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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 1. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Trumpi fiskaalstiimuli detailide ootuses võeti eile Ühendriikide aktsiaturul väikest kasumit, mis viis S&P 500 indeksi päeva lõpuks -0,3% madalamale. Euroopas sulgus Stoxx 600 nelja päeva pikkuse languse järel tööstus- ja tervishoiusektori ettevõtete eestvedamisel 0,2% plusspoolel. Indeksi suurimateks tõusjateks olid Meggitt +13.1%, IWG +9.0%, Babcock International Group +7.1%, GKN +4.9%, Croda International +4.9%. Enim kaotasid väärtust Moneysupermarket.com Group -6.1%, Neste -3.9%, Nets -3.5%, HUGO BOSS -3.4%, St James’s Place -3.0%.

    Pärast USA turgude sulgumist Kongressi ees esinenud Donald Trump kordas oma varasemat lubadust muuta maksusüsteemi, suurendada kaitsekulutusi ja investeerida koos erasektoriga triljon dollarit riigi infrastruktuuri, avaldamata seejuures endiselt täpsemaid detaile. Kirjutamise hetkel kauplesid USA aktsiaindeksite futuurid 0,2% kõrgemal, mis näitab et kõne oli siiski piisav hoidmaks alles investorite optimismi.

    Veebruarikuu esialgne statistika viitab Hiina majanduskasvu kiirenemisele, kui töötleva tööstuse PMI paranes jaanuari 51,3 punkti pealt 51,6 punktile, ületades analüütikute 51,2punktist ootust. Uute tellimuste indeks tõusis 52,8 punktilt 53,0 punktile, mis annab lootust sektori kasvu jätkumisele peamiselt tänu siseriiklikele tellimustele. Väiksema ja keskmise suurusega töötleva tööstuse firmade aktiivust kajastav Caixini küsitlus rääkis sama lugu, kerkides veebruaris 0,7 punkti 51,7 punktile ning lüües analüütikute 50,8punktist prognoosi. Väljaspool töötlevat tööstust alanes PMI -0,4 punkti võrra 54,6 punktile, kui kasvu veab peamiselt ehitussektor (60,1 punkti).



    Börsipäev jätkub täna PMI indeksitega nii Euroopas kui Ühendriikides, millele lisaks võiks huvi köita Saksamaa ja USA inflatsioon.

    09.00 Soome neljanda kvartali SKP
    10.15 Hispaania töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruar)
    10.45 Itaalia töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruar)
    10.50 Prantsusmaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruari lõplik)
    10.55 Saksamaa töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruari lõplik)
    10.55 Saksamaa töötute arvu muutus (veebruar)
    11.00 Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruari lõplik)
    11.30 Suurbritannia töötleva tööstuse PMI (veebruar)
    15.00 Saksamaa inflatsioon (veebruari esialgne)
    15.30 USA isiklikud kulutused ja sissetulek (jaanuar)
    15.30 USA inflatsioon (jaanuar)
    16.45 USA töötleva tööstuse ISM (veebruar)
    17.00 Kanada keskpanga intressimäära otsus
    17.00 USA ehituskulutuste muutus (jaanuar)
    17.30 USA toornafta varude raport (24. veebruar)
    20.00 FEDi Kaplan esineb
    21.00 USA FEDi Beige Book
    ??.?? USA automüük (veebruar)
  • Fillon taganemas võitlusest?

    French Pres. Candidate Fillon To Give Speech At 11:00 GMT From Campaign HQ – France Inter
  • Soomes lõppeas aasta 1,3% majanduskasvuga (Q3 1,9%)
  • Hispaania töötleva tööstuse PMI alanes veebruaris -0,8 punkti võrra 54,8 punktile, vastupidiselt oodatud +0,2 tõusule
  • Itaalia töötleva tööstuse PMI kerkis 14 kuu tippu 55,0 punktile vs oodatud 53,5 punkti
  • Saksamaa töötute arvu kahanemine jätkus veebruari oodatust kiiremini, kuid töötuse määra see ei mõjutanud

    German Unemployment Change Feb: -14k (est -10K; rev prev -25K)
    -Unemployment Rate Feb: 5.90% (est 5.90%; prev 5.90%)

  • Eurotsooni töötleva tööstuse veebruari lõplik PMI oli 55,4 vs esialgselt raporteeritud 55,5, mis sellest hoolimata märgib sektori kiireimat kasvu alates 2011.a aprillist


  • Suurbritannia töötlev tööstus on kasvamas ajaloolisest keskmisest kiiremini, kuigi veebruaris tempo mõnevõrra aeglustus

    UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Feb: 54.6 (est 55.8; rev prev 55.7)
  • FILLON WIFE IN CUSTODY, SEARCH ONGOING: MEDIAPART
  • BOFAML RAISES 2017 YEAR-END TARGET FOR S&P 500 TO 2450 VS 2300
  • FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FILLON SAYS BEEN INFORMED WILL BE SUMMONED ON MARCH 15 BY JUDICIAL MAGISTRATES
    FILLON SAYS SUMMON'S OBJECTIVE IS TO CHARGE HIM: BBG
    FILLON SAYS HE'S VICTIM OF 'POLITICAL ASSASSINATION': BBG
    FILLON SAYS HE DIDN'T COMMIT ANY WRONGDOING.
    FILLON SAYS INNOCENCE PRESUMPTION PRINCIPLE IS BEING IGNORED: BBG
    FRANCOIS FILLON STAYS IN FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL RACE
  • Põhimõtteliselt upgrade'ib BofAML S&P 500 targetit sentimendi baasil

    *BofAML equity and quant strategists including Savita Subramanian raise their 2017 year-end S&P 500 target to 2,450 from 2,300 to reflect increasing likelihood stocks entering typical later stages of bull market during which fundamentals take back seat to sentiment and technicals, they write in note.
    * “We think the market still has the potential to move higher as investors capitulate into equities:” BofAML
    * “Great Rotation” out of fixed income into equities has yet to happen
    * Expects the market to overshoot its fair value
    * Typically, in later stages of bull market, prices can become significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic fair value; divergence can last for years
    * Combination of improving investor sentiment, accelerating global growth and hopes for stimulus is driving stocks to new highs and compressing the equity risk premium, or ERP, faster than BofAML had assumed
    * ERP in process of undershooting as it typically does at end of bull markets
    * Watch out for volatility when the “Trump put” expires
  • Saksamaa inflatsioon kiirenes veebruaris 0,3pp võrra 2,2%ni (oodati 2,1%). Homme selgub eurotsooni näit.
  • USA alusinflatsioon püsis jaanuaris ootuspäraselt 1,7% peal (kuigi vahepeal prognoosis konsensus 0,1pp kiirenemist)
  • USA isiklik sissetulek oodatust parem, kulutused tagasihoidlikumad

    US Personal Income (MoM) Jan: 0.4% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)
    - Personal Spending (MoM) Jan: 0.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.5%)
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    WTW +20.6%, BGFV +18.2%, DAR +9.1%, LOW +8.5%, LOGM +7.5%, DY +5.7%, EVH +5.3%, (light volume), MACK +5.2%
    MYL +4.9%, MCHP +4.8%, FOLD +4.8%, MIDD +4.5%, CRH +4.5%, DPLO +4.4%, DLTR +4%, BLDR +3.9%, HLIT +3.7%
    PCRX +3.1%, KERX +2.4%, ODP +2.4%, EVEP +2.3%, BUFF +2.2%, BV +2.2%, TASR +1.9%, NAME +1.5%, WIN +1.5%
    AMC +1.4%, TCON +1.3%, DXCM +1.1%, ORA +1.1%, GTN +1.1%, MNK +1.1%
    M&A news:
    CLNE +33.1% ( sells the upstream portion of its renewable natural gas business to BP)
    TIME +9.1% (Bloomberg reporting that five suitors were asked to submit bids next week)
    TRCO +8.9% (said to have been approached by Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) about a possible combination, according to Reuters; also reported earnings)
    Select financial related names showing strength:
    DB +4.1%, CS +3.7%, SAN +2.4%, RBS +2.4%, MS +2.2%, C +2.1%, ING +2%, BAC +2%, GS +2%, WFC +1.5%
    Select metals producers trading higher:
    CLF +3.2%, X +3% (also VP/CFO that David Burritt has been elected Pres/COO), VALE +2.7%, BBL +2.3%, BHP +1.5%
    Select Gaming related names showing strength following release of Macau gaming revs rising 18% YoiY:
    MPEL +3.8%, WYNN +3.3%, LVS +3.3%, MGM +2.6%
    Other news:
    DVAX +28.9% (FDA has accepted for review its responses to the CRL issued by the FDA in November 2016 for the Biologics License Application for HEPLISAV-B; PDUFA action date of August 10, 2017)
    CLSD +14.6% (receives a NOA from the USPTO for methods of treating the posterior ocular disorder Uveitis)
    AGIO +3.7% (Agios Pharma and Celgene (CELG) announce that the FDA has accepted and granted priority review for the NDA for enasidenib)
    LXRX +3.5% (receives FDA approval for XERMELO)
    WLH +3.3% (will replace Arctic Cat in the S&P SmallCap 600)
    PRCX +3.1% (reports 'positive' topline results for phase 4 study of Exparel )
    AMD +2.9% (Advanced Micro and Bethesda Softworks announce partnership)
    OMER +2.5% (presents additional 'positive' data from the ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating OMS721)
    JKS +2.3% (entered into a Power Purchase Agreement with the Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Co)
    NVDA +1.8% (released GeForce GTX 1080 Ti)
    Analyst comments:
    MU +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
    KITE +1% (target raised to $85 at H.C. Wainwright)
    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:

    IPXL -21.1%, PANW -19.5%, BW -15.2%, ENPH -12.8%, CYBE -9.9%, SSW -9.2%, (also reduces quarterly dividend)
    CHUY -8.8%, AKRX -8.7%, SRPT -7.2%, NVDQ -7%, CFI -6.6%, CLNS -6%, ETSY -5.9%, AEO -5.4%, LQ -5.3%, GORO -3.5%
    CROX -3%, QUMU -2.8%, BBY -2.8%
    CBI -2.4%, ( enters into a definitive agreement to sell its Capital Services business to an affiliate of private equity investment firm Veritas Capital for $755 million in cash)
    BVN -2.4%, AMBA -2.3%, VSI -2.3%, PTLA -2%, TSRO -1.8%, VEEV -1.6%
    MXWL -1.6%, (Maxwell Tech to acquire substantially all of the assets and business of Nesscap for $23.175 million ), CRM -1%
    M&A news:
    IBKC -5.6% (IberiaBank to acquire Sabadell United Bank in a stock and cash transaction valued at $1.025 billion; to be accretive to EPS in 2018)
    Select Cyber Security related names showing weakness:
    PFPT -1.7%, CHKP -1.6%, FTNT -1.4%, SYMC -1%, CYBR -0.8%
    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:
    GG -1.8%, MUX -1.7%, GDX -1.4%, AG -1.3%, AEM -1.2%, EGO -1%, GFI -1%, ABX -0.9%, GLD -0.8%
    Other news:
    AKRX -8.7% ( received FDA approval for its ANDA for Mycophenolate Mofetil for Injection USP 500 mg/vial)
    NVS -3.4% (head of North America Operations and President of Novo Nordisk Inc. has resigned from the company)
    SFR -1.4% (light volume; commences public offering of 18,476,891 of its common shares, of which 10,476,891 common shares will be offered by certain selling shareholders)
    Analyst comments:
    AVT -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
    INTC -0.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein)

    Briefing.com
  • FORD FEB. U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE SALES DOWN 4%, EST. DOWN 4.3%
    GM FEB. U.S. AUTO SALES ROSE 4.2%, EST. UP 2.5%
    FIAT CHRYSLER FEB. U.S. AUTO SALES DOWN 10%, EST. DOWN 8.4%
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb: 57.7 (est 56.2; prev 56.0)
  • Suur IPO neljapäev
    Snap will be priced at $17/share

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