LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 17. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA aktsiaturud trotsisid tugevamat dollarit (S&P 500 -0,2%), mis on alates oktoobri algusest kallinenud valuutakorvi suhtes üle 5% ning murdis eile läbi 2015.a tippude, saavutades sellega kõrgeima taseme alates 2003.a. -0,2% võrra lõpetas madalamal ka Stoxx 600 indeks.

    USA tööstustoodang püsis oktoobris muutumatuna pärast -0,2% kuist langust septembris, mis revideeriti 0,1% kasvu pealt madalamaks. Analüütikute 0,2% ootusega võrreldes valmistas tööstustoodang pettumuse, kuid seda peamiselt ilmadest tingitud toodangu languse tõttu kommunaalteenuste sektoris. Töötleva tööstuse toodang paranes teist kuud järjest 0,2%, jäädes marginaalselt nõrgemaks konsensuse prognoositud 0,3%ga võrreldes. Aastatagusega võrreldes kahanes töötleva tööstuse toodang -0,2%, olles viimastel aastatel surve all nii tugevnenud dollari, globaalse majanduse kui ka energiasektoris vähenenud investeeringute tõttu.

    USA töötleva tööstuse toodangu aastane muutus (%)



    USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks jäi novembris püsima 63 punktile vaatamata presidendivalimiste järgselt hüppeliselt tõusnud hüpooteeklaenude intressimääradele. 50st punktist kõrgem näit peegeldab seda, et suurem on ehitajate osakaal, kes hindab turu müügitingimusi heaks. Siiski teatavat muret võib intressimäärade osas peegeldada seik, et ehitajate tuleviku müügiootust peegeldav indeks alanes 71 punkti pealt 69 punktile.



    Tänase päeva üheks peamiseks sündmuseks võiks olla Janet Yelleni esinemine kongressi ees. Kuna intressimäära tõstmist detsembris hindab turg 94% tõenäosuse juures, siis võiks investorite jaoks huvipakkuvam olla Yelleni hinnang Trumpi fiskaalpoliitikale, tugevnevale dollarile ning kuidas need võiksid tuleval aastal intressimäära trajektoori kujundada. Majandusuudistest tulevad täna avaldamisele USAs oktoobris alustatud elamuehitused, väljastatud ehitusload, inflatsioon ning möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused.

    11.30 Suurbritannia jaemüük (oktoober)
    12.00 Eurotsooni inflatsioon (oktoobri lõplik)
    15.00 Janet Yelleni esinemine
    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused (oktoober)
    15.30 USA väljastatud ehitusload (oktoober)
    15.30 USA inflatsioon (oktoober)
    15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
    15.30 USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (november)
    19.30 FEDi Brainard esineb
  • Pullide osakaal kerkis USA väikeinvestorite seas sel nädalal 46,65%ni, mis on kõrgeim alates 2015.a veebruarist. Karude osakaal alanes 29,33%lt 26,57%le.

  • David Rosenbergi arvates on USA majandustsükkel lähenemas pöördepunktile

    The Fed cycle is resuming and as such history says this expansion has no more than two more years of shelf-life — just in time for the mid-term election.
    Not just that, but commercial real estate is traditionally a late-cycle performer and is now about to roll over — see Defaults Rise in Key Sectors of Real Estate on page B1 of the WSJ. Sales are turning down, vacancies are on the rise and default rates are picking up…
    Let’s take a look at the entire market, in fact. The broad NYSE Composite is no higher today than it was 30 months ago, and has not made a new high since May, 2015. The pundits don’t see it, but the bull market ended a year-and-a-half ago and we are now in a transition phase.
    The problem for the equity market isn’t necessarily the visions of so-called Trumponomics per se, but the tightening financial conditions that have occurred before anything has happened — between rising bond yields and a stronger dollar.
  • ELi uute autode registreerimine ühtis oktoorbris eelmise aasta tulemusega, kuid tänavu oli müügipäevasid vähem.
  • Suurbritannia jaemüük kasvas oktoobris autosid ja kütust arvestamata 2,0% võrreldes septembriga, tublisti rohkem kui oodatud 0,4%. Mullusega võrreldes kiirenes kasvutempo 7,6% peale, kui toetava tegurina mõjusid halloween ning külmem ilm.
  • Eurotsooni oktoobrikuu alusinflatsioon kinnitati 0,8% peal, finantsturgude pikaajalised inflatsiooniootused (kollane) on viimase kuuga järsult üles liikunud, mis võib olla tingitud sarnasest likumisest võlakirjade intressides
  • YELLEN SAYS RATE HIKE COULD BE APPROPRIATE `RELATIVELY SOON'
    YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY TO WARRANT ONLY GRADUAL RATE INCREASES
    YELLEN SAYS RISK OF FALLING BEHIND CURVE APPEARS LIMITED
    YELLEN: APPEARS TO BE SCOPE FOR SOME MORE LABOR-MARKET GAINS
    YELLEN CITES SIGNS THAT WAGE GROWTH PACE HAS RISEN RECENTLY
    YELLEN SAYS KEEPING RATES ON HOLD COULD SPUR EXCESS RISK-TAKING
    YELLEN: DELAYING HIKES TOO LONG COULD MEAN TIGHTENING FASTER
  • USA makro oodatust valdavalt parem:

    US Initial Jobless Claims (WoW) 12-Nov: 235K (est 257K; prev 254K)
    US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Nov: 7.6 (est 8; prev 9.7)

    US Building Permits Oct: 1.229M (est 1.198M; prev 1.225M)
    US Housing Starts Oct: 1.323M (est 1.156M; prev 1.047M, rev 1.054M)


    US Core CPI (YoY) Oct: 2.10% (est 2.20%; prev 2.20%)

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    FSLR -11.3%, (Raises 2016 EPS guidance; Initiates 2017 EPS, Revenue, and Shipment Guidance below expectations), CSCO -5%, SSI -4.3%, SPLS -3.7%
    SFS -3.3%, WMT -3%, LB -2.5%, SJM -2.3%, SMRT -1.4%, NJR -1.3%
    Select solar related names showing weakness following FSLR earnings:
    SPWR -6.1%, JASO 3.9%, CSIQ -3.2%, TAN -1.4%, JKS -1.4%, TSL -1.3%,
    Other news:
    VUZI -24.4% (Vuzix receives letter from Intel (INTC) stating that it no longer desires to pursue a strategic relationship with Vuzix; Vuzix says over the last two years, the collaboration work with Intel has not generated material revenue)
    LEI -22.9% (files a Form 424B3 prospectus supplement increasing its prior S-3 offering of common stock on behalf of selling shareholders from 5 mln shares to 6 mln shares)
    SPP -16.8% (prices previously announced underwritten public offering of 6,550,802 common units at $11.00/unit)
    ACRS -9.9% (announces a $65 mln underwritten public offering of common stock)
    TEGP -8.5% (public offering of 8,000,000 Class A shares)
    FOXF -6.2% (announces a 3.5 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock by selling shareholders)
    TTMI -6% (prices an underwritten registered public secondary offering of 12,000,000 shares of its common stock by its largest stockholder Su Sih (BVI) at $11.50/share)
    PFGC -5.4% (files for common stock shelf offering; announces secondary offering of 10 mln shares of common stock by certain stockholders, including affiliates of The Blackstone Group)
    NVTA -5.3% (prices underwritten public offering of 7,333,333 shares of its common stock at $6.00/share)
    PLNT -4.6% ( commences 15 mln common stock offering by selling stockholders)
    STL -3.9% (prices 3.8 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of approx $80.8 mln)
    ZIOP -3.9% (will present data for Ad-RTS-hIL-12 + orally-administered veledimex for recurrent brain cancer)
    REGN -3.6% (Regeneron Pharma and Sanofi (SNY) present interim analysis for Praluent)
    TERP -1.3% (announces extensions until March 2017 to regain Nasdaq compliance; D. E. Shaw affirms 6.7% active stake, says is evaluating various potential transactions with one or both of the Issuer and SunEdison)
    Analyst comments:
    OSK -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill)
    CMG -1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim)
    ATW -0.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup)
    FCX -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)

    Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    ANW +17%, NTAP +11.3%, PLCE +7.3%, BBY +5.7%, MBT +4.7%, JASO +3.6%, GFF +2.9%, (also increases quarterly dividend ), EDAP +1.2%, FLY +0.9%
    M&A news:
    WNR +20.8% (to be acquired by Tesoro (TSO) for $37.30/share, or approximately $6.4 bln)
    UAM +10.2% (to be acquired by WellCare (WCG) for $10/share in cash, or approximately $800 ml)
    LPLA +6.4% (Hearing renewed M&A speculation circulating)
    TREE +2.2% (acquires CompareCards for up to $130 mln)
    Select Shipping related names showing continued strength:
    RLOG +79.2%, DCIX +39.3%, GSL +39%, ESEA +29.7%, NM +25.4%, SB +23.2%, ANW +17%, NNA +10%, SALT +6.9%
    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: CHK +2%, WLL +1.5%, PBR +1.3%, SDRL +1.3%

    Other news:
    GLBS +18.1% (after surging higher another day--closed up ~150%)
    HAIN +12.3% (Hain Celestial independent audit committee review was completed with no evidence of intentional wrongdoing; begun to implement a remediation plan to strengthen its internal controls and organization)
    PLUG +8.1% (signs a cooperative memorandum of understanding with Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co along with a leading Chinese industrial vehicle manufacturer; financial details not disclosed)
    IMMU +6.9% (after seeing late move higher on venBio confirming 9.0% active stake)
    AYTU +4% (publication of clinical data demonstrating the reproducibility and reliability of its novel infertility diagnosis platform MiOXSYS)
    PIP +3.4% ( receives a final payment from SIGA Technologies of $83.9 million which fully satisfies the judgment owed to PharmAthene)
    CLRB +3.4% (initiates in vivo studies for a variety of solid tumors following the successful conjugation of multiple)
    FCEL +3.3% (likely in sympathy with PLUG)
    SPPI +1.9% (will present data from a preclinical study evaluating poziotinib)
    CHGG +1.3% (favorable commentary on Wednesday's Mad Money)
    Analyst comments:
    MSFT +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
    TWX +0.8% (upgraded to Buy at MoffettNathanson)

    Briefing

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