Börsipäev 4. august
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Energiasektor vedas S&P 500 indeksi 0,3% kõrgemale tänu nafta 3,3% põrkele. Ehkki USA toornafta varud kasvasid läinud nädalal 1,413 miljoni barreli võrra, vastupidiselt oodatud -1,49 miljoni suurusele langusele, siis suuremat tähelepanu pälvis bensiinivarude kahanemine-3,262 miljoni barreli võrra (prognoositi -0,39 mln), mis on suvise autosõidu hooajal viimaste aastate üks suurimaid languseid. Samuti vähenes toornafta toodang esimest korda viimase nelja nädala jooksul. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 ilma muutuseta.
Kui jätta välja Suurbritannia, kus Brexiti hääletusest tingitud löök tarbijate ja ettevõtete kindlustunde pihta jättis erasektori aktiivsusele juulis tugeva negatiivse jälje, siis mujal maailmas viitasid küsitlused eile teenindussektori stabiilse kasvu jätkumisele. Tänu mõnevõrra kõrgemale aktiivsusele töötlevas tööstuses indikeerivad PMId globaalse majanduse kasvu marginaalsele kiirenemisele kolmanda kvartali alguses. JPMorgani koostatud indeks kerkis 0,2 punkti 51,4 punktile, saavutades kõrgeima taseme viimase kolme kuu jooksul ning veidi hoogsam uute tellimuste pealevool annab lootust majanduskasvu jätkumiseks.
ADP küsitluse järgi loodi Ühendriikide erasektoris juulis 179 tuhat töökohta, mida oli analüütikute ootusest üheksa tuhande võrra enam. Kuigi viimased kaks kuud näitasid, et ADP küsitluse ja valitsuse avaldatud tegelike numbrite vahel võivad esineda suured käärid, siis võiks ADP numbri püsimine kolm kuud järjest 175-180 tuhande vahel viidata vähemalt stabiilselt jätkuvale palkamisele.
Rambivalgus langeb täna Inglise keskpanga istungile, kus intressimäära kärpimine on investorite poolt tänaseks juba täielikult hindadesse sisse arvestatud. Küsimus on selles, kui palju intressimäära pärast 7a pausi alandatakse, kas paralleelselt suurendatakse ka varade ostuprogrammi ja milliste juhtnööride järgi tegutsetakse edasi.
10.30 Rootsi majade keskmine hind (juuli)
14.00 Inglise keskpanga istung, inflatsiooniraport
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
17.00 USA tehaste tellimused (juuni) -
Deutsche kohaselt on ka Euroopas ettevõtete aktsiakasum kujunemas mullusest väikseaks, kuid sarnaselt USAle on langus olnud kardetust siiski väiksem
*2Q earnings growth remains negative, but clearly ahead of consensus expectations, Deutsche Bank European equity strategy team, led by Sebastian Raedler, says in note.
* Says 65% of Stoxx 600 companies (by market cap) have reported 2Q results so far, reported EPS is down by 7.8% vs 2Q 2015, but above low consensus expectations for a 21% decline
* Net beats at 22% are highest since 2Q 2015 and well above their long-term average of 11%
* While EPS growth positive for only 2 out of 10 sectors, only 1 sector has a negative net beat ratio, reflects pessimism built into consensus expectations ahead of season
* Industrials and autos have been largest and only contributors to total EPS growth, energy and financials remain largest drag on EPS
* Auto cycle may be about to roll over as U.S. car sales show clear signs of weakening
* Think European auto earnings have seen their peak in 2Q and that market will further price weakening sales momentum
* U.K. EPS growth revised higher after referendum, with strong skew toward export-focused sectors, driving FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250 net earnings revisions to 4-year high -
Rootsi majade keskmine hind oli juulis 2,775 miljonit krooni, kasvades YoY 6,55% (juunis 8,0% ja mais 13,5%). Kuna eelmise kuu numbrit kiputakse üsna korralikult revideerima, ei saa juuli statistika põhjal midagi põhjapanevat hetkel järeldada.
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võib-olla küsitlused pisut ülehindavad referendumi negatiivset mõju Briti tarbijatele, sest uute autode registreerimised püsisid juulis samal tasemel võrreldes mullusega (juunis -0,8%). Muidugi aasta algusega võrreldes on toimunud kasvu selge aeglustumine
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Erko Rebane
võib-olla küsitlused pisut ülehindavad referendumi negatiivset mõju Briti tarbijatele, sest uute autode registreerimised püsisid juulis samal tasemel võrreldes mullusega (juunis -0,8%). [/img]
Juuli autod olid ilmselt suures osas juba enne BREXitit tellitud. -
Pärast väikest langsut juuli keskel on kulla hind liikunud uuesti ülespoole ning koos sellega on ka ETFid jätkanud kulla kokkuostu
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Erko, on sul Norra majade kohta samasugust graafikut panna, nagu sul Rootsi kohta on?
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pooled analüütikud ootasid QEd aga konsensus konkreetselt mitte
BOE Cuts Key Rate By 25Bps To 0.25% Vs 0.50%
BOE Boosts QE To GBP4350 Bln From GBP375 Bln -
Norra kohta konkreetset hinda pole aga on hinnaindeks (2005=100)
YoY muutus -
Veidi liha luudele:
*Bank of England says it will buy GBP60 bln gilts over six months.
* BOE to buy GBP10 bln corporate bonds over 18 months
* MPC voted 6-3 on QE; Weale, Forbes, McCafferty dissented
* MPC voted 8-1 on corp. bonds; Forbes dissented
* BOE announces term-funding scheme to mitigatate impact of low rates on some lenders
* BOE signals it may cut interest rate to near zero later this year. Says if data
come in as expected, ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in bank to its effective lower bound”
* BOE says lower bound is “close to, but a little above, zero”
* BOE says Brexit has weakened outlook. It cut 2017 GDP forecast to 0.8% v 2.3%, kept 2016 at 2%
* BOE to look through inflation spike driven by weaker pound. Sees CPI at 2.4% at 2yr horizon
* BOE estimates that APF, including est. of GBP100 bln via term funding, may expand GBP170 bln
* BOE sees U.K. economy growing just 0.1% this quarter -
Erko Rebane
Norra kohta konkreetset hinda pole aga on hinnaindeks (2005=100)
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Tänud! -
USA möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused oodatust nelja tuhande võrra suuremad, nelja nädala libisev keskmine kerkis 3750 võrra 260,25 tuhandele (aprilli mitmekümne aasta põhi 256K)
US Initial Jobless Claims 30-Jul: 269K (est 265K; prev 266K) -
UPGRADES:
* Apollo Global (APO) raised to outperform at Oppenheimer
* Raised to outperform at KBW
* Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) raised to neutral at BofAML
* Celgene (CELG) raised to buy at BTIG
* Cinemark (CNK ) raised to buy at B Riley
* Insight Enterprises (NSIT) raised to market perform at Raymond James
* IPass (IPAS) raised to buy at Chardan Capital
* Lumos Networks (LMOS) raised to buy at Jefferies
* Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) raised to overweight at JPMorgan
* Targa Resources (TRGP) raised to buy at Stifel
* Texas Instruments (TXN ) raised to neutral at Exane BNP Paribas
DOWNGRADES:
* American Capital (ACAS) cut to neutral at JPMorgan
* Chart Industries Inc (GTLS) cut to hold at Evercore ISI
* Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT) cut at FBR Capital Markets
* Cut to equalweight at Barclays
* EndoChoice (GI) cut to market perform at William Blair
* Expeditors International (EXPD ) cut to hold at Stifel
* Fleetmatics (FLTX) cut to equalweight at Barclays
* Garmin (GRMN) cut to underperform at BofAML
* Horizon Technology (HRZN) cut to market perform at Oppenheimer
* Cut to hold at Maxim Group
* Inovalon (INOV) cut to underweight at Piper Jaffray
* Cut to neutral at Goldman Sachs
* Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) cut to sell at Socgen
* Saia Inc (SAIA) cut to hold at Stifel
* Trinet Group (TNET) cut to equalweight/in-line at Morgan Stanley -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
ALIM +20%, SQ +19.3%, ETRM +17.9%, XPO +12.3%, AXGN +11.4%, AVEO +9.6%, PODD +8.6%, EXEL +8.5%, NSTG +8.3%, JACK +7.8%, GDDY +7.7%, (also names new CFO), AKRX +7.6%, GOGO +7.1%
AVID +6.4%, ERII +6.1%, EPE +6.1%, KTWO +6%, SNCR +5.9%, MX +5.9%, FXCM +5.5%, AV +5%, CSII +4.9%, CTB +4.6%, FIVN +4.5%, IO +4.4%, HSC +4.3%, SYN +4.2%, NSIT +4%
COT +3.9%, DNR +3.8%, MASI +3.6%, NLST +3.3%, SXL +2.8%, HL +2.8%, NGL +2.8%, ICPT +2.6%, TROX +2.5%, EVA +2.5%, PE +2.4%, HLF +2.4%, EVC +2.4%, BTG +2.2%, CNAT +2.1%, AREX +2%, HRTG +2%,
CHD +1.4%, ZUMZ +1.3%, (Zumiez Inc reports July same store sales -2.9% vs -7.6% Retail Metrics consensus; Q2 (Jul), sees Q2 EPS at high end or slightly better than prior guidance ($0.09)-(0.13) vs. ($0.09) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate primarily due to higher than planned sales), RIG +1.3%, LPI +1.3%, BLL +1.3%, MFC +1.3%, AGO +1.2%, FLXN +1%, HGG +0.9%, HRC +0.9%
Other news:
OCUL +23.6% (updates on its NDA for DEXTENZA; FDA issued a letter noting that corrective actions detailed in its responses as a whole appear to address the ten inspectional observations raised)
ICLD +21.3% (receives over $6.0 million in new contracts and purchase orders for professional services, network services and maintenance for new and existing customers)
CHEK +18.7% (enters into an agreement with GE Healthcare (GE) to develop and validate high-volume manufacturing for X-ray source production and assembly into its capsule)
ANTH +6.4% (announces completion of dosing in CHABLIS-SC1 Phase 3 clinical study with Blisibimod )
OMER +4.1% (announces results from its OMS906 complement program; OMS906 significantly reduced both incidence and severity of disease in a well-established animal model of arthritis mediated by the APC)
MASI +3.6% (announces the CE marking for the pediatric indication for O3 regional oximetry with the O3 pediatric sensor)
TOPS +3.1% ( enters into a senior secured facility with a major northern European bank for the financing of the M/T Nord Valiant)
ZIOP +2.9% (announces the publication of data highlighting the benefits of using the non-viral Sleeping Beauty system to genetically modify T-cells to express a CAR for use against leukemias and lymphomas)
Analyst comments:
CELG +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research)
HSBC +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
APO +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
TDOC -24%, SGMO -22.7%, INOV -18.1%, BSQR -15.9%, TEGP -14.6%, BBRG -13.9%, FRSH -13.5%, QUIK -11%, GI -10.1%, (also files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering and 6,060,444 shares common stock offering by selling stockholders; announces recent FDA clearance and US launch of Lumos with Adaptive Matrix Imaging)
NSYS -9.7%, UHAL -9.5%, IMGN -8.8%, AMRN -8.7%, AME -8.2%, HOS -7.9%, TRIP -7.2%, PMT -6.4%, FRGI -6.1%, CHK -5.3%, GPOR -5%, GOLD -4.9%, CF -4.8%, MET -4.5%, IRG -4.3%, VTAE -4.3%, ANDE -4.1%, LGCY -4%
XOMA -3.9%, HIVE -3.8%, ALB -3.6%, ETP -3.6%, FOXA -3.5%, (also discloses that it eliminated the previously-announced suspension of voting rights of shares of Class B Common Stock held by stockholders who are not U.S. citizens ), ETE -3.4%, BDX -3.3%, CBPX -3.2%, (also expands share repurchase program to $100 mln from $50 mln), NOK -3.2%, LNC -3%, MED -2.9%, CTL -2.7%, ADRO -2.6%, TNK -2.4%, GERN -2.2%, G -2.1%, HSIC -2%
PRU -1.9%, (also authorized a $500 mln increase to the existing share repurchase authorization for calendar year 2016), EVHC -1.9%, AGU -1.9%, TSO -1.9%, (also increases quarterly dividend), BLUE -1.8%, AWK -1.8%, NAVB -1.8%, DYN -1.7%, CXW -1.7%, LODE -1.7%
PEGA -1.4%, SYNC -1.3%, CCOI -1.3%, HMHC -1.2%, SBH -1.2%, NLY -1.1%, CIM -1.1%, OAS -1.1%
Other news:
MNTA -14.8% (discontinues further accrual of its Phase 2 trial evaluating necuparanib in combination with Abraxane and gemcitabine in patients with advanced metastatic pancreatic cancer)
PQ -9.5% ( in 10-Q adds a potential bankruptcy filing to list of risk factors - Was not part of 10-Q filed in May)
AMRN -7.5% (announces that the FDA agreed to an amendment of its special protocol assessment agreement for the REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes study)
ADAP -4.9% (received notice from the FDA that a partial clinical hold has been placed on its planned pivotal study of NY-ESO SPEAR T-cell therapy in myxoid round cell liposarcoma )
RYAM -4.7% (announces public offering of 1,250,000 shares of the Company's Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock)
CP -3.3% (Canadian Pacific confirms the commencement of a public offering of 9,840,890 of common shares by certain funds managed by Pershing Square; Canadian Pacific and Canadian Natl Rail (CNI) agree to settle lawsuit commenced by CNI in August 2015 against CP, certain of its employees and an officer, alleging misuse of confidential information, without any admission of liability on the part of CP)
PCLN -0.6% (following TRIP earnings)
EXPE -0.5% (following TRIP earnings)
Analyst comments:
GRMN -1.6% ( downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
Briefing.com
