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Börsipäev 3. jaanuar

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  • Ühendriikide börsid olid eile pühade tõttu suletud, Euroopa aktsiaturgude jaoks algas uus aasta paljulubavalt, kui Stoxx 600 indeks sulgus 0,5% plussis.

    Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse aktiivsust mõõtva PMI indeksi detsembrikuu lõplikuks tasemeks kujunes 54,9 punkti (novembris 53,7), mis ühtis esialgselt avaldatud näitajaga ning ka analüütikute konsensuse ootusega. Tegemist oli parima tulemusega alates 2011.a aprillist ning arvestades uute tellimuste indeksi tõusu 55,6 punktilt 56,5 punktile, peaks see aitama sektori kasvu toetada ka esimese kvartali alguses.

    Erinevalt Hiina ametlikust töötleva tööstuse PMIst, viitas sõltumatu küsitlus sektori väiksemate ettevõtete seas detsembris hoopis kiiremale kasvule, kui Caixini koostatud indeks kerkis ühe punkti võrra 51,9 punktile, saavutades parima taseme alates 2013. jaanuarist ning ületades analüütikute prognoositud 50,9punktist ootust. Kuna antud küsitluse valim on suhteliselt väike, siis võib see tingida andmetes ka suuremat volatiilsust.



    Tähelepanu keskpunktis saavad täna olema Suurbritannia ja USA töötleva tööstuse küsitlused, lisaks sellele selguvad Prantsusmaal ja Saksamaal detsembri inflatsiooni numbrid.

    09.45 Prantsusmaa inflatsioon (detsember)
    10.55 Saksamaa töötute arvu muutus ja töötuse määr (detsember)
    11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse PMI (detsember)
    15.00 Saksamaa inflatsioon (detsember)
    16.45 USA Markiti töötleva tööstuse PMI (detsembri lõplik)
    17.00 USA töötleva tööstuse ISM (detsember)
    17.00 USA ehituskulutuste muutus (november)
  • Prantsusmaa headline inflatsioon kiirenes detsembris 0,1pp võrra 0,6%le, mida oli vähem kui analüütikute prognoositud 0,8%
  • Euroopa ettevõtetelt oodatakse 10% kasumikasvu, mis ehk tänavu ka lõpuks realiseerub

    * European earnings will start to grow this year after stagnating for years and should offset political risks, Barclays equity strategists including Dennis Jose write in note.
    * Barclays forecasts 10% earnings growth; assuming no multiple expansion to account for political risk, target for Stoxx 600 is 400 in 2017, or 11% returns
    * “Blue-sky” scenario with favorable political outcomes see a 1pt rise in P/E, representing 18% returns
    * Poor pricing has been preventing earnings growth in Europe; if inflation picks up, margins should expand
    * Heavy political calendar in Europe is a risk
    * Barclays is overweight financials, discretionary, tech, industrials and telcos; underweight staples, utilities and materials



    Allikas: Morgan Stanley
  • Siit Barclaysi jooniselt on hästi näha, kuidas müügitulu taastumisest hoolimata pole Euroopa ettevõtete aktsiakasumid kasumlikkuse tõttu USAle järgi liikunud
  • Terve Saksamaa inflatsioon selgub päeva teises pooles, kuid Saksimaa statistika näitab, et hindade hüpe on detsembris osaliselt energia baasefekti tõttu olnud jõuline
  • Saksamaa töötute arv kahanes detsembris oodatust rohkem, kuid töötuse määra see ei mõjutanud

    German Unemployment Change Dec: -17K (est -5K; rev prev -6K)
    Unemployment Rate SA Dec: 6.00% (est 6.00%; prev 6.00%)
  • Sarnane on liikumine olnud ka teiste Saksa liidumaade inflatsioonides
  • Suurbritannia töötlev tööstus pani samuti aastale ilusa punkti, kui PMI indeksi järgi kerkis aktiivsus 30 kuu kõrgeimale tasemele, mida toetas uute tellimuste kasvu kiirenemine nii kodumaalt kui ka välismaalt

    UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Dec: 56.1 (est 53.3; rev prev 53.6)
  • Kogu Saksamaa inflatsioon kiirenes detsembri esialgsetel andmetel 0,8% pealt 1,7%le, ületades konsensuse 1,4% prognoosi
  • UPGRADES:
    * 21st Century Fox (FOXA) raised to outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Barracuda Networks (CUDA) raised to market perform at JMP, PT $15
    * Belden (BDC) raised to buy at SunTrust, PT $78
    * Boot Barn (BOOT) raised to buy at B Riley
    * CR Bard (BCR) raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT $260
    * CenturyLink (CTL) raised to overweight at JPMorgan, PT $28
    * Disney (DIS) raised to buy at Evercore ISI, PT $120
    * Dover (DOV) raised to buy at Vertical
    * Energizer Holdings (ENR) raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley
    * Euronav (EURN BB) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank
    * Groupon (GRPN) raised to sector perform at RBC, PT $4
    * Henry Schein (HSIC) raised to outperform at Baird
    * MarketAxess (MKTX) raised to outperform at Raymond James, PT$175
    * Paccar (PCAR) raised to buy at Evercore ISI, PT $77
    * Patterson Cos (PDCO) raised to outperform at Baird
    * Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) raised to buy at Deutsche Bank
    * VCA (WOOF) raised to strong buy at Raymond James, PT $80
    * Verizon (VZ) raised to buy at Citi
    * Xerox (XRX) raised to outperform at Credit Suisse, PT $8
    * Xerox (XRX) raised to overweight at JPMorgan, PT $10.50

    DOWNGRADES:
    * Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) cut to hold at Jefferies
    * Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) cut to underperform at Oppenheimer
    * American Equity (AEL) cut to neutral at JPMorgan, PT $24
    * AmerisourceBergen (ABC) cut to neutral at Mizuho
    * Becton (BDX) cut to neutral at JPMorgan, PT $175
    * Brooks Automation (BRKS) cut to hold at Stifel, PT $17
    * Cardinal Health (CAH) cut to neutral at Mizuho
    * DSW (DSW) cut to hold at Jefferies
    * DexCom (DXCM) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, PT $66
    * Endurance International (EIGI) cut to sell at Goldman
    * Extra Space (EXR) cut to sector perform at RBC, PT $79
    * Golar LNG Partners (GMLP) cut to hold at Stifel, PT $23
    * Herman Miller (MLHR) cut to underperform at Raymond James
    * Huron Consulting (HURN) cut to market perform at William Blair
    * Kilroy (KRC) cut to sector perform at RBC, PT $80
    * Medtronic (MDT) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, PT$77
    * Medtronic (MDT) cut to neutral at JPMorgan, PT $79
    * Michael Kors (KORS) cut to neutral at Piper Jaffray
    * Paccar (PCAR) cut to neutral at Baird, PT $62
    * Regency Centers (REG) cut to outperform at RBC, PT $78
    * Reinsurance Group (RGA) cut to neutral at Goldman, PT $134
    * Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) cut to sector perform at RBC, PT $48
    * Steven Madden (SHOO) cut to hold at Jefferies
    * VF Corp (VFC) cut to neutral at Piper Jaffray
    * Ventas (VTR) cut to hold at Jefferies, PT $65
    * Voya (VOYA) cut to underweight at JPMorgan, PT $39
    * Wright Medical (WMGI) cut to neutral at Guggenheim
    * Xilinx (XLNX) cut to reduce at Nomura

    INITIATIONS:
    * Athene Holding (ATH) rated new buy at Goldman, PT $53
    * Athene Holding (ATH) rated new hold at Deutsche Bank
    * Athene Holding (ATH) rated new outperform at RBC, PT $54
    * Athene Holding (ATH) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
    * Athene Holding (ATH) rated new overweight at Barclays, PT$54
    * Conduent (CNDT-W) rated new neutral at JPMorgan, PT $15
    * Facebook (FB) rated new buy at Aegis, PT $150
    * Ichor Holdings (ICHR) rated new buy at Deutsche Bank
    * Ichor Holdings (ICHR) rated new buy at Stifel, PT $16
    * Ichor Holdings (ICHR) rated new outperform at Cowen, PT $15
    * Ichor Holdings (ICHR) rated new outperform at RBC, PT $14
    * Idera (IDRA) rated new outperform at Cowen
    * Mast Therapeutics (MSTX) rated new market perform at Cowen
    * Medivation (MDVN) rated new market perform at Cowen
    * Raptor Pharma (RPTP) rated new market perform at Cowen
    * Threshold (THLD) rated new market perform at Cowen
  • Gapping up:
    M&A related:

    DEPO +12.4% (DepoMed could still be acquired by KKR (KKR), according to NY Post)
    CEL +12.2% (Cellcom Israel updates on negotiations w/ third parties interested in purchasing Golan Telecom's share capital and a liquidation request filed by the co against Golan Telecom)
    FNBC +10.3% (First NBC Bank to sell nine branches and certain assets and liabilities to Hancock Holding's Whitney Bank)
    ALJ +8.9% (Delek US Holdings (DK) to acquire remaining 53% of outstanding shares it doesn't already own in ALJ USA for about $12.13/share or total equity value of about $464 mln)
    XRX +7.8% (after spinnig off Conduent (CNDT), Credit Suisse upgraded to Outperform)
    Select oil & gas names higher on 2% gain in crude oil: SGY +10.5%, SDRL +6.2%, FRO +4.6%, ATW +4.3%, PBR +4.3%, RIG +2.4%,CHK +1.9%,

    Financials showing relative strength: CS +4.8%, BCS +3.0%, BAC +2.0%, C +1.6%.

    Brazil ADRs extending recent gains; iShares Brazil ETF (EWZ +1.6%): GGB +8.6%, PBR.A +5.2%, BBL +3.7%, VALE +3.9%, VALE +3.4%.
    Other news:
    KOPN +7.4% ( enters a relationship w/ Goertek; will sell 7,339,000 shares of its common stock to Goertek at $3.25/share)
    CDTI +7.0% (ticking higher; files for 6,232,750 common stock offering by selling stockholders)
    ARRY +5.4% (still checking)
    AMD +1.7% (positive Barron's mention)
    NVDA +1.7% (still checking)
    FIT +1.6% (announced the addition of Fitbit Charge 2 into the recently expanded UnitedHealthcare (UNH) Motion wellness program)
    Analyst actions:
    IHG +3.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
    GRPN +3.0% (upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts)
    SRPT +2.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney; $65 tgt)

    Gapping down:
    Nat gas stocks ticking lower on 7% decline in nat gas futures: RRC -2.5%, SWN -2.1%, COG -1.5%.
    Other news:
    ITEK -65.6% (announces top-line results of MATrX-1 did not achieve its primary endpoint of superiority in reduction of intraocular pressure compared with placebo at all 12 time points; will wait for the full results from MATrX-1)
    TKC -4.4% (following Turkish terrorist attack)
    Analyst actions:
    MDT -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill, downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $77)
    NOK -1.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer)
    KORS -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray)
    ANF -0.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies)

    Briefing.com
  • US ISM DEC MANUFACTURING PMI 54.7 VS NOV 53.2 AND 53.8 EXPECTED

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