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Börsipäev 17. oktoober

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  • Põrge neljapäevase sessiooni põhjast aitas reedel ostjate motivatsiooni mõnda aega toetada, kuid isu säilitamine on muutunud keeruliseks keskkonnas, kus FED sihib kõrgemaid intressimäärasid aga majandusprognoose tuuakse allapoole. 0,7% plussis avanenud S&P 500 sulgus reedel lõpuks ilma muutuseta, mis jättis indeksi terve nädala lõikes protsendi jagu miinusesse. Euroopas jõudis Stoxx 600 lõpetada reedel 1,3% võiduga ning pani nädalale punkti 0,1% plussiga.

    USA jaemüük paranes septembris 0,6% pärast -0,2% langust augustis, märkides mullusega võrreldes 2,7% kasvu. Kui eemaldada statistikast autod, kütus, ehitusmaterjalid ning toit (antud tasandil peaks jaemüük kõige paremini edasi andma tarbimise komponenti SKPs), kasvas jaemüük 0,1% pärast -0,1% langust augustis, valmistades pettumuse analüütikutele, kes prognoosisid 0,4% tõusu.

    Septembri jaemüügi väikesest paranemisest hoolimata kujuneb analüütikute kohaselt tarbimise kasv kolmandas kvartalis aeglasemaks, kui teises kvartalis registreeritud 4,3% tempo. Konkreetsemalt kärpis Atlanta FED värskemate numbrite valguses kolmanda kvartali isikliku tarbimise kasvuootust 2,9% pealt 2,6%le, mis tähendas ka kogu SKP prognoosi langetamist 1,9%le. Alles augusti lõpus ootas Atlanta FED USA majanduse 3,5% kvartaalset annualiseeritud kasvu.

    Paralleelselt avaldatud Michigani ülikooli küsitlus näitas, et USA tarbijad on muutunud oktoobris ebakindlamaks (indeks langes 91,2 punktilt 87,9 punktile ehk madalaimale tasemele rohkem kui aasta jooksul), mida ülikooli esindaja sõnul tingis valimistega seotud määramatus just madalama sissetulekuga tarbijate seas.

    Uus nädal algab majandusuudiste osas rahulikult, kui laual on vaid USA septembrikuu tööstustoodang ning töötleva tööstuse oktoobrikuu esimene regionaalne PMI (NY). Ülejäänud nädal pakub aga palju põnevat, sh selgub Hiina kolmanda kvartali SKP ja septembri konjunktuur (kolmapäeval), toimub Euroopa Keskpanga istung (konsensus muutust intressimääras ja varade ostuprogrammis ei oota) ning loomulikult kogub tuure USA ettevõtete kolmanda kvartali tulemuste avaldamine, kui sel nädalal on oodata 91 S&P 500 firma raportit.

    12.00 eurotsooni inflatsioon (septembri lõplik)
    15.30 USA NY FEDi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks (oktoober)
    16.15 USA tööstustoodang (september)
    19.15 FEDi asepresident Stanley Fischer esineb
  • Üks põhjus, miks paljude arvates on EKP detsembri istungil QE pikendamine või suurendamine tõenäolisem, tuleneb sellest, et siis selguvad ka värsked majandusprognoosid, mis annaksid vajadusel õigustuse majandust täiendavalt stimuleerida

  • FOMC septembri otsuse järel kiirustasid osad majad S&P 500 aastalõpu targetit tõstma, sh BMO, kes jääb vaatamata viimase nädala volatiilsusele oma arvamusele kindlaks

    Several weeks ago we decided to increase our 2016 year-end S&P 500 price target to 2,250 from 2,100 when the Fed decided to keep its target rate unchanged at its September FOMC meeting, since that decision significantly altered the assumptions we made in our initial 2016 base case scenario. Unfortunately, the S&P 500 has shed about 45 points since then and naturally we have received some questions from clients about whether or not we acted too hastily in making the change. To reiterate, we continue to believe that investors remain hyper-focused on the timing of any Fed action, and with a rate hike seemingly off the table until at least December, we strongly believe stocks will continue 2016’s pattern and drift higher into year-end, particularly considering trends in other data points that appear to support a move higher…
    …More specifically, trends in leading series, such as the ECRI Weekly Leading Index, have jumped sharply and this is important because we found that trends in this data point typically lead S&P 500 performance by three months. This would suggest large gains during 4Q, assuming the traditional relationship holds up.
  • Euroala septembri inflatsioon kinnitati 0,4% peal ning alusinflatsioon 0,8% peal. Nafta hind (joonisel kollasega) peaks baasefektiga hoidma THId tõusuteel.

  • Bank of America prelim Q3 $0.41 vs $0.34 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $21.6 bln vs $21.04 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • New York juhatab töötleva tööstuse jaoks oktoobri sisse aktiivsuse kiirema langusega

    US Empire Manufacturing Index Oct: -6.80 (est 1.00; prev -1.99)

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    HAS +5.1%, BAC +1.4%

    M&A news:
    ALJ +12.4% (confirms they received an offer from Delek US Holdings (DK) to acquire all of the co's outstanding shares of common stock at a fixed exchange ratio of 0.44 shares of DK common stock for each outstanding share of ALJ)
    QSII +6.5% (report co hired a bank, is considering a sale)
    SVU +4.4% (to sell its Save-A-Lot business to Onex Corporation for $1.365 bln in cash)
    VA +3.3% (reports indicate VA/ALK making progress with DoJ on merger)
    STZ +1.5% (to acquire Charles Smith Wines)
    COTY +1.2% (confirms deal to acquire Good Hair Day)
    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MTL +2.1%, HMY +1.7%, DRD +1.6%, GFI +1.2%
    Other news:
    XGTI +21.4% (receives a $200k order from a state police agency located in the Mid-Atlantic region for an Airborne Video Downlink System)
    MSTX +18.8% (announces agreement With Philips (PHG) for supply of adaptive aerosol delivery system for AIR001)
    OMER +15.9% (announces 'positive' data from its Phase 2 clinical trial of OMS721 for the treatment of kidney disorders)
    RLJE +12.5% (RLJ Entertainment and AMC Networks (AMCX) form a strategic partnership for streaming services)
    LPCN +10.5% (announces completion of a Post Action meeting w/ the FDA regarding its NDA for LPCN 12021)
    MNGA +10.5% (enters LOI for 'largest equipment sale to date'; will receive $2.65 mln for its Gasification and Sterilization systems)
    KITE +5.5% (co will announce new solid tumor targets at Investor Day tomorrow)
    XENT +5.4% (announces positive clinical results of pivotal study of RESOLVE in-office steroid releasing implant)
    IBN +5.2% (Bloomberg discusses strength in ICICI (IBN) amid hopes company might soon recover some of its loans related to Essar Group)
    QTNT +5% (announces the completion of private placement of $120 mln 12% senior secured notes due 2023)
    NAT +3.4% (raises Q3 dividend to $0.26/share from $0.25/share prior quarter)
    SDRL +2.9% (Bloomberg discusses strength in ICICI (IBN) amid hopes company might soon recover some of its loans related to Essar Group)
    X +2% (Barron's profiles positive view on US Steel)
    SLGN +1% (commences 'modified Dutch auction' tender offer to purchase up to $250 mln of its common stock)
    ARIA +1% (modestly rebounding following last weeks 17% decline)
    Analyst comments:
    GRPN +5.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Wedbush)
    ELOS +3.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
    AMD +3.4% (upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer)
    TTD +3.3% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup)
    NEM +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
    TCK +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    PSO -9.1%, JBHT -2.5%, ACW -1.6%, LII -0.5%
    Select Gaming stocks showing weakness after 18 Crown Resorts employees that have been detained by Chinese authorities:
    MPEL -5.9%, WYNN -2.5%, LVS -2.4%, MGM -1.7%
    Other news:
    PTCT -20.9% (provides a regulatory update on Translarna for nonsense mutation duchenne muscular dystrophy)
    SPU -8.6% (received Nasdaq delisting determination letter; intends to timely request a hearing before Nasdaq Panel to present plan to regain compliance)
    MHG -3.8% (provides Q3 trading update; lowers Q4 guidance)
    Analyst comments:
    P -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
    LOW -1.2% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman; maintain Buy)
    FCX -1.2% (resumed with a Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
  • USA tööstustoodangu ja töötleva tööstuse toodangu kasv osutus üsna ootuspäraseks

    US Mfg Production (MoM) Sep: 0.20% (est 0.10%; prev rev to -0.50% from -0.4%)
    -Ind. Production (MoM) Sep: 0.10% (est 0.20%; prev rev to -0.50% from -0.4%)
  • Netflix prelim Q3 $0.12 vs $0.05 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.29 bln vs $2.28 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Netflix sees Q4 $0.13 vs $0.08 Capital IQ Consensus

    NFLX tugevad tulemused ja prognoos üle ootuste. Aktsia järelkauplemisel ligi 20% plusspoole.

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