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Börsipäev 9. jaanuar

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  • Uue aasta esimene nädal algas paljude varaklasside jaoks edukalt, kui S&P 500 indeks kosus 1,7%, Euroopas parandas Stoxx 600 taset 1,1%, Jaapani Nikkei kerkis 1,8% ning kallimaks muutusid ka kuld ja nafta (vastavalt 2,2% ja 0,5%). Ühe tähelepanekuna pole suurettevõtete kõrval pidu siiski täiel rinnal nautinud spekulatiivset laadi väikeettevõtted. Seda esindav Russell 2000 indeks kosus küll nädala lõikes 0,8%, kuid vastupidiselt üldisele turule tõid neljapäev ja reede kaasa indeksi -1,5% kukkumise, mis võib peegeldada kasvavat riskikartlikkust.



    Reedese päeva keskmes oli USA tööturu raport, mis suuri üllatusi ei valmistanud ning tõenäoliselt ei anna ka FEDile põhjust oma senist retoorikat muuta. Kokku loodi detsembris väljaspool põllumajandussektorit 156 tuhat töökohta, veidi vähem kui analüütikute oodatud 175 tuhat, kuid puudujääki aitas tasa teha novembri näitaja positiivne revideerimine 178 tuhandelt 204 tuhandele. Töötuse määr kerkis kümendiku võrra 4,7%le peamiselt tööjõus osalemise määra tõttu (62,7% vs 62,6% novembris). Keskmise tunnitasu aastane tõus kiirenes 2,5% pealt 2,9%le (kiireim alates finantskriisist), ja kuigi sellele aitas kaasa küsitluse läbiviimise ajastus, siis pikaajaline trend on olnud ülespoole (2014.a keskmiselt 2,1%, 2015.a 2,3% ja 2,6% 2016.a).

    USA tööturu raporti järgne nädal saab majandusuudiste osas olema tavapäraselt vaikne, pakkudes täna eurotsooni novembri töötuse määra ning kahe FEDi ametniku kõne.

    11.00 Itaalia töötuse määr (november)
    12.00 Eurotsooni töötuse määr (november)
    16.00 FEDi Rosengren esineb
    21.00 FEDi Lochart esineb
    22.00 USA tarbijate krediit (november)
  • Saksamaa eksport ja import ületasid mõlemad novembris ootusi, kasvades MoM vastavalt 3,9% ja 3,5% (konsensus prognoosis 0,5% ja 1,1%). Novembri tööstustoodang kasvas MoM 0,4%, veidi vähem kui oodatud 0,6%, kuid oktoobri muutus revideeriti 0,3% pealt 0,5% peale. Mullusega võrreldes kiirenes tööstustoodangu kasv 1,6% pealt 2,2%le (prognoositi 1,9%).
  • Aeglane majanduskasv ei lase Itaalia töötuse määral alaneda, kerkides novembris 11,8% pealt 11,9%le (oodati 11,6%) ning noorte seas 37,6% pealt 39,4%le.
  • Eurotsooni töötuse määr püsis novembris ootuspäraselt 9,8% peal
  • Gavyn Davies toob FT blogis välja erinevate riikide/ regioonide jooksva majanduskasvu Fulcrumi mudeli kohaselt, mis nagu näha näitavad märksa paremat seisu, kui mullu samal ajal pärast FEDi esimest intressimäära tõstmist. Küsimus on selles, kas oleme tsükli tipus, või jätkub stabiilne/kiirenev kasv?

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    EXAS +15.9%, (sees Q4 revs above consensus) TTOO +7.5%, GPN +5.1%, PTCT +4.2%, VNDA +3.9%, FRAN +3.2%, SPNE +2%, PME +1.7%, NUVA +1.4%, VLRS +1.1%
    M&A news:
    MSTX +122.5% (signs merger agreement with privately held Savara Inc )
    MACK +35.8% (concludes strategic review; Ipsen (IPSEY) to Acquire Oncology Assets from Merrimack for $575 mln cash; up to $450 mln in additional regulatory approval-based milestone payments
    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: KGC +5.4%, VALE +4%, AUY +3.2%, GFI +2.8%, MUX +2.3%, GG +2.3%, AG +2.3%, GDX +2.2%, SLW +2%, ABX +1.9%, NEM +1.8%, AKS +1.1%

    Other news:
    ADMS +7.2% (prepares for potential approval and launch of ADS-5102 for the treatment of levodopa-induced dyskinesia in patients with Parkinson's disease in 2017)
    ARWR +7.1% (issues response to new minority shareholder announcement by Silence Therapeutics plc; no discussions about any potential transaction)
    KERX +6.3% (provides business update; sees Q4 revs above consensus)
    EBIO +5.2% (provides upcoming milestones in slide presentation)
    CTIC +4.8% (provides 2017 key objectives)
    MDCO +4.2% (presents compelling safety and efficacy data from Day 180 interim analysis for ORION-1 Phase 2 Study of Inclisiran )
    EXEL +3.1% (announced today that Genentech (RHHBY) has withdrawn its counterclaim against Exelixis in the ongoing JAMS arbitration )
    ARLZ +1.8% (enters into a rebate agreement with Express Scripts (ESRX))
    Analyst comments:
    JD +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
    BIDU +0.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan)

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    BABY -7.7%, LULU -1.9%, CMC -1.5%
    Select financial related names showing weakness:
    RBS -3.3%, DB -2.1%, PUK -1.6%, BCS -1.5%
    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness:
    WLL -1.7%, SDRL -1.5%, RDS.A -1.3%, CHK -1.3%, STO -1.3%
    Other news:
    ADHD -23.8% (receives official minutes from its meeting with the Division of Psychiatry Products of the FDA held in early December)
    ETRM -2.1% (after filing amended S-1)
    Analyst comments:
    RIG -2% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
    KO -1.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
    VMW -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS )

    Briefing.com
  • Rosengren, kes pole tänavu FOMC hääletav liige, hindab õiglaseks intressimäära kolme tõstmise väljavaadet selleks aastaks

    *Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren maintains hawkish posture he adopted in 2016, cautioning his colleagues that too slow a pace of interest-rate increases this year could jeopardize the ongoing economic recovery.
    * “A still-gradual but somewhat more regular increase in the federal funds rate will be warranted,” Rosengren says in text of speech he is scheduled to deliver Monday in Hartford, Connecticut
    * “Monetary policy will need to normalize more quickly than over the past year, but certainly not as rapidly as in the last tightening cycle, which began in 2004”: Rosengren
    * “The current unemployment rate is at my estimate of what is likely to be sustainable in the long run, and total and core PCE inflation measures are approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target,” he says
    * “Without further gradual increases in interest rates, one might be concerned that the unemployment rate could drift below its long-run sustainable level –- and as a result, inflation could eventually exceed the Fed’s 2 percent target”
    * Investors showing greater confidence inflation will return to 2 percent target
    * “Monetary policy will need to adjust -- to prevent the economy from dramatically overshooting on both elements of the dual mandate, which would place the economic recovery at risk”

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