Börsipäev 30. märts - kvartalilõpu mängud

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  • -Futuurid miinuses S&P 500 3 punkti Nasdaq 10 punkti. Tähelepanu on koondatud kell 10.00 ET avaldatavale tarbijausaldusindeksile.

    -Pepsico (PEP) rõõmustas eile õhtul investoreid teatega, et ootab esimeselt kvartalilt prognoositust paremaid majandustulemusi ning kogu 2004. aasta tulemus peaks kujunema prognooside ülemisse otsa. Kogu aasta kasum aktsia kohta peaks küündima 2.29 dollarini. Ka dividende tõsteti 64 sendilt 92 sendile aktsia kohta. eelturul aktsia 2.2% plussis.

    -Põhja Ameerika suurim toiduainetetootja Kraft Foods (KFT) teatas, et ostab karastusjookide tootja Veryfine Products.

    Rev Shark:

    After big moves yesterday and last week, the question we now have to confront is whether or not the indices can stick. Can the bulls hold on to recent gains and eventually move things higher? Are the ingredients in place for a continued change in trend, or will the bounce fail and leave disappointed buyers in its wake? 

    The action yesterday presented a number of interesting elements to contemplate. Obviously, the big point move was a major positive, but volume left something to be desired. The major indices all remain under their 50-day simple moving averages, which is a technical negative, and the Nasdaq is running into resistance at the 2000 level. Weakness in financials, particularly brokerage stocks such as Morgan Stanley (MWD:NYSE) and Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE), is troubling. 

    On the other hand, the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks (RUT) pierced its 50-day moving average and has little overhead to deal with until it hits recent highs. That is a big positive for small-caps. Strong small-cap action is a good sign of underlying positive sentiment. When the bulls are comfortable buying the speculative stocks that bodes well for the broader market. 

    Conventional technical analysis wisdom says to be suspicious of V-shaped moves like the one we have now. Indices generally do not move in a straight line after they reverse. The chances of a pullback are very high as folks with shorter-term frames who caught the bounce take profits, move into cash and wait for new entry points. 

    The real test of whether this turnaround is real depends on what happens when we pull back. Do the buyers run for the hills and let things fall apart? Or do they take advantage of lower prices and deploy more capital? How anxious are they to buy the dip? 

    One advantage for the bulls right now is the potential for positive catalysts. The first is the jobs report on Friday. I'm a bit concerned that a good report is being overanticipated, and we'll have to see how we set up as the report date approaches. Nonetheless, a good jobs report will have a wide variety of ramifications, both politically and economically. 

    A more important catalyst is the upcoming earnings season. So far the earnings preannouncement period has been unusually quiet. Expectations for reports seem to be fairly reasonable, and that has great potential if we see some solid reports. 

    I'm focusing right now on stocks that I feel have good fundamentals, that have pulled back during the recent market dip and should solidify as earnings reports approach. A lot of good stocks have been hit quite hard over the last couple months, and they should begin to work higher as investors regain confidence in their business prospects. I'm looking for stocks that have found some support and are starting to attract increased volume. 

    I'm bullish about a number of individual stocks, but the indices are now somewhat extended and primed to pull back a bit. I feel the pullback will be fairly mild as investors anticipate a solid earnings season. Unless we really sell off hard on big volume, I will maintain a bullish bias into earnings season. 

    In the early going, terrorist arrests in London have caused some early pressure on the indices. OPEC's announcement that it intends to cut oil production and keep prices high is also a negative weighing on the market this morning. We have the March Consumer Confidence report due out at 10 a.m. EST, which is likely to cause a hiccup or two. 

    We have a shaky start, but given the big move this market has made since last Wednesday, a little rest and digestion would be a good thing as long as it doesn't go too far.

    Gary B. Smith:


  • Viimasel ajal on trend olnud selline, et päeva algused väga tugevad ja päeva lõpud nõrgad. See ei ole just hea kombinatsioon jätkusuutlikuks tõusuks, vastupidi oleks parem.

    Täna oleme alustamas miinuses ja pullidel hea võimalus plussis lõpetamisega asja parandada.
  • volatiilsus on imemadal, samas kui suured uudised tulekul..
    what is the catch-o-fish?
  • Hirm on kadunud, kohe panen ka ühe väga ilmeka pildi.
  • Selle uudise peale vist PTN-i tõus: Coverage initiated on Palatin Technologies by CIBC Wrld Mkts
  • Allpool toodud graafikul on võrreldud VIXi ja S&P 500 (sinine joon) liikumist alates märtsi algusest. Kui turg (S&P 500) hakkas kukkuma märtsi esimeses pooles, siis volatiilsus hakkas tõusma. See on väga loogiline liikumine, hirm (volatiilsus) ikka tõuseb kui turg langeb.

    Ning kui turg hakkas eelmisel nädalal tõusma, siis volatiilsus hakkas langema. Taas loogiline tandem.

    AGA: kui volatiilsus kukkus praktiliselt märtsi põhjade juurde, siis turg on veel märtsi tippudest väga kaugel. Seega hirm on väga kiiresti turult kadunud, kuid hinnad pole nii kiiresti järgi tõusnud. See reeglina on turule negatiivne signaal - liiga optimistlikud ootused.

  • Eest ära, Warnaco (WRNC) tuleb! Tuletan meelde, et TP on $22ish

  • The March Consumer Confidence number came in at 88.3, vs. expectations of 83. That's up from a revised number of 87.3 in February. That news was sufficient to push the major indices into the green

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