Börsipäev 12. juuli
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Uudiste ja käibe osas võrdlemisi vaikseks osutunud päev andis ostjatele võimaluse hoida momentumit ning aidata S&P 500 indeksil jõuda 0,3% tõusuga rohkem kui 400 päeva kestnud põua järel rekordkõrgele sulgumistasemele. Kuigi lühiajaliselt on turg lähenemas üleostetud territooriumile ning vajaks hingetõmmet, siis ajalooliselt on nõnda pika pausi järel uue 52 nädala tipu vallutamine tähendanud üsna kõrge tõenäosuse juures ralli jätkumist. Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 kolmandat päeva plussis, kerkides 1,6%.
USA juunikuu oodatust parema tööjõuraporti tulemusel taastus ka FEDi koostatud tööturu tingimuste indeks madalaimalt tasemelt alates 2009.a (-1,9 punkti vs -3,6 punkti mais), kuid negatiivne näit viitab sellele, et tööturu momentum on jätkuvalt aeglustumas.
Kansas City FEDi president Esther George (FOMC hääletav liige) jätkas eile rahapoliitika normaliseerimise toetamist, viidates juunis uuesti hoogustunud palkamisele. Tema sõnul on majandus saavutanud täistööhõive, samal ajal aga jäävad intressimäärad rekordmadalale tasemele, luues potentsiaalseid riske. Esther George on FOMC liikmetest üks suurim intressimäära tõstmise propageerijaid, hääletades tänavu kahel istungil neljast tõstmise kasuks (maikuu oodatust nõrgema tööturu raporti ja Brexiti referendumi tõttu juuni istungil ta kolleegide otsusele vastu ei astunud).
Sidneys esinenud Clevelandi FEDi presidendi Loretta Mesteri arvates võib Brexit keskpikas perspektiivis läbi finantsturgude ja dollari USA majandusele mõju avaldada, kuid finantsstabiilsuse säilitamine ei tohiks kujuneda FEDi jaoks eraldiseisvaks eesmärgiks. Intressimäära ja rahapoliitikat tuleks rakendada kriisi ennetamisel siis, kui teistest vahenditest ei piisa ning finantsriskid jätkavad kasvamist. Ka tema on varem öelnud, et intressimäära hoidmine pikka aega madalal tasemel loob finantsstabiilsusele riske, kuid tänases kõnes ei käsitlenud ta USA majanduse ja intressimäärade lähiaja väljavaadet.
Aasia aktsiaturud jätkasid öösel kõrgemale liikumist eesotsas Jaapaniga, kus Nikkei kauples kirjutamise hetkel 2,5% plussis. Üheks katalüsaatoriks on jeeni 2,5% odavnemine dollari suhtes viimase kahe päeva jooksul ning samuti kutsus Jaapani keskpanga 29. juuli istungi eel spekuleerimist esile uudis keskpanga juhi Haruhiko Kuroda ja Föderaalreservi endise presidendi Ben Bernanke kohtumisest.
Majandusuudiste valik jääb täna võrdlemisi tagasihoidlikuks, kui suuremat huvi võiks pakkuda USA väikefirmade juunikuu kindlustunde indeksi muutus ning maikuu JOLTS tööturu küsitlus.
09.00 Saksamaa inflatsioon (juuni lõplik)
10.30 Rootsi inflatsioon (juuni)
13.00 USA väikefirmade kindlustunde indeks (juuni)
15.00 Brasiilia jaemüük (mai)
16.15 FEDi Tarullo esineb
16.35 FEDi Bullard esineb
17.00 USA hulgimüügi varude muutus (mai)
17.00 USA JOLTS tööturu küsitlus (mai) -
USA väikefirmade kindlustunde indeks paranes juunis 0,7 punkti 94,5 punktile, ületades sellega analüütikute 93,9punktist ootust, kuid suure kella külge küsitluse läbiviija seda muutust ei paneks
“Small business optimism did not go down, which is good, but small businesses are in maintenance mode experiencing little growth,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty is high, expectations for better business conditions are low, and future business investments look weak. Our data indicate that there will be no surge from the small business sector anytime soon and prospects for economic growth are cloudy at best.”
Calling the current economy an expansion is an absolute oxymoron, said Juanita Duggan, NFIB President and CEO. “Fifty percent of GDP is small business. To grow the economy, policy makers need to get serious about tax reform, over-regulation, and health care costs.” -
korrigeerimised Iirimaal....
IRELAND 2015 ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED TO 26.3% FROM 7.8%
IRISH 1Q GDP RISES 2.3% VS YEAR EARLIER
Revisions linked in part to U.S. companies inverting to have an Irish base, stats office says -
Bernsteini CS ja UBSi kommentaaridest loeb välja üsna negatiivse turu väljavaate
*Credit Suisse and UBS face a 10% decline in Private Banking AUM as global equity rally comes to an end and markets turn, Bernstein says in note.
* Says 10% drop will be from mark-to-market and outflows
* That compares to 30% drop in AUM during financial crisis
* End to QE-driven rally in equities and properties will hurt
* Rich people have never been so geared to equities and other risk assets
* UBS, CS’s gross margins may drop 5bps-10bps
* Political risk likely to damp ECM markets that are most important to UBS, CS
* Downturn in IB cycle has just started, past cycles lasted 7-8 quarters
* CS “couldn’t have picked worse macro environment” for revamp
* Sees CS becoming a permanent, structural short
* UBS, CS both not done with capital yet, with leverage a constraint on capital for both
* Both should clear CET1 -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STX +13.7%, NEPT +13.7%, AA +3.7%, (Cube Hydro Carolinas reaches agreement to acquire hydroelectric plants from Alcoa Power Generating)
M&A news:
RRD +5.7% (reports of RR Donnelley & Sons potential merger with Xerox's Copy unit)
XRX +2.3%
Select EU financial related names showing strength: DB +5.1%, BCS +4.6%, LYG +4.5%, SAN +4%, RBS +3.4%, ING +2.9%, HSBC +0.5%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: CLF +6.7%, MT +4.2%, FCX +3.9%, VALE +2.3%, SBGL +1.6%, RIO +1.6%, GFI +1.2%, BHP +1%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +4.9%, TOT +2.8%, MRO +2.7%, SWN +2.7%, RDS.A +1.7%, BP +1.5%
Other news:
SAGE +41.9% (announces positive top-line results from its Phase 2 clinical trial of SAGE-547)
JRJR +13.6% ( compliance plan was accepted by NYSE MKT relating to failure to timely file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q)
BAA +12.8% (reports Q2 operating results)
BDSI +11.2% ( secured preferred formulary status for BUNAVAIL on a 'significant' managed care plan)
CEL +8.4% (Company commenced legal actions against Golan Telecom, including a request for an interim injunction against the consummation of the Golan Telecom - Hot Mobile agreement)
MGT +7.4% (following late pullback -- released prelim proxy statement)
CASC +5.7% (Growth Equity Opportunities Fund discloses 8.3% active stake)
SHPG +5.2% (receives FDA approval for Xiidrag)
BLFS +5.1% (following Monday's 50%+ move higher)
WDC +4.1% (on STX guidance)
RLYP +3.7% (discloses new patient starts, outpatient prescriptions and units sold to hospitals/other institutions for June)
CLDX +3.1% (initiates Phase 1/2 clinical trial of new product candidate CDX-014 in advanced renal cell carcinoma)
REN +3% (following Monday's 50%+ move higher; also John C. Goff increases active stake to 9.9%)
STM +2.5% (in sympathy with STX)
GSS +2% (Pre-commercial production has commenced at its Wassa Underground Mine in Ghana, as scheduled)
NTIP +1.4% ( discloses settlement of patent litigation with Alcatel-Lucent Entities and ALE)
UAL +1.4% (reported June 2016 operational results; expects Q2 passenger unit revenue to decline 6.50% to 6.75% YoY, citing several headwinds )
Analyst comments:
CHK +4.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray)
GFI +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan)
ORCL +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
IMPV -5.5%, (lowers Q2 guidance citing impacts by extended sales cycles across most geographies and verticals predominantly relating to larger deals)
FAST -1.8%
Select gold mining stocks trading lower: HMY -2.4%, GOLD -1.8%, AU -1.6%, RGLD -1.6%, CDE -1.4%, ABX -1.1%, NEM -1%, GDX -1%
Other news:
CYTR -65.3% ( announces results of an analysis of its Phase 3 clinical trial of aldoxorubicin compared to investigator's choice therapy in patients with relapsed or refractory soft tissue sarcomas; study did not show a significant difference between aldoxorubicin and investigator's choice therapy for PFS)
CKEC -2.5% (AMC Entertainment (AMC) says remains committed to moving forward with plan to acquire Carmike despite announcing it would acquire Odeon & UCI Cinemas Group)
ALR -2.4% (Alere to initiate voluntary withdrawal of the Alere INRatio and INRatio 2 PT/INR monitoring system)
REG -2.3% (prices 4.35 mln common stock offering; will be no impact to Core Funds from Operations as a result of these one-time charges; however, the combined one-time charges will reduce net income attributable to common stockholders per share and NAREIT FFO/share by ~$0.58 in 3Q16)
CHRS -1.3% (after closing near highs -- up 25% on the day)
PANW -1.1% (in sympathy with IMPV guidance)
TSLA -0.8% (WSJ reported potential SEC investigation)
Analyst comments:
DRD -5.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
CBB -1.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli & Co)
FIT -1.3% (initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
AWI -1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
VOD -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
Briefing.com
