Börsipäev 15. juuli
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Kuigi Inglise keskpank jättis intressimäära oodatud 25baaspunktise kärpimise asemel 0,5% peale, viidati rahapoliitika lõdvendamisele augustikuu istungil ning seetõttu ei suudetud turgudel ära rikkuda ostjate meeleolu, mis aitas S&P 500 indeksil jõuda 0,5% tõusuga järjekordse rekordtasemeni (2163,75 punkti). Euroopas parandas Stoxx 600 taset 0,8% võrra.
Eile hilisõhtul Nice’is toimunud terrorirünnakud pole Aasia börsidele olulist mõju avaldanud ning investorite fookus oli rohkem suunatud Hiina majandusnäitajatele, mis osutusid valdavalt oodatust paremaks. Juunikuu tööstustoodangu kasv kiirenes 0,2pp võrra 6,2% peale (oodati 5,9%), jaemüügi kasv paranes 0,6pp võrra 10,6%le (oodati 9,9%), kuid aeglasemas tempos jätkus investeeringute kasv (YTD mais 9,6% vs YTD juunis 9,0% vs oodatud 9,4%) peamiselt erasektori tõttu, samal ajal kui valitsus on tänavu kapitalikulutusi jõudsalt suurendanud. Kokkuvõttes aitas majandusaktiivsuse hoogustumine juunis hoida SKP kasvu teises kvartalis stabiilsena 6,7% peal ehk kümnendiku võrra enam kui ootasid analüütikud.
Olulist statistikat laekub täna ka Ühendriikidest, kus selgub juunikuu jaemüük, tarbijate juulikuu kindlustunde indeks ning juuli esimene regionaalne töötleva tööstuse küsitlus. Citigroupi, US Bancorpi ja Wells Fargo majandustulemused näitavad, kuidas möödus kvartal teiste suurpankade jaoks, mille aktsiaid JPMorgani oodatust paremate numbrite peale eile üles osteti.
09.00 Eurotsooni uute autode registreerimised (juuni)
09.00 Soome SKP indikaator (mai)
12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (juuni lõplik)
15.30 USA jaemüük (juuni)
15.30 USA inflatsioon (juuni)
15.30 USA NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (juuli)
16.15 USA tööstustoodang (juuni)
17.00 USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (juuli)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete naftapuurtornide arv (15. juuli) -
Ajalugu ütleb, et nüüd oleks hea aeg osta pihta saanud Euroopa finantssektorit, kuid Citi eelistab pigem jääda neutraalseks
*Valuation suggests a lot of risks priced into share prices after strong de-rating over last 12-15 months, Citi says.
* Highlights valuation spread within banks (i.e. cheap bank quintile vs expensive bank quintile) recently spiked above 6x, which has happened only three times before
* Notes from these valuation spread levels it has usually been a good time to buy banks vs market and has always
been a good time to buy low quality vs high-quality banks
* Says tempted to turn more positive, ultimately finds it difficult when considering alternative ways of extracting value from European equity markets
* Would prefer another high dividend yield sector (oil & gas) ahead of banks
* Prefers autos to banks as a financial proxy
* Remains neutral on banks with political, fundamental risks remaining high; however, wouldn’t want to be underweight
* Says likes barbell of Unicredit, Danske -
Uute autode registreerimised kasvasid ELis juunis 6,9% võrreldes mullu sama ajaga. Kasvutempo on küll märkimisväärselt madalam kui mais saavutatud 16% aga üldiselt kipub nõnda suur kõikumine olema tingitud erinevatest müügipäevade arvust. Mõju on muidugi avaldamas kasvu tugevam aeglustumine UKs.
• VW Group sales rise 1% y/y; ytd up 4.2%
• PSA Group sales drop 1.1% y/y; ytd up 5.9%
• Renault Group sales rise 19.9% y/y; ytd up 12.6%
• Opel Group sales rise 0.3% y/y; ytd up 7.9%
• Ford sales drop 1.1% y/y; ytd up 5.3%
• FCA Group sales rise 12.9% y/y; ytd up 16.8%
• BMW Group sales rise 15.7% y/y; ytd up 14%
• Daimler sales rise 16.1% y/y; ytd up 15.2%
• Toyota Group sales rise 6.7% y/y; ytd up 8.3%
• Nissan sales drop 2.9% y/y; ytd down 1.3% -
Soome SKP indikaatori järgi kahanes sisemajanduse kogutoodang mais YoY -0,3%, olles aprillis näidanud 0,6% kasvu. Siin aga tasub nentida, et seda näitajat kiputakse üsna tugevalt revideerima (aprilli languseks hinnati enne tänast korrigeerimist -0,4%)
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Aktsiaturgude tõus on aidanud kergitada optimistide osakaalu USA väikeinvestorite seas kõrgeimale tasemele viimase nelja kuu jooksul
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Aktsiaturgude põrkest hoolimata ei näita kapitali liikumine fondides, et investorid oleksid ülemäära optimistlikud
* European equity funds recorded the largest outflows on record of $5.8b last week, marking a 23rd straight week of redemptions, BofAML strategists write in note, citing EPFR Global data.
* U.K. equity funds see $0.9b outflows, have seen outflows in 11 of past 12 weeks
* BofAML’s Bull & Bear Indicator triggered a contrarian “buy” signal for risk assets two weeks ago when sentiment fell to an “extreme bearish” reading of 1.6.
* Latest reading is 1.8, and BofAML sees “more tactical upside ahead”
* U.S. equity funds saw $12.6b inflows last week, largest since Sept. 2015
* EM equity funds see $1.6b inflows, largest since March 2016
* In fixed income, EM debt funds see inflows of $2.7b
* HY bond funds see inflows of $4.4b for the week, largest since March 2016, saw largest daily HY bond inflows on record on Monday of $2.1b
* IG bond funds see $1.8b, 19 straight weeks of inflows -
Citigroup prelim Q2 $1.24 vs $1.10 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $17.55 bln vs $17.48 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Wells Fargo prelim Q2 $1.01 vs $1.01 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.2 bln vs $22.09 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
USA jaemüük kasvas juunis kütust ja autosid arvestamata MoM 0,7% ehk tublisti rohkem kui oodatud 0,3% (mai revideeriti 0,1pp võrra nõrgemaks 0,2% peale). Alusinflatsioon kiirenes juunis 0,1pp võrra 2,3%le (oodati 2,2%) ja NY töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks langes 5,46 punkti 0,55 punktile, jäädes alla konsensuse 5,0punktisele ootusele
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
CIDM +53.3%, (thinly traded)
ITI +11.1%, (sees Q1 revs +28-33% y/y to $23.5-24.5 mln vs $20.01 mln single analyst estimate; demonstrates continued 'strong acceleration' across all business segments)
FHN +3.5%
ALR +2.7%, (updates on delayed Form 10-K, offers prelim FY15, 1Q16 financial results)
RECN +1.9%
USB +1.9%
PNC +0.8%
C +0.8%
M&A news:
RAD +2.8% (Walgreens Boot Alliance is in discussions with FTC regarding asset sales to gain approval for Rite Aid (RAD) M&A deal, according to NY Post)
JUNO +1.4% (acquires RedoxTherapies for upfront payment of $10 mln)
Other news:
HLF +12.4% (reports that the FTC has deemed it is not a pyramid scheme; Herbalife will agree to adjust some of its business practices)
SAEX +8.7% (to grant, on a pro rata basis, two series of warrants to the existing holders of their common stock to purchase shares of common stock)
BCLI +2.5% (following late move higher - after confirming plans to announce topline results from its completed Phase 2 Study of NurOwn in Patients with ALS on July 18), RARE +2.3% (announces positive topline data from phase 3 Study of Recombinant Human Beta-Glucuronidase in MPS 7; Study meets primary endpoint )
NUS +2.2% (trading higher with peer HLF)
OHI +1.1% (increases quarterly dividend)
GSK +1% (Five Prime Therapeutics announces that GSK (GSK) exercised its option to take an exclusive license to the IP related to a target under the respiratory diseases research collaboration)
Analyst comments: VYGR +1.4% (initiated with a Buy at Stifel; tgt $33)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
FMSA -13.8%
SLP -10.7%
INFY -9.2%
UUU -5.9%, (thinly traded, Universal Security to further delay the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended March 31, 2016, offers prelim Q4 results)
PPHM -5.5%
GBSN -4.8%, (reports Q2 rev +39% to $729K; customer base +126% to 260 (253 D. diff); raises customer base guidance to 320-335 at yer end)
PLG -1.3%
WFC -1.1%
Select travel/leisure names showing weakness following France attacks: RYAAY -2.5%, DAL -2.2%, EXPE -1.9%, PCLN -1.8%, CCL -1.7%, UAL -1.5%, LUV -1%, .
Other news:
CYTR -27.7% (prices a registered public offering of ~28.6 mln shares of common stock at $0.70/share for proceeds of ~$20 mln)
ZIOP -21.3% (Biotech blogger Adam F reports co was unable to raise money through Jefferies )
CLRB -4.3% (Chief Scientific Officer Dr. Jamey Weichert tenders resignation effective July 15)
FOSL -3% (Watch peer Swatch down ~11% in European trading after issuing H1 profit warning)
RVNC -2.8% (Revance Therapeutics announces the completion of its Type B / pre-IND / pre-Phase 3 meeting with the FDA regarding DaxibotulinumtoxinA for Injection for the treatment of glabellar lines)
EMES -2.8% (FMSA sympathy)
HCLP -2.5% (FMSA sympathy)
LC -2.4% (still checking)
Analyst comments:
CMG -1.8% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
NVDA -1.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
TEVA -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
TOT -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill)
RELX -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)
Briefing.com -
TÜRGIS ALGAS SÕJALINE RIIGIPÖÖRE!
* TURKEY ARMED FORCES SAY THEY'VE TAKEN CONTROL OF COUNTRY
* TURKEY ARMED FORCES: TOOK CONTROL TO RESTORE FREEDOM, DEMOCRACY
* TURKEY ARMED FORCES: WE GUARANTEE VALIDITY OF ALL INTNL DEALS
* CAVUSOGLU: WE WILL PROTECT DEMOCRACY UNTIL THE END
* TURKISH WARPLANES FLY LOW OVER CAPITAL ANKARA
* TURKISH PRIME MINISTER SAYS UPRISING ERUPTS WITHIN ARMY RANKS
* YILDIRIM: THERE IS AN UPRISING WITHIN ARMY RANKS
* YILDIRIM: SOME TURKISH ARMY UNITS SIEGED SOME INSTITUTIONS
* TURKISH POLICE ORDERED TO USE ARMS IF NECESSARY: YILDIRIM
* TURKISH STATE-RUN TRT TV SHUT DOWN
* GUNSHOTS HEARD NEAR PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IN ANKARA
* EXPLOSION HEARD NEAR TURKISH POLICE ACADEMY IN ANKARA'S GOLBASI
