Börsipäev 22. aprill
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USA aktsiaturu indeksite jaoks lõppes neljapäev kahe nädala suurima kukkumisega ja ehkki see võib esmapilgul tunduda pisut dramaatilisena, piirdus S&P 500 indeksi kaotus siiski vaid -0,5%ga. Viimaste kuude tugevat tõusu arvestades on hingetõmme tervitatav, eriti kuna siiani raporteerinud ettevõtted pole andnud analüütikutele väga põhjust ootuste positiivseks revideerimiseks. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 pärast kolmepäevast tõusu sessiooni -0,3% punases.
Aasias liikusid aktsiaturud samuti valdavalt madalamale, va Jaapanis, kus Nikkei suutis päeva teises pooles ronida protsendisest miinusest 0,7% plussi tänu jeeni järsule nõrgenemisele. Tuleval nädalal tuleb Jaapani keskpanga nõukogu uuesti kokku ning spekulatsioonide kohaselt kavatseb keskpank toetada kommertspankade laenutegevust, pakkudes neile negatiivse intressimääraga laenusid.
Üheks peamiseks mureallikaks on Jaapani keskpanga jaoks jeeni tugevnemine, mis võib potentsiaalselt lükata edasi inflatsiooni saavutamist ning aeglustuda majandustegevust. Signaale ebakindlamast majanduskeskkonnast saadab töötlev tööstus, kus küsitluse järgi tõi aprill kaasa aktiivsuse languse kiirenemisele. PMI indeks alanes 49,1 punktilt 48,0 punktile (madalaim tase alates 2013.a jaanuarist, oodati 49,5) ja kuigi maavärinad Kyushu piirkonnas avaldasid mõju, võis samuti näha ka eksporditellimuste jõulisemat vähenemist.
Erasektori aktiivsuse aprillikuu küsitlused jäävad täna fookusesse ka Euroopas ning Ühendriikides. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma majandustulemused teiste seas American Airlines, Autonation, Caterpillar, General Electric, Honeywell, Kimberly-Clark, McDonald’s.
10.00 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori PMI (aprill)
10.30 Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (aprill)
11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse ja teenindussektori PMI (aprill)
11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodangu müük ning tellimused (veebruar)
12.00 Itaalia jaemüük (veebruar)
15.30 Kanada jaemüük (veebruar)
15.30 Kanada inflatsioon (märts)
16.45 USA Markiti koostatud töötleva tööstuse PMI (aprill)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete nafta puurtornide arv (22. aprill) -
eilse seisuga on 24% S&P 500 firmadest oma Q1 tulemused avaldanud ning keskmiselt 0,2% YoY müügitulu kasvu juures on jäänud aktsiakasum mullu sama ajaga võrreldes -6,8% väiksemaks
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Kellel on soovi, siis DB on avaldanud põhjaliku analüüsi keskpankade rahapoliitilisest võimekusest, sh ka helikopterirahast. link
We argue that "helicopter money" could be far more impactful than QE or fiscal policy, subject to the conversion of private and public liabilities into a perpetuity and central bank tolerance for infinite losses.
We conclude that monetary financing may be more likely than commonly assumed. With Japan fast approaching the limits of its existing reflation project, it is a canary in the coalmine for the next global policy innovation. -
Prantsusmaa erasektori aktiivsuses toimus aprillis üsna marginaalne muutus, kui PMI kerkis 0,5 punkti 50,5 punktile (oodati 50,2). Seejuures langes töötleva tööstuse PMI -1,3 punkti 48,3 punktile (oodati 49,9) ning teenindussektori PMI kerkis 0,9 punkti 50,8 punktile (oodati 50,1).
Via Markit: Service providers noted a rise in incoming new work (the fastest in five months), whereas manufacturers
reported the most marked drop in new orders since February 2015 (with both domestic and export sales showing weakness). -
Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse aktiivsus paranes aprillis 1,2 punkti 51,9 punktile (oodati 51,0), samal ajal aga kahanes teenindussektori PMI 0,5 punkti 54,6 punktile (oodati 55,1), mis jättis kogu eraksektori aktiivsuse aprillis madalamaks kui märtsis (53,8 vs 54,0 ning prognoositud 54,2).
Markit: The German private sector economy is continuing its unspectacular expansionary trend at the beginning of
the second quarter. Although growth remained uninspiring and the headline PMI dropped to a ninemonth low, the index was down only fractionally since March and is still indicative of modest growth. -
Kogu eurotsooni erasektori aktiivsust kajastav indeks langes aprilli esialgsetel andmetel 0,1 punkti 53,0 punktile, mis viitab teise kvartali alguses aeglase majanduskasvu jätkumisele
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Euroopa aktsiaturud on veebruari põhjast taastunud 15% aga fondides on investorid olnud 11 nädalat järjest müügipoolel
Global equities saw $7.3b in outflows in the week to April 20, the biggest turn away from stocks in 9 weeks, BofAML strategists write in note, citing EPFR Global data.
* European equities see $2.1b outflows, 11th straight week of outflows, longest streak since May 2010
* U.S. equities see $4.2b outflows, most in 9 weeks
* Japan equities see $2.6b outflows, biggest outflows since Nov. 14, longest streak since Feb. 2012
* EM equities see $0.3b inflows, first inflows in 4 weeks
* IG bond funds see $2.9b inflows, 7th straight week of inflows
* HY bond funds see $0.8b inflows, inflows in 8 of past 9 weeks
* Government/treasury funds see $0.9b outflows, 9th straight week of outflows
* EM debt funds see $1.3b inflows, 9th straight week of inflows -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LAKE -17.7%, SAM -10%, BGG -6.7%, (light volume), NSU -5.8%, (ticking lower), GOOG -5.4%, V -4.7%, MSFT -4.4%, CAT -4%, SBUX -4%, AN -4.3%, TRN -1.5%, KMB -1.3%, SLB -1.2%, HA -1.1%, (light volume), GE -1.1%, ETFC -0.6%, (light volume).
Auto supplier/service related names are seeing continued weakness with AutoNation earnings weighing on the group today: ABG -1.9%, KMX -1.2%, PAG -1.1%, GPI -1.0% .
Other news: EYES -6.9% (following amended S-1 filing; reports earnings next week), PRGO -5.2% (Perrigo responds to reports concerning its Chairman and CEO Joseph C. Papa but it is company policy not to comment on speculation; WSJ reported that Valeant Pharma looking to name Perrigo Chairman and CEO), JOY -2.6% / DE -1% (following CAT earnings/guidance), BREW -2.4% (light volume following SAM earnings/guidance), MA -1.9% (Visa sympathy), TRXC -1.3% (after yesterday's 50% decline on SurgiBot System FDA determination), FB -1.3% (lower following disappointing MSFT/GOOG earnings), BIDU -1.3% (GOOG sympathy), RIG -1.2% (provides update on fleet), SA -0.5% (Seabridge Gold announces a cross-border public offering of common shares and a concurrent C$10.8 mln bought deal flow-through equity financing at a price of C$24.08/share), CEQP -0.4% (following 40%+ move higher yesterday), SNE -0.2% (Sony to postpone the release of its consolidated results forecast for the Fiscal Year ending March 31, 2017 due to the impact of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes).
Analyst comments: NUE -1% (downgraded to Sell from Outperform at Credit Agricole ), URI -1% (modestly pulling back from yesterday's earnings related strength; downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merril), AXP -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, also Visa sympathy), JWN -0.5% (light volume, downgraded to Sell from Hold at Evercore ISI), UAL -0.2% ( downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee CRT).
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AMD +20.2%, (also upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Craig Hallum), SKX +8.9%, UIS +5.7%, (light volume), HBI +5.4%, PACB +5.1%, NSC +4.7% (also was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), PFPT +4.3%, MXIM +4.2%, (light volume), SWN +3.6%, MCD +2.6%, SYF +1.2%
Select silver related stocks/ETF trading higher: PAAS +2.2%, SLV +0.9%, SLW +0.5%.
Other news: ONTX +18% (announces the publication of a study describing the novel RAS-targeted mechanism of action for rigosertib), NGL +11.7% (light volume, NGL Energy Partners announces $200 mln private placement of 10.75% Class A Convertible Preferred Units, reduces quarterly distribution, updates FY16 guidance, details recent sales of interests in TransMontaigne ; upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), ALIM +11.4% (continued strength following yesterday's intraday spike), SHLD +8.8% (Sears Holdings to close stores to accelerate its transformation and its return to profitability), CTMX +7.8% (CytomX Therapeutics enters into a collaboration to co-develop and co-commercialize Probody Drug Conjugates against CD71 w/ AbbVie), CXRX +7.5% (following 25% surge higher into the close -- confirmed after hours that it has formed special committee to consider various strategic alternatives), XON +5.5% (closed yesterday at multi-month lows - down 20%+; provided update this morning regarding recent trading activity in its common stock, states a 'false & misleading' report was published on Seeking Alpha), SRPT +5.1% (light volume - modestly rebounding), VRX +4.9% (Valeant Pharma looking to name Perrigo Chairman and CEO Joseph Papa as its next CEO to replace J. Michael Pearson, according to the WSJ), EBIO +4.5% (following 20% move higher yesterday), CHK +1.3% (Casillas Petroleum Resource Partners closed on the purchase of certain oil and gas assets owned by Chesapeake Energy Corporation in the SCOOP play for a price of $106 million), FCX +1.3% (Black Stone Mineral to acquire an oil and gas mineral asset package from Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas for $102 mln), ERIC +1% (after yesterday's 15% earnings related stock decline), CHL +1% (light volume, continued strength), DB +0.7% (not seeing anything specific).
Briefing.com -
Markiti kohaselt on USA töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse kasv edasi aeglustunud aprillis
US MFG PMI 50.8, Exp. 52.0, Last 51.5, Lowest since September 2009
April data pointed to a renewed slowdown in new business growth, with the latest expansion the least
marked so far in 2016. Some survey respondents suggested that uncertainty in relation to the
economic outlook and political climate had weighed on client spending in April. Moreover, export sales
continued to act as a drag on overall new business volumes. Although only modest, the latest survey pointed to the sharpest drop in new work from abroad since November 2014.
