Börsipäev 6. aprill - Nokia kasumihoiatus!

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  • Nokia avaldas värskelt kasumihoiatuse, aktsia langes 17.50 EUR kandist 15.12 EUR juurde ja on nüüd kosumas taas ...

    Üldjuhul on Nokia sarnastele uudistele järgnenud ülereaktsioonid andnud häid ostukohti ...
  • Nokia mõjul on all ka Elcoteqi ja Perlose aktsiad allakäiguteel, sama Ericsson jne. jne.
  • Täielik börsiteate tekst ....

    Nokia expects its first quarter 2004 reported EPS to be EUR 0.17
    (meets guidance) and net sales to decline 2% year over year (below

    Helsinki, Finland - Nokia today announced that its first quarter 2004
    net sales will be below guidance. Nokia's net sales for the first
    quarter 2004 are estimated to be EUR 6.6 billion, representing a
    decline of 2% compared to the first quarter 2003 (vs. guidance of up 3
    - 7%). The company expects to meet its reported earnings per share
    (diluted) guidance with the EPS estimated to be EUR 0.17 (vs. guidance
    of EUR 0.17 - 0.19).

    Sales of the Mobile Phones and Multimedia business groups were below
    expectations. Mobile Phones sales declined in Europe and Asia due to
    lower than expected volumes and a product mix weighted more towards
    the low end. Due to certain gaps in its product portfolio, mainly in
    the mid range, the company was not able to fully capitalize on
    positive market developments. Global mobile phone volume growth is
    estimated to have been in excess of 25% in the first quarter 2004
    while Nokia volumes grew by 19%. Networks exceeded expectations with
    estimated sales of EUR 1.4 billion, which represents 16% growth
    compared to the sales in the first quarter 2003. Enterprise Solutions
    is expected to report sales slightly better than planned.

    Mobile Phones profitability continued at an excellent level. However,
    lower than expected volumes and the product mix negatively impacted
    Mobile Phones' sales and operating profit. At the same time, the
    operating margin of Multimedia is expected to be above plan due to a
    favorable product mix.  In addition to sales, the operating margin of
    Networks is expected to be healthy and to exceed the company's
    expectations. The operating margin of Enterprise Solutions is expected
    to be slightly better than planned.

    "Obviously, we are not satisfied with our sales development during the
    first quarter, but I am pleased that once again we have managed to
    achieve good, solid profitability.  We are particularly pleased with
    the sales and profitability development in the Networks' business. The
    overall Nokia sales were negatively impacted because we were not able
    to fully exploit the usual seasonal market pick up in March, and the
    Mobile Phones product mix was weighted towards the low end. Although
    we are already starting to see the long-term benefits of the new
    organization, in the short term its implementation slightly slowed
    down our reactions and operational effectiveness," said Jorma Ollila,
    Nokia Chairman and CEO.  "With the new organization in place, we will
    continue to build on our core strengths of brand, demand-supply chain
    management and cost leadership - while driving further efficiencies in
    research and development.  While our product portfolio in the first
    quarter was not at its strongest, we believe that during the year we
    will see improvement as we bring new products to market."

    Nokia will announce the full first quarter results together with the
    second quarter outlook on April 16, 2004.

    A conference call for investors is scheduled for 3:30 PM Helsinki
    time, 1:30 PM London time, 8:30 AM New York time on April 6, 2004.
    Investors based in the US: +1 888 636 1561
    Investors based outside of the US: +44 1452 560 299
    Media: +1 706 634 5012

    It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not
    historical facts, including, without limitation, those regarding:  A)
    the timing of product and solution deliveries; B) our ability to
    develop, implement and commercialize new products, solutions and
    technologies; C) expectations regarding market growth, developments
    and structural changes; D) expectations and targets for our results of
    operations; and E) statements preceded by ''believe,'' ''expect,''
    ''anticipate,'' ''foresee'' or similar expressions are forward-looking
    statements.  Because these statements involve risks and uncertainties,
    actual results may differ materially from the results that we
    currently expect. Factors that could cause these differences include,
    but are not limited to:  1) developments in the mobile communications
    industry and the broader mobility industry, including the development
    of the mobile software and services market, as well as industry
    consolidation and other structural changes; 2) timing and success of
    the introduction and roll out of new products and solutions; 3) demand
    for and market acceptance of our products and solutions; 4) the impact
    of changes in technology and the success of our product and solution
    development; 5) the intensity of competition in the mobility industry
    and changes in the competitive landscape; 6) our ability to control
    the variety of factors affecting our ability to reach our targets and
    give accurate forecasts; 7) pricing pressures; 8) the availability of
    new products and services by network operators and other market
    participants; 9) general economic conditions globally and in our most
    important markets; 10) our success in maintaining efficient
    manufacturing and logistics as well as the high quality of our
    products and solutions; 11) inventory management risks resulting from
    shifts in market demand; 12) our ability to source quality components
    without interruption and at acceptable prices; 13) our success in
    collaboration arrangements relating to technologies, software or new
    products and solutions; 14) the success, financial condition, and
    performance of our collaboration partners, suppliers and customers;
    15) any disruption to information technology systems and networks that
    our operations rely on; 16) our ability to have access to the complex
    technology involving patents and other intellectual property rights
    included in our products and solutions at commercially acceptable
    terms and without infringing any protected intellectual property
    rights; 17) developments under large, multi-year contracts or in
    relation to major customers; 18) the management of our customer
    financing exposure; 19) exchange rate fluctuations, including, in
    particular, fluctuations between the euro, which is our reporting
    currency, and the US dollar, the UK pound sterling and the Japanese
    yen; 20) our ability to recruit, retain and develop appropriately
    skilled employees; 21) our ability to implement our new organizational
    structure; and 22) the impact of changes in government policies, laws
    or regulations; as well as 23) the risk factors specified on pages 12
    to 21 of the company's Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2003
    under "Item 3.D Risk Factors."

  • EPS 0,17 on varasema ennustuse alumisse äärde, 0,17-0,19 ja nokia ootab käibe kahanemist 2% v6rra, varasem ennustus kasv 3-7%.
    käive tuleb väiksem kuna r6hk läheb yha enam odavamatele telefonidele.
  • kus sa seda näed? mitte et ma ei usuks.. miski tasuta sait? (c:
  • Tasuta saad jälgida www.nasdaq.com pre-market quotes ja ka Island (vaata LHV avalehelt). Ma jälgin Traderis.
  • -USA turgudele peaks negatiivset mõju avaldama Nokia käibehoiatus, esimene suurem löök sellel majandustulemuste perioodil. Samas  võib mõju jääda väikeseks, sest tegemist võib olla firma probleemiga, mitte tööstusharu omaga.

    -Nokia (NOK) andis käibehoiatuse, prognoosides esimese kvartali käibe languseks 2%, samas kui oodati käibe 3 kuni 7% kasvu (ehk olid ootused suuremadki). Lisaks on Nokia kaotanud ka turuosa ehk turg kasvas esimeses kvartalis 25%, Nokia vaid 19%. Samas prognoosib firma esimese kvartali kasumiks 17 senti ehk varasemate prognooside alumisse äärde.  Nokia USA eelturul 15% miinuses 17.8 dollari juures, sellist kukkumist võiks siiski pidada ülereageeringuks. Motorola eelturul 5% miinuses.

    -Nokia uudise all kannatavad ka teised telekomiseadmete tootjad ning allhankijad RF Microdevices (RFMD) eelturul -5%, Lucent (LU)  -1%, Nortel (NT)-2.5%.

    -Viimasel ajal suure tähelepanu osaliseks saanud otsingumootor Mamma.com (MAMA) on SEC uurimise objektiks ning põhjuseks viimasel ajal järsult kasvanud kauplemisaktiivsus. Eelturul -7%.

    Rev Shark:

    There are many publications, Web sites and television channels dedicated to analyzing and dissecting the stock market. A man of thought can ponder endlessly what may happen and why. The interplay of economics and psychology make for great intellectual exercise. 

    But it is the man of action who profits the most from the market. The ability to grab the opportunities that arise as the pundits and gurus contemplate the big picture and the meaning of various events is what separates the big market winners from the pack. 

    Yes, we need to study and understand the forces that are moving the market but we can't allow analysis to prevent us from action. It is only through action that we will ever prosper. We will never be able to eliminate all risk no matter how hard we contemplate, so we sometimes must simply act and risk the consequences. 

    Since the big jobs report Friday the market pundits have been out in full force with predictions of where things are headed. If you forget the analysis and simply look at recent market action it is clear that the big money is being made in the small-cap sector. The Russell 2000 index of small stocks is now at almost the same point it was at the peak of the bubble in 2000. The index topped out at 614 back then and we are at 606 right now. 

    If you have spent your time focusing on overvaluation of the market, economic issues and the irrationality of the bulls, you have missed some exceptional opportunities. Sure, we need to think about what we are doing, but it is only through action that we stand to reap profits. 

    In the early going we have some rather sedate action. Asian markets continue their recent strength while European markets are struggling. The dollar is mixed, gold up and oil down. 

    Alcoa (AA:NYSE) kicks off the earnings season tonight with Research in Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) tomorrow. The bulk of earnings reports don't start until next week but these early reports should provide us with some insight into the mood of market participants. 

    We had a number of earnings warnings last night from some smaller companies. Brooktrout (BRKT:Nasdaq), Omnicell (OMCL:Nasdaq), Safenet (SFNT:Nasdaq), Nuance Communications (NUAN:Nasdaq) and SeeBeyond (SBYN:Nasdaq) all guided lower and are trading down. Still, the earnings warnings season has been unusually quiet. 

    Almost everyone feels this market is due for a rest but Mr. Market isn't paying much attention. We'll see if he frustrates the conventional thinking once again.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Black & Decker (BDK) tõstis täna analüütikute kiuste, kes olid täna hommikul aksia reitingut alandanud, jällegi kasumiprognoose esimeseks kvartaliks. Usun, et aktsiad on saavutanud täna oma õiglase väärtuse ning soovitan positsioonist väljuda. (LHV Pro valik). @ 59.50

  • Lähema nädala-pooleteise jooksul võib sellised Nokia laadseid üllatusi veel tulla, käimas on veel otsapidi kasumihoiatuste periood.

    Miks siis Nokia nii palju kukkus? Sest turul oli viimasel ajal kosta ootusi, et Nokia (NOK) hoopis tõstab prognoose enne majandustulemusi. Seega ootused olid väga kõrged (vt. tänane Avalöök). Kuigi Nokia tundub turuosa olevat kaotanud, on minu meelest üsna mõistlik ostukoht aktsias.
  • aga kristjan mis sa nagu üldisemalt nendest ootustest arvad?
    aasta alguse korrektsioon tõi nagu hinnad vähe maapeale tagasi?
  • Ootused nüüd madalad just küll ei ole, sest viimased paar nädalat on üsna võimsalt rallitud.
  • Muuseas, üks strateegia mida plaanin enne majandustulemusi rakendada on straddle võtmine enne majandustulemusi. Selle vahega, et müün straddle vahetult enne majandustulemusi maha. Loogika on lihtne - kuna ebakindlus enne majandustulemusi tõuseb, siis kosub kiiresti ka volatiilsus.

    Heaks näiteks on Yahoo! (YHOO), kes tuleb tulemustega homme peale börsi. Kui veel eelmisel nädalal oli Apr 50 optsioonide volatiilsus 40 juures, siis esmaspäevaks oli see juba 45 ja tänaseks 53. Ilmselt võib homme õhtuks tõusta isegi 60 juurde.

    Ajastamine üsna oluline siin, aga reeglina kasulik osta kusagil 3-4 börsipäeva enne tulemusi ja kui võimalik siis nädalavahetust mitte sisse jätta.

    LHV Traderi kasutajad saavad kõikide optsioonide volatiilsust reaalajas jälgida kui lisavad kauplemisaknas rea "kaubeldav volatiilsus".
  • kas keegi nüüd seletaks täpsemalt kuidas optsioonilepingu hind 79 senti on
  • Ülaltoodud straddle kohta veel veidi numbreid - kui eelmisel nädalal oleks positsiooni soetamine maksnud umbes 330 USD, siis täna saab juba müüa hinnaga 365 USD ja homme ehk isegi 390-400 USD. Seega vaatamata spreadile on võimalik sellega teenida.

    Eelkõige tasub just otsida spekulatiivsemaid ja ebaselgemate tulemustega ettevõtteid.
  • mitte, et ma tahaks, et Sa Kristjan kõik töö minu eest ära teeks aga...

    vihjeid vihjeid, numbreid jne... :D
  • Tiit, see nädal pikk nädalavahetus ja seega ilmselt see nädal veel väga midagi teha pole. Järgmisel nädalal annan kindlasti ka konkreetsetest valikutest teada.
  • Oskab keegi oelda,mis TASR-ga toimub?
  • Täiesti pöörane aktsia, ei tea mitmes split juba. Aktsia on aastaga tõusnud üle 5000%!
  • Ja kõigi eelduste kohaselt tõuseb veel - ei takista teda võimalikud hagid väidetavalt seadme põhjustatud surmade pinnalt ega fundamentaali taustal täiesti ridikjulõs aktsia hind. Aga neile, kes õigel ajal raha alla panid - päris kena teenistus $10 000 -> $500 000.
  • ei teagi,mis seda elukat TASR peatama sunnib,vahepeal nagu ilmutaks norkuse m2rke,aga siis teine p2ev on j2lle t2ielik ralli.
  • ma just motlesin,et nees,kes TASRI hoiavad on juba megakasumites ja stopid kaugel ja pole myymisest huvitatud.Samas lisandub veel rongile onneotsijaid +massiline short covering.
    Teoreetiliselt peaks siis aktisa hind lopmatusse minema??
  • http://www.postimees.ee/070404/online_uudised/131081.php


    kõik papp pensiokatele!
  • TTN possible short here.

    Nüüd lepiti kokku, et LMT ostab TTN-i $20 eest per aktsia. Siiski keegi ei tea, kas USA valitsus annab TTN-i vanad patud firmale andeks. Kui ei anna, siis deal is off ning TTN kaupleb $12 juurde tagasi.

    0.45 cent "downside" ja $7 "updside".



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