Börsipäev 26. jaanuar
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Investorid jätkavad ettevõtete majandustulemuste taustal kõrgemate panuste tegemist nii Donald Trumpile kui ka USA majanduse tugevamale väljavaatele, pressides Ühendriikides indeksid uutele tippudele, mis tähendas S&P 500 indeksi jaoks sulgumist 0,8% plusspoolel. Pidu jõudis ka Euroopasse, kus Stoxx 600 indeks saavutas 1,3% tõusuga 13 kuu kõrgeima taseme.
Sarnaselt PMI indeksile, mis viitas jaanuaris Saksamaa majanduskasvu kergele aeglustumisele, peegeldas ka eile avaldatud ligikaudu 7000 ettevõtte küsitlus mõnevõrra ebakindlamat väljavaadet, kui ärikliima indeks alanes jaanuaris 111,0 punktilt 109,8 punktile. Ehkki firmajuhid avaldasid jooksvate tingimuste osas suuremat rahulolu, siis järgneva kuue kuu väljavaate indeks langes 105,5 punktilt 103,2 punktile (analüütikud ootasid 105,8 punkti), mis jääb madalamaks neljanda kvartali keskmisest (105,6 punkti) ning saadab signaali majanduskasvu potentsiaalsest aeglustumisest lähikvartalitel.
Ka Aasia aktsiaturgudel kauplesid indeksid öösel tugevalt rohelises eesotsas Jaapani Nikkeiga, mis kerkis 1,8%. Hiinas jäi Shanghai Composite liikumine tagasihoidlikumaks, piirdudes 0,3% tõusuga, mida võis mõjutada uudis Hiina keskpanga väidetavast ettekirjutusest kommertspankadele piirata esimeses kvartalis uute laenude väljastamist, eriti kinnisvaralaenusid. Samuti näitas statistika kohalike tööstusettevõtete koondkasumi kasvutempo aeglustumist detsembris 2,3%le pärast novembris saavutatud 12,2%. Statistikaamet kirjutas aeglustumise peamiselt elektroonika ja telekomiseadmete tootjate kasumite langusele võrreldes mullusega.
Hiina tööstusettevõtete koondkasumi aastane muutus (%)
Majandusuudistest saavad täna tähelepanu keskpunktis olema Saksamaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks, Suurbritannia neljanda kvartali SKP, USA teenindussektori jaanuari aktiivsusindeks ning uute majade detsembri müük. Ettevõtetest avaldavad oma tulemused teiste seas Bristol.Myers, Caterpillar, Celgene, Comcast, Dow Chemical, Ericsson, Fiat Chrysler, Ford Motor, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Southwest Air, Alphabet, Intel, Microsoft, Starbucks.
09.00 Saksamaa tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (veebruar)
11.00 Itaalia jaemüük (november)
11.30 Suurbritannia neljanda kvartali SKP
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
16.45 USA Markiti teenindussektori PMI (jaanuar)
17.00 USA uute majade müük (detsember)
17.00 USA juhtivate indikaatorite indeks (detsember)
18.00 USA Kansas City FEDi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks (jaanuar) -
Erinevalt IFO indeksist on veebruaris jätkumas Saksa tarbijate kindlustunde indeksi kasv kolmandat kuud järjest, kerkides 0,3 punkti võrra 10,2 punktile ning ületades sellega analüütikute 10,0 prognoosi. Madal tööpuduus on toetamas tarbijate sissetulekute kasvu ootust ning koos sellega kerkis valmisolek teha suuremaid kulutusi (vastav indeks kerkis 48,0 punktilt 57,6 punktile).
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Tulemuste kommentaarides ei tule tihti ette seda, et süüks tuuakse ebaõnne ja ühte inimest
Las Vegas Sands said on 4Q earnings call that bad luck cost Macau $60m in revenue.
LVS says one woman player in Macau kept winning -
USA aktsiaturud võivad küll tippe teha, aga väikeinvestorite küsitluses langes pullide osakaal sel nädalal 32%le, mis on kolme kuu madalaim tase ning ei näita väga eufoorilist meeleolu. Karude osakaal kerkis marginaalselt 33%le, neutraalse hoiakuga investorite osakaal tõusis 30% pealt 35%le.
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Suurbritannia majandus kasvas neljandas kvartalis QoQ 0,6% ja YoY 2,2%, jäädes üsna ootuste lähedale
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Vähemalt detsembri lõpus jätkatkati USA aktsiaturul lühikeste positsioonide katmist
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Deutsche arvab, et globaalse majanduse hoog tõenäoliselt raugeb järgnevatel kuudel
Global macro surprises are close to their all-time high and are likely to roll over from current elevated levels, Deutsche Bank strategists including Sebastian Raedler write in note.
• Lower macro surprises would be consistent with tactical pull-back for equities
• Overweight defensives vs cyclicals
• Overweight telecoms and pharma; benchmark banks and food and beverage; underweight construction materials
• Targets 375 on the Stoxx 600 by end-2017; sees continued rise in forward EPS driven by a weaker Euro and robust global growth
• “While we expect European equities to be higher by year-end, we prefer to wait for a more propitious entry point.” -
Kust see investorite optimism Caterpillari puhul tuleb on raske öelda
25. oktoober: Co lowers FY16 guidance, sees EPS of $3.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $3.55; sees FY16 revs of $39.0 bln vs. $40.13 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $40.0-40.5 blnCaterpillar preliminary outlook for 2017 is that sales and revenues will not be significantly different than 2016 (consensus EPS slightly higher and rev slightly lower)
1.dets: Caterpillar at Credit Suisse Industrials Conference guides 2017 revs and adj EPS in slides; sees $38 bln rev consensus as reasonable, adj EPS $3.25 is 'too optimistic'
26. jaanuar: Caterpillar lowers FY17 guidance, sees EPS at $2.90 vs $3.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $36-39 bln vs $38.30 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Caterpillari aktsia hind (valge) ning 2017.a aktsiakasumi ootus (punane) -
U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 22,000 TO 259,000; EST. 247,000
US ADVANCED GOODS TRADE BALANCE (DEC): USD -65.0 BLN (EST-65.3 BLN, PREV USD -66.6 BLN)
US WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (MOM) DEC 1.0% (EST 0.1%; PREV 1.0%) -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
NURO +16.4%, URI +9.6%, (will acquire NES for approximately $965 million in cash; acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to United Rentals' adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow generation for the full year 2017)
QSII +7.4%, NOW +7.4%, EBAY +7.2%, TER +6.6%, (also quarterly dividend increased 17% to $0.07 beginning 1Q17), SHW +6.1%, MEOH +5.4%
CRR +5.3%, STM +4.9%, DEO +4.2%, LUV +3.7%, NVMI +3.3%, RCL +3%, IVZ +2.9%, XLNX +2.4%, FCAU +2.4%, PHM +2.3%
BGG +2.1%, CMCSA +2%, RDN +1.9%, DOW +1.9%, ERIC +1.7%, BIIB +1.6%, VRTX +1.5%, ASX +1.5%, ABMD +1%
M&A news:
MGI +30.5% (near a deal to be acquired by an Alibaba (BABA) affiliate, according to the WSJ)
WGL +3.3% (WGL Holdings to be acquired by AltaGas for $88.25/share in cash, or approximately CAD$8.4 bln)
Other news:
AVGR +37% (Avinger announces positive two-year clinical data from the pivotal VISION study of the company's Lumivascular technology)
EGY +4.3% ( reported Q4 production results)
RBS +3.6% (provides update to write-downs related to RMBS investigations and litigation)
NOK +2.6% (in sympathy with ERIC)
WTW +2.3% (Kraft Heinz and Oprah Winfrey announce joint venture called Mealtime Stories)
PULM +1.8% (following 65%+ move higher on Wednesday)
FCH +1.5% (following late move higher on sale speculation)
PYPL +1.2% (in sympathy with EBAY)
Analyst comments:
BANC +4.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR & Co)
SGMS +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill)
ABB +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Nordea)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
MAT -12.2%, CMPR -11.4%, (very light volume - also announces intention to implement organizational changes aimed at decentralizing its operations)
MCK -6.1%, (also enters into agreement to acquire CoverMyMeds for approx $1.1 bln), EURN -6.1%, VAR -5.9%, SWK -5.9%, FFIV -5.2%, POT -4.8%
LVS -4.7%, UN -4.7%, EFII -4.6%, WHR -4.3%, ADS -4.1%, CTXS -3.9%, (also increases buyback $500 mln; LogMeIn stockholders approve issuance of shares of its common stock to equityholders of Citrix Systems in connection with its proposed merger with Citrix; merger is expected to be completed on January 31, 2017)
QCOM -3.9%, RTN -3%, KNX -2.9%, BMY -2.8%, NG -2.5%, QTM -2.2%, GDX -2.2%, WASH -2.1%, CLFD -2.1%, LYTS -1.8%, LRCX -1.6%, LANC -1.6%
CAT -1.4%, SXC -1.3%, CMO -1.2%, (light volume), NUTR -1.2%
M&A news:
JNJ -0.5% (to acquire Actelion (ALIOY) for $280 per share; will spin-out of new R&D Co)
Select LVS peers showing weakness:
WYNN -1.5%, MPEL -1.5%, MGM -1.4%
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
AGI -7.5%, HMY -4.4%, ABX -3.2%, AU -3.1%, KGC -3%, SLW -2.8%, AUY -2.8%, GOLD -2.8%, GFI -2.6%, NEM -2.6%, GDX -2.3%, BBL -1.7%, RIO -1.5%, SLV -1.5%, BHP -1.2%
Other news:
DRWI -23.8% (reduced the exercise price of its outstanding six-month warrants issued August 2016)
ENTL -10.8% (prices 3.53 mln shares of common stock at $17.00 per share)
AGI -7.5% (announces $250 mln bought deal offering; to sell 31.45 mln common shares at $7.95/share)
HAS -3.8% (following MAT earnings/guidance)
ABC -3.3% (following MCK earnings/guidance and acquisition news)
Analyst comments:
UTX -0.9% (downgraded to Hold ratings from Buy at Argus)
Briefing.com -
USA teenindussektori PMI kerkis jaanuaris 53,9 punktilt 55,1 punktile, viidates kiireimale kasvule alates 2015.a novembrist
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Uute majade müük oodatust nõrgem
US New Home Sales Change Dec: 536K (est 588K; rev prev 598K)
US New Home Sales (MoM) Dec: -10.40% (est -0.70%; rev prev 4.70%) -
Alphabet misses by $0.26, beats on revs
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $9.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.26 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $9.62; revenues rose 22.2% year/year to $26.06 bln vs the $25.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
GOOG jääb kasumiootustele alla ja järelkauplemisel aktsia @813,8, -2,2% -
Erko Rebane
Kust see investorite optimism Caterpillari puhul tuleb on raske öelda
25. oktoober: Co lowers FY16 guidance, sees EPS of $3.25, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $3.55; sees FY16 revs of $39.0 bln vs. $40.13 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $40.0-40.5 blnCaterpillar preliminary outlook for 2017 is that sales and revenues will not be significantly different than 2016 (consensus EPS slightly higher and rev slightly lower)
1.dets: Caterpillar at Credit Suisse Industrials Conference guides 2017 revs and adj EPS in slides; sees $38 bln rev consensus as reasonable, adj EPS $3.25 is 'too optimistic'
26. jaanuar: Caterpillar lowers FY17 guidance, sees EPS at $2.90 vs $3.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $36-39 bln vs $38.30 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Caterpillari aktsia hind (valge) ning 2017.a aktsiakasumi ootus (punane)
Ja uued tipud CAT. -
