Börsipäev 13.aprill

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  • Elcoteq andis positiivse kasumihoiatuse, käive €620M ja kasum €10M.
  • "teatas oodatud suuremast käibest ja kasumist" äkki? :)
  • -Tänane eelhäälestus on taas positiivne. Nasdaqi futuurid 0.5% plussis, S&P 500 futuurid 0.4% plussis. Positiivset algust toetav jaekaubandusstatistika, mille järgi kavas USA jaemüük märtsis 1.8%, mis on nelja aasta parim näitaja. Ilma autode müügita kerkis jaemüük 1.7%.

    -USA dollar suutis murda 1.2 usd/eur taseme ning seda eelkõige tänu tugevatele jaekaubandusmüügi näitajatele. Euro vastu on dollar tugevnenud päevaga 1.1% tasemeni 1.194 usd/eur.

    -Heade kvartalitulemustega tuli välja Merill Lynch (MER) ja Dow komponentidest Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Merill Lynch`i kasum kerkis 1.3 miljardi dollarini (aasta tagasi 643 miljonit). Firma kasum kerkis 27%.

    -Johnson & Johnnson (JNJ)esimese kvartali kasum kerkis 2.5 miljardi dollarini (aasta tagasi 2.07 miljardit). Firma tulud kasvasid aastatagusega võrreldes 18% 11.6 miljardile dollarile.

    -Pooljuhtide sektoris avaldas eile järelturul majandustulemused Novellus (NVLS), firma tulemused olid oodatust paremad. Täna õhtul avaldab oma majandustulemused Intel (INTC).

    Rev Shark:

    Over the last five trading days, the indices have done little as volume has steadily fallen. There are some who view this lack of progress as a negative. After all, we had some good earnings and economic news, yet the market has failed to respond. If things were good, shouldn't this market stay on a steady upward trek?

    But if we step back and look at the bigger picture, it is clear that this action is exactly what the bulls need. The Nasdaq had a huge bounce off its 200-day simple moving average at 1900. After moving over 150 points, it is extremely important that the gains be digested. As the short-term profit-takers exit, stock moves into the hands of new, stronger holders. This basing action is what sets the stage for another leg up.

    I've pointed out numerous times over the past week that despite the fairly flat action, there continue to be some very big moves in groups of small-caps. There are some who simply view the speculative action as outrageous behavior by ignorant traders who are doomed to eventually loose all their capital. They argue that this overconfidence bodes poorly for the broader market.

    My take is different. I believe that when there are traders who are bold enough and confident enough to take aggressive action that is symptomatic of an underlying positive sentiment in the broader market. We always have a few aggressive risk-takers out there, but when we see the supply expand like we have recently, that points to a developing psychology in the broader market of more willingness to buy.

    High levels of speculation can be a warning sign when the indices are making parabolic moves like they did in the spring of 2000, but that is not the case now. The indices are sitting sedately while small groups of traders take aggressive action in select groups. I believe it is likely that the rather limited speculative fever will slowly work itself into the broader market and move us to new highs.

    In the present market environment, I have found that the best approach is to simply take action. There are times when a more passive approach is the way to go, but lately there have been good profits to be made by acting boldly and aggressively. The market can turn on us quickly, but presently there is a big supply of traders out there searching for some action. If you spot their targets early on, you can enjoy a tremendous ride.

    The focus of this market is now going to shift to earnings. Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) reported solid quarters this morning, but it is Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) that will have the greatest impact on the market when it reports after the close tonight.

    I don't know how Intel will turn out, but the recent speculative action makes me think there are buyers out there looking for excuses to put more money to work. Bold, aggressive action is paying off, but it carries some heavy risks as well.

    We have a positive open setting up. Earning reports have been good so far. Overseas markets are mixed, with Asia backing off from new highs while European bourses moved higher on oil stocks and a stronger dollar. Gold and oil are trading down as the dollar finds good strength this morning.

    Get ready to rumble. We should have some interesting trading.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Päeva algus on üsna nõrk olnud, seda vaatamata positiivsetele teguritele päeva alguses (makro, tulemused), ühetig uudist müügi taga ei paista, ilmselt võtavad turuosalised lihtsalt kasumit.
  • Intel (INTC) vastas üsna täpselt oodatule ja kuigi esmase reaktsioonina käis aktsia närviliselt üles-alla, on praegu üsna sulgemishinna lähedal stabiliseerunud.

    16:25 INTC Intel beats on EPS, ex items, revs miss, guides revs in line (27.67 +0.07)

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.28 per share, excluding a $0.017 charge, rounding up this is $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.27; revenues rose 19.8% year/year to $8.09 bln vs the $8.17 bln consensus. Company sees Q2 revenues of $7.6-8.2 bln, consensus $8.1 bln, sees gross margins of approximately 60.2%, which is generally being regarded as better than expectations. The company's capital spending expectation for 2004 is unchanged at between $3.6 billion and $4.0 billion.

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