Börsipäev 16. august
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Positiivselt alanud nädal viis kõik kolm suuremat USA aktsiaturu indeksit järjekordsete rekorditeni, mis tähendas S&P 500 puhul 2190,15 punkti (+0,3%). Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 ilma olulise muutuseta, olles eelnevalt kaubelnud 0,4% kõrgemal. Mõnevõrra ajaloolise hetkena suutis Saksamaa DAXi indeks korraks näidata tänavu esimest korda positiivset tootlust ning Venemaa Micex jõudis oma ajaloo kõrgeima tasemeni, kuigi eurodes mõõdetuna on indeksi tase siiski 2007.a tipust 47% madalam.
Majandusuudistes langes fookus eile Ühendriikidele, kus augustikuu esimene töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks viitas üldise ärikeskkonna nõrgenemisele. New Yorki piirkonnas läbi viidud küsitluse kohaselt alanes üldine aktiivsusindeks augustis 0,55 punktilt -4,21 punktile, mis on madalaim tase alates maist ning jäi alla ka konsensuse prognoositud 2,0punktisele ootusele. Uute tellimuste indeks paranes küll -1,8 pealt +1,0le ning tarne 0,7 punktilt 9,0 punktile, kuid ettevõtted jäid järgmise kuue kuu väljavaate osas mõnevõrra skeptilisemaks (üldine indeks alanes 29,2 punktilt 23,7 punktile ning tuleviku tellimuste indeks langes 29,0 punktilt 27,4 punktile).
USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks kerkis augustis kahe punkti võrra 60 punktile, ühtides analüütikute ootusega ning saavutades teiseks kõrgeima taseme sel aastal. Jooksvat müüki peegeldav indeks kerkis kahe punkti võrra 65 punktile, järgmise kuue kuu oodatav müük kerkis punkti võrra 67 punktile, kuid potentsiaalsete ostjate liiklust kajastav indeks alanes teist kuud järjest 44 punktile.
Sarnaselt St Luis FEDi presidendile James Bullardile leidis San Francisco FEDi president John Williams (pole tänavu FOMC hääletav liige) oma eilses essees, et USA majandus seisab silmitsi uue normaalsusega ning keskpank peaks kaaluma oma senise poliitika muutmist. Tema sõnul võiks keskpank mõelda 2% inflatsioonieesmärgi tõstmisele või koguni asendamisele nominaalse SKP sihiga, kuna intressimäära loomulik tase on allapoole tulnud. Rahapoliitikal on tema arvates piiratud mõju, mistõttu peaks suurem raskus langema majandust stimuleerivale fiskaalpoliitikale.
Aasias möödus sessioon erisuunaliste liikumistega, kui negatiivsemaks kujunes päev Jaapanis, kus USD/JPY vahetuskursi jõudmine 100 jeeni lähedale (-1,0%) nõrgestas eksportijate väljavaadet ning tiris Nikkei indeksit protsendi jagu allapoole.
Majandusuudistest on täna laual inflatsiooni numbrid nii Suurbritannias kui ka Ühendriikides, kuigi viimase puhul pole tegu näitajaga, mida FEDile meeldib jälgida. Saksamaal hoitakse silma peal investorite ja analüütikute värsketel kindlustunde indeksitel ning USAs selguvad juulis alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arv.
11.30 Suurbritannia inflatsioon (juuli)
12.00 Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeksid (august)
15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused ja väljastatud ehitusload (juuli)
15.30 USA inflatsioon (juuli)
16.15 USA töötustoodang (juuli)
19.30 FEDi Lockhart esineb -
Veel mõnede investorite fondid teise kvartali seisuga:
Paulson & Co (John Paulson)
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
New positions in: EMC (~10 mln shares), JNJ (~0.1 mln), Q (~0.2 mln), SNY (~0.4 mln), TTWO (~1 mln), VMW (~2 mln)
Increased positions in: ODP (to ~15.7 mln shares from ~7.8 mln shares), SGYP (to ~27.8 mln from ~11.1 mln), VRX (to ~19.1 mln from ~13.3 mln)
Decreased positions in: ATVI (to ~1 mln shares from ~3.1 mln shares), BEAV (to ~1 mln from ~3 mln), FCH (to ~1 mln from ~2 mln), GRFS (to ~7.3 mln from ~17.5 mln), LIVN (to ~0.3 mln from ~2.5 mln), NG (to ~25.7 mln from ~35.5 mln), PRGO (to ~12.5k from ~2.6 mln), TMUS (to ~1 mln from ~14.6 mln)
Closed positions in: CIT (from ~3.5 mln shares), LRCX (from ~4.5 mln), DPLO (from ~0.2 mln), MTG (from ~2.7 mln), POST (from ~3.7 mln), RDN (from ~3.7 mln), WLL (from ~3.2 mln)
ValueAct Holdings (Jeffrey Ubben, Bradley Singer)
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
New positions in: STX (~3 mln shares), AFI (~4.6 mln), TRN (as previously disclosed: ~6 mln), MS (~38 mln)
Increased positions in: ADS (as previously disclosed increased to ~3.3 mln shares from ~0.5 mln shares), BHI (to ~38.9 mln from ~23.2 mln)
Decreased positions in: MSCI (to ~1.3 mln shares from ~4.1 mln shares)
Closed positions in: AGU (from ~3.2 mln), MSI (from ~8.2 mln)
Soros Fund Management (George Soros)
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
New positions in: BAC (~0.4 mln shares), AMAT (~0.4 mln), ATVI (~0.4 mln), SIGM (~0.7 mln), XXIA (~0.7 mln), CSAL (~0.7 mln), SUPV (~1.4 mln), VIPS (~0.3 mln), ROVI (~4.1 mln), LBRDK (~8.9 mln)
Increased positions in: CBPO (to ~0.2 mln shares from ~0.1 mln shares), DISH (to ~0.7 mln from ~0.5 mln), MODN (to ~2.1 mln from ~1.5 mln) ALLT (to ~1.4 mln from ~0.1 mln), EXAR (to ~2.8 mln from ~1.4 mln), QTM (to ~12.7 mln from ~1.7 mln),
Decreased positions in: ABX (to ~1.1 mln shares from ~19.4 mln shares), VIAV (to ~0.4 mln from ~10 mln), EBAY (to ~1.7 mln from ~3.7 mln), CZR (to ~3.3 mln from ~5 mln), QLGC (to ~0.4 mln from ~1.5 mln), ZTS (to ~1.3 mln from ~2.3 mln), MXL (to ~0.2 mln from ~0.9 mln), AAL (to ~0.3 mln from ~0.9 mln), PYPL (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.4 mln), JD (to ~0.8 mln from ~1.3 mln)
Closed positions in: SFS (from ~0.6 mln), OGE (from ~0.6 mln), ODP (from ~0.6 mln), RICE (from ~0.7 mln), RACE (from ~0.9 mln), TMUS (from ~0.5 mln), MZOR (from ~0.5 mln), RAD (from ~0.5 mln), IBN (from ~1.4 mln)
Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn)
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
New positions in: RAD (~10.3 mln shares), CPN (~5.7 mln), ARRS (~1.9 mln), QHC (~2.9 mln), HTZ (~3.3 mln), FMC (~0.7 mln), ABC (~0.5 mln), PRGO (~0.5 mln)
Increased positions in: CC (as previously announced increased to ~16.4 mln shares from ~8.8 mln shares), CYH (to ~2.4 mln from ~1.1 mln), MYL (to ~4.9 mln from ~2.9 mln), AER (to ~11.4 mln from ~9 mln)
Decreased positions in: CNX (to ~22 mln shares from ~29.6 mln shares), KORS (to ~4.8 mln from ~6.8 mln), TERP (to ~1.8 mln from ~2.9 mln)
Closed positions in: SUNEQ (from ~21.1 mln shares), GSAT (from ~11.3 mln), M (as previously announced - sold from ~7.1 mln), AGNC (as previously announced - sold ~4.8 mln), EMC (from ~2.5 mln), BAX (as previously announced - sold ~1.2 mln), IM (as previously announced sold ~1.1 mln), OIS (as previously announced sold ~0.9 mln)
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett)
Highlights from 2016 Q2 filing as compared to 2016 Q1 filing:
Increased positions in: AAPL (to ~15.2 mln shares from ~9.8 mln shares), LILA (to ~2.7 mln from ~0.5 mln)
Decreased positions in: WMT (to ~40.2 mln shares from ~55.2 mln shares), SU (to ~22.3 mln from ~30 mln) -
USA aktsiaturu tõus on sundinud turuosalisi katma oma lühikesi positsioone, tekitades pikkadele siiani võimalikku taganttuult. Kuid keegi ütle, et osakaal võiks veelgi allapoole tulla.
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S&P 500 futuurid näitavad hetkel maginaalset miinust, veidi punasemalt tõotab päev alata Euroopas
CAC 40 FUTURES DOWN 0.5 PCT, FTSE FUTURES DOWN 0.4 PCT
EUROSTOXX 50 FUTURES DOWN 0.5 PCT, DAX FUTURES DOWN 0.5 PCT -
Suurbritannia alusinflatsioon veidi aeglasem kui oodati
UK Core CPI (YoY) Jul: 1.30% (est 1.40%; prev 1.40%) -
Saksa investorite ja analüütikute jooksev hinnang majandusele paranes augustis 7,8 punkti 57,6 punktile, ületades konsensuse 50,2punktist ootust ning järgmise kuue kuu väljavaade 7,3 punkti 0,5 punktile, mis jäis siiski oodatust veidi tagasihoidlikumaks (2,0)
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USA alustatud elamuehituste arv arvatust tugevam
US Housing Starts Jul: 1.211M (est 1.180M; rev prev 1.186M)
Ehitusload ja alusinflatsioon mõnevõrra tagasihoidlikumad
US Building Permits Jul: 1.152M (est 1.160M; prev 1.153M)
Core CPI (MoM) Jul: 2.20% (est 2.30%; prev 2.30%) -
UPGRADES:
* Post Properties (PPS) raised to neutral at UBS
* Shenandoah (SHEN) raised to outperform at Raymond James
DOWNGRADES:
* Hain Celestial (HAIN) cut to underweight at Piper Jaffray
* Cut to neutral at SunTrust
* Cut to equalweight at Barclays
* JPMorgan (JPM) cut to marketperform at Bernstein
* Luxoft Holding (LXFT) cut to neutral at UBS
* Mirna Therapeutics (MIRN) cut to market perform at Leerink Partners
* Ocean Rig UDW (ORIG) cut to hold at Deutsche
* Performance Sports (PSG) cut to neutral at Wedbush
* Regions Financial (RF) cut to marketperform at Bernstein
* Smart & Final Stores (SFS) cut to underweight/in-line at Morgan Stanley
* SunTrust Banks (STI) cut to marketperform at Bernstein
* TubeMogul (TUBE) cut to equalweight at First Analysis
INITIATIONS:
* Broadwind Energy (BWEN) rated new outperform at Cowen
* Continental Resources (CLR) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
* GrubHub (GRUB) rated new hold at Jefferies, PT $43
* IBM (IBM) rated new market perform at Oppenheimer
* Patheon NV (PTHN) rated new buy at Evercore ISI
* Rated new buy at Jefferies
* TPI Composites (TPIC) rated new outperform at Cowen
* Rated new buy at Canaccord
* Rated new overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Rated new overweight at JPMorgan -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
SITO +16.1%, DKS +7.9%, MOMO +7.4%, INWK +7.2%, VIPS +7.1%, AST +6.8%, FN +5.5%, COTY +4.2%, HTHT +3.8%, BLIN +3.6%, (thinly traded)
BHP +3.3%, ATHM +3.2%, EAC +3.1%, IMMY +2.6%, (thinly traded), WKHS +2.3%, TEDU +2.1%, MGT +2%, ABEO +1.8%
M&A news:
STEM +20.9% (discloses agreement and plan of merger and reorganization with Microbot Medical)
PX +4.6% (WSJ report on potential merger with Linde)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +4.3%, GOLD +3.3%, BTG +3%, AUY +2.5%, EGO +2.4%, CLF +2.1%, SBGL +2.1%, X +2.1%, GG +2.1%, AG +1.8%, GDX +1.8%, VALE +1.7%, ABX +1.7%, NEM +1.7%, SLW +1.6%, SLV +0.9%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +2.5%, CHK +1.8%, RDS.A +1.7%, STO +1.7%, TOT +1%, WLL +1%
Other news:
ALLT +8.1% (Soros Fund Management increases passive stake)
EBIO +6.5% (grants Roche (RHHBY) license to develop/commercialize EBI-031 and all other IL-6 antagonist antibody technology; co entitled to receive $30 mln in payments from Roche)
PETX +4.1% ( granted FDA approval of NOCITA)
FNBC +3.6% (light volume, announces delay in filing 2015 annual report, has until Aug 25 )
SORL +3.5% (following Monday's 40%+ move higher on earnings)
RIO +2.9% (in sympathy with BHP earnings)
PSG +2.7% (after Monday's 45% sell-off following 10-K delay/update)
PNK +2.1% (authorizes a new $50 million stock repurchase program)
MARA +2% (has asserted its patent rights related to the French and Italian Parts of European Patent in both France and Italy, respectively)
JMEI +1.9% (following Shenzhen-HK stock link approval in China)
ACGL +1.2% (American Intl announces agreement to sell its 100% interest in United Guaranty Corporation to Arch Capital for $3.3 bln)
FIT +1.1% (Morgan Stanley discloses 6.7% passive stake )
SHLM +1.1% (Director in association with Barington disclosed purchase of 50K shares)
Analyst comments:
NE +2.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill )
DVN +1.5% (added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill)
SHEN +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)
MRO +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
TPIC +1.4% (initiated with a Outperform at Raymond James)
PTEN +0.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
HAIN -26.2%, (Hain Celestial delays release of its Q4 and FY16 results; also, co does not expect to achieve its previously announced guidance for FY16)
HTBX -12.9%, (also enters into At Market Issuance Sales Agreement to sell up to $10.5 mln in shares of its common stock), REPH -11.8%, EVOK -9.2%
ALRM -5.9%, CHCI -5.6%, SID -5.2%, TJX -4.6%, IMNP -4.4%, RENN -4.1%, AAP -3.4%, AFCO -2.5%, ASM -1.4%, PRKR -1.3%
Other news:
OGXI -34.4% (Phase 3 AFFINITY trial of Custirsen in men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer did not meet the primary endpoint)
REPH -11.8% (Recro Pharma intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering)
UNVR -6% (prices offering of 20,943,741 shares of Univar's common stock at $19/share by selling shareholders )
GALT -5.8% (Galectin Therapeutics files for 2 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
HPT -4.2% (prices offering of 11 mln shares of common stock at $30.75 per share)
OCUL -3.9% (modestly pulling back following recent multiple day strength)
CXO -3.8% (prices 9 mln shares of common stock for total gross proceeds of ~$1.18 bln)
GBDC -2.7% ( to make a public offering of 1,750,000 shares of its common stock)
VRTX -2.4% (updates on its Phase 3 development program of its VX-661 in combination with ivacaftor; plans to stop the study of VX-661 and ivacaftor in people with one copy of the F508del mutation after DSMB review)
PE -2.1% (Parsley Energy to acquire certain undeveloped acreage and producing oil and gas properties, as well as associated mineral and overriding royalty interests, for an aggregate purchase price of $400 mln; commenced an underwritten public offering of 7,000,000 shares of Class A common stock)
ATVI -2% (still checking - Paulson disclosed decreased position, while Lone Pine disclosed new position)
SHOP -1.5% (Shopify files prelim prospectus supplement to its short form base shelf prospectus dated August 5; 7.5 mln Class A subordinate voting shares will be offered for sale under the Offering )
PCG -0.7% ( commences 4.9 mln common stock offering)
Analyst comments:
JPM -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein)
Briefing.com -
USA töösustoodang oodatust tugevam, juuni 0,6% kasv revideeriti 0,4% peale
US Industrial Production (MoM) Jul: 0.70% (est 0.30%; rev prev 0.40%)
US Manufacturing Production (MoM) Jul: 0.50% (est 0.30%; rev prev 0.30%)
