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Börsipäev 19. detsember

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  • Uue nädala esimesel börsipäeval sulgus Tallinna +0.16% indeks alustatust kõrgemal ning Riia -0.15% ja Vilniuse -0.72% indeksid miinuspoolel. Käibeks kujunes põhinimekirjas 514 tehinguga 967 tuhat eurot, millest Tallinna börsi käive moodustas 635 tuhat eurot ja Vilniuse börsi käive 228 tuhat eurot ning tehingute arvud olid vastavalt 282 ja 150.

    Suurimas mahus tehinguid tehti Tallink Grupp (0.00%) aktsiaga - käive 240 tuhat eurot ning tehingute arvuks oli 37. Tallinna Vesi (+3.26%) järgnes 98 tehinguga kogumahus 128 tuhat eurot. Olympic Entertainment Group (-0.55%) aktsiaga tehti 36 tehingut kogumahus 108 tuhat eurot.

    Tõusuga lõpetasid päeva vaid Skano Group (+7.24%, käive EUR 60) ja Tallinna Vesi (+3.26%, käive EUR 128k). Suurimad langejad olid Olainfarm (-3.15%, käive EUR 31k), SAF Tehnika (-2.39%, käive EUR 24k), Pieno žvaigždės (-2.34%, käive EUR 16k).
  • Näib, et aasta, mis USA börsidel on kujunemas niigi edukaks, tahetakse lõpetada võimsa spurdiga, kui taganttuult pakub tugev majandus, ettevõtete kasvavad kasumid ning lisaks oodatav maksureform. Olulisemad indeksid jätkasid eile uute tippude vallutamist: S&P 500 kosus 0,5%, Nasdaq 0,8% ja Dow Jones 0,6%. Viimase jaoks oli see 70. kord uut ajaloolist tippu tänavu saavutada, ületades varasemat 69 korra rekordit 1995.a. Sentiment oli esmaspäeval väga positiivne ka mujal maailmas, sh Euroopas, kus Stoxx 600 parandas taset 1,2%.

    Kui kevadel ja suvel võis USA kinnisvarasektoris täheldada müügiaktiivsuse aeglustumist, siis septembrist alates on turg uuesti elavnenud ning sellest annab aimu ka majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks, mis kerkis detsembris viie punkti võrra 74 punktile. Tegemist on kõrgeima tasemega alates 1999.a juulist (ületades seega isegi taset 2005.a kinnisvaramulli ajal) ning samuti ületas näitaja analüütikute 70punktist ootust. Ühest küljest toetab sektorit madal tööpuudus, endiselt põhja lähedal püsivad kinnisvaralaenude intressid ja olemasolevate majade madal varu, kuid lisaks toob küsitlust läbi viiva NAHBi juht välja regulatsioonide lõdvendamisi valitsuse poolt.

    USA majade ehitajate kindlustunde indeks


    Majandusuudiseid tänasesse päeva palju ei jagu, küll aga võib neid lugeda üsna oluliseks. Saksamaal selguvad ettevõtete kindlustunde indeksid ning Ühendriikides annavad alustatud elamuehituste ja ehituslubade statistika esimesi viiteid, milliseks kujunes kinnisvaraturu tegelik aktiivsus novembris ja kuidas võiks välja näha lähitulevik. USA esindajatekoda peaks maksueelnõu üle hääletama, senat teeb seda kas täna või homme.

    11.00 Saksamaa ettevõtete kindlustunde indeks (detsember)
    15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused ja väljastatud ehitusload (november)
  • Enne kui Doug Kass oma 2018.a potentsiaalsete üllatuste nimekirja teatavaks teeb, vaatab ta tagasi jooksvale aastale ning peab tõdema, et pole varem nõnda palju mööda pannud:

    Surprise No. 1: The New Year Starts Out On a Sour Note and Sets a Negative Market Tone for the Year as Sears Holdings Declares Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in Early January 2017-- WRONG
    Surprise No. 2: The Trump Election Victory Establishes an Important Precedent and Is Followed by a Broad and General Movement in Which Prominent Businessmen, Celebrities, Sports Figures and Others Without Prior Political or Military Experience Consider Political Office. -- RIGHT
    Surprise No. 3: Shortly After the Inauguration, Donald Trump's Security Advisers Convince Him to Cease Tweeting and to Close His Twitter Account (@realDonaldTrump). -- WRONG
    Surprise No. 4: "The Unartful Deal" -- President Trump's Popularity Quickly Fades as "The Dude (Doesn't ) Abide." -- RIGHT
    Surprise No. 5: Trump Grows Restless After Some Failed Initiatives and Loss of Support. He Begins to Lose Interest in His Job After He Finds Out How Hard It Is to Get Anything Done-- WRONG
    Surprise No. 6: Early in 2017, Higher Wages, Rising Interest Rates and Higher Input Prices Squeeze Profit Margins-- WRONG
    Surprise No. 7: The Stock Market Makes Its High in the First Two Weeks of January and Goes Downhill the Rest of the Year, Ending Down 15% for 2017. -- VERY WRONG
    Surprise No. 8: There Are No Fed Rate Increases in 2017 -- VERY WRONG
    Surprise No. 9: Yellen Resigns Under Pressure From the New Administration. -- WRONG (HOWEVER, SHE WAS RECENTLY REPLACED BY THE PRESIDENT)
    Surprise No. 10: "Quantitative Easing Endless" Becomes Reality and the Fed Sets the 10-Year Yield at 1.5% to 1.75%. -- VERY WRONG
    Surprise No. 11: "Brexit" Turns into "Bremain."-- WRONG
    Surprise No. 12: In a Weakening Stock Market, the Burgeoning ETF Business Suffers Instability After a Series of Stock Market Mini "Flash Crashes." -- VERY WRONG
    Surprise No. 13: Drill, Baby, Drill.-- VERY RIGHT
    Surprise No. 14: Apple Is Still Crapple -- VERY WRONG
    Surprise No. 15: Goodbye, "Peak Autos" -- Car Industry Sales Don't Peak and Have Another Ramp Higher - RIGHT
  • Saksamaa ettevõtete hinnang majanduse jooksvale olukorrale kerkis detsembris punkti võrra 125,4 punktile, ületades analüütikute 124,7punktist ootust. Hinnang järgnevale poolaastale tuli pisut alla, alanedes 1,5 punkti 109,5 punktile vs oodatud 110,7 punkti.


    Kui vaadata indekseid koos üldindeksina (detsembris 117,2 punkti vs 117,6 punkti novembris), siis peaks selle baasil tooma neljas kvartali kaasa kiirema SKP kasvu, kui 2,8% kolmandas kvartalis. Väike pöördumine kvartali lõpus toimus, kuid tase jääb ajalooliselt endiselt väga kõrgeks.
  • Aftekalt:

    CEO of cryptocurrency play up 1,000% in 2 days to $3.1 billion: 'This market cap is not justified'
    Longfin's CEO and Chairman Venkat Meenavalli said on CNBC's "Fast Money" that the "market cap is not justified."
    Longfin shares are up more than 1,000 percent to a market value above $3 billion after announcing Friday it was buying Ziddu.com, a company focused on the blockchain technology behind bitcoin with zero revenue.
    Filings for the deal reveal a confusing relationship between Meenavalli and Ziddu.


  • Saksa ettevõtete kindlustunde küsitlust korraldava IFO sõnul ei tasu ootuste indeksi langust väga tõsiselt analüüsida, majanduses on seis juba niigi hea

    IFO Economist Wohlrabe: Uncertainty Has Increased, Business Waiting For German Government To Form
    IFO Economist Wohlrabe: Should Not Read Too Much Into IFO Drop, If Situation Is Very Good, Its Difficult To See Further Improvement
  • Nasdaq tiirutas eile 7000 punkti piiril, mis on küll nominaalselt uus tipp aga arvestades inflatsiooni, siis tuleks 2000.a rekordi löömiseks liikuda 7275 punktini.
  • öeldakse ju, et aktsiaturg on majanduse peegelpilt

  • Weidmann otseselt ei välista kandideerimist EKP juhi kohale 2019.a

    ECB WEIDMANN: EXPANSIVE MONETARY POLICY STILL APPROPRIATE
    ECB WEIDMANN: FASTER END OF BOND BUYS WITH CLEAR END DATE 'JUSTIFIABLE'
    WEIDMANN: 'CLEARLY TOO EARLY' TO DISCUSS SUCCEEDING DRAGHI AS ECB HEAD
  • ymeramees
    Aftekalt:

    CEO of cryptocurrency play up 1,000% in 2 days to $3.1 billion: 'This market cap is not justified'
    Longfin's CEO and Chairman Venkat Meenavalli said on CNBC's "Fast Money" that the "market cap is not justified."
    Longfin shares are up more than 1,000 percent to a market value above $3 billion after announcing Friday it was buying Ziddu.com, a company focused on the blockchain technology behind bitcoin with zero revenue.
    Filings for the deal reveal a confusing relationship between Meenavalli and Ziddu.




    Oli mõte seda nii 14:30 shortida, aga õnneks sai short enne otsa. Võib ju olla low 40-high 30's, aga samuti võib olla ka 80 ja keegi ei imestaks ka.
  • USA alustatud elamuehitused kasvasid novembris MoM 3,3% annualiseeritult 1297 tuhandeni, rohkem kui oodatud 1250 tuhat, Väljastatud ehitusload alanesid -1,4% 1298 tuhandeni, mis ületas samuti ootust (1270 tuhat).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:

    NAV +10.2%, DRI +2.7%, SOL +2.3%,
    M&A news:
    CBI +9.8% (To merge with MDR; Settles agreement with Cameron LNG)
    VIPS +2.4% (Continuation following Monday announcement that Tencent is investing in the company)
    Other news:
    OTIV +22.7% (Following Monday's 120% move higher),
    CLNT +15.8% (Enters into share and purchase agreement with AnyWorkspace to expand coworking space business),
    RIOT +9.3% (Continued strength after 28% move higher on Monday),
    CARS +9.3% (Jumps on Starboard 9.9% active stake disclosure),
    NXTD (Subsidiary Fit Pay & Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZBY) reach agreement to extend contactless payment capabilities to a range of new devices)
    AMPE +8.1% (Continued strength after 25% move higher),
    SCMP +6.6% (Initiated with Buy and $43 tgt at Nomura / Instinet),
    KTOS +6.2% (Announces its Unmanned Systems Division recently received a single award IDIQ contract, with a $27 million ceiling from a U.S. Government Agency related to unmanned drone systems),
    NMM +4.2% (Still Checking),
    MDGL +2.3% (Prices public offering of 1,506,025 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $83.00 per share)
    ESRX +0.7% (Board adds 45 mln shares to repurchase authorization).
    Analyst comments:
    SCMP +6.6% (Initiated with a Buy at Nomura; tgt $43),
    MTCH +3% (Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim),
    GM +1.4% (Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts),
    KORS +1.3% (Initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $69),
    NSA +1.1% (Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo),
    CL +0.7% (Upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie).
    Gapping down
    Other news:
    AKER -62% (Prices $6 mln offering of units, Shares fall to $0.15 from $0.40),
    LFIN -23.5% (after surging 200%+ higher; CEO gave a disappointing interview on CNBC Fast Money),
    NVAX -11.4% (continues Phase 3 trial of the RSV F Vaccine for infants via maternal immunization and provides update on Phase 1/2 Trial of the NanoFlu Vaccine; Also downgraded at Citigroup),
    YTEN (Announces 6.03 mln stock offering),
    MARA -9.3% (to sell 1,354,546 shares of common stock for gross proceeds of approximately $7,450,000),
    DPW -4.5% (files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering),
    CIO -3.8% (commences 4 mln common stock offering),
    MB -3.2% (lower following block trade pricing ),
    OSTK -3% (Overstock.com's blockchain subsidiary tZERO commences $250 mln Token Sale; announces pre-sale for institutional investors),
    TNDM -1.5% ( files for approx $10.7 mln mixed securities shelf offering),
    MON -1.2% (Early weakness being attributed to reports that EU may seek further concessions tied to review of pending BAYRY merger).
    Analyst comments:
    FNKO -3.1% (Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets),
    AAPL -0.9% (Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura; tgt lowered to $175 from $185).

    Briefing.com

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