Börsipäev 6. oktoober
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Ehkki rahapoliitilise toe eemaldamine on olnud viimastel päevadel turuosaliste peamiseks mureallikaks ning eilsed USA majandusnäitajad pigem rääkisid intressimäära tõstmise kasuks, suutis S&P 500 indeks lõpetada 0,4% kõrgemal, millele võis abiks olla septembri kukkumise järel suhteliselt neutraalseks muutunud turusentiment. Euroopas suutis Stoxx 600 osaliselt taastuda hommikusest langusest, vähendades kaotust päeva peale -0,6%ni.
Kui võtta erinevate sektorite septembrikuu PMI indeksid globaalselt kokku, siis JPMorgani kohaselt tõusis maailma koondindeks 0,3 punkti võrra 51,7 punktile, märkides maailmamajanduse kõrgeimat aktiivsust viimase kaheksa kuu jooksul. Pikaajalise keskmisega võrreldes püsib kasv aga jätkuvalt tagasihoidlikuna.
PMI indeksite järgi aeglustus kasv eurotsoonis mõnevõrra, kui Prantsusmaa erasektori hoogsam aktiivsus ei suutnud kompenseerida aeglasemat kasvu Saksamaal, Itaalias ja Hispaanias. Ühendriikide teenindussektori ISM indeks hüppas septembris 51,4 punkti pealt 57,1 punktile (oodati 53,0), mis oli ühe kuu suurim tõus ning viitab sellele, et augustikuu makro osutus pehmeks vaid ajutiselt. Teenindussektori uute tellimuste indeks kerkis 51,4 punktilt 60,0 punktile ning tööhõive 50,7 punktilt 57,2 punktile, mis lubab oodata reedel ka tööturu raporti paranemist. ADP küsitluse järgi loodi septembris küll oodatust vähem töökohtasid (154 tuhat vs prognoositud 165 tuhat ning 175 tuhat augustis), kuid viimane on tänavu rohkem alahinnanud kui ülehinnanud tegelikku numbrit.
FEDi asepresidendi Stanley Fischeri sõnul jätavad globaalselt väga madalaks muutunud intressimäärad ukse avatuks majandusšokkidele ning võivad kahjustada finantsstabiilsust. Kui intressimäära loomulik tase muutub madalaks, võib majandus sattuda suurema tõenäosusega likviidsuslõksu ning tavapärased rahapoliitilised meetmed muutuvad sellises olukorras ebaefektiivseks. Tema hinnangul aga ei viita praegu märgid sellele, et finantsstabiilsus oleks madalate määrade tõttu märkimisväärsete riskide ette sattunud.
Tänase börsipäeva fookuses saavad olema Saksamaa augustikuu tehaste tellimused, Euroopa Keskpanga septembri istungi protokoll ja USA möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused.
09.00 Saksamaa tehaste tellimused (august)
10.30 Rootsi majade keskmine hind (september)
14.30 Euroopa Keskpanga istungi protokoll
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused -
Saksamaa tehaste tellimused, mis kipub olema suhteliselt volatiilne statistika, kerkisid augustis MoM 1,0%, ületades konsensuse 0,3% ootust (juuli 0,2% kasv revideeriti 0,3% peale). Mullusega võrreldes tähendas see tellimuste 2,1% suurenemist (oodati 1,6%)
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Citi tõstab täna Euroopa pankade soovitust, kuna viimased pole USA konkurentide suhtes kunagi nõnda odavad olnud ning investorid ei võta arvesse riskide vähenemist.
* European banks have never traded this cheap versus U.S. banks, European bank credit and equity gap are at system risk wides, Citi says in note.
* Says reduction in risks needed for Europe banks to move from value trap to value trade; that is happening, while fundamental improvements are condition to be a momentum trade
* European banks better priced for disappointments, not priced for reducing risks
* Sector upgraded to overweight vs neutral; Telecoms cut to neutral, still favored over utilities
* Screens for shares to buy; attractive stocks include “EM” banks, quality banks vs market, barbell, dividend 4-ways, Italian banks
* Notes stocks such as BBVA, StanChart, Danske, KBC, Intesa, BNP, ING “show well on various of these,” are buy-rated
* Stays cautious on U.K. domestic banks; also still likes Bank proxies such as autos -
Rootsi majade keskmine hind oli septembris 2,828mln SEK, mis märkis aastatagusega võrreldes 13% kasvu
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easyjet troonib pärast kasumihoiatust täna langejate nimekirja
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USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused liiguvad aprillis saavutatud tsükli põhja suunas (248K)
US Initial Jobless Claims (1/Oct): 249k (est 256k, prev 254k) -
UPGRADES:
* AutoNation (AN) raised to neutral at Goldman
* Big 5 Sporting (BGFV) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank
* Ionis Pharma (IONS) raised to outperform at BMO
* KLA-Tencor (KLAC) raised to buy at B. Riley
* PNC (PNC) raised to market perform at Raymond James
* United Community Banks (UCBI) raised to strong buy at Raymond James
* Zumiez (ZUMZ) raised to buy at B Riley
DOWNGRADES:
* Alnylam (ALNY) cut to equalweight at Barclays
* Cut to market perform at Leerink
* American Express (AXP) cut to reduce at Nomura
* BancorpSouth (BXS) cut to underperform at Raymond James
* BorgWarner (BWA) cut to neutral at Goldman
* HSN (HSNI) cut to neutral at Citi
* Imperva (IMPV) cut to neutral at DA Davidson
* Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) cut to neutral at UBS
* Lear (LEA) cut to sell at Goldman
* Lowe’s (LOW) cut to neutral at Cleveland
* Park Sterling (PSTB) cut to market perform at Raymond James
* Regions Financial (RF) cut to outperform at Raymond James
* Smith & Wesson (SWHC) cut to hold at Wunderlich
* Tesla (TSLA) cut to neutral at Goldman
* WFBI (WFBI) cut to market perform at Raymond James
* Zions Banc (ZION) cut to market perform at Raymond James
INITIATIONS:
* Aerovironment (AVAV) rated new neutral at Baird
* Allscripts (MDRX) rated new buy at UBS
* AmerisourceBergen (ABC) rated new neutral at UBS
* Athenahealth (ATHN) rated new buy at UBS, PT $147
* B/E Aero (BEAV) rated new outperform at Baird
* Boeing (BA) rated new outperform at Baird
* Broadcom (AVGO) rated new market perform at Wells Fargo
* Callon Petroleum (CPE) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* Cardinal Health (CAH) rated new neutral at UBS
* Carrizo Oil (CRZO) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* Cbre (CBG) rated new outperform at Wedbush
* Cerner (CERN) rated new neutral at UBS
* Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) rated new neutral at Wedbush
* Core Laboratories (CLB) rated new buy at DA Davidson
* CRH Medical Corp (CRH CN) rated new outperform at RBC Capital
* CVS Health (CVS) rated new buy at UBS, PT $107
* Cytodyn (CYDY) rated new buy at Rodman & Renshaw, PT $1.60
* Embraer (ERJ) rated new overweight at JPMorgan
* Entellus Medical (ENTL) rated new buy at Deutsche Bank, PT $26
* Express Scripts (ESRX) rated new neutral at UBS
* First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) rated new neutral at Piper Jaffray
* Flir (FLIR) rated new neutral at Baird
* Forum Energy (FET) rated new buy at DA Davidson
* General Dynamics (GD) rated new outperform at Baird
* Gigamon (GIMO) rated new market perform at JMP
* Great Western Banc (GWB) rated new neutral at Piper Jaffray, PT $35
* Helix Energy (HLX) rated new buy at DA Davidson
* Henry Schein (HSIC) rated new buy at UBS
* Honeywell (HON) rated new outperform at Baird
* Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) rated new overweight at Piper Jaffray
* Intersect ENT (XENT) rated new hold at Deutsche Bank
* Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) rated new neutral at Wedbush
* L-3 (LLL) rated new outperform at Baird
* Lockheed (LMT) rated new outperform at Baird
* Matador Resources (MTDR) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* McKesson (MCK) rated new neutral at UBS
* Mercury Systems (MRCY) rated new outperform at Baird
* New Residential (NRZ) rated new outperform at Wedbush
* Northrop Grumman (NOC) rated new outperform at Baird
* Owens & Minor (OMI) rated new sell at UBS
* Par Pacific (PARR) rated new buy at Mizuho
* Parker Drilling (PKD) rated new buy at DA Davidson
* Patterson Cos (PDCO) rated new neutral at UBS
* PDC Energy (PDCE) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* Pennymac Mortgage (PMT) rated new neutral at Wedbush
* Pioneer Natural (PXD) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* PNC (PNC) rated new neutral at UBS
* Premier (PINC) rated new neutral at UBS
* QCR Holdings (QCRH) rated new overweight at Piper Jaffray
* QEP (QEP) rated new buy at Mizuho
* Rated new neutral at Goldman
* Quality Systems (QSII) rated new sell at UBS
* Raytheon (RTN) rated new outperform at Baird
* Realogy Holdings Corp (RLGY) rated new neutral at Wedbush
* Rockwell Collins (COL) rated new neutral at Baird
* Southwestern Energy (SWN) rated new buy at Mizuho
* Spirit Aero (SPR) rated new outperform at Baird
* TCF Financial (TCB) rated new neutral at Piper Jaffray
* Textron (TXT) rated new outperform at Baird
* Trade Desk (TTD) rated new buy at Cantor Fitzgerald
* Transdigm (TDG) rated new outperform at Baird
* Triumph Group (TGI) rated new underperform at Baird
* Tubemogul Inc (TUBE) rated new buy at B. Riley
* United Technologies (UTX) rated new neutral at Baird
* Viper Energy Partners (VNOM) rated new neutral at Mizuho
* Walgreens (WBA) rated new buy at UBS
* Walker & Dunlop (WD) rated new neutral at Wedbush, PT $26.75 -
Eilse oodatust tugevama ISM näitaja ning tänaste töötu abiraha taotluste baasil on mõnevõrra kerkinud tõenäoosus, et intressimäära kergitatakse novembris, kuigi 26% juures kujuneks selline otsus turgude jaoks jätkuvalt üllatuseks.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
QTM +20.1%
ALQA +14.3%, (also to acquire the business of Soluble Systems)
ZUMZ +10.8%, (Zumiez reports September same store sales +6.3% vs -1.8% September last year and -1.5% last month; raising Q3 EPS and sales guidance above consensus)
DLGNF +4.3%
M&A news:
PHMD +47% (PhotoMedex to sell its consumer products business to ICTV Brands for $9.5 mln)
CRM +2.5% (likely to be remainer co interested in offer for TWTR)
Other news:
JAGX +31% (signs a non-binding LOI with Napo Pharma to potentially merge the 2 companies; Aspire Capital Fund purchases 348,601 shares of Jaguar common stock at $2.28/share)
AUPH +23.7% (announces 24-week data in all 10 patients from the AURION study)
SCYX +14.4% (announces complete results from two phase 2 Studies of Oral SCY-078 in patients with candida spp. infections; study results confirm overall antifungal activity of oral SCY-078 in patients with candida infections)
CATB +7% (presents data from Part A of the MoveDMD trial of edasalonexent for the treatment of DMD)
HIMX +3.7% (higher on Dialog Semi upside sales guidance)
RDHL +3.7% (provides progress update on RHB-104 phase III Crohn's disease program and introduces option for early stop for success in Q2/2017)
MET +3.3% ( confirms that Brighthouse Financial filed a Registration Statement on Form 10 with the SEC)
LRCX +3.2% (higher on Dialog Semi upside sales guidance)
CHK +2.2% (recent transactions significantly improve capital structure)
JD +1.9% (Wal-Mart increases passive stake)
Analyst comments:
YGE +4.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Axiom Capital)
JASO +3.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Axiom Capital)
BGFV +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
CPTA +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
RECN -6.5%, (also Anthony Cherbak announces his retirement as President and Chief Executive Officer due to health considerations)
LXU -3.6%, (LSB Industries lowers Product sales volume outlook for 2016 in some areas including UAN, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, LDAN/HDAN; reports unplanned downtime at its three primary chemical facilities in Q3),
YUM -2.8%
WMT -1.9% (reaffirms FY17 EPS, sees FY18 EPS flat, below estimates)
M&A news:
TWTR -16.2% (reports that Disney and Google won't bid for the company -- Salesforce (CRM) is seemingly the last interested party)
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -4.1%, GFI -3.8%, AG -2.4%, HL -2.3%, ABX -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, NEM -1.7%, SLW -1.6%, AEM -1.6%
Other news:
ALNY -44.6% (to discontinue Revusiran development, says decision does not impact Patisiran or any other RNAi therapeutic program in development )
IDRA -11.9% (commences $50 mln common stock offering)
MDCO -9.1% (updates on the ongoing ORION-1 study of PCSK9si; anticipates that top-line data from Day 180 follow-up for up to 200 patients will be presented at the Late-Breaking Clinical Trial Session)
ARWR -3.6% (ALNY sympathy)
RYAAY -2.3% (down in sympathy w/ peer Easy Jet which posted dissapointing earnings)
IONS -0.7% (ALNY sympathy)
Analyst comments:
AXP -1.3% (downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura)
LOW -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Cleveland Research)
TSLA -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt lowered to $185 from $240)
SWHC -3.4% (downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich)
SNN -3.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg)
Briefing.com -
CONSTANCIO: NO FOUNDATION TO ALL THE RUMORS ABOUT FUTURE OF QE
CONSTANCIO: COUNCIL HASN'T DISCUSSED ANYTHING ON QE TIMETABLE
CONSTANCIO: QE TO GO ON UNTIL INFLATION BACK ON PATH TO TARGET
CONSTANCIO: ON THE WHOLE, OUR BASELINE SCENARIO MATERIALIZING
