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Börsipäev 14. detsember

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  • Esmaspäevane tagasihoidlik hingetõmme osutus USA aktsiaturgudel üürikeseks, kui eile jätkati Hiina oodatust paremate majandusnäitajate ning senise momentumi tuules taas uute tippude vallutamist. S&P 500 kosus 0,65%, Nasdaq 0,95% ning Dow Dones Industrial Average 0,58%, jõudes 88,79 punkti kaugusele maagilisest 20 tuhande punkti piirist. Ka Euroopas unustati esmaspäevane -0,5% langus üsna kiiresti, kui Stoxx 600 kosus 1,1%.

    Küsitlustel põhinevad majandusnäitajad viitasid eile majandusaktiivsuse võimalikule paranemisele nii eurotsooni suurimas riigis kui ka USAs. Saksamaa investorite ja analüütikute kindlustunde indeks tõusis detsembris selle aasta kõrgeimale tasemele (63,5 punkti) ja kuigi järgneva kuue kuu väljavaate indeks jäi stabiilseks 13,8 punktile, olid mõlemad indeksid neljandas kvartalis keskmiselt palju kõrgemad kui kolmandas kvartalis.

    Ühendriikides paranes väikefirmade kindlustunde indeks pärast presidendivalimisi 94,9 punkti pealt 98,4 punktile, ületades analüütikute prognoositud 96,7 punktist taset ning saavutades parima tulemuse alates 2014.a detsembrist. Kõrgema optimismi taga oli peamiselt väikefirmade lootus, et uue presidendi ja kongressi juhtimisel majanduse olukord paraneb (vastav indeks hüppas 19 punkti 12 punktile) ning see kergitas ka müügitulu ootust (antud indeks tõusis 10 punkti 11 punktile).



    Tänase päeva fookuses saab olema Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus, mis toob turuosaliste arvates 100% tõenäosuse juures 25baaspunktise kergitamise 0,5-0,75% peale. Paljude arvates ei muudeta oluliselt ka järgnevate aastate ja pikaajalist intressimäära prognoose, kuna hetkel on liialt vara hinnata fiskaalpoliitika võimalikku mõju majandusele. Sellest johtuvalt suundutakse järgmisesse aastasse nägemusega, et intressimäära tõstetakse 2017.a 0,5pp võrra.

    11.30 Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotlused (november) ja töötuse määr (oktoober)
    12.00 Eurotsooni tööstustoodang (oktoober)
    15.30 USA jaemüük (november)
    15.30 USA tootjahinnaindeks (november)
    16.15 USA tööstustoodang (november)
    17.30 USA toornafta varude raport (9. detsember)
    21.00 FOMC intressimäära otsus ja detsembri prognoosid
    21.30 FEDi Janet Yelleni pressikonverents
  • Ehe näide sellest, kui aktsiaturg on üleostetud, siis selliseks võivad tingimused jääda mõneks ajaks ning RSI veelgi kõrgema ekstreemumini lükata


    Dow Jonesi RSI on veelgi kõrgemal 87 punkti peal, mille järgi pole indeks nõnda üleostetud olnud viimase 20a jooksul.
  • Uusi laenusid väljastati Hiinas novembris kokku 794,6 miljardit jüaani, rohkem kui oodatud 720 miljardit ning kogu agregeeritud finantseerimine kasvas 1,74 triljoni jüaani võrra, ületades konsensuse 1,1 triljoni jüaani prognoosi
  • Suurbritannia töötu abiraha taotluste arv kasvas novembris oodatud 6,5 tuhande asemel 2,4 tuhande võrra (oktoobri tõus revideeriti 9,8 tuhande pealt 13,3 tuhandele) ning kolme kuu keskmine töötuse määr jäi oktoobris püsima 4,8% peale. Keskmise nädalapalga nominaalne kasv kiirenes boonuseid arvestamata 0,2pp võrra 2,6%le, jäädes positiivseks ka 1,2% inflatsiooni arvestades
  • Eurotsooni tööstustoodang kahanes oktoobris MoM -0,1% vs oodatud +0,1%, mis tõi aastase kasvu 0,6% peale (prognoositi 0,8%).
  • USA jaemüügi kasv aeglustus novembris kütust ja toitu arvestamata MoM 0,2% peale pärast 0,5% tõusu oktoobris (revideeriti pealt 0,6% madalamaks), jäädes alla analüütikute 0,4% prognoosile
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
    BPMX +11.7%, NDSN +7.9%, FSFR +1.7%, RICK +1%, ESRX +0.8%

    M&A news: NSR +20.4% (to be acquired for $33.50 per share by Golden Gate Capital)

    Other news:
    VCEL +65.4% (FDA approves first autologous cellularized scaffold for the repair of cartilage defects of the knee)
    BCLI +27.3% (announces new data from its Phase 2 study of NurOwn)
    REXX +19.2% (announces that Nasdaq has accepted Rex Energy's request for continued listing )
    SKIS +15.8% (announced USCIS approved the first I-526 Petition submitted by an investor in Mount Snow's EB-5 offering, allowing the funds raised in the offering to be released from escrow immediately)
    PLX +14.7% (Co received a letter from Fundação Oswaldo Cruz detailing intended purchases by the Brazilian Ministry of alfataliglicerase to treat Gaucher patients in Brazil of approximately $24 mln)
    ADHD +11.7% (announces it recently held a face-to-face meeting with the FDA to discuss their decision to place a full clinical hold on the development programs of Metadoxine Extended Release)
    ENT +10.7% (Global Eagle discloses in a filing that they entered into a new supply & services agreement with Southwest Airlines)
    DRWI +5.5% (receives extension from NASDAQ until April 17, 2017 to regain compliance)
    VTGN +5.3% (signs an exclusive sublicense agreement with BlueRock Therapeutics for VistaGen's rights)
    DSX +5.2% (Ironwood Trading discloses a 22.2% active stake)
    PRTO +4% (modestly rebounding following yesterday's weakness)
    RDHL +3.1% (Co and IntelGenx (IGXT) sign an exclusive license agreement with Pharmatronic for the commercialization of RIZAPORT in South Korea)
    ONVO +2.1% (announces an exclusive distributor agreement with Cosmo Bio for its NovoView Preclinical Services in Japan)
    WNC +1.6% (ticking higher, reinstates dividend; intends to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.06/share )
    VRX +1.2% (Pershing files amended 13D disclosing 7.8% active stake that reflects the sale of more than 3 mln shares)
    DBD +1.2% (Atlantic Investment discloses 5.1% active stake)
    H +0.6% (announces new authorization of $250 million in share repurchases)
    Analyst comments:
    NI +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
    NVDA +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Evercore ISI )
    KLAC +1.3% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham)
    FFIV +0.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
    AKAM +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
    ARNC -0.7%, (guidance at Investor Day)

    M&A news: SNY -1.7% (said to be in talks with Actelion)

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HMY -4.1%, GFI -2.3%, CLF -1.9%, AU -1.6%, VALE -1.5%, RIO -0.5%

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -3.4%, ESV -2.8%, WLL -2.6%, YNDX -2.3%, OAS -2.1%, SDLP -1.8%, CHK -1.6%, COP -1.6%, RIG -1.2%

    Other news:
    ANW -9.4% (prices $150 mln of convertible senior notes due 2021 in a private offering to qualified institutional buyers, $50 mln more than previously announced)
    EGLE -5.7% (announces $100 mln private placement of approx 22.2 mln shares of common stock at a purchase price of $4.50 per share)
    PBF -4.3% (prices 10 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $277.5 mln)
    HTZ -4.3% (announces Kathryn Marinello to become President and Chief Executive Officer effective January 3, 2017; announced that its three longest serving directors, Non-Executive Chair Linda Fayne Levinson, Compensation Committee Chair Carl T. Berquist and Financing Committee Chair Michael J. Durham have chosen to leave )
    CPE -4% ( subsidiary buys acreage in core southern Delaware Basin for $615 mln in cash; upsizes and prices 40 mln shares of common stock for gross proceeds of $656 mln)
    GM -3.4% (may be attributed to China Daily details that China plans to fine an unnamed US automaker for alleged monopolistic behavior)
    WFC -1.2% (FDIC/Fed Reserve agencies jointly determined that Wells Fargo did not adequately remedy two of the firm's three deficiencies)
    TLRD -1.1% (appoints Jack Calandra as CFO effective January 3, 2017 )
    OTEX -1% (prices 9.25 mln shares of common stock at $61.00 per share)
    GWR -0.9% (prices 4 mln shares of common stock at $75.00 per share)
    Analyst comments:
    QCOM -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)

    Briefing.com
  • USA tööstustoodang oodatust nõrgem novembris, kuid töötleva tööstuse oma üllatas seejuures positiivselt

    US Industrial Production (MoM)Nov: -0.4% (est. -0.20%, rev prev. 0.1% from 0.00%)
    US Manufacturing Production (MoM) Nov: -0.1% (est. -0.20%, rev prev. 0.3% from 0.20%)
  • eurotsoon on Kreekaga taas raksus ning peatas ESMi kaudu võla leevendamise meetmete rakendamise

    The fresh setback comes after the Syriza government announced it would give €600m to over 1m low-income pensioners to replace a Christmas bonus scrapped by its bailout monitors.
  • Fed officials raise rates by 25bps, repeat gradual policy path plan
    Fed: Policy supporting "some further strengthening" on goals
    Fed officials see 3 rate hikes in 2017, vs 2 in Sept.
    FOMC Raises 2017 GDP estimate to 2.1% (prev. 2.0%)

  • FOMC ja turu intressimäära ootuste vahel on trekkinud taas käärid, eriti 2018.a puhul

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