Börsipäev 10. veebruar
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Donald Trump on tõestanud ennast juba korduvalt turu ühe peamise katalaüsaatorina ning eilne päev polnud erandiks, olles lennufirmade juhtidega kohtudes lubanud järgneva kolme nädala jooksul avalikustada maksureformi paketi, mis võimaldaks lennufirmadel ja teistel ettevõtetel palgata rohkem töötajaid. Olgugi et täpsemad detailid on jätkuvalt teadmata, aitasid piisavalt elevust tekitanud pealkirjad tõugata USA aktsiad värsketele rekorditele (S&P 500 +0,6%).
Euroopas lõpetas Stoxx 600 üsna laiapõhjalise tõusuga kolmandat päeva plussis, kerkides 0,8%ga kahe nädala tippudele. Tugevamalt esinesid Eutelsat Communications +8.2%, Raiffeisen Bank International +6.2%, Orion Oyj +5.9%, Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport S +5.4%, Sanofi +4.6%. Suurimad kaotajad olid indeksis Amer Sports -7.3%, Yara International -6.7%, RPC Group -5.8%, Orkla -5.6%, Gjensidige Forsikring -5.5%.
USA töötu abiraha taotlused alanesid läinud nädalal 12 tuhande võrra 234 tuhandele, osutudes paremaks analüütikute prognoositud 249 tuhandest. Väiksema kõikumisega nelja nädala libisev keskmine alanes 248 tuhandelt 244,25 tuhandele, mis on madalaim alates 1973.a ning näitab, et ettevõtted eelistavad paraneva majandusliku väljavaate tõttu töötajatest kinni hoida.
Chicago FEDi presidendi Charles Evansi sõnul (FOMC hääletav liige) on täna jätkuvalt vara hinnata fiskaalpoliitika mõju majandusele ning samuti teeb muret liiga madal inflatsioon, kuid intressimäära tõstmine tänavu kolmel korral pole põhjendamatu ootus. St. Louisi FEDi president James Bullard (pole tänavu FOMC hääletav liige) jäi kindlaks oma varasemale seisukohale, et keskpank ei peaks intressimäära tõstmisega kiirustama, välistades rahapoliitika edasist normaliseerimist märtsi istungil, kuna tõenäoliselt pole selleks ajaks ebakindlus fiskaalpoliitika osas oluliselt lahenenud.
Positiivse lainega on öösel kaasa liikunud ka Aasia aktsiaturud, eriti Nikkei, mis lõpetas sessiooni 2,5% kõrgemal ning tänu sellele jõudis aasta alguse tasemega jeenides uuesti plussi. Trumpi kommentaarid aitasid tugevdada dollarit jeeni vastu ning oma täiendav mõju võis olla ka administratsiooni kommentaaridel, mille kohaselt pole reedeks planeeritud kohtumisel Jaapani peaministri Shinzo Abega valuuta manipuleerimine teemaks.
Hiina aktsiad olid lõpetamas lennukaimat nädalat alates novembrist, leides tuge oodatust paremast jaanuarikuu kaubandusstatistikast, mida uue aasta liikuv püha võis siiski moonutada. Hiina jaanuarikuu import kasvas mullusega võrreldes 16,7%, kiirenedes detsembri 3,1% pealt ning ületades konsensuse 10,0% prognoosi. Detsembri -6,2% languse järel näitas eksport jaanuaris 7,9% kasvu, lüües samuti analüütikute 3,2% ootust.
Nädalale pannakse täna punkt täeindavate detsembri tööstustoodangu numbritega mitmel pool Euroopas ning lisaks võiks huvi pakkuda USA tarbijate veebruarikuu esmane kindlustunde indeks.
09.45 Prantsusmaa tööstustoodang (detsember)
11.00 Itaalia tööstustoodang (detsember)
11.30 Suurbritannia tööstustoodang (detsember)
15.30 Kanada tööturu raport (jaanuar)
17.00 USA Michigani ülikooli tarbijate kindlustunde indeks (veebruar)
20.00 USA Baker Hughes aktiivsete naftapuurtornide arv (10. veebruar)
21.00 USA valitsuse eelarve tasakaal (jaanuar) -
Prantsusmsaa tööstustoodang sellist negatiivset üllatust ei pakkunud nagu Saksamaa ja Hispaania puhul, alanedes detsembris MoM -0,9% (prog -0,7%). Sarnaselt kujunes üsna ootuspäraseks töötleva tööstuse toodang, mis vähenes pärast novembri 2,4% hüpet detsembris MoM -0,8% (oodati -0,7%), tuues aastase kasvu 0,6%le.
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Hiina ja USA presidentide eilse kõne kokkuvõtte baasil eeldatakse, et suhted võivad majanduslikus kööstöös ja kaubavahetuses olla kardetust konstruktiivsemad. Via Guardian
“President Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our ‘One China’ policy,” the White House said, referring to a diplomatic understanding by which Washington does not challenge China’s claim over Taiwan, a democratically ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province.
The two leaders agreed to “keep close contact with each other” and to “strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in trade and economy, investment as well as international affairs,” Xinhua added. -
Itaalia tööstustoodang kasvas detsembris MoM 1,4% (oodati -0,1%) ning YoY 6,6% (oodati 3,2%)
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Samuti püsib oodatust tugevamana Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse toodang, mis kasvas detsembris MoM 2,1% (oodati 0,5%) ning mullusega võrreldes 4,0% (oodati 1,7%). PMI indeksi järgi jäi aktiivsus kõrgeks ka jaanuaris.
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osad ütlevad, et USA ettevõtete tegelik maksumäär on juba enne kärpeid tublisti alla 35% ning et ametlik alandamine palju kasumeid ei kasvata, teiste arvates pole reformi üldse hindadesse sisse arvatud
“At the moment the market isn’t pricing in any kind of corporate tax cuts,” Michael Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan says in interview with Bloomberg TV.
* “Imagine you get a corporate tax cut down to around 20% compared with the average of about 35% at the moment, that has a hugely positive impact on earnings:” Bell
* Says outlook for U.S. “quite positive” which is good for equity markets globally.
* Sees 3 Fed rate hikes this year, 4 next year, which will push dollar, bond yields higher
* “We don’t really buy the rally in government bonds that you’ve seen in recent weeks. We think government bond yields in the U.S. will head to about 3%”
* Has neutral position on emerging markets because dollar strength will “drag on what would otherwise be a relatively good environment” -
tegeliku kapitali liikumise järgi pole sentiment nõnda positiivne nagu aktsiaindeksite tõusu põhjal võiks seda järeldada
* U.S. equity funds see outflows of $1.6b in the week to Feb. 8, with outflows in 4 of past 5 weeks, according to BofAML strategy note, citing EPFR Global data.
* European equity funds see $0.1b inflows, marking a third straight week of inflows
* Japan equity funds see $3.4b inflows, emerging markets equity funds see $1b inflows, 5th straight positive week for both
* In fixed income: bonds funds globally see $13.3b inflows, marking a 7th positive week in a row; HY bond funds see $1.9b inflows, IG bond funds inflows $7.6b, emerging markets debt fund inflows $2.5b
* By sector: $1.9b inflows to U.S. value funds vs $1.0b outflows from U.S. growth funds; 4 straight weeks of outflows from REITs; inflows to materials in 13 of past 14 weeks; inflows to energy in 9 of past 10 weeks
* Overall, dip in bond yields incites big buying of IG bonds, HY bonds, renewed interest in EM debt: BofAML
* Inflows to equity funds investing in value, Europe, Japan, materials, financials; outflows from equity funds investing in U.S. stocks, growth, telcos, consumer sector -
jätkuks eelmisele postitusele, et võlakirjafondid meelitavad kapitali rahaturu- ja aktsiafondidest
Pimco MD Explains Why Investors Are Flocking to Safety -
S&P 500 Q4 tulemuste hooaja update
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UPGRADES:
* Celadon Group (CGI) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $10
* Control4 (CTRL) raised to outperform at Raymond James, PT $17
* Enerplus (ERF CN) raised to outperform at BMO, PT C$15
* Ford (F) raised to hold at Jefferies, PT $12
* Golden Entertainment (GDEN) raised to buy at SunTrust, PT $14
* Gran Tierra (GTE) raised to outperform at Credit Suisse, PT$3.75
* Heartland Express (HTLD) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $19
* Infinera (INFN) raised to buy at Nomura, PT $15
* Knight Transport (KNX) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $29
* Landstar (LSTR) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $79
* MEG Energy (MEG CN) raised to outperform at Raymond James
* Marten Transport (MRTN) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $23
* Medidata (MDSO) raised to buy at SunTrust, PT $70
* QEP (QEP) raised to outperform at Wells Fargo
* Werner Enterprises (WERN) raised to hold at Stifel, PT $28
DOWNGRADES:
* Alamos Gold (AGI CN) cut to sector perform at RBC, PT $9
* Bright Horizons (BFAM) cut to market perform at WilliamBlair
* Cerner (CERN) cut to market perform at Avondale, PT $45
* Cerner (CERN) cut to market perform at Oppenheimer
* Fossil (FOSL) cut to underperform at Mizuho, PT $19
* Golub Capital (GBDC) cut to market perform at Raymond James,PT $19
* Great Canadian Gaming (GC CN) cut to sector perform at Scotiabank
* Intel (INTC) cut to hold at Canaccord, PT $38
* LyondellBasell (LYB) cut to neutral at Susquehanna, PT $100
* MTS Systems (MTSC) cut to neutral at JPMorgan, PT $61
* Reynolds American (RAI) cut to market perform at Cowen
* Suncor Energy (SU CN) cut to sector perform at Peters & Co, PT C$45
* Teradata (TDC) cut to underperform at Mizuho, PT $26
* Tesaro (TSRO) cut to market perform at Leerink, PT $186
* Teva (TEVA IT) cut to underperform at Mizuho, PT $27
* Twitter (TWTR) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank
* Twitter (TWTR) cut to sell at Citi
* Twitter (TWTR) cut to sell at UBS, PT $12
* Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) cut to underperform at Credit Suisse, PT $44
* Viacom (VIAB) cut to equal-weight at Barclays, PT $45
* Yum (YUM) cut to neutral at Longbow
INITIATIONS:
* AMC Networks (AMCX) rated new hold at Deutsche Bank
* Big Lots (BIG) rated new neutral at Susquehanna, PT $55
* Boyd Gaming (BYD) rated new buy at SunTrust, PT $24
* Costco (COST) rated new positive at Susquehanna, PT $192
* Discovery Communications (DISCA) rated new hold at Deutsche Bank
* Entegris (ENTG) rated new buy at Goldman, PT $26
* J.C. Penney (JCP) rated new positive at Susquehanna, PT $8.50
* Kohl’s (KSS) rated new neutral at Susquehanna, PT $41
* Macy’s (M) rated new neutral at Susquehanna, PT $31
* MarineMax (HZO) rated new buy at Citi
* Nice Ltd (NICE) rated new neutral at Goldman
* Nordstrom (JWN) rated new neutral at Susquehanna, PT $47
* Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) rated new overweight at Cantor, PT $35
* Penn National (PENN) rated new hold at SunTrust, PT $14
* Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) rated new hold at SunTrust, PT $17
* Ross Stores (ROST) rated new positive at Susquehanna, PT $80
* Sears (SHLD) rated new negative at Susquehanna, PT $4
* TJX (TJX) rated new positive at Susquehanna, PT $92
* Target (TGT) rated new neutral at Susquehanna, PT $70
* Verint (VRNT) rated new buy at Goldman, PT $44
* Versum Materials (VSM) rated new neutral at Goldman, PT $32
* Wal-Mart (WMT) rated new positive at Susquehanna, PT $80
* Williams Cos (WMB) rated new hold at Deutsche Bank
* Williams Partners (WPZ) rated new buy at Deutsche Bank -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
CTRL +15%, INFN +11.7%, SKX +10.4%, HDP +10.1%, ATVI +10.1%, QUOT +10.1%, SWIR +9.7%, ASYS +8.1%, TRVG +7.8%, RPD +7.5%, IMMU +7%
ATEN +7%, ELLI +5.5%, CPN +4.7%, ICHR +4.5%, NE +4.4%, COLM +4.4%, TLND +3.9%, MT +3.6%, FLR +3.3%, ARCW +3.2%, RGC +3.2%, INVA +2.7%
ESNT +2.7%, NVDA +2.4%, JCOM +2%, LPLA +1.9%, VRSN +1.8%, CPST +1.6%, NWSA +1.6%, NR +1.2%, EXPE +0.9%, AON +0.7%, MIME +0.6%, NTT +0.6%
M&A news:
MJN +5.2% (to be acquired by Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY) for $90 per share)
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:
FCX +4.2%, VALE +3.9%, GFI +2.4%, RIO +1.9%, HMY +1.5%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength:
WLL +2.5%, PBR +2.2%, RIG +1.9%, CHK +1.3%, HAL +0.8%
Other news:
SHLD +35.2% (announces 2nd phase of strategic restructuring program, targeting cost reductions of at least $1.0 billion on an annualized basis and enters into amended credit facility, sees upside Q4 sales)
CBR +9.4% (Lone Star Value discloses 5.4% active stake, says has engaged, and may continue to engage, in general discussions with the Board and management team, including with respect to the composition of the Board)
IMMU +9.1% (enters into exclusive global licensing agreement with Seattle Genetics (SGEN))
HXL +3.4% (authorizes $300 million of additional share repurchases)
AMD +2.7% (NVDA sympathy)
AVEO +1.1% (announces updates for its lead drug candidate, tivozanib; 'Pivotal TIVO-3 Trial Enrollment Proceeding Substantially Ahead of Schedule', not revising anticipated topline data time)
JBLU +0.7% (reports January traffic)
Analyst comments:
GTE +5.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)
QEP +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo)
BYD +0.5% (initiated with a Buy at SunTrust)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
ONVO -17.2%, RSYS -15.3%, YELP -9.7%, UBNT -9.6%, CATM -7.3%, CERN -7%, MX -6.6%, SGEN -6.5%, IPAS -6.3%, MPWR -5.6%, CYBR -5.4%, MCFT -5%
ZNGA -4.8%, ZAYO -3.2%, APTI -3.2%, SANW -3.2%, ALDW -2.6%, EGAN -2.4%, P -1.8%, TBBK -1.7%, CARB -1.4%, MHK -1.3%, AXL -0.9%, .
Select financial related names showing weakness:
DB -2.2%, SAN -2.2%, RBS -2%, ING -1.7%, CS -1.6%, LYG -1.2%
Other news:
MJN 5.2% (to be acquired by Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY) for $90 per share)
BSTG -37.6% (prices public offering with expected total gross proceeds of approx. $8.0 mln at $0.40/share)
TCON -17.5% ( reports top-line results from a randomized Phase 2 clinical trial of TRC105 in recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) funded and conducted by the Clinical Therapy Evaluation Program (CTEP) of the National Cancer Institute )
ICPT -11.3% (will provide an update on the Phase 3 REGENERATE trial of obeticholic acid in NASH patients with liver fibrosis during a conference call today)
NDLS -9% (completes $18.5 mln private placement of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and warrants to L Catterton, amends credit facility, and preannounces in-line Q4 revs; commences common stock offering; size not disclosed)
BTX -8.6% (commences common stock offering)
CLF -5.8% (upsizes offering by 5 mln shares and prices 55 mln shares of common stock at $10.75 per share)
NBIX -0.8% (Neurocrine Biosci and BIAL enter into an exclusive licensing agreement for the development and commercialization of opicapone in North America)
Analyst comments:
TWTR -1.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup)
TEVA -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)
GBDC -0.9% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)
SBUX -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)
Briefing.com -
USA tarbijate kindlustunde indeks andis veebruaris oodatust veidi rohkem tagasi
US Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Feb P: 95.7 (est 98; prev 98.5)
