Börsipäev 21. aprill
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S&P 500 indeks andis viimasel tunnil ära sisuliselt kogu päeva plussi (sulgudes siiski 0,1% kõrgemal), kuid üleostetud sentimenti, ettevõtete kahanevaid kasumeid ja kõrgeid valuatsioone trotsides hoitakse järjepidevalt kinni kursist jõuda tagasi 2015.a maikuu tippu, millest jääb lahutama kõigest 28,4 punkti ehk 1,4%. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 finants- ja materjalitööstuse eestvedamisel 0,4% kõrgemal.
Nafta on jätkamas rallit, kaubeldes reedese sulgumishinnaga võrreldes 9,5% kõrgemal 44,2 dollaril (WTI), kui eile toetasid hinda info, et Iraagi esindajate sõnul võivad naftatootjad mahtude kasvu külmutamist uuesti arutada Venemaal juba mais ning samal ajal näitas USA valitsuse statistika, et riigi naftatoodang kahanes läinud nädalal 8,95 miljoni barrelini päevas (madalaim alates 2014.a oktoobrist).
Erinevalt uute majade ehitusest, pakkus USA kinnisvaraturu kohta eile veidi julgustavamaid märke olemasolevate majade märtsi müük, mis kerkis veebruari baasil annualiseeritult 5,1% 5,33 miljonini ning ületas sellega analüütikute prognoositud 5,28 miljonit. Olemasolevate majade varu on jätkuvalt ajalooliselt väga madal (1,98 miljonit), tänu millele kerkis mediaanhind aastaga 5,7% 222,7 tuhandele dollarile.
Tänase börsipäeva raskuskese langeb Euroopa Keskpangale, kellel tõenäoliselt suuri uudiseid pole, arvestades seda, et eelmisel istungil välja kuulutatud laenuprogrammid pole veel käima lükatudki. Küll aga võivad selguda täpsemad detailid, milliste ettevõtete võlakirju kavatsetakse osta ning Mario Draghi pressikonverentsil võidakse uuesti lõkkele puhuda sellised teemad nagu helikopteriraha ning Saksamaa vastuseis lõdvale rahapoliitikale. Regulaarse istungi peab ka Rootsi keskpanga nõukogu, kes peaks jätma intressimäära -0,5% peale.
Majandusnäitajatest pälvivad suurimat tähelepanu USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused ning Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse aprillikuu aktiivsusindeks. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused enne USA turgude avanemist General Motors, Johnson Controls, Ericsson, Novartis, Verizon ning järelkauplemise ajal Alphabet, Microsoft, Schlumberger, Starbux, Visa.
09.45 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse kindlustunde indeks (aprill)
10.30 Rootsi keskpanga intressimäära otsus
11.30 Suurbritannia jaemüük (märts)
14.45 Euroopa Keskpanga intressimäära otsus
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
15.30 Mario Draghi pressikonverents
15.30 USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (aprill)
17.00 USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks (märts)
17.00 Eurotsooni tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (aprill) -
David Rosenberg mõlgutab mõtteid turgude valuatsioonist....
Well, this huge 15% rally off the lows signals something more than just a recession being priced out of the system.
With the S&P 500 now trading at a 18.4x trailing price-to-earnings multiple (historical average is 15.8x) and on forward earnings, a 16.7x multiple, it’s as though we have a stock market pricing in a “V”-shaped earnings boom once this profits recession runs its course, as many expect next quarter.
Forward multiples are the key, and while a moving target since they are sensitive to shifts in bottom-up earnings-per-share forecasts by the analysts, the markets by their nature are forward-looking animals. Nobody ever got wealthy by gazing through the rear-view mirror.
The challenge here is that the average forward price-to-earnings multiple since the early 1990s is 15.3x. Since the early 1980s, it has averaged 14.4x, and stripping out the dotcom insanity of the late 1990s, that average is 13.4x. Outside of that bubble era in Tech stocks, there have only been a handful of times when the forward price-to-earnings multiple was as high as it is today.
I’m not saying it’s a bubble, but the multiple is pressing against a one standard-deviation event, which means it is uber-expensive. Either that, or Mr. Market sees an earnings bounce ahead that has somehow escaped the models of the typical Wall Street equity analyst…
It makes sense to continue to play the ranges, as tempting as it is to chase this latest leg of the market recovery — the current valuation level has just about as much good news priced in as was the case in mid-February when all the bad news was being discounted and all one needed to be was agnostic to start chipping away. -
Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks hüppas aprillis kahe punkti jagu 104 punktile (oodati 101 punkti)
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Rootsi keskpank jättis intressimäära ootuspäraselt -0,5% peale aga suurendab võlakirjade ostusid ehk 2016.a lõpuks kokku 245 miljardi kroonini
SWEDEN'S RIKSBANK LEAVES KEY RATE UNCHANGED AT MINUS 0.500%
RIKSBANK PLANS TO BUY ADDITIONAL SK45 BLN OF GOVT BONDS
RIKSBANK ALSO PREPARED TO INTERVENE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE MKT
RIKSBANK SAYS ASSET BUYS COULD BE EXTENDED
RIKSBANK ASSET BUYS WILL CUT RISK OF KRONA APPRECIATION
RIKSBANK PREPARED TO BE MORE EXPANSIONARY EVEN BETWEEN MEETINGS
RIKSBANK STILL SCOPE TO CUT REPO RATE FURTHER
RIKSBANK SEES CPI AT +1.0% IN 2016 VS +0.7% IN FEB.
RIKSBANK SEES CPI AT +1.9% IN 2017 VS +2.1% IN FEB.
RIKSBANK SEES SWEDEN 2016 GDP +3.7% VS +3.5% IN FEB.
RIKSBANK SEES SWEDEN 2017 GDP +2.7% VS +2.8% IN FEB.
RIKSBANK SEES 2017 AVG REPO RATE -0.4% VS -0.4% IN FEB. -
Suurbritannia jaemüük (autosid ja kütust arvestamata) osutus märtsis arvatust nõrgemaks, kahanedes teist kuud järjest MoM oodatud -0,3% asemel -1,6%, mis jättis kasvu aastatagusega võrreldes 1,8% peale.
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Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressimäärad samadele tasemetele, on tõstnud varade ostuprogrammi mahu 80 miljardi euroni kuus
Further information on the implementation aspects of the corporate sector purchase programme will be released after the press conference on the ECB’s website. -
USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused kahanesid kuue tuhande võrra, Philadelphia töötleva tööstuse aktiivsus erinevalt NY omast arvatust nõrgem
Initial Jobless Claims 247K vs 265K Expected
Philly Fed April Mftg Index, (1.6) vs. 8.9 expected -
Väikesed paranemise märgid Caterpillari masinate müügitrendis, kui märtsis aeglustus langus -21% pealt -13% peale
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NOW +12.1%, PLXS +8.9%, (also CEO Dean Foate to retire at end of fiscal 16; COO Todd Kelsey will become CEO on October 2 ), CTXS +8.2%, IMAX +5.3%, TSCO +4.9%, FFIV +4%, YUM +3.8%, GM +3.8%, BAS +3.5%, UA +3.5%, PTC +3%, SWK +3%, DHI +2.8%, UNP +2.5%, AXP +2.4%, LUV +2.4%, NEM +2.3%, PKG +2.2%, CX +2.1%, GHL +1.9%, BIIB +1.4%, SHW +1.3%, BANC +0.7%, JCI +0.7%, STLD +0.5%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AG +7.3%, IAG +6.5%, ABX +4.9%, HMY +4.7%, SLW +4.3%, SLV +4.3%, GFI +4.3%, GG +3.9%, FCX +3.6%, AU +2.8%, GOLD +1.9%, GLD +1.8%
Other news: CEQP +20.2% ( announce ~$2 bln JV w/ Con Ed (ED) named Stagecoach Gas Services; Con Edison (ED) will purchase a 50% equity interest in this entity for ~$975 mln), ARTX +11.7% (receives $40 mln indefinite delivery indefinite quantity award for its MILO Range Training Systems simulator products), SUNE +6.8% (cont volatility in pre-mkt action), GWPH +2.1% (granted orphan designation by the FDA for its cannabidiol for the treatment of tuberous sclerosis complex), NKE +1% (in sympathy with UA (earnings release)), PBR +1% (reports March production)
Analyst comments: CMA +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TBI -28%, NGVC -17.8%, ( Natural Grocers reports prelim Q2 results below consensus and lowers 2016 guidance), ERIC -11.2%, LVS -6.7%, MLNX -6.6%, URI -5.2%, MAT -5%, TCBI -4.1%, WERN -3.4%, ADS -3.2%, UAL -2.8%, TRV -2.6%, VZ -2.2%, JAKK -2.2%, QCOM -2.1%, (also igns 3G/4G Chinese patent license agreement with Hisense, resolves arbitration dispute over licensing terms), LAZ -1.7%, PII -1.3%, LAD -1.3%, KMI -1.1%, CBI -1%, CFG -1%, ALK -0.7%, MCRI -0.6%
Other news: TRXC -65% (FDA determines that the SurgiBot System does not meet the criteria for substantial equivalence ), ICD -19.6% (upsizes offering by 3 mln shares and prices 11 mln shares of common stock at $3.50 per share), REI -6.2% (commences common stock offering), CBAY -2.2% (Abingworth discloses 6.8% passive stake), BUD -2.2% (related to SABMiller reporting FY15/16 trading statement), DEO -1.9% (may be related to peer Pernod-Ricard earnings release), MGM -1.6% (following LVS results), WYNN -1.4% (in symp with LVS)
Analyst comments: FCFS -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney), AFL -0.8% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)
Briefing.com -
Alphabet prelim Q1 $7.50 vs $7.96 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.26 bln vs $20.38 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
GOOG -7,2% -
Microsoft prelim Q3 $0.62 vs $0.64 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.08 bln vs $22.11 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
MSFT -3,2%, @54
