on 29. märtsil lõppenud nädalal esimest korda ligi kahe kuu jooksul naftas taas veidi lühikesi positsioone suurendanud
  • Eurotsooni töötuse määr langes kõrgemaks revideeritud jaanuari taseme pealt 0,1pp võrra 10,3% peale
  • Eurotsooni tootjahinnaindeksi langus ei näita, et kusagil paistaks oht tarbijakorvi inflatsiooni kiirenemiseks, pigem vastupidi
  • Kui aasta alguse languse ajal jäi Morgan Stanley aktsiaturgude suhtes optimistlikuks, siis pärast tõusu ollakse nüüd riskikartlikumad

    As the market continues to rise, we are getting more negative, not more positive. The underlying fundamentals, in our view, were not as negative in early February as price action indicated. Today, we don’t think fundamentals are as positive as price action is indicating. Our base case is for earnings to grow around 4% this year.
    So what is implied by today’s market price? Putting it all together, we forecast 4% earnings growth per year
    from now through Q1 of 2018. We apply a 16x multiple, 12 months from now, on earnings 13-24 months from
    now. This yields a 12-month forward S&P500 price target of 2050 . With the market trading slightly above that
    now, we conclude it is embedding a better earnings path or higher multiples. Given that our top-down view of
    EPS is actually above the bottom-up consensus for this year, it appears that the market rally has been more
    about the multiple going up than a genuine belief in an earnings recovery.
    Absent a further improvement to our
    already above-consensus view of earnings, we see risk-reward as skewed to the downside.
  • Turg võib jääda pikaks ajaks üleostetud taseme lähedale, aga ka JPM argumenteerib, et praegu pole hea aeg ostmiseks

    *Technicals have recently touched overbought territory, in contrast to Feb., when market was clearly oversold; S&P 500 RSI is at 70, a useful sell signal, JPMorgan equity strategists including Mislav Matejka and Emmanuel Cau write in note.
    * Sentiment has moved away from being worried, back into optimistic territory; Bull-Bear index has turned outright positive
    * VIX touched 13.1, a multi-month low, “suggesting that a degree of complacency is creeping in again”
    * 1Q reporting season results likely to be weak again; EPS revisions are showing an inflection higher, but not forward- looking signal; U.S. profit margins are deteriorating
    * “This is not the stage of the U.S. cycle when one should be buying stocks with a 6- to 12-month time horizon” JPM
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    ANIP +8.2%, (raises FY16 guidance) RKUS +3.9%

    M&A news: VA +40% (to be acquired by Alaska Air Group (ALK) for $57.00/share ), LEI +2.6% (enters into a Convertible Note Purchase Agreement; believes there are M&A opportunities available)

    Select Bio/Pharma related names showing strength with multiple positive data pts released with in the space: GNCA +3%, CPXX +2.3%, AZN +1.9%, TEVA +1.3%

    Other news: ZFGN +15.7% (presents new data from the Phase 3 bestPWS Study; Beloranib demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in fat mass), FLXN +14.1% (will present results from 2 clinical trials showing its Zilretta provided sustained and significant pain relief in patients with moderate to severe OA knee pain), XBIT +12.8% (EMA Grants accelerated assessment of Marketing Authorization Application for Xilonix), EW +12.3% (reports its PARTNER II Trial met primary endpoint), TXMD +11.8% (presents detailed results from Phase 3 Rejoice Trial; showed statistically significant improvements in dyspareunia and vaginal dryness; also initiated with a Buy at Goldman), SNY +4.4% (sFT details that Sanofi (SNY) plans to introduce mass vaccination program), TSLA +4.2% (Elon Musk says Model 3 pre-orders reach 276,000), BLRX +4.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas), ESLT +3.2% (announced that its subsidiary, CYBERBIT, was awarded contracts to supply intelligence and cyber analysis and research systems for a country in Asia-Pacific), INO +2.7% (cont strength), NVO +2.3% (positive clinical studies reported), ACAD +2.2% (Baker Bros raise active stake to 21.8%), ORAN +1.7% (slightly rebounding after merger talks with Bouygues ended on Friday), HA +1.6% (VA peer), SHPG +1.6% (positive topline results from a four-week Phase 3 study, SHP465-305), RYAAY +1.3% (reports March traffic grew by 28% YoY)

    Analyst comments: EXEL +4.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel), JCP +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast), ASML +1.6% (target raised to $105 at RBC Capital Mkts), ESRX +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen), AAPL +0.8% (target raised to $150 from $140 at Credit Suisse; Added to US Focus List)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    N/A.

    M&A news: ALK -4.3% (Virgin America to be acquired by Alaska Air Group (ALK) for $57.00/share cash), BHI -2.2% (Antitrust members are leaning against approval of Halliburton (HAL) / BHI M&A deal, according to NY Post)

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
    HMY -3.8%, GFI -2%, KGC -1.4%, GOLD -1%, ABX -0.5%, GDX -0.5%


    Other news: SUNE -31.4% (preparing to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to the WSJ), IRMD -17.3% (notified by the FDA that its 510k application for the MRidium 3860+ MRI compatible IV infusion pump was denied with a finding of non-substantial equivalence; co intends to appeal), SWHC -6.6% (gun registration data released; also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen), JMEI -3.7% (Co-CFOs resign), GLBL -1.7% (receives non-compliance letter from NASDAQ for untimely filing of its 10-K), TM -1.5% (still checking)

    Analyst comments:
    MOS -2.2% (downgraded to Sector Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), GPC -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT), SJM -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), PX -0.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), GE -0.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg), INTC -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas)

    Briefing.com

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