Naftakarud, andke alla!
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täne nafta puurtorni uudis
The US oil and gas rig count fell again this week, according to Baker Hughes, continuing the downward trend with a drop of 8 rigs for the week, according to Baker Hughes. This week marks ten decreases out of the last eleven weeks.
The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 822, or 245 down from this time last year. -
Oilfield services scrap equipment. Bloomberg reports that the surplus of fracking equipment is being stripped for parts and sold off, rather than merely being idled. The industry is expected to use around 13 million horsepower at the end of 2019, out of 25 million horsepower available. Bloomberg reports that around 2.2 million horsepower – about 10 percent of industry capacity – is headed for the scrap heap.
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Poisid, ärge seda ilusat vaidlust nüüd ära lõpetage. Lõbus on kohe lugeda. Ma olen alates 2013 a maagaasiga kaubelnud (algul DGAZ/UGAZ paarid, hiljem KOLD/BOIL optsioonid) ja sellise tuima töö kõrvale on meelelahutust hädasti vaja :) Tänud ette.
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Sa Kaido viska hoopis meil ja loome grupi, kus saab reaalselt mõtteid vahetada, viitsid, viska meil : visahing@hotmail.com. Ega siia +10% liikumistega ideede viskamise eest saab alati karistada (Matteli vend lubas oma kleidi ära süüa, kui miski 14$ ei maksa nädalalõpuks-nii juhtub inimestega, kes tehnilist beati ei jaga ja peavad ennast maailma nabaks ja ridade vahelt mõtet otsides). Gaasi teemasse tulles, siis tegelikult talv ja suvi korduvad ja ka liikumise mustrid.
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Ja muidugi on siit ka kohe näha, millised dramaatilised liikumised just viimastel kuudel puurtornide sulgemistel on. Nali. -
Ei otsi AR ja puurtornide vahel, neid ma jälgin nafta tankerite pärast ja osalt ka sellepärast, et gaasitootjate vedelikud on lingitud WTI hinnaga, aga no pea ma sulle ka sööki koguaeg lauale tassima, hari ennast ise.
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ymeramees
Lugedes saab ka targaks ja siit ka minu point lausele pikk.
Rule 8: Experienced traders are like guerrilla soldiers. They jump out at just the right time, take their profit, and get out.
The stock market is controlled by machines and highly sophisticated algorithms and, as a result, there is considerable high frequency trading. High frequency trading creates significant noise in the price action and is specifically designed to shake out retail traders like you and me. You must be smart. Don’t expose yourself to them. Profitable traders usually make only two or three trades each day. They then cash out and enjoy the rest of their day. -
*CHESAPEAKE ENERGY ISSUES GOING CONCERN WARNING IN 10-Q FILING $CHK
Siit edasi on $CHKQ ja siis varsti taas $CHK uute aktsionäride ja võlausaldajatega. Kes Peabody Energy ei mäleta, elab tulevikuta. -
Gaasikad täies hoos, kui ilm peab, asi rallib.
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Ise lühikese nööriga lühike rrc ja swn.
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Shordid kinni rrc @3000, 4,97-4,66
Swn tuli 0,1 aktsia kohta 5000tk. See on lihtsalt näide, et tasub olla valdkonnas. -
Kui Hiina U. S miskit pekki ei keera, on uue nädala alguse ilm hea pullidele. https://www.natgasweather.com/
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Paistab, et suure ja väikse Peetri mäng hakkab vaikselt otsa saama. (allikas oilprice info kiri)
Frac sand miners squeezed by drilling slowdown. Frac sand supplier Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR) issued a “going concern” warning on Friday, admitting that it may not be able to survive the shale drilling slowdown. On Monday, the company’s share price plunged by almost 48 percent. While shale drillers cut drilling to reduce expenses, all of the ancillary services related to fracking are bearing the brunt. “If you look at Permian frack sand prices, we estimate they are down about 80% from the peak,” Joseph Triepke, president of consultancy Infill Thinking, told Reuters.
Total CEO never believed in shale. Total SA (NYSE: TOT) CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he his company stayed away from shale, and that he “never believed in flexible short-term capex,” he said, adding that “it’s not true.” He said that companies in shale have to commit a “quite heavy” capex program, and despite the gold rush mentality, profits have been elusive. Total, on the other hand, is focusing on LNG and deepwater.
Goldman: Shale’s struggles are bullish. Goldman Sachs is out with a note arguing that “what’s bad for the micro is good for the macro,” meaning that the individual struggles by an array of shale companies will translate into slower production growth, which will sow the seeds of an oil price rally in a year or two. After third quarter earnings, the investment bank said that it’s clear that capital is becoming scarce, discipline from companies is apparent, and productivity data is mixed. Goldman reiterated Buy ratings for EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), and Sell ratings for Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN).
D: püüan nuga lisades. AR, tees, et kolmapäev tuleb külma litakas ja neljapäeval "üllatuslikult" gaasi ladu alla 5 aasta keskmist. -
See pilt ka öde, hala kõik pealkirjad täis, aga iga aasta on tavaliselt selle koha peal hakanud ladu vähenema, eks neljapäev saab näha.
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Huvitav fakt aukude ja toodangu vahel
JBC Energy offers some interesting details on how it views 2020. The firm sees U.S. shale growing by 780,000 bpd in 2020, a figure that it arrives at by assuming the industry completes 1,270 wells per month, not far off from the recent pace of drilling.
But the output growth is surprisingly sensitive. “However, a mere 5% deviation to the downside from our forecast to roughly 1,200 completions per month from October 2019 onwards would eliminate [month-on-month] supply growth and reduce 2020 [year-on-year] growth to 350,000 b/d,” JBC Energy wrote.
In other words, it doesn’t take much of a pullback in drilling to dramatically cut into production growth. The reason is obvious and well-known – shale wells decline precipitously soon after they come online, requiring a frenzied pace of drilling to grow production overall. JBC said it found “additional indications that this treadmill is accelerating” in North Dakota.
“The initial gas-to-oil ratio and the water cut is higher in and growing faster over the life of a well drilled at a later stage than in an older well. This points towards steeper decline rates moving forwards,” JBC concluded. “The risk regarding supply additions is also skewed to the downside as initial production rates may suffer from the fact that the sweetest spots have already been drilled.” -
üle tühi aja esimene viide talve saabumisest.
Today’s EIA weekly nat gas storage report printed a draw of -94 Bcf, larger than market expectations of -89 Bcf. The build decreased supplies to 3,638 Bcf and flipping surpluses back to deficits of -60 Bcf. -
3 võrra vähenes tornide arv täna. Mõned aktsiad teevad põhjast +10% tõusu. Osad futuurid vahetusid jaanuari peale.
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See on moment, millest palju räägitud, et kasvu ei saa sedasi edasi rahastada.
ExxonMobil’s credit outlook cut on high spending. Moody’s Investors Service cut ExxonMobil’s (NYSE: XOM) debt outlook to negative, due to a “substantial” cash burn. The oil major is taking on debt in order to finance a heavy spending program, aimed at ramping up development in Guyana and the Permian, and the company is borrowing to cover its dividend. “The company’s high level of growth capital investments cannot be funded with operating cash flow and asset sales at projected levels given ExxonMobil’s substantial dividend payout,” Moody’s said. The ratings agency projects Exxon’s negative cash flow at $7 billion this year and a further $9 billion next year. -
Gaasist üks huvitav perspektiiv.
Then there is Canada. Although glacially slow to free itself from dependence on the US market, the FID taken on Canada LNG last year was a major step forward. The project is expected to give the country export capacity of about 13 mtpa from 2023, but there are a number of other LNG projects close to FID on both the west and east coasts, which could turn Canada into a significant market player by the mid-2020s.
Based on US Energy Information data for plants under construction or for which a formal FID has been taken – a relatively conservative measure - US liquefaction capacity should rise from 55 mtpa currently to 116.5 mtpa by 2024. -
According to the EIA's latest Short Term Energy Outlook, total US crude oil supply is expected to average 12.3 million bbl/day this year, rising to 13.3 million in 2020, up 120,000 bbl/day from its previous forecast.
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Ajalugu, päris vapustav tõhususe tõus.
Vaatamiseks parem klikk ja ava uues aknas
D: info sõltlane -
Kukub endiselt, saab näha millal tulemused. Üks huvitav asi veel , kellel teema võõras, siis tegelikult USA rekordid pole ainult õli või nafta vaid vedelikud kokku (gaasi tootmisel erinevad vedelgaasid).
The total oil and gas rig count now stands below 800 for the first time since March 2017, at 799, or 276 down from this time last year. -
Väga huvitav ja loogiline kuulamine ja lugemine - bull case naftale.
https://www.macrovoices.com/guest-content/list-guest-publications/3349-macro-voices-presentation-mark-gordon-2019-12-05/file -
Väike ennustus ka uueks aastaks S&P Global Platts
OIL PRICES
Low oil inventories, deeper OPEC-plus output cuts and IMO 2020 will see crude oil prices rise in early 2020, with the price influence of IMO 2020 expected to peak in March-May. This strength will likely enable Brent to break above $65/barrel, before falling back to the low $60s/barrel by end-2020 as IMO support fades. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will likely break through $60/barrel in early 2020, before dropping back to the high-$50s/barrel.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/sp-global-platts-analytics-releases-its-2020-energy-outlook/ -
Seeongi tegelikult uue tõusu laine põhjus, et finantsiliselt on paljud tootjad suure võla otsas ja ära kurnatud. Kogu see suur kasv on tulnud võlgadesse kaevamise teel ja cash flow on olnud paljudel aastaid negatiivne.
Those throwing the stones need to look at the bigger picture, specifically that the call on shale gas is growing, while most energy basins are uneconomic producers at today's prices. -
Allikas jäi panemata https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312416-southwestern-energy-misunderstood-natural-gas-producer
Ikka jõhker, kus tootja aktsia hinnad on selle protsessi käigus kolakat saanud. Õigel ajal võtjat valides võib siit tulla 5-10x. -
Äripäevast "Washington, kes on üritanud leida võimalust müüa rohkem LNG-gaasi Euroopa riikidele, on öelnud, et Nord Stream 2 muudaks Euroopa liiga sõltuvaks Venemaa varudest. Gazprom täidab juba praegu ligikaudu kolmandiku Euroopa gaasivajadusest."
Tegelikult on olukord Ameerikas väga masendav, gaasi hind on võrreldes eelmise aastaga -50%, LNG hinnad põhjas, ilm soe, isegi Hiinal pole seda enam kuhugi toppida ja arvatakse, et toodang veelgi suureneb. Kõik gaasi firmad künnavad põhjasid, hetkel seal gaasi hind 2,3 juures, samas kui paljudel puhtalt gaasi tootjate omahind 2,75.
Kes veel ei tea, siis 1m3 LNG sisse mahub ca 600m3 gaasi. Siin ka see Trumpi vastuseid 2 torule, asi pole kellegi turvalisuses, vaid Ameerika FIRST. -
Sakslased on ennast ilusti nurka värvinud energia osas. Samas, kostmas on ka mässuhääli järjest rohkem tuumaenergia säilitamise poolt.
Times: "Business leaders and conservative politicians have begun to demand a stay of execution amid soaring energy costs and a looming shortfall in capacity. Germany will have to replace more than 40% of its electricity sources over the next two decades. Coal still accounts for 1/3+ of its generation, with the 7 remaining nuclear plants supplying about a tenth.-- Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen, the country’s largest company, has pleaded for an extension. He is supported by the Werte-Union, a right-wing pressure group in Mrs Merkel’s CDU, which argues that Germany cannot substantially cut its carbon emissions without prolonging the life of the nuclear power stations. -- Markus Söder, 52, the chief minister of Bavaria, called for “fundamental considerations” about the consequences of giving up coal and nuclear at the same time. At the CDU’s conference last month Friedrich Merz, 64, a perennial candidate for the party leadership, also criticised the high cost of the energy transition." -
Täna võib gaasi sektoris korralik pauk toimuda alla, gaas -4% ja nafta ka all, ei imestaks , kui AR taas 2,5$
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NAgWulXR/ -
Kaua sa ikka vaenlast toetad, ega muidu seda U.S tootmist ka ei pidurda.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-production/russias-novak-says-opec-may-consider-easing-oil-output-caps-in-march-idUSKBN1YR0PF -
Gaas tegi 27.12.2019 põhjade põhja (äkki langeb veel, kes teab) hind 2.14$.
Ladu
Today’s EIA weekly nat gas storage report printed a draw of -161 Bcf, larger than market expectations of -153 Bcf and larger than the 5-year average of -101 Bcf. The build decreased supplies to 3,250 Bcf and increased deficits to -69 Bcf.
Ilm
Dec 27-Jan 3: Strong high pressure will dominate much of the US through the weekend with above than normal conditions as highs reach the 40s to 70s, warmest over the southern US. The West will be unsettled with rain and snow showers, while the N. Plains will be the only truly cold area with highs of 20s and 30s, but over very low population states. A cold shot will push into the central US early next week with lows of 10s to 30s, then into the Northeast Dec 31. Overall, very light national demand through the weekend, then moderate early next week. -
Exports to Europe have surged by +29.4% this year to 6.4 mln tonnes – Europe now receives 15% of U.S. LPG exports.
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Siin pikemalt lahatud mu eelmisi väiteid: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/what-to-expect-from-oil-and-gas-companies-in-2020/
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Shale boom running on fumes. Shale wells are not producing as much oil and gas as previously thought, which raises questions about the industry’s productivity, profitability and the longevity of the drilling boom. Wells drilled years ago have declined faster than expected, according to a new report.
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Gaasi ennustus päris must, huvitav, millal U.S nafta tootmine reaalselt kukkuma hakkab, kui puurtornide arv sedasi langeb? Sealne nafta tootmisega kaasneb kõrval produktina gaas ja kuna pakkumine ületab nõudlust, lisaks soojad ilmad, siis hind ikka täiesti sodi gaasil.
Spot gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell 19% to average $2.56 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2019. Analysts project that average will fall to around $2.31 in 2020, which would be its lowest since 1999.
1 MMBtu = 28.263682 m3 of natural gas - 2,56/28=0,09 dollari senti
Eestis:0.226 €/m3 -
Täna peaks nafta ja gaasi aktsiad kenasti kukkuma, gaasi hind ja nafta korraga langevad.
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Kliima soojeneb igapool. 10-25°F warmer than normal. -US sama nagu meill, kütet kulub vähem.
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Hea näide Hiina avatud kaubandusest, jutt madalast 0,5% väävli sisaldusega kütusest.
. Over the next 12 months around 1 million barrels per day production of this new compliant fuel could come into play. This output is important, but it's also important to stress that it will not be available on the world's markets to buy but only available to Chinese shippers. -
Hiinal lihtsalt ei ole seda madala väävlisisaldusega kütust maailmale pakkuda, kuna Hiina töötlejad ei ole suutnud maksude tõttu konkureerida Singapuri ja L-Korea turuga, seetõttu pole üritatudki. Jaanuaris 2020 võttis Hiina vastu otsuse, et vähendab tootjate makse, kuid nende valmisolek kohe madala väävlisisaldusega kütust tootma hakate ei juhtu kohe, selleks on vaja seadeid, seadistamist jms. Ning esialgu eelistatakse seetüttu kohalikku turgu.
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Kas U.S tootmine saab uue trendi, reedene raport näitas vähenemise märke, täna EIA ladu tõusis väiksema tarbimise tulemusel 7,5M. Väga imelik on vaadata, et analüütikud enamuse ajast ei suuda ühte nädalat ka õigesti ennustada ja siis tehakse tarbimise nõudluse kohta ennustusi seoses viiruse levikuga.
Crude inventories rose by 7.5 million barrels in the week to Feb. 7 to 435 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 million-barrel rise.
OPEC said it expects a significant slowdown in US production growth, which it revised down by 166,000 b/d from last month’s estimate, due to “independent shale oil companies facing financial challenges and a slowdown in drilling and well completion.” US output is now forecast to grow 1.26 million b/d year on year.
OPEC as a whole produced 28.86 million b/d in January, a fall of 510,000 b/d from December, according to an average of the six secondary sources used by the organization to track output.
Libya was responsible for the bulk of the fall, with its production contracting by 344,000 b/d, due to a blockade on its oil ports imposed by opposition militias. -
AR ja AM tulemused. Ja nii need U.S omad pumpavad, vahet pole mis turu hind
Net marketing expense is forecast to be $0.10 to $0.12 per Mcfe, an $0.11 decline from 2019
Natural gas production guidance is 94% hedged at $2.87/MMBtu
Estimated oil and oil-equivalent production of 26,000 Bbl/d (pentanes are hedged to WTI) is 100% hedged in 2020 at $55.63/Bbl
In simple terms, we have reduced our total well cost per foot from $970 in the initial 2019 budget to a target of $795 to $825 per for 2020. The result is a 10% reduction in drilling and completion capital and a 28% reduction in lease operating expense as compared to 2019, while delivering production growth of 9% -
AR
See homme meeldib turule, esimesed märgid võla vähendamisest, oma ime epsi saavad järgmine kvartal nii veel 0 peale.
Antero repurchased $225 million principal amount of senior unsecured notes during the fourth quarter at a 17% weighted average discount price, including both its 2021 and 2022 senior notes. The repurchases reduced Antero's total debt by $37 million and net interest expense was reduced by $6 million on an annualized basis. Antero also repurchased 8.3 million shares of common stock during the fourth quarter at a weighted average price of $2.50 per share. -
Ilusad pildid ja algajale kindlasti huvitav lugeda. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/u-s-natural-gas-consumption-has-both-winter-and-summer-peaks/
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Natural gas prices fall to lowest level since 2016, the lowest February prices in 20 years - hea uudis LNG laeva omanikele.
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Visahing, ilusad pildid NG tarbimise kohta. Aga vaatame tootmismahtude muutuseid ka:
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Angelp ma pidasin silmas laeva omanikena nagu Tallink, kes on tarbijad, et soodengaasi hind jätkub.
Samas 5 aasta ladu ei ole nii tipus, nagu see tootmine
Today’s EIA weekly nat gas storage report printed a draw of -115 Bcf, nearly 5 Bcf larger than market expectations of -110 Bcf. It was smaller than the 5-year average -131 Bcf, increasing surpluses +215. The build decreased supplies to 2,494 Bcf. Next week’s report will show a near normal draw by our estimates.
https://www.natgasweather.com/ graafik all paremala kerides. -
Kes tahab ilmateate ja gaasivarude kohta igasuguseid diagramme ja graafikuid näha, siis selle jaoks on veel see leht.
http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/near-term-natural-gas-inventories.html -
Hakkab põhja treidi moodi tunduma AM 4,41 pealt order sisse.
Otseselt ost pole saabunud macd põhjal, aga nagu ikka, veidi varem kui võiks https://www.tradingview.com/x/oPVs937i/
Oilprices väga palju positiivseid uudiseid olnud, üks nendest https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Pledges-1B-To-Europe-To-Help-It-Cut-Russia-Energy-Dependence.html -
See uudis tuli eile, taas sattusin otsa ja ma pakun, et gaasi hinna ralli selles
Qatar Delays Mooted LNG Projects. Reuters has reported that Qatar has postponed its North Field Expansion Project by 3-9 months, just several months after it announced its willingness to launch it together with Western majors like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) or Shell (NYSE:RDS). The root cause of the delay lies in coronavirus depressing Asian demand, further aggravating the ongoing LNG supply glut which has already sent US LNG prices into record lows.
