Laevandus
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Running rate sensitivities on DHT is very simple, as we only have VLCCs. An increase in rates of $10,000 per day means $90 million in increased cash per year. To bring this down to an earnings-per-share level, if we get rates in the mid-$60,000s, which we saw in 2015, we should generate [full-year] earnings of not too far from $2.50 per share. That’s a big number.”
Panen enda jaoks ka -
Nagu ikka, uued huvitavad raportid väljas.
Mis huvitav, näiteks 10 kõrgema tasuga VLCC tühistati, scrubberite paigaldused ja hooldused lükati tänu hinna rallile edasi.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/gibson-tanker-report-pulling-out/
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Weber-Weekly-42-19.pdf
(klick paremal pildil ja käsklus ava uues aknas) -
TNK upgrade 2.5$
-
Lõpetasin pos hinnaga 2,236$
-
DHT tulemused, sama, mis q2, tõsteti div.
The Company’s VLCCs achieved time charter equivalent earnings of $25,500 per day in the third quarter of 2019
of which the Company’s VLCCs on time-charter earned $33,700 per day and the Company’s VLCCs operating in
the spot market achieved $24,300 per day.
Ehk kes viitsinud teemat jälgida, siis hetke tasud nende q3 omadega võrreldes 3-4x.
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $36.0 million. Net lossfor the quarter of $9.4 million or loss of $0.07 per basic
share. Adjusted for a non-cash change in fair value related to interest rate derivatives of $1.5 million, net loss
would be $7.9 million, equivalent to loss of $0.06 per basic share
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/3e33edfd-a380-4268-b0af-34dd852f29a4 -
Thus far in the fourth quarter of 2019, 49% of the available VLCC spot days have been booked at an average rate
of $61,700 per day. -
Uus uudiskiri väljas, nagu ikka esmaspäeva hommikul.,
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/TMR-2019-10-25-Fuelling-the-Future.pdf -
Ajalooliselt ikka hinnad kõrged, kuigi hinna hüppelt kõva tagasi langus ja võib veel kukkuda. Suezmax tasuvuse määr all in all 20 000$/päev, seega 62K toob ca 40 000 päevas sisse. (olid ka ajad, kui laeva sai 7000$ eest päevas)
-
Euronavi-il tulemused väljas, eps -0,11.
Huvitavam osa vast siin tabelis ja Q4 hinnad raportist. -
q4
VLCC- 60 900 USD 60% -ga
Suezmaxi laevad 27 300 USD millest bronn 48% -
Euronav Hollandi foorumist ka pärl.
Laevandus on ja jääb alati ettearvamatuks.
Mõistlikud inimesed ei osta laevandusega seotud aktsiaid. -
Nagu ikka, 0.00 uued info kirjad väljas:
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Weber-Weekly-45-19.pdf
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/TMR-2019-11-08-Not-Sold-for-Scrap.pdf
Hetkel ei oma laevanduse firmasid, küll aga tuleb ette kauplemist ;) -
DSSI jäi alla, mis huvitav, siis üks scrubber ca 3,25M ja paigaldus võtab aega 50-60 päeva.
-
TNK tulemused väljas, väga palju toimus, võla edasi lükkamine , 1:8 tagurpidi splitt 25 nov ja täna tuleb veel investorite päeva üritus.
-
TNK upgrade buy ja +9% pre hind 2,6$
-
Aastaga alates postituste algust 30.10.2018 on aktsia tõusnud üle 100%, maksis siis 1,03$.
-
2 upgrade oli ka
Teekay Tankers upgraded two notches to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill. BofA/Merrill analyst Ken Hoexter issued a double-upgrade on Teekay Tankers to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $3, up from $2. Despite the 83% run-up in the stock price since October, the analyst contends that shares can "re-rate higher" with crude tanker markets current being in the "early stages of a robust recovery" and given the company's "attractive operating leverage" to rate inflections. Hoexter adds that Teekay's mid-sized vessels will also benefit from an improving crude tanker market, with the current tanker demand expected at 6% FY20 that should "materially outpace muted fleet supply growth of 1-2%." Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2995203
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2995203 -
Ja see on taas hea näide analüütikute analüüsi võimest, kas keegi ütles põhjas, kui aktsia maksis 1$, et on hea ostu koht :) See analüütik oskab näiteks öelda, millal osta, aga kuhu jäi tipu hinnang müük (sell) https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/ken-hoexter
-
Need on geniaalsed vennad. Ma usun, et sellise töö eest saab korralikku palka.
JAN 2014 Buy (TNK $2,83)
MAY 2014 Sell (TNK $2,70, vahepeal oli küll 3,75, aga mis siis sellest)
Ja peale seda pani hind muidugi kohe üles :) -
2.59$ pre tõus müüdi miinus 3% peale. Täiuslik sisse imemine.
-
So far in 2019,
40 Aframaxes/LR2s,
28 Suezmaxes
26 VLCCs have been ordered.
There have been no orders for Panamaxes/LR1s.
200 units ordered in 2017 and 155 in 2018
Of all segments, the Suezmax orderbook is the largest, at 10.1% in relationship to its current size. The VLCC orderbook is marginally lower, at 9.6%. Aframaxes/LR2s have 8.7% of the existing fleet on order, while the orderbook for MRs stands at 6.6%, -
Jäi silma, sobib inimesele, kes tahaksid veidi detailsemalt, samas lühidalt omada esmased teadmised tankeritest
https://www.euronav.com/media/65361/special-report-2017-eng.pdf -
uurisin ka kütuse kulusid, VLCC ca 100T/päev ja suezmax 57 ning afra 51.
uus kütus on 2 x kallim, kui vana kärakas, hetkel kuskil 35K peale läheb suezmaxi tasuvus ja 50K juures VLCC (lisandub 25K) -
NAT tulemused väljas, raport selline, et muud joga nii palju, et esimene EPS mida näen, näitab ka 9 kuu oma. Selle firma raportid on kõige jubedamad kiidu laulud, kui hea dividendi firma, kui head laevad (kõige vanemad).
AS OF THE DATE OF THIS REPORT, ABOUT 70% OF THE SPOT TRADING DAYS OF OUR FLEET FOR 4Q19 HAVE BEEN BOOKED AT AN AVERAGE TCE OF $34,000/DAY. SPOT RATES ARE CONTINUING ITS UPWARD
MOMENTUM. THE TIME CHARTER EQUIVALENT (TCE) FOR OUR SHIPS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER CAME IN
AT $15,900/DAY, WHICH WAS BETTER THAN BOTH THE SECOND QUARTER THIS YEAR AT $14,800/DAY AND
THE THIRD QUARTER LAST YEAR THAT SAW $12,000/DAY. -
LPG VLGC ettevõtted rallivad Norra börsil.
BW LPG tulemused väga tugevad ja juba tõstavad dividendi.
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/489871
AVANCE tulemused homme. -
Anace oli päris head määrad lukus, 80% Q3 peast pannes.
Kuna seal aga on aktsiat lahjendatud, siis 100 siit niipea ei usu, kusjuures see pakkumine tehti suht halval ajal. -
Avance
1. The average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate calculated on a discharge-to-discharge basis was $44,295/day, up from $34,520/day in Q2 2019
2. Approx. 88% of Q4 ship days have been fixed at an average rate exceeding $50,000/day.
The freight markets remained firm in Q3 as the US LPG exports continued to grow, while the fleet growth continued at modest levels.
3.US Gulf and USEC VLGC exports were 8.5 million tons in Q3 2019, up from 8.3 million tons in Q2 2019 and 7.0 million in Q3 2018
4. Gaaside puhastuse süsteemist loodetakse saada kütuse kulu võitu 2-5K päevas. -
Päris paljud on sillas hetke laeva tasu määradest, aga kes pole uudiseid lugenud, siis reaalselt paljud on Q3 pannud juba uue kütuse sisse süsteemide puhastamiseks ning paljuski on tõus tingitud sellest. Uus kütus on hinnalt 2x kallim, seal 550 juures tonn. Meenutuseks Euronav jutt aastast 2009 (ei paista nende määradega kasum just nii suur tulevat, kui analüütikud ootavad)
With bunker prices rising significantly since 2009, there has been a renewed emphasis on fuel conservation on the part of end users of tankers. All ships operate in the voyage market for someone, either the owner, or the operator/oil major or the trader to whom they have been time chartered. For a VLCC, daily consumption of bunkers could be up to 100 tonnes (sometimes even more) per day laden at full speed (15 knots), with a cost of US$60,000 at today’s bunker price ($600 per tonne) which represents the bulk of the voyage costs. This can be compared with the cost of time chartering a VLCC for one year at $18,000 per day or owners standard operating expenses of $12,000 per day (excluding any depreciation of the asset, amortisation of debt and interest cost).
If the gross daily return for a VLCC is US$78,000 per day, then, after voyage costs, the return to an operator of a time charter-in vessel is zero and for an owner operator only US$6,000 per day. Not enough to pay debt service or any other investment return. -
TNK siis aasta algusest tõusnud 3x. Vana hinna järgi käis ära 3, enda viimane müük 2,2 ehk vara nagu ikka. Lihtsalt vähene kogemus asjadega, mis nii püstloodis liiguvad.
-
Kas TNK oktoobri trend lõppeb?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tBWi6WiP/
Fundamentaal muidu püsib, ainuke küsimus on, et kas nendesse hindadesse pole juba kõik sisse arvetatud. -
Kulu muutus 12K pealt 30K peale-suezmax tankeril,
By the first week of December, most clean owners with non-scrubber fitted tankers had converted bunkering tanks to the compliant VLSFO, and thus began and are continuing to calculate their time charter equivalent rates for spot voyages, particularly the long-haul runs, on the more expensive 0.5% bunker fuel. -
Saab huvitav lugemine olema, see vend lasi ajastamisega paar aastat jalga (noh nagu mina) ja eile sain just Peter raamatu läbi, eeldan hirmsat üleskiitmist, arvestades, kaua ta seal kannatanud. FRO peaks ta olema korraliku litri saanud oma lühikesega. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839737-j-mintzmyer/5389270-peter-lynch-loves-shipping-stocks
-
Visahing
Allied weekly 21dec (24.12.2018) äge oli nüüd lugeda ja vaadata muutusi, tea palju seda teemat siin üldse inimesi jägib, aga enda päevikut pean edasi.
suezmax 82K, 58K
aframax
66K, 21K,41K,63K
Täna 24.12.2019 -
Päris huvitav lugemine, eriti, olla tankeris sügavalt sees ja siis küsida nõu Toomaselt, kes ei ütle, palju laevu lisandub, palju väheneb jne :) https://www.aripaev.ee/investor-toomas/2020/01/05/kui-kaua-tankerifirmade-muusika-mangib
-
Mina küsisin jah, aga ega ma midagi põrutavat uut lootnudki teada saada, lihtsalt Toomase seisukoht on huvitav - et kas ta suudab antud teemal mõne ohumärgi leida. Ikka päris keeruline on hetkel leida argumenti, et positsiooni vähendada. Üldiselt võib veel pool aastat rahulikult sees istuda.
Ja kohe järgmine artikkel paar pärva hiljem otsa, aga märksa optimistlikuma tooniga: https://www.aripaev.ee/borsiuudised/2020/01/06/vaavlikarbe-annab-tankeritele-hoogu -
Toomase käest ei tasu laevade kohta uurida, see ikka väga keerukas teema, loe parem tema kirjutisi, olen paar aastat jälginud, spetsialist. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315187-shipping-outlook-2020-part-2-of-6-focus-crude-tankers?fbclid=IwAR1IDgZFKw5k_9kpo6_kuwReQs0hzyyw1zQUZOVXef-ziZSk2RLg7QLGZW0
Tegelikult laevu lisandub ja keegi vanarauda ei müü neid 20 aastaseid, see on reaalne erinevus haibist ja slaididest. -
Jõudsin ka kommini, kus James vastab lugeja küsimusele, mõte sama mis mul.
James Catlin
Comments1924 | Following
Author’s reply » Hello CaptKorn,
Thank you for reading and taking the time to ask for some additional info.
So, the scrapping market has been dead as of late in the crude tanker space. My data over at VesselsValue shows just four VLCCs retired last year with June of 2019 being the most recent.
In the back half of 2019 only three Suezmaxes (one being a shuttle) and a single Aframax were beached.
This low level of scrapping was actually predicted by me, almost a few years ago now, which came in stark contrast to other's forecasts.
My stance has not changed in several years: I have maintained that the degree of retirements induced by this mandate will be directly related to the cost of bunker fuel and older vessel maintenance balanced against any rise (or fall) in charter rates.
Rates are good and I predicted that bunker costs would not hit those astronomical levels that others predicted. All this led me to conclude that scrapping activity would likely remain muted in segments experiencing a bull run where rates were able to compensate for higher on the water costs. -
Esimesed punased ja tabelis, tundub, et puistelasti vedajatel ikka korralik krahh ja arvestades siin lahvatanud sõda, eriti vast paremaks ka ei lähe. Laevanduses on kõik kiire muutuma, nii tõus kui langus ja investorite-spekulantide meeleolu käib seinast seina, hetkel jaotakse juba mega dividende, arvestamata sellega, et kaks aastat on korraliku lossi sisse saadud. Mingil huvitaval põhjusel Euronav tekib vahendeid isegi juurde, kuigi otsest vajadust nagu ei näe- küll aeg näitab. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ALLIED-Weekly-Market-Report_05_01_2020.pdf
-
Viimasest raportist tuleb välja, et kes panid scrubberid ja maksid 1M on võitjad.
The spread between high and low-sulphur fuel oil has surged to a record levels in the days following the implementation of IMO 2020 .he price of very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) is trading close to twice
the value of conventional high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).That is expected to provide a fillip for stocks of shipping companies with a high number of of scrubber-fitted vessels, which are expected to earn a charter premium.
In Singapore, spot prices for VLSFO have reached $756 per tonne,
against an HSFO price of $386, according to Fearnley Securities.
Since mid-2017, the spread has traded in a range of $150 to $250 per
tonne, according to data from BIMCO/Marine Bunker Exchange
(MABUX). -
Jah, Sinu viide on hea aga ikka ei aita jahutada mu optimismi :)
Ja minu tänase päeva lemmik: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315429-j-mintzmyer-positions-for-2020-shipping-is-looking-strong?isDirectRoadblock=false&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
A lot of people look at tankers now and naturally think "oh, they've already run" because a lot of the names have moved up 50% or more in 2019. I had a lot of people tell me the same thing about Dorian (LPG) last June, when I was pounding the table at $8 and folks complained it "already ran" from $5. Dorian trades in the $15s now and it still isn't really expensive considering underlying asset values and cash flows.
There are many names in similar situations, such as Euronav (EURN), which is one of our top picks for 2020 (along with 11 other names) at Value Investor's Edge). EURN is a name that "already ran" from $8 to $13, but if these sorts of rates persist, EURN could generate more than $5 in free cash flow in a single year, pay dividends of up to $1/quarter, and easily trade into the $20s or higher. There are lots of risks if rates fail to persist of course, but the upside leverage on many of these names is extraordinary. -
Eks minu asi pole kedagi veenda, olen ka kunagi loll olnud, liiga palju S.A suvalisi uskunud, kuna ükskord selle sama tankeriga sai -50K vee all oldud, on mul see maailm julgelt tehtud endale paremini selgeks, kui igal 3ndal kommijal seal S.A. Olen saanud ka naiivsusest lahti, et kõike, mis kirjutatakse, ei tasu uskuda, lihtsalt ma tean momente, milllest keegi ei räägi. Herb NAT pumpab asja rääkides asjadest nii, et tankeri kulu olekski vaid OPEX - jah, isegi tankeri omanikud ajavad mula, eriti see vend. Andis teada 100K fixed aastaks, tasuks vaadata viimast uudiskirja, mis hinnaga kui pikaks ajaks tanker fikseeriti jne. Hetke suurim pump tankeri hindades on tulnud kütuse hinna tõusust. Tankereid lisandub, mitte ei kao ära, need slaidid hetkel selliste hindadega ei kehti, kus ka usutavad firmad rääkivad, et 20 aastane laev on vanaraud. Jah, selle hooldus maksab rohkem, aga 50K juures päevas, iga 50 nädala tagant sellele hooldus teha ei ole probleem ja see 2m sirgu lasta. Lisaks on tankeri sektoris hooajad, pole siiani tankereid suvel sellise hinnaga näinud ja sügiseks on see suurem scrubberi teema juba möödas. Targemad võtavad selle 3x tõusu peale kasumit ja ootavad nüüd fundamentaali järgi, asjad hetkel on positiivsed, aga hetkel pendel on liiga ühte külge lennanud.
-
TNK -8% pump and damp
-
Puitselasti vedajate seis
he Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index inched down on Thursday, falling for its 21st straight session, to an over eight-month low on lower demand across all vessels.
The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, declined 1 point, or 0.1%, to 772 points, its lowest level since April 17, 2019.
This is the smallest daily percentage fall since the index started its slide on Dec. 4.
The capesize index fell 42 points, or 3.5%, to 1,155 – its lowest since May 7.
Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, increased $179 to $9,199.
The panamax index declined 18 points, or 2.2%, to 785 points, its lowest since Feb. 27.
Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, dipped $160 to $7,063.
The supramax index fell 12 points to 581.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Harshith Aranya in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri) -
Oilprice kinnitab ka veel üle hetke seisu.
Dry bulk shipping rates at 3-year low. The global dry bulk freight market is surprisingly weak, with rates at a 3-year low. “The weakness in the market now is something unlike we have ever seen,” a market participant told S&P Global Platts. -
Madala väävlisisaldusega kütusele üleminek 01.01.20 alates, 60000 ookeanialust.
"Shipping executives say the low-sulfur (ÜRO/IMO) directive alone will add around $50 billion in new fuel costs over the next three to four years, and they say they plan to pass the expenses on to cargo customers.
Low-sulfur fuel in Singapore, one of the world’s biggest refueling hubs, was quoted this week at an average $670 a ton, 64% higher than the $409 a ton for the heavy oil, known in the maritime sector as bunker, that has long powered ships. Bunkering brokers said the price spread is at least 10% higher than shipowners originally expected, but the gap is expected to narrow over the next couple of months." ja "Fuel represents up to half of a ship’s operating expenses, and some operators will see their earnings take a hit this year as the cost is absorbed through supply chains. “If shipping companies take on all the cost, they will collapse,” said Kitack Lim, secretary-general of the IMO
Some vessel operators, especially tanker owners, have chosen to limit their sulfur emissions with scrubbers." -WSJ -
Opex, eks see nii on jah, VLCC näiteks tarbib 100T päevas, suezmax 50T.
100x 600=60K
Mis paljud ära unustavad, siis TNk rääkis juba suvel, et topivad uue kütuse Q4 juba sisse.
Suezmax võtab 4000 peale ehk 2 kuud seilab, seega klapib tankeri hindade ralli ja kütuse tankimise aeg.
Kulu suurust peegeldab charter ja spot rate vahe.
See Euronavi 2009 fail selgitab hästi (kütuse hind laeva jaoks sama suuruses) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JoM1L7VUii1OMz8RqbkNAs1ePPmUhG-M/view?usp=sharing -
Ja hinnad alla sõidavad https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Weber-Weekly-03-20.pdf
Ja õpetus algajatele, selliseid lauseid nähes loe: pakkumine ületab nõudlust.
There were 23 fixtures reported this week, bringing the January cargo tally near
completion at 133, while February got underway with 14 reported fixtures thus far. This
leaves another 30 or so cargoes remaining through the first decade of February
compared to a position list with some 50 vessels available over that same period.
Disclimer: Ei oma, aga kauplen usinalt tehniliselt mõlemat poolt (eelistus lühike ) -
TanelKutti
Jah, Sinu viide on hea aga ikka ei aita jahutada mu optimismi :)
Ja minu tänase päeva lemmik: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315429-j-mintzmyer-positions-for-2020-shipping-is-looking-strong?isDirectRoadblock=false&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
A lot of people look at tankers now and naturally think "oh, they've already run" because a lot of the names have moved up 50% or more in 2019. I had a lot of people tell me the same thing about Dorian (LPG) last June, when I was pounding the table at $8 and folks complained it "already ran" from $5. Dorian trades in the $15s now and it still isn't really expensive considering underlying asset values and cash flows.
There are many names in similar situations, such as Euronav (EURN), which is one of our top picks for 2020 (along with 11 other names) at Value Investor's Edge). EURN is a name that "already ran" from $8 to $13, but if these sorts of rates persist, EURN could generate more than $5 in free cash flow in a single year, pay dividends of up to $1/quarter, and easily trade into the $20s or higher. There are lots of risks if rates fail to persist of course, but the upside leverage on many of these names is extraordinary.
Kas optimis on veidi jahtunud 2 nädalat hiljem kui stock - 25%? -
Stabiilsus
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2020-01-24-Libyan-Losses.pdf
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Weber-Weekly-04-20.pdf
