Börsipäev 1. detsember
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Vastupidiselt rohketele skeptilistele arvamustele suutsid OPECi liikmed jõuda eile siiski kokkuleppeni vähendada päevast tootmist 1,16 miljoni barreli võrra 32,5 miljonile barrelile, mis tingis WTI 9,3% kallinemise 49,4 dollarile ning kergitas USA energiasektori aktsiaid enim viimase viie aasta jooksul (+4,8%). Teiste sektorite negatiivsemate liikumiste tõttu lõpetas S&P 500 kolmapäeval 0,3% võrra madalamal, kuid see ei rikkunud oluliselt terve novembrikuu võimsat 3,4% rallit. Stoxx 600 parandas taset 0,3% ning sulgus novembris 0,9% kõrgemal.
Ajalooliselt on detsember osutunud Ühendriikides aktsiate jaoks küll väga soodsaks, vedades hindasid üles 75% juhtudest alates 1950.a aga harilikult saadakse ree peale viimastel nädalatel pärast volatiilsemat kuu algust.
Toornafta täna jätkunud hinnatõus (Brent +3,9% @ 52,4 USD) ning Hiina erasektori novembrikuu aktiivsusindeksid aitasid Aasia aktsiaturgudel alustada uut kuud positiivsete liikumistega. Vastupidiselt oodatud aeglustumisele viitas novembrikuu ametlik PMI küsitlus Hiina töötleva tööstuse aktiivsuse kiiremale kasvule (51,7 vs 51,2 oktoobris ning prognoositud 51,0), saavutades kõrgeima taseme alates 2014.a keskpaigast. Hoogsamale kasvule viitas ka teenindus- ja ehitussektori PMI, paranedes novembris 0,7 punkti võrra 54,7 punktile ning positiivse aspektina tuli see just teenindussektori arvelt (53,7 vs 52,6 oktoobris), samal ajal kui valitsuse kehtestatud meetmed võisid olla põhjuseks, miks ehitussektori PMI alanes 61,8 punktilt 60,4 punktile, jäädes ajalooliselt siiski väga kõrgele tasemele.
Tänase börsipäeva keskmes saavad olema töötleva tööstuse novembri PMId, mille esialgsed numbrid on eurotsooni suuremate riikide kohta juba teada ning samuti võib regionaalsete küsitluste baasil oodata paranemist ka Ühendriikide näitajas.
10.15 Hispaania töötleva tööstuse PMI (november)
10.45 Itaalia töötleva tööstuse PMI (november)
10.50 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (novembri lõplik)
10.55 Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (novembri lõplik)
11.00 Itaalia töötuse määr (oktoober)
11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse PMI (novembri lõplik)
11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva töötuse PMI (november)
12.00 Eurotsooni töötuse määr (oktoober)
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
16.45 USA Markiti töötleva tööstuse PMI (novembri lõplik)
17.00 USA ehituskulutuste muutus (oktoober)
17.00 USA töötleva tööstuse ISM (november)
??.?? USA automüük (november) -
Hispaania töötlev tööstus on kogumas uuesti hoogu pärast nõrgemat perioodi aasta keskel
Spanish Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov: 54.5 (est 53.8; prev 53.3) -
Bernsteini kohaselt on tekkimas naftaturul defitsiit juba uue aasta alguses, mis võib 2017.a teiseks pooleks süveneda, toetades sellega hinna liikumist 60 dollari juurde.
While oil has already recovered back to US$50/bbl, we expect oil could trade up to US$55-US$60/bbl in the near term. Oil prices have yet to fully digest the full significance of what OPEC has announced and we expect more to come beyond the initial reaction. Longer term oil will revert back to marginal cost as inventories normalize. We see at US$60/bbl as a realistic target for 2017 and US$70/bbl for 2018. -
eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse lõplik PMI ühtis esialgse näitajaga (kõrgeim alates 2014.a jaanuarist), Suurbritannia PMI jätkas taandumist septembris saavutatud 27 kuu tipust
Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov F: 53.7 (est 53.7; prev 53.7)
UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Nov: 53.4 (est 54.4; rev prev 54.2) -
Eurotsooni tööpuuduse alanemine jätkub stabiilse trendina, saavutades oktoobris madalaima taseme alates 2009.a keskpaigast
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Gapping up
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
CBK +19.2%, TLYS +18.3%, SMTC +6%, LZB +5.4%, (also increases quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.11 per share), BOX +3.4%, VSM +2.5%
NWY +1%, DSGX +0.7%, PVH +0.6%
M&A news: CLC +16.3% (to be acquired by Parker Hannifin (PH) for $83.00/share in cash), KZ +2.1% (agrees to be taken private for $7.55/share), SYT +1.8% (Reuters details that ChemChina plans to setup $5 bln fund to finance Syngenta), .
Select EU financial related names showing strength: CS +3.4%, RBS +2.5%, BCS +1.2%, DB +1%
Select oil/gas related names showing early strength:
TPLM +10.4%, LEI +9.8%, NAO +8.3%, SDRL +8.2%, WTI +6.5%, MRO +4.9%, CRC +4.6%, OAS +4.5%, CHK +4%, ESV +4%
BAS +3.9%, REXX +3.7%, RIG +3.6%, RDS.A +1.9%, BP +1.8%
Other news:
BSTG +27.5% (confirms that its Cellspan Esophageal Implant was granted Orphan Drug Designation by the FDAg)
BLUE +24% ( announces interim Phase 1 dose escalation data for Anti-BCMA CAR T product candidate in patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; 100% of patients in second and third dose cohorts achieved objective response; two patients MRD-negative; overall response rate 78%)
FF +8.6% (declares a special cash dividend of $2.29/share)
SKX +6.9% (CEO disclosed purchase of 500K shares worth more than $5.5 mln; also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research)
CLRB +6.7% (updates on the first two cohorts of its Phase I clinical study of CLR 131)
CYTK +4.2% (announces that Amgen (AMGN) has started GALACTIC-HF)
COL +3.5% (Starboard may push for Rockwell to reconsider its pending merger with BEAV)
JUNO +3.2% (in sympathy with BLUE)
KITE +3.1% (in sympathy with BLUE)
PNLYY +2.9% (thinly traded ADR; PostNL acknowledges receipt of revised final proposal from bpost; is reviewing and considering bpost's revised conditional offer)
MBLY +1.9% (initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $55 )
ZIOP +1.5% (in sympathy with BLUE)
Analyst comments:
WLL +7.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
SMTC +6.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
SM +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
EOG +2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
APC +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
DE +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
EXPR -18.3%, GES -13.9%, LE -11.5%, DG -7.7%, NQ -6.7%, ISLE -6.3%, BL -5.3%, KR -4%, BV -3.5%, SNPS -1.9%, CWB -0.7%
M&A news: GNC -3.2% (Bloomberg reported that potential sale talks may have stalled)
Select Brazil related names showing weakness: ABEV -3.8%, ITUB -3.8%, BAK -3.3%, ERJ -2.3%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SBGL -2.8%, AU -2.5%, HMY -2.2%, GOLD -1.4%, AG -0.9%, TCK -0.9%, GG -0.5%
Other news:
HTBX -58.9% (presents topline HS-410 Phase 2 bladder cancer results; responses did not translate into clinical outcomes, there was no statistically significant difference in the primary endpoint between the vaccine and placebo arms)
ARDM -54.2% (top-line results from its two Phase 3 clinical trials evaluating the safety and efficacy of Pulmaquin)
PTN -27.8% (to issue and sell shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase shares of its common stock)
FCEL -11.1% (announces restructuring, impacting 17% of workforce, cuts production rate in half temporarily; sees Q4 rev below consensus)
CDZI -6.7% (prices underwritten public offering of 1 mln shares of its common stock at $9.75/share)
XNCR -5.4% (prices about a 4.6 mln share underwritten public offering of common stock at $24.00/share)
BEAV -4.2% (Starboard may push for Rockwell to reconsider its pending merger with BEAV)
PENN -3.2% (attributed to block trade sale)
MEMP -3.2% (enters into forbearance agreement with noteholders & receives extension of waiver under credit facility )
GWPH -2.5% (results from two completed Epidiolex Phase 3 trials, one in LGS and one in Dravet syndrome, will be presented at the AES Annual Meeting )
RXN -2.3% ( commences public offering of 7 mln depositary shares, each of which represents a 1/20th interest in a share of its Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock)
KNSL -1.8% (prices secondary offering by selling shareholders of 3,360,000 shares of common stock at $27.50 per shareg)
Analyst comments:
AA -1.3% (initiated with a Sell at Deutsche Bank)
WEN -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheimt)
Briefing.com -
Erko Rebane
Bernsteini kohaselt on tekkimas naftaturul defitsiit juba uue aasta alguses, mis võib 2017.a teiseks pooleks süveneda, toetades sellega hinna liikumist 60 dollari juurde.
Nagunii kõik võltsivad oma andmeid (eriti Venemaa). Seega, kes see täpselt ikka teab. -
USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused tõusid kõrgeimale tasemele alates juunist aga kuna läinud nädalal olid tänupühad, siis võis hooajaline korrigeerimine raskem olla
U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 17,000 TO 268,000; EST. 253,000 -
GM NOV. U.S. AUTO SALES RISE 10.2%, EST. UP 9.1%
FIAT CHRYSLER NOV. U.S. AUTO SALES FELL 14%, EST. DOWN 9.0% -
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov: 53.2 (est 52.5; prev 51.9)
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Kahtlane liikumine võlakirjades.
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2016/12/01/10-year-treasury-retests-2-41-high-will-yields-break-out/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets writes Thursday morning:
Treasuries were under pressure during the overnight session in a continuation of the bearish moves earlier this week. Yields are back near the highs and as such we’re increasingly nervous of the potential for a bearish breakout. While we’re not convinced of the sustainability of a move beyond 2.42% in the 10-year sector, at least not in the near-term, we have to respect the price action. We’ll be the first to point out that the driver of this selloff has been simply the process of ‘valuing the unknown’. We’re all scrambling to estimate the impact of Trumponomics on the real economy and inflation expectations, when to be frank, no one truly knows what fiscal stimulus measures and spending programs the incoming administration will be able to enact.
