Börsipäev 8. aprill
Log in or create an account to leave a comment
-
Avanemisest alates alustas S&P 500 sööstu allapoole, andes neljapäeval ära kogu eelneva päeva tõusu ning rohkemgi (kaotust kogunes-1,2%). Viimased kaks kuud domineerinud rahulikum sentiment on muutunud selgelt närvilisemaks, tekitades küsimuse, kas ees ootab järjekordne suurem langus? Ehkki juhtivindikaatorid viitavad makromajanduse stabiliseerumisele ning kohati isegi ärikliima väikesele paranemisele märtsis, peegeldab USA aktsiaturgude valuatsioon juba investorite võrdlemisi kõrgeid ootusi, mis jätab ukse avatuks pettumusele, eriti ajal, kui ettevõtete tulemuste hooaeg tõotab tulla viimaste aastate üks nõrgemaid.
Teine oluline aspekt on rahapoliitika ning kuivõrd kindlalt tunnevad turuosalised selle efektiivsuses. Päevakorda on teema uuesti kerkinud seoses jeeni vahetuskursi tõusuga. Odav jeen on Jaapani majandusliku taastumise üks peamisi nurgakivisid, aga kui Jaapani valuuta suudab dollari suhtes paari kuuga tugevneda ligikaudu 10% ning seda vaatamata QQE programmile ja negatiivseks muudetud intressimäärale, lööb usk kõikuma nii keskpankade rollis kui ka riigi majanduslikus taastumises. Jaapani valitsuse esindaja sõnul võidakse jeeni stabiliseerimiseks astuda vajalikke samme, kuid hetkel eelistatakse enne sekkumist veel oodata.
Majandusnäitajad jäid eile pigem tagaplaanile. Hispaania tööstustoodang valmistas pettumuse, kahanedes veebruaris -0,2% võrreldes jaanuariga (oodati 0,4% kasvu), mil see alanes -0,1%. Hispaania tööstustoodangu kasv on sel aastal aeglustunud ja kuigi ka uute tellimuste pealevool on mõnevõrra järele andnud, jääb nende üldine tase siiski veel piisavalt kõrgeks, et mitte karta stagnatsiooni. Ühendriikides alanesid esmased töötu abiraha taotlused läinud nädalal üheksa tuhande võrra 267 tuhandele (oodati 270 tuhat), näidates et soodsad trendid sealsel tööturul on jätkumas ilma suuremate muutusteta.
Nädala viimane tööpäeva saab olema majandusuudiste osas üsna vaikne. Euroopas on laual Saksamaa veebruari kaubavahetuse statistika ning oma tööstustoodangu numbrid avaldavad Prantsusmaa ja Suurbritannia.
09.00 Saksamaa kaubandusstatistika (veebruar)
09.00 Soome tööstustoodang (veebruar)
09.45 Prantsusmaa tööstustoodang (veebruar)
11.30 Suurbritannia tööstustoodang (veebruar)
15.30 USA FEDi Dudley esineb kõnega
15.30 Kanada tööturu raport (märts)
17.00 USA hulgimüügi varud (veebruar)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete naftapuurtornide arv (8. aprill) -
Saksamaa import ja eksport olid veebruaris oodatust tugevamad
German Exports (MoM) SA Feb: 1.30% (est 0.5%, prev -0.6%)
German Imports (MoM) SA Feb: 0.40% (est -0.3%, prev 1.3%) -
Doug Ramsey ühest väiksemast analüüsimajast tõmbab huvitava paralleeli
In the 1999 movie, The Sixth Sense, Bruce Willis plays a child psychologist who’s (spoiler alert!) actually dead but doesn’t realize it. Perhaps the last two months are the ephemeral movements of a cyclical bull market that’s already dead, but doesn’t yet grasp the concept. Large Cap valuations have moved back toward year-ago highs, the profit recession has deepened, more Fed tightening looks like a good second-quarter bet, and the market has again begun to fracture internally after a brief respite in which everything went up (from February 11th to March 11th).
Unfortunately, picking the top of a bear market rally is probably a more dangerous endeavor than identifying a major cyclical top. At least in the latter, one can generally expect to see several months of deterioration in breadth and leadership beforehand. Bear market rallies, though, are usually so brief that such deterioration is hard to detect—if it even occurs. -
Prantsusmaa tööstsutoodang kahanes veebruaris MoM -1,0% (jaanuari kasv korrigeeriti 1,3% pealt 1,0%le), mis jäi alla analüütikute -0,4% ootusele. Ka töötlevas tööstuses oli pilt arvatust nõrgem, kui sealne toodang kahanes MoM -0,9% ehk prognoositust kolm korda rohkem ning seda lisaks allapoole revideeritud jaanuari moM kasvu pealt (0,8% asemel 0,4%). Mullusega võrreldes aeglustus töötleva tööstuse toodangu kasv 2,4% pealt 1,6% peale ning PMI küsitlus (kollane joon) ei anna põhjust lootusrikkaks jääda ka märtsi osas.
-
Prantsusmaa valitsuse eelarve puudujääk veebruari seisuga 25,582 miljardit eurot.....2,14 miljardit eurot suurem kui mullu samal ajal
-
Suurbritannia tööstustoodang kaahanes veebruaris MoM -0,3% vs oodatud +0,1%. Seejuures kahanes töötleva tööstuse toodang -1,1% võrreldes jaanuariga, osutudes oluliselt nõrgemaks võrreldes analüütikute -0,2% ootusega. Mulluse baasil süvenes langus -1,8%ni
-
Euroopa aktsiatest voolas raha üheksandat nädalat välja
* European equities see $0.7b in net outflows in week to April 6, marking an 9th straight week of redemptions, the longest streak since May 2013, BofAML strategists write in note, citing EPFR Global data.
* U.S. equities see $5.4b inflows, with inflows in 4 of past 5 weeks
* EM equities see $0.6b outflows, 2 straight weeks of outflows
* Japanese equities see $1.0b outflows, 4 straight weeks of outflows, longest outflow streak since Sept. 2012
* IG bond funds see $4b inflows, 5 straight weeks of inflows
* HY bond funds see $1.2b inflows, inflows in 6 of past 7 weeks
* EM debt funds see $2b inflows, largest weekly inflows since June 2014, 7 straight weeks of inflows -
Madal baas peaks ju ükskord hakkama ettevõtete kasumite kasvu toetama....2017 saab olema see aasta
-
räpsvõlakirjade tulususte kiire tõus jaanuaris keeras Citi turutsükli kellaosuti faasi, mis viitab pullituru lõpule. Alates veebruarist on riskipreemiad alla tulnud ning seetõttu vähenenud ka majandussurutise oht, aga sellest hoolimata ei viita osuti, et pidu võiks veel kaua aega edasi kesta
-
Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance: DLTH +10%
M&A news: AFOP +19.7% (Alliance Fiber Optic to be acquired by Corning (GLW) for $18.50 per share; Corning expects the acquisition to be accretive to its earnings per share during the first year; AFOP issues Q1 rev guidance), NXPI +2.4% (attributed to report that company might sell standard products unit), YHOO +1.2% (Re Code reports that Yahoo (YHOO) has extended deadline for bidders 1 week to April 18)
Select EU financial related names showing strength: DB +3.6%, CS +3.1%, SAN +3%, BCS +2.5%, ING +1.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: FCX +2.8%, RIO +2.7%, RIO +2.7%, BBL +2.4%, BHP +2%, AA +1.8%
Select oil/gas related names showing early strength: OAS +7.4%, WLL +4.6%, SDRL +4.2%, CHK +3.3%, MRO +2.7%, RIG +2.3%, RIG +2.3%, RDS.A +2.2%, E +2%, BP +2%, TOT +1.8%, BHI +1.4%
Other news: AVXL +16.5% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for its 1-3-propan-1-one compound for the treatment of frontotemporal dementia), DEPO +11% (Starboard discloses 9.8% active stake, believes that meaningful change is required to ensure DepoMed is acting in the best interest of all shareholders), ICPT +6.1% (confirms an FDA Advisory Committee unanimously recommended accelerated approval of Ocaliva for the treatment of PBC), SUNE +5.5% (continued strength, short-covering), ABMD +4.5% (receives FDA Pre-Market Approval for its heart pumps to provide treatment of ongoing cardiogenic shock), MRCY +1.8% (prices 4.5 mln shares of its common stock at $19.25 per share), CNAT +1.5% (in sympathy to ICPT), SCTY +0.9% (closes second financing within its renewable energy tax equity program), .
Analyst comments: N/A
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RT -14.2%, SEAC -10.1%, GPS -7%, (March comps) PSMT -4.2%, RECN -4.2%, ANGO -2.3%, WDFC -1%
Other news: VKTX -24.9% (following yesterday's 36% gain), NBIO -8.5% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for pritumumab for the treatment of pancreatic cancer), PSLV -4.2% (announces the launch of a follow-on offering of transferable, redeemable units of the trust), CME -2.5% (hearing attributed to a block trade), MOMO -1.7% (Alibaba confirms 27.7% active stake)
Analyst comments: AKS -2.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), X -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), VIAB -0.7% (initiated with an Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts)
Briefing.com -
FOMC hääletav liige Bill Dudley saadab futuurid uutele tippudele:
* Caution is called for because of Fed’s limited ability to reduce policy rate, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley says.
* Dudley comments in text of speech in Bridgeport, Conn.
* “Although the downside risks have diminished since earlier in the year, I still judge the balance of risks to my
inflation and growth outlooks to be tilted slightly to the downside”
* Fed can use forward guidance, balance-sheet policies to provide more accommodation if warranted
* While recent data show “some firming” of inflation expectations, “there is still cause for concern” because
many measures still quite low
* “There is significant uncertainty about economic growth prospects abroad and how this will affect the U.S. economic outlook”
* Despite recent financial-market volatility and economic data, “recent developments have not led me to make a fundamental change in my outlook for the U.S. economy”
* Expects real GDP growth of about 2% in 2016, above potential; jobless rate likely to drop to around 4.75%
* Several sectors showing signs of softness, including consumer spending, home sales, business investment
* Labor market has remained healthy, but long-term unemployment still higher than prior cyclical peak in 2003
* “Measures of aggregate wage growth have remained quite subdued, which suggests there is still some slack in the labor market”
