Börsipäev 12. september
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Aktsiaturgude suhteliselt kõrge valuatsioon, augusti algusest nõrgenenud USA majandusnäitajad ning lisaks ebamäärasus intressimäära tõstmise osas raputas reedel lõpuks turuosaliste kindlustunnet, põhjustades S&P 500 indeksi suurima languse alates juuni lõpust (-2,45%). Reedene müügisurve oli nõnda jõuline, et viis S&P 500 indeksi juba ühe päevaga lühiajaliselt ülemüüdud taseme lähedale. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 enne sulguda -1,1% punases, jättes terve nädala kaotuseks -1,4%.
FEDi ametnikud on nädalaid kõnelenud intressimäära tõstmise suurenenud võimalusest septembri istungil, sh tõi seda 26. augustil Jackson Hole’is välja ka Janet Yellen, kuid sellele vaatamata pole investorid hinnanud sündmust kuigi tõenäoliseks.
Reedese languse üheks võimalikus põhjuseks võis olla seik, et reedel liitusid intressimära tõstmist pooldavate FOMC liikmetega veel Bostoni FEDi president Eric Rosengren ning Daniel Tarullo. Esimese sõnul on FED aastaid madalate intressimääradega tööpuuduse vastu võidelnud aga nüüd, kui tööturul on lõtk kahanenud ning palgad mõõdukalt kasvamas, tuleks keskpangal suunata oma fookus intressimäära tõstmisele. Rosengreni sõnul võib rahapoliitika normaliseerimisega liialt kaua oodates riskida majandus ülekuumenemise ning finantsstabiilsuse vähenemisega.
FOMC hääletava liikme Daniel Tarullo sõnul tekitavad värskemad majandusnäitajad küll küsimusi ning inflatsiooni osas tahaks ta saada kinnitust, et see on liikumas 2% juurde, kuid teisalt võib intressimäära hoidmine madalal tasemel põhjustada üleliigset laenamist ning rahapoliitiliste otsuste langetamisel ei tohiks liigselt keskenduda tagasivaatavatele andmetele, mistõttu ei välista ta tänavu intressimäära kergitamist.
Huvitava asjaoluna ei liigutanud kahe FEDi esindaja esinemine ning lisaks aktsiaturgude tugev langus futuuride järgi väga oluliselt investorite hinnangut intressimäära tõstmise tõenäosusele FOMC septembri istungil, kerkides reedel vaid kahe protsendipunkti võrra 30% peale (detsembri oma liikus 58,5%lt 60,4%le).
Majandusuudiste osas algab nädal suhteliselt vaikselt ning investorite fookus langeb rohkem kolmele FEDi ametnikule, kes on täna viimasteks esinejateks enne FOMC 20-21. septembri istungit.
15.05 FEDi Lockhart esineb
20.00 FEDi Kashkari esineb
20.15 FEDi Brainard esineb -
FED'S LOCKHART: CIRCUMSTANCES CALL FOR 'LIVELY' HIKE TALK
LOCKHART: SUFFICIENT ECON MOMENTUM TO REACH GOALS IN MED-TERM
LOCKHART: ECONOMIC GROWTH CHUGGING ALONG, NOT STALLING OUT
LOCKHART: SEE FEW RECENT WEAK ECONOMIC REPORTS, INCLUDING ISM
LOCKHART: ECON EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE FUELED BY CONS SPNDG
LOCKHART: SEES SLOWDOWN IN MO JOB GROWTH AS APPROACH FULL EMPL
LOCKHART SAYS CONTACTS WITH BUSINESS COMMUNITY INDICATE CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT WILL INFLUENCE HIS POLICY VIEW
LOCKHART SAYS LACK OF PROGRESS ON INFLATION REMAINS "AWKWARD" PIECE OF FED'S PUZZLE BUT IS CONFIDENT IT WILL INCREASE AS LABOR MARKETS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE -
Lael Brainard ei kiirustaks intressimäära tõstmisega
FED'S BRAINARD CALLS FOR PRUDENCE IN REMOVING ACCOMMODATION
BRAINARD: CASE TO TIGHTEN POL PREEMPTIVELY 'LESS COMPELLING'
BRAINARD: INFL EXPECTATIONS MAY HAVE SOFTENED ON THE DOWNSIDE
BRAINARD: LABOR MKT PROGRESS CAME WITH EVIDENCE OF MORE SLACK
BRAINARD:CAN'T RULE OUT ESTIMATE OF EVEN LOWER NATL UNEMP RATE -
Ajaloo ja järjepidevuse huvides:
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: N/A
M&A news:
RPTP +19.9% (to be acquired by Horizon Pharma (HZNP) for $9.00/share, for an implied fully diluted equity value of ~$800 million)
POT +4.4% (Potash and Agrium (AGU) announce $36 bln merger of equals)
TRNC +3% (TRNC and Gannett (GCI) are in 'active' discussions, according to Bloomberg sources)
Other news:
CUR +75% (announces private placement of common stock and convertible preferred stock for gross proceeds of $20 mln)
NVGN +18.6% (receives confirmation from the FDA that the IND application for Cantrixil has been successfully opened)
CLSN +14.2% (announces NIH analysis concluded that increased burn time per tumor volume substantially improved survival in patients treated with ThermoDox)
CTRV +11.2% (presents new preclinical data profiling the 'robust' anti-HBV activity of its CRV431)
REXX +9.1% (provides an update on its Appalachian Basin operations, currently drilling second of four wells on the Vaughn pad for Dec 2016 sales, expects Q3 production to be at the high end of previously announced guidance)
PRGO +4.5% (Activist investor Starboard is said to have accumulated a near 5% stake, will push for the company to hire advisors to help it focus on its core assets, according to the WSJ)
CEL +2.7% (updates on its proposed Golan Teleco purchase; co to allow Golan Telecom (as an exception to its 'no shop' obligation) to conduct negotiations with two third parties)
NVO +2% (Barron's profiles positive view on Novo Nordisk)
SHPG +1.5% (likely in sympathy with upgrades to peers AZN and NVO)
OPTT +1.4% (may be related to news of gov't contract on Friday)
Analyst comments:
P +4.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust)
NVO +2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
AZN +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: N/A
M&A news:
PX -1.7% (Praxair and Linde (LNAGF) confirm break off preliminary merger talks)
HPQ -0.9% (HP to acquire Samsung's (SSNLF) printer business for $1.05 bln)
Select EU financial related names showing weakness:
DB -3.1%, RBS -3%, LYG -2.8%, BCS -2.3%, BBVA -2.2%, HSBC -1.9%, CS -1.7%, ING -1.5%
Select China related names showing weakness with Shanghai down 2% overnight:
MOMO -6.2%, YY -4.1%, WB -2.9%, SINA -2.8%, JD -2.3%, BIDU -1.7%, BABA -1.7%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
BBL -3.9%, AG -3.4%, BHP -3.1%, CLF -2.9%, FCX -2.7%, RIO -2.1%, MT -1.9%, X -1.6%, SAND -1.5%, SAND -1.5%, GDX -1.5%, GG -1.4%, SLV -1.2%, HL -1.2%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness:
APC -2%, WLL -2%, CHK -1.6%, SDRL -1.3%, TOT -1.1%
Other news:
GERN -28% (The co will provide an update on the imetelstat Phase 2 trial in myelofibrosis and Phase 2/3 trial in myelodysplastic syndromes)
AMRN -12.3% (announces interim efficacy analysis for the REDUCE-IT)
QGEN -2% (provides statement regarding preliminary injunction; confirms intent to defend its US IP position)
AAL -1.7% (reports August 2016 traffic), YHOO -1.5% (likely in sympathy with BABA)
AMD -1.2% (tenders up to $1,035 mln for its outstanding 6.75% Senior Notes due 2019, 7.75% Senior Notes due 2020, 7.50% Senior Notes due 2022 and 7.00% Senior Notes due 2024)
RH -1% (pulling back following Friday's advance post earnings)
Analyst comments:
SALE -6.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
RUBI -5% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
TRUE -4.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
CHRW -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays)
OXY -1.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
TGT -1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen)
