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Börsipäev 6. juuni

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  • Verizoni töötajate streiki arvestades olid turuosalised valmis nägema tavapärasest tagasihoidlikumat tööturu raportit, kuid et Ühendriikides loodi mais vaid 38 tuhat töökohta (prognoositi 160 tuhat), lõi paljudel jalad alt. Aktsiaturud suutsid siiski esimesest negatiivsest reaktsioonist taastuda ning vähendada kaotust -0,3%ni, mis jättis S&P 500 indeksi nädala lõikes püsima samale tasemele. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 sulguda enne Wall Streeti taastumist -0,9% madalamal ning kaotas nädala lõikes -2,4%, mida osaliselt ajendas euro tugevnemine dollari suhtes 2,3% võrra 1,1367 dollarile.



    Lisaks sellele, et USAs loodi mais vähim uusi töökohti viimase kuue aasta jooksul, viitas teenindussektori ISM indeksi langus mais -2,8 punkti võrra 52,9 punktile ehk madalaimale tasemele alates 2014.a veebruarist, et riigi majanduse taastumine märtsis ja aprillis pole olnud jätkusuutlik. Raske on erinevate mudelite järgi leida kindlat konsensusest, kui Markiti kohaselt viitavad küsitlused USA teise kvartali SKP 0,7-0,8% annualiseeritud kasvule, NY FEDi mudel hindab nii Q2 kui ka Q3 kasvuks üle 2% ning Atlanta FEDi mudel näeb majandust teises kvartalis kasvamas 2,5%.



    Värskem konjunktuur loob uuesti lõkkele debati, millal võiks FED intressimäära kergitamist jätkata. Janet Yellen ütles alles mai lõpus, et kui majandus kulgeb edasi ootuspärases tempos, võiks lähikuudel rahapoliitika edasine normaliseerimine olla sobilik käik. Vaatamata pettumuse valmistanud tööturu raportile leidis FOMC hääletav liige Loretta Mester nädalavahetusel, et ühe kuu statistika tema silmis fundamentaalselt tugevat üldpilti ei muuda ning intressimäära tuleks aeglases tempos edasi tõsta. Turuosalised on aga selles osas muutunud skeptilisemaks, sest kui mai lõpus hinnati juunis intressimäära tõstmise tõenäosust 34%, siis nüüd on see kõigest 4% ning juulis 26%. Tõenäosus tõuseb üle 50% alles FOMC detsembri istungiks.

    Kuu algusele tavapäraselt on globaalne majandusuudiste valik sel nädalal võrdlemisi tagasihoidlik, kui peamise fookuse all saavad olema suuremate Euroopa riikide aprillikuu tööstustoodangu numbrid, mis annavad paremat aimu teise kvartali tegelikust majandusaktiivsusest. Ühendriikides saab kõrgpunktiks olema Janet Yelleni tänaõhtune esinemine, kus tahetakse kuulda tema tõlgendust maikuu tööturu raportist ja selle mõjust Föderaalreservi rahapoliitikale.

    09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (aprill)
    17.00 FEDi tööturu tingimuste indeks (mai)
    19.30 Janet Yellen esineb kõnega
  • Saksamaa tehaste tellimused, mis kipub olema väga volatiilne statistika, kukkusid aprillis -2,0% võrreldes märtsiga, jäädes alla analüütikute prognoositud -0,5%le. Mõnevõrra pehmendas muutust märtsi tõusu positiivne revideerimine (1,9% asemel 2,6%).
  • Täna on Stockholmi börs seoses pühadega suletud.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    YGE +33.2%, XCRA +8.1%

    M&A news: CXRX +5.9% (attributed to Apollo talks (WSJ reported last week that Apollo may still be interested but Blackstone and Carlyle walked away)), ACAD +2.6% (UK Daily Mail story circulating that lists potential bidders), GRPN +1.4% (announces Groupon Indonesia to be acquired by KFit; Groupon to be strategic shareholder of KFit)

    Select Biotech/Pharma names showing strength after presenting at ASCO over the weekend: JUNO +7.1%, ONTY +6.2%, CLDW +5.3%, PBYI +5.2%, KITE +5%, EXEL +4.1%, ARRY +3.2%, ARIA +1.3%

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:
    RIO +3.3%, BBL +3.2%, VALE +3%, BHP +2.9%, CLF +2.8%, FCX +2.3%, AA +1.2%, MT +1%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength:
    SDRL +3.5%, CHK +3.2%, STO +2.2%, WLL +2%

    Other news: ADAP +69.3% (presents data from clinical studies of NY-ESO-1 SPEAR), VBLT +35% (Phase 2 VB-111 results in recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) meets primary endpoint), LC +3.9% (reports that NY's regulators have stepped up their investigation into online lenders), OVAS +3.7% (seeing modest rebound following last week's weakness following stock offering), YNDX +3.2% (still checking), PLX +3.2% (initiates PRX-102 global Phase III clinical trial of Fabry Disease to support United States and European Filings), IDI +2.2% (announces business update on idiCORE; has on-boarded over 2,800 users), LGIH +1.5% (reports home closings for May rose 69% YoY), AVXL +1.3% (Shared clinical phenotypes and underlying pathophysiology of Autism-Related Disorders such as Fragile X and Rett syndrome), VRX +1% (WSJ previews earnings)

    Analyst comments: JAZZ +3.9% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), HZNP +2.8% (initiated with a Buy at Goldman), CNHI +2.7% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), WMT +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    SSL -8.7%, FAST -0.5%, (reports May net sales)

    Select EU financial related names showing weakness
    : LYG -1.9%, DB -1.4%, RBS -1%, HSBC -0.7%, BCS -0.5%

    Other news: DNAI -57.2% (interim results from the Wolverine Phase 2 trial of PNT2258; will suspend development of PNT2258 pending further review), ADMP -41.5% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA for its Epinephrine pre-filled syringe NDA), OCUL -40.9% (reports Phase 3 Clinical Trial of DEXTENZA - Primary endpoint for ocular itching not achieved), MRTX -28.6% (light volume, presented data at ASCO), ABBV -3.6% (following disappointing Rova-T data treating small cell lung cancer (SCLC) at ASCO), CDXC -2.8% (to offer ~1.1 mln shares of common stock at $4.70/share), OLLI -1.4% (affiliates of CCMP Capital Advisors intend to offer 10 mln shares of the co's common stock in an underwritten public offering), WPX -1.4% (announces a 45 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock)

    Analyst comments: PWE -8.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan ), CUDA -2.6% (downgraded to Mkt Underperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities), TSN -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), AWK -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood), RGR -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts), PPC -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital), QLIK -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust).

    Briefing.com
  • Kuna Yellen nimetab viimast tööturu raportit murettetitavaks, on tõenäoliselt raske selle baasil intressimäära järgmine nädal tõsta. Kui juuni NFP saab olema rahuldav, ei ole tõstmine juulis välistatud

    Yellen: So the overall labor market situation has been quite positive. In that context, this past Friday's labor market report was disappointing./--/Although this recent labor market report was, on balance, concerning, let me emphasize that one should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report. Other timely indicators from the labor market have been more positive. But speaking for myself, although the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones. As a result, I expect the economic expansion to continue, with the labor market improving further and GDP growing moderately
    /--/
    Unfortunately, as I noted earlier, new questions about the economic outlook have been raised by the recent labor market data. Is the markedly reduced pace of hiring in April and May a harbinger of a persistent slowdown in the broader economy? Or will monthly payroll gains move up toward the solid pace they maintained earlier this year and in 2015? Does the latest reading on the unemployment rate indicate that we are essentially back to full employment, or does relatively subdued wage growth signal that more slack remains? My colleagues and I will be wrestling with these and other related questions going forward.

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