Börsipäev 31. august
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Tugevnenud dollar ning sellest ajendatud nõrkus toorainetes avaldasid eile USA aktsiatele survet, kuid päev jäi kokkuvõttes siiski võrdlemisi vaikseks ning indeksid lõpetasid ilma suurema draamata -0,2% punases. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 pankade ja kindlustusfirmade eestvedamisel 0,5% kõrgemal.
USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks kerkis augustis 4,4 punkti võrra 101,1 punktile, saavutades kõrgeima taseme alates eelmise aasta septembrist ning jäädes vaid 2,7 punkti kaugusele kriisijärgsest tipust. Tegemist oli märksa parema tulemusega võrreldes analüütikute oodatud 97,0 punktiga, kes tõenäoliselt välistasid nõnda jõulise hüppe, kuna paralleelselt avaldatavas Michigani ülikooli koostatud küsitluses langes tarbijate kindlustunde indeks augustis nelja kuu madalaimale tasemele.
Arvestatava panuse andis paranenud hinnang tööturu tingimustele, mille põhjal võiks reedel oodata üsna tugevat statistikat. Tarbijate osakaal küsitluses, kes hindasid töökohtade kättesaadavust piisavaks, kerkis augustis kolme punkti võrra 26,0%le, mis oli kõrgeim tase majandussurutise järgsel perioodil. Samal ajal tõusis ka nende osakaal, kelle arvates oli töökohtasid raske leida (23,4% vs 22,1% juulis), kuid see kasv oli väiksem ning põrkas juulis saavutatud tsükli põhja lähedalt.
Ostuplaanide osa küsitluses nõnda selget signaali ei saatnud. Järgmise kuue kuu jooksul auto ostmist planeerivate tarbijate osakaal alanes kümne kuu põhja 11,0% peale, seevastu maja ostmist kaaluvate osakaal kerkis 1,3 punkti 6,4%, märkides seitsme kuu tippu ning samuti kerkis ka suurema seadme soetamist planeerivate osakaal (50,3 vs 49,3 juulis), ühtides viimaste aastate keskmisega.
Tänase börsipäeva majandusuudistest tõuseb esile ennekõike USA ADP tööturu küsitlus, mis annab võimalikke vihjeid reedel avaldatava ametliku statistika kohta. Prantsusmaa ja Saksamaa juulikuu jaemüügi statistika näitab, kas tarbija on jätkuvalt regiooni kahe suurima majanduse peamiseks kasvuveduriks ning eurotsooni augustikuu esmane inflatsioon peaks energiat ja toitu arvestamata püsima alla 1% ning soosima erinevate rahapoliitiliste stiimulite edasist rakendamist.
09.00 Saksamaa jaemüük (juuli)
09.45 Prantsusmaa inflatsioon (august)
09.45 Prantsusmaa tarbijate kulutused (juuli)
10.00 Taani teise kvartali SKP
10.15 FEDi Rosengren esineb Pekingis
10.15 FEDi Evans esineb Pekingis
10.55 Saksamaa tööturu statistika (august)
11.00 Norra teise kvartali SKP
11.00 Itaalia töötuse määr (juuli)
12.00 Itaalia inflatsioon (august)
12.00 Eurotsooni töötuse määr (juuli)
12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (august)
15.00 FEDi Kashkari esineb
15.00 Brasiilia teise kvartali SKP
15.15 USA ADP tööturu küsitlus (august)
15.30 Kanada teise kvartali SKP
16.45 USA Chicago töötleva tööstuse PMI (august)
17.00 USA majade pooleliolevad müügitehingud (juuli)
17.30 USA toornafta varude raport (26. august) -
Saksamaa jaemüük osutus juulis oodatust tugevamaks, kerkides MoM 1,7% (prog 0,5%), kuigi seda mõnevõrra nõrgemaks korrigeeritud võrdlusbaasi pealt (juunis kahanes müük -0,1% asemel -0,6%). Mullusega võrreldes kahanes hooajaliselt korrigeerimata jaemüük -1,5%.
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Vastupidiselt paljude kartustele, et Brexiti referendumi järel võib Briti kinnisvaraturul näha suuremat korrektsiooni, siis täna avaldatud Nationwide staistika kohaselt kiirenes Suurbritannias majade hinnatõus augustis 5,6%ni juuli 5,2% pealt. Siiski näib hindasid toetavat pakkumise suurem langus võrreldes nõudlusega.
Nationwide: “The pick up in price growth is somewhat at odds with signs that housing market activity has slowed in recent months. New buyer enquiries have softened as a result of the introduction of additional stamp duty on second homes in April and the uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell to an eighteen-month low in July.
“However, the decline in demand appears to have been matched by weakness on the supply side of the market. Surveyors report that instructions to sell have also declined and the stock of properties on the market remains close to thirty-year lows. This helps to explain why the pace of house price growth has remained broadly stable. -
Prantsusmaa tarbijate kuludused kahanesid juulis MoM -0,2% pärast -0,8% langust juunis, osutudes analüütikute oodatud +0,3% nõrgemaks. Mullusega võrreldes kasvasid kulutused 0,5% vs oodatud 1,1%.
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Bostoni FEDi president ja FOMC hääletav liige Eric Rosengren, on varasemalt soosinud madalaid intressimäärasid, kuid viimasel ajal hakanud tähelepanu juhtima võimalikele negatiivsetele tagajärgedele, keskendudes täna kommertskinnisvarale
*With U.S. likely to reach central bank’s inflation/employment goals “relatively soon,” keeping rates low for long “is not without risks,” Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren said, citing rising commercial real estate values.
* “Investors may be engaged in excessive risk-taking” in commercial property; sector could set off events that threaten financial stability, Rosengren said in text of remarks being delivered Wed. in Beijing
* While commercial real estate alone wouldn’t be enough to trigger financial stability problems, widespread declines in prices could ripple through financial sector and lead to significantly tighter credit for many borrowers
* Revaluation of commercial real estate during a downturn could make a recession worse than if Fed had raised rates more rapidly
* “Somewhat faster move to rate normalization” may delay how quickly Fed reaches dual mandate, yet it could also reduce risk of a “larger divergence” from mandate in next downturn
* Firms and households faced with long periods of low returns may react by “reaching for yield,” and would be exposed to greater losses in event of a large shock -
Saksamaa töötute arv kahanes augustis oodatud nelja tuhande asemel -7 tuhande võrra, töötuse määr püsis 6,1% peal
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Itaalia töötuse määr alanes juulis 0,2pp võrra 11,4%le, jäädes ajalooliselt jätkuvalt väga kõrgeks. Noorte seas tööpuudus 39,2%, mis on kõrgeim alates 2015.a augustist.
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Chicago Fedi presidendi Charles Evans (FOMC hääletav liige 2017.a) argumenteerib intressimäära madalal tasemel hoidmise kasuks
* Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans said there’s good reason to believe “we are in a protracted period of low equilibrium real interest rates,” and that “lower-for-longer” rate scenario is taking deeper hold among businesses and investors.
* Rates outlook “is vastly more complicated today,” Evans said in text of remarks for panel in Beijing Wed.; analysis by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers of a “secular stagnation” is standing “test of time”
* Low-growth, low-rate world presents “difficult situation”; addressing downside shocks near zero lower bound “is much, much harder than if we had a comfortable buffer”; must be “attuned” to difficulties in delivering additional accommodation if needed
* Fed policy appears to be less expansionary now
* Risk of overshooting 2% inflation objective is reduced, and likelihood of reaching that target is smaller, than monetary policy rules imply
* U.S. central bank “could normalize policy much faster than currently envisioned and still keep the pace
gradual enough to avoid a disorderly change in financial conditions”
* Enormous worldwide demand for safe assets is likely to help keep mkt rates low “for quite a while” in U.S., advanced countries
* “Lower-for-longer” rate scenarios are being built into business plans
* Investors are reassessing yield curve
* Issuers of high-quality corporate debt are finding mkts “receptive” to offerings, with new issues “routinely being oversubscribed”
* Given expectations of low-for-long rates, tightening would likely be seen by investors as “simply flattening the yield curve,” rather than leading to substantially higher long-term rates
* Scenario involving protracted period of low equilibrium real rates suggests fewer financial stability concerns than if low long-term rates were being driven solely by unusual declines in term premia
* Even so, “need to remain on guard” for mkt vulnerabilities if analysis turns out wrong
* Negative shocks are more likely to bring economies to effective lower bound on rates, where monetary policy is less efficient at mitigating headwinds and boosting activity
* Demographics playing “essential” role in contributing to lower long-run growth; in addition, underlying trends in “total factor” productivity growth don’t look good -
eurotsooni töötuse määr püsis juulis 10,1% peal vs oodatud 10,0%. Alusinfaltsioon aeglustus esialgsel hinnangul augustis -0,1pp võrra 0,8% peale (valge) ning finantsturgudel ei oodata vaatamata keskpanga püüdlustele pikemas perspektiivis ka selle kiirenemist (kollane)
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ADP küsitluse järgi loodi USA erasektoris augustis 177 tuhat töökohta (oodati 175 tuhat), mille põhjal ei tohiks suuremat negatiivset üllatust reedel tulla
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UPGRADES:
* Kosmos Energy (KOS) raised to outperform at RBC Capital
* Mettler-Toledo (MTD) raised to buy at BofAML
* Pure Storage (PSTG) raised to outperform at Oppenheimer
* Ritchie Bros. (RBA) raised to neutral at BofAML
* Santander (SAN) raised to buy vs hold at Deutsche Bank
DOWNGRADES:
* Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) cut to hold at Stifel
* First Solar (FSLR) cut to hold at Argus
* G-III Apparel (GIII) cut to sell at Stifel
* Palo Alto Networks (PANW) cut to outperform at Raymond James
* Parkway Properties (PPS) cut to market perform at Raymond James
* Quest Diagnostics (DGX) cut to neutral at Mizuho Securities
* Stewart Information (STC) cut to sell at Janney
* Under Armour (UA) cut to hold at Argus
INITIATIONS:
* Athenahealth (ATHN) resumed hold at Stifel
* Cerner (CERN) resumed hold at Stifel
* Cimarex Energy (XEC) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
* First Data (FDC) rated new buy at Jefferies
* Juno (JUNO) rated new sell at BTIG, PT $23
* Kite Pharma (KITE) rated new neutral at BTIG -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
CCUR +11.3%, CHS +5.8%, VEEV +4.5%, TRR +3.5%, OOMA +1.9%, BOBE +1.8%, SFL +0.9%
M&A news:
ININ +5.6% (to be acquired by Genesys for $60.50/share in cash, or approximately $1.4 bln)
Select EU financial related names showing strength:
CS +3.8%, BCS +2.6%, RBS +2.1%, HSBC +2%, BBVA +1.5%, LYG +1.3%
Other news:
FELP +8.5% (Completed its out-of-court restructuring of more than $1.4 bln in indebtedness)
RXDX +7.3% (announces FDA approval of an investigational device exemption for its RNA-based companion diagnostic, next-generation sequencing assay)
GSAT +5.9% (Signed a strategic agreement with Carmanah Technologies)
AEG +4.3% (still checking)
DB +3.1% (Reports Deutsche Bank was in discussions with Commerzbank (CRZBY) over possible merger, according to Manager Magazine, but CEO dismissed report on CNBC)
ORAN +3.1% (in sympathy with peer Bouygues SA which reported better than expected earnings overnight), CLVS +2.4% (Amended its license agreement with Pfizer (PFE))
WB +2% (Weibo shareholder SINA Corp (SINA) Board authorizes the distribution of Weibo shares on a pro rata basis; SINA decreases stake in co to 51% from 54%)
PSG +1.5% (Announced that it has executed amendments with its lenders, extending the deadline for filing its annual report on Form 10-K; also disclosed that it had hired Centerview Partners to review and evaluate strategic alternatives)
Analyst comments:
APPS +5.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann)
PSTG +2.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
MOMO +2.6% (initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan)
SAN +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
BITA +2.2% (resumed with a Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
YY +1.9% (initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
AVAV -14.3%, HRB -6.5%, FRO -6.5%, CAL -6.4%, PANW -4.9%, PRCP -1.2%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
DRD -3.4%, SBGL -3.2%, BHP -2.4%, BBL -2.3%, RIO -1.4%, FCX -0.9%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: PDS -2.7%, WLL -1.3%, SSL -1.3%, RDS.A -0.8%
Other news:
ATOS -27.8% (prices 1.15 mln common stock offering at $2.50/share)
MDCO -6.9% (Provided an update on its Dyslipidemia programs; the pre-defined, upper statistical boundary for efficacy in the MILANO-PILOT study of MDCO-216, which permits early termination of the study by the Company, was not met)
SAEX -4.7% (Filed for an offering of 3.08 mln shares of common stock on behalf of selling shareholders)
PRXL -3.3% (Filed to delay its Form 10-K following receipt of report of an incident of misappropriation of corporate funds by an employee in one of the Company's international operations)
CYCC -3.2% (Updated on the status of its at-the-market issuance program, disclosed a plan to file an additional prospectus)
HAIN -1.4% (files to delay Form 10-K, does not anticipate filing the Form within the fifteen-day period provided)
AZN -1.4% (agrees to pay $5.52 mln to the SEC for failing to devise and maintain a sufficient system of internal accounting controls)
Analyst comments:
JUNO -2.3% (initiated with a Sell at BTIG Research)
FSLR -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)
UA -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)
GIII -0.5% (downgraded to Sell at Stifel)
Briefing.com -
Brasiilia sisemajanduse kogutoodang oli üheksandat kvartalit järjest languses, kuid -3,8% näol (oodati -3,7%) kahanemine mõnevõrra pehmenes
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Nagu paljud teised USA regionaalsed töötleva tööstuse PMId, osutus nõrgemaks ka Chicago näitaja
US Chicago PMI Aug Confirmed At 51.5 (est 54; prev 55.8)
