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Börsipäev 25. oktoober

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  • Kui lüüa kokku kõik suuremad ülevõtmisplaanid, mida on viimase nädala jooksul Ühendriikides avalikustatud, tuleb nende väärtuseks kokku üle 200 miljardi dollari. Sarnast mahtu nägime viimati 1999.a, mis aitab tõsta koos oodatust paremate makrouudistega turuosaliste tuju ning kergitas S&P 500 indeksit eile 0,5%. Euroopas alustas Stoxx 600 päeva tugeva tõusuga, kuid sulgus lõpuks ilma muutuseta.

    Oktoobrikuu esmased PMI küsitlused üllatasid positiivselt nii Jaapanis, eurotsoonis kui ka Ühendriikides. Globaalse töötleva tööstuse PMI avaldatakse küll alles novembri alguses, kuid JPMorgani sõnul viitavad arenenud riikide senised numbrid globaalse tootmisindeksi 1,5punktilisele tõusule 53,4 punktile, mis märgiks kõrgeimat taset viimase kahe aasta jooksul. Sellisel tasemel püsides kasvaks globaalse töötleva tööstuse toodang annualiseeritult 3,3%, tublisti rohkem kui keskmiselt 1% viimase pooleteise aasta jooksul.

    FEDi regionaalsetest presidentidest esinenud James Bullard ütles, et intressimäära tõstmine detsembris on kõige tõenäolisem, kuid järgneva kahe-kolme aasta jooksul oluliselt kõrgemale see tema hinnangul ei liigu. Chicago FEDi president Charles Evans (pole FOMC hääletav liige) ootab kolme intressimäära tõstmist 2017.a lõpuks, kuna tekkimas on inflatsioonisurve.

    San Francisco FEDi avaldatud analüüsi järgi on USA tööturg piisavalt tugev, et hakkama saada töökohtade kasvu aeglustumisega. Analüüsis leiti, et rahvastiku trendide ning tööjõus osalemise määra viimaste arengute valguses piisab sellest, kui uusi töökohasid lisandub 50-110 tuhat ühes kuus (viimase aasta jooksul on USAs loodud keskmiselt 204 tuhat uut töökohta kuus).

    Tänase börsipäeva majandusuudistest väärivad mainimist Prantsusmaa ja Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde indeksid ning USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma kvartalitulemused teiste seas Caterpillar, DuPont, Eli Lilly, Fiat Chrysler, General Motors, Lockheed Martin, Merck, Procter & Gamble, Apple, AT&T.

    09.45 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
    11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodangu müük ja tellimused (august)
    11.00 Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
    16.00 S&P Case-Shilleri majade hinnaindeks (august)
    17.00 USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (oktoober)
    17.00 USA Richmond FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (oktoober)
    19.00 Prantsusmaa töötute arv (september)
    20.00 FEDi Lockhart esineb
  • Oodatud 103 punkti asemel langes Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse kindlustunde indeks oktoobris ühe punkti võrra 102 punktile, mille lähedal on see terve aasta püsinud.
  • Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde paranemine jätkus teist kuud järjest, kui jooksva hinnangu indeks kerkis 114,7 punktilt 115,0 punktile (oodati 114,9) ning järgmise kuue kuu väljavaadet peegeldav indeks 104,5 punktilt 106,1 punktile (oodati 104,5). Mõlemat arvesse võttes kerkis üldine ärikliima indeks 109,5 punktilt 110,5 punktile, viidates sellega kiirenevale SKP kasvule (joonisel on SKP YoY muutus toodud kollasega)
  • Procter & Gamble prelim Q1 $1.03 vs $0.98 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $16.52 bln vs $16.48 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; reaffirms FY17
  • Caterpillar prelim Q3 $0.85 vs $0.76 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $9.16 bln vs $9.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
    Co lowers FY16 guidance, sees EPS of $3.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $3.55; sees FY16 revs of $39.0 bln vs. $40.13 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $40.0-40.5 bln
    Caterpillar preliminary outlook for 2017 is that sales and revenues will not be significantly different than 2016 (consensus EPS slightly higher and rev slightly lower)

    General Motors prelim Q3 $1.72 vs $1.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $42.8 bln vs $37.48 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • Gapping Up:
    In reaction to earnings/guidance:

    CR +8.2%, RMBS +6.8%, SWFT +5.8%, ORAN +5.1%, BHI +4.5%, CLGX +4.3%, RDY +3.7%, KKR +3.6%, BAX +3.2%, KEY +3.1%, VLO +2.9%, UTX +2.7%, ALSN +2.5%, PG +2.3%, UA +2.0%, MRK +1.6%, LMT +1.4%, GM +1.3%
    Select metal/mining names seeing strength amid gains in underlying metals prices:
    HMY +3.3%, CLF +3.2%, MUX +3.1%, GFI +2.7%, VALE +2.6%, RIO +2.4%, BHP +1.6%, GOLD +1.3%, ABX +1.3%, GDX +1.0%, AU +1.0%.
    Other news:
    SAEX +50.3% (received approx $24.4 mln of tax credit certificates from the state of Alaska's Department of Revenue; says received sooner than expected),
    GBT +18.3% (agrees w/ the FDA on the design of its pivotal trial for GBT440 in adults and adolescents with sickle cell disease; expected to begin screening patients by December; decides to discontinue its research and development activities related to GBT18713; Chief Medical Officer Dr. Eleanor Ramos retires),
    EYES +16.2% (announces the first successful implantation and activation of a wireless visual cortical stimulator in a human subject),
    PSTI +11.2% (to sell approx. 16.89 mln shares of common stock at $1.77/share to China-based Innovative Medical Management),
    CWEI +8.0% (Clayton Williams announces agreement to sell Giddings area assets for $400 million; names Patrick Cooke as COO),
    CANF +7.4% (announces agreement with Chong Kun Dang Pharma for the exclusive right to distribute CF102 for the treatment of liver cancer in South Korea for up to $3 mln in upfront/milestone payments, plus a % of royalties on net sales in the low twenties),
    WINT +7.4% (releases data from lung deposition study in non-human primates demonstrating uniform distribution of aerosolized KL4 surfactant in all regions of the lung),
    SYT +1.4% (modest relief following yesterday's weakness)
    BMY +1.3% (announces results from CheckMate-205; primary endpoint of objective response rate was 73% overall, which was consistent across patient subgroups)

    Gapping Down:
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    UA -15%, SONC -13.0%, NLSN -7.4%, EAT -6.3%, PII -6.3.%. WHR -6.1%, JBLU -3.7%, CAT -2.5%, NVS -2.3%, WAT -1.7%, LLY -1.5%, MMM -1.3%.
    Other news:
    DPRX -85.5% (announces that the OneStep-1 and OneStep-2 Phase 3 clinical trials of Locilex in patients with mild infections of diabetic foot ulcers did not meet the primary clinical endpoint standardized wound care),
    FCEL -16.2% (discloses its Beacon Falls Energy Park project was not selected for contract negotiations under the The New England Clean Energy Request for Proposals),
    PLG -10.5% (will raise $40 mln through bought deal financing of 22,230,000 common shares at $1.80/share),
    MTL -10.4% (following Monday's 35% move higher),
    BPL -5.2% (priced upsized offering of 7.75 mln limited partnership units (from 7.5 mln) at $66.05 per LP Unit),
    LULU -3.2% (moving lower on UA comments),
    CRZO -2.0% (prices upsized underwritten public offering of 6 mln shares (from 5 mln) of its common stock for total gross proceeds of approximately $225 mln),
    NKE -1.7% (moving lower on UA comments),
    SKX -1.3% (moving lower on UA comments).
    Analyst comments:
    CALA -20.3% (initiated with a Sell at Citigroup),
    SPN -8.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup),
    CLVS -7.7% (initiated with a Sell at Chardan Capital Markets; tgt $15),
    VFC -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, VFC target lowered to $68 at Telsey Advisory Group following yesterday morning's Q3 earnings).

    Briefing.com

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